Study Guide Joint Cabinet Crisis: South China Sea 2030 - History of Asia-Pacific 2019-2030 - EuroMUN
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2nd – 5th of May 2019
Study Guide
Joint Cabinet Crisis: South China Sea 2030
History of Asia-Pacific 2019-2030
Table of Contents
JOINT CABINET CRISIS: SOUTH CHINA SEA 2030 ............................................................................................. 1
HISTORY OF ASIA-PACIFIC 2019-2030 .................................................................................................................... 1
WELCOME LETTER ............................................................................................................................................ 4
EUROMUN 2019 CRISIS: SOUTH CHINA SEA 2030 ........................................................................................... 6
2020S TIMELINE................................................................................................................................................ 9
CHINA .............................................................................................................................................................. 11
THE THREE RULING CLASSES ................................................................................................................................. 13
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: LOOKING INWARDS ....................................................................................... 15
U.S ELECTIONS IN THE 2020S ............................................................................................................................... 15
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IN THE 2020S ............................................................................................................... 17
EAST ASIA: UNIFICATION AND MILITARISATION ............................................................................................ 18
KOREA ............................................................................................................................................................... 18
JAPAN................................................................................................................................................................ 19
TAIWAN ............................................................................................................................................................. 19
ASEAN: A CLOSER UNION OF COMPETING INTERESTS .................................................................................. 20
CLIMATE SOLIDARITY PACT ................................................................................................................................... 20
EXCHANGE MECHANISM (AEM) ........................................................................................................................... 22
ESTABLISHMENT OF DEFENSE-FOREIGN AFFAIRS COUNCIL ........................................................................................ 23
MYANMAR, LAOS AND CAMBODIA: THE PRO-CHINA VOTES ...................................................................................... 24
WORLD OUTSIDE ASIA .................................................................................................................................... 26
SOCIETY LEADING UP TO 2030 ....................................................................................................................... 29
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NAVAL SOVEREIGNTY AND A NEW NATURE OF WARFARE ON THE SEA ......................................................................... 29
CONFRONTATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA .......................................................................................................... 29
THE NEW NATURE OF NAVAL WARFARE ................................................................................................................. 30
UNCLOS AND CUSTOMARY INTERNATIONAL LAW ................................................................................................... 33
SOVEREIGNTY CLAIMS .......................................................................................................................................... 37
BIG DATA AND SURVEILLANCE ............................................................................................................................... 38
FINANCIALISATION AND TECH BOOM...................................................................................................................... 40
URBANIZATION, CLIMATE AND POPULISM ............................................................................................................... 42
URBANIZATION ................................................................................................................................................... 42
CLIMATE ............................................................................................................................................................ 43
POPULISM .......................................................................................................................................................... 43
RACE FOR RESOURCES: WATER, FOOD, AND ENERGY ............................................................................................... 45
CHINA AND THE RACE FOR RESOURCES ................................................................................................................... 45
THE US, MIDDLE EAST, AND CHINA ....................................................................................................................... 45
CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 47
REFERENCES & ADDITIONAL RESOURCES ...................................................................................................... 49
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunWelcome Letter from the Secretariat
Dear Delegates,
The EuroMUN 2019 Secretariat would like to warmly welcome you to the 11th edition of this
conference. We are excited to provide an academically challenging experience which will motivate you
to engage in insightful discussion while exploring our lovely city through the planned social program.
Hopefully, you will enjoy the various events that will accompany the sessions, such as our talent night,
our delegate’s ball and our scavenger hunt through the city.
Our conference attracts individuals from over fifty nations to the city of Maastricht. This means that
you will encounter points of view that will be very dissimilar to your own. See this conference as an
opportunity to push yourself outside of your comfort zone, alongside people who might seem
different, but at their core, just like you, are looking to expand their horizons beyond what they are
confronted with at home. Be respectful but don’t be afraid to challenge your beliefs and have them
challenged in return. EuroMUN is a forum for discussion: take advantage of it, challenge yourself.
The slogan for this year’s edition of EuroMUN is: Exploring the European Idea.
The European Idea is not geographically limited, but it refers to the goals of European integration. It
demonstrates a move away from wide-scale disputes and towards collaboration. Every institution,
organization, body, and committee represented at EuroMUN reflects the same idea: the will to work
together instead of against each other. That is what is at the core of this notion.
On that premise, the secretariat would like to pose the following question to you: What does the
European Idea mean to you? Is it being connected through a common history? Or is it about staying
united through adversity, change and the distinct characteristics of our culturally rich community?
Maastricht, the city where the Treaty on European Union was signed, provides the perfect backdrop
to explore this concept. As the university hosts a diverse community of students from all over the world
it truly demonstrates the possibilities the move towards collaboration can bring to the individual and
the community. While we might not always fully appreciate the former, the benefits are not to be
taken for granted. The environment in Maastricht and the assembly of delegates permit EuroMUN,
now for the 11th time to provide this unique experience. Without each of these components, it would
be impossible to replicate.
We hope that you enjoy your time at the European Model United Nations Conference 2019.
When in doubt: #fruitful
The EuroMUN Secretariat
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunWelcome Letter from the Crisis Team
Dear Delegates,
On behalf of the entire crisis team we would like to warmly welcome you to our Joint Cabinet Crisis
which will revolve around South China Sea in the year 2030. This crisis is designed for all range of
delegates, be this your first-time discovering the world of Model United Nations and Crisis, or if this is
your twenty-fifth time plotting schemes to grab power and dominate the alternate world as we know.
We would like to thank you for being part of this ambitious crisis project, which we hope to integrate
all the aspects of day-to-day government decision-making and urgent scenarios where variety of
choices you made could pan out wildly differently. The focus of this Crisis is to put you, delegates, in
the shoes of current and future decision makers in Asia-Pacific. This project also shifts the focus from
most crisis in Europe from historical trigger points of the continent itself to the future in Asia. Coming
from Southeast Asia myself, the nuance of this topic gives me the personal motivation to deliver you
the most authentic experience. It is definitely intriguing to see what you will make out of the resources
you have at hand from different backgrounds, and see the limitless possibilities of future crisis, instead
of historical.
When thinking about a MUN topic in the near future, words such as “resource” “climate” “automation”
“drones” might fly by your mind. It would be hypocritical of us the team then to negate this. We have
assembled the crisis staff from various backgrounds and experiences who are ready to give you a full
crisis experience. A holistic ride, where not just military aspects would be put forward, but you as
delegates would also need to take vital decisions on economy, climate, diplomacy, elections and
technology just like major political players all around the world deal with daily nowadays.
We then ask each and every delegate to immerse yourself in this experiment. We will challenge each
and every one of you on imagining and taking actions on where the future of Asia - and extrapolating
it, the world as a whole - will head to in the next couple of decades. And hopefully by the end of
EuroMUN you might reflect upon current worldviews and the issues of our generation. As the old
adage says, it is easier to envision your goals at the very end and walk slowly backwards to see how to
achieve or see them play out.
Having said that, the staff is here to facilitate your crisis experience, and we are open to your queries
and concerns along the way. The crisis team is here to make you have a great time. We look forward
to meeting you all in Maastricht!
Yours sincerely,
Arkan Diptyo - Crisis Director
Martin Galland - Assistant Crisis Director
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunEuroMUN 2019 Crisis: South China Sea 2030
1st January 2030 - The unveiling of Nanhai International Airport & Harbour (NIAH) in the Spratly
Islands by president Xi Jinping before Christmas has sparked international outcry. The Council of
European Union has scheduled a meeting on 5th January to decide their action on it while
Secretary General of ASEAN has released a public statement calling for a boycott, to which
Canada & several countries in Latin America & North Africa has supported. However, Beijing is
confident that NIAH will continue its operations and even reach profitability in the near future.
Meanwhile, report from a dissident in Hong Kong who fled to California via Taiwan in November
has reached the White House. China is using force against protestors in Hong Kong. While the
CIA finally confirmed the events, most of the world is still kept silent as Chinese Internet Great
Firewall has successfully filtered most of the protester’s uploads…
This year’s EuroMUN Crisis will experiment in an area rarely done in other European crisis before
- creating a future Crisis regarding a sensitive geopolitical issue. The Crisis team will transfer you,
delegates, into 2030s in Asia, where tension arise once more in the South China Sea. This time
however, the stakes will be higher than ever - ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations
are going towards a better integration, making it the second regional supranational body after the
European Union that can act on international level. In Beijing, the uncontested power of Xi Jinping
since 2017 has created to a humongous economy and powerful government that control nearly
all aspects of life while stifling dissent. Whereas the US, while no longer the sole military
superpower in Asia-Pacific, must decide between their 2020s stance of withdrawing from foreign
interventions or the cries of help from their allies in the region, such as Japan, Taiwan, and the
recently-unified Korea.
The issue itself is an ongoing one in our current date. What was previously a dormant claim from
the nine-dash line being drawn up by Nationalist Kuomintang (Republic of China, current-day
Taiwan) government in 1947 began to re-emerge in the 2000s. After ASEAN & China signed
Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002, China used the declaration
as a base for its manoeuvres and lodged their “nine-dash map” claim to the UN in 2009. From then
on, tensions rise. Arrests of local fishing vessels coupled with Naval & Air Forces exercises in early
2010s was then followed up by the Philippines v PR China case in the International Tribunal in The
Hague. The decision was unilaterally rejected by Beijing, and they started building islands in the
area soon after. While there has yet to be any international ground-breaking news headlines since
the aerial photos of the island-building in 2017, the ambiguous status of the water continues to
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunthis day, with competing and at times overlapping claims between China, Philippines, Vietnam,
Malaysia and Brunei.
Now you might ask, how do we even begin preparing for a future Crisis? There is where this Study
Guide comes in. Here we lay down this alternative “history of 2020s” in the next couple dozens of
pages and the situation that has developed for relevant sides in this crisis. You can always couple
your “future research” in this study guide with current information available online.
As for the structure of the Crisis, you will be assigned a character in either of these 3 cabinets:
1. Beijing Cabinet (Politburo Standing Committee of Communist Party of China) - filled with
highest-ranking Communist Party officials, from ministers to army officials and even well-
connected billionaires
2. ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) - comprising of heads of government of
each member state
3. Pacific Coalition (United States, Taiwan, Unified Korea, and Japan) - a mixture of heads of
government and top diplomat/military/intelligence officials, and private sector interests.
Most of these characters are real life person in 2019, though information on them might vary in
each case. A tip from our Crisis Team experience would be to use google chrome’s Translate
button to get even more information in native languages. Additionally, please check on the
character & country profile that we will allocate to you. These profiles, just like the study guide,
will focus more on the “history of 2020” relevant to the characters and countries.
We know that reading lengthy study guides might be a daunting task, thus we provide you now
with a quick summary of what is happening in regard to this crisis 2020-2030 timeline:
● Xi Jinping, now 77 years old, is on the lookout for people worthy to succeed him as leader
of China. However, he would like to ultimately annex as much South China Sea territory
and integrate Hong Kong as smoothly as possible before he resigns.
● While in the past business leaders and the Politburo are not always intertwined, Chinese
tech billionaires have been approved and appointed to Politburo positions since 2027,
which create a rift between long-term career party bureaucrats and these new officials.
● The US economy hit a recession in 2020, which allowed the Democrats to sweep both
Congress and Presidency. Under Bernie Sanders, US looked more inwards, withdrawing
from more foreign interventions and focused on its economic and social homework,
including passing of “Free College for All” and “Medicare for All” Acts.
● This inward-looking US was best exemplified by the 20-days war in 2026. What started as
an assassination of Kim Jong-Un turned quickly into a free-for-all struggle to grab as many
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunterritories in North Korea. While peace talks ensured Korea was at last unified by the South,
China forced the US to abandon its military bases and hand it over to Seoul government.
● Meanwhile, ASEAN continues its integration with creation of ASEAN Exchange Mechanism,
Joint Defence Council and Yogyakarta Convention on Student & Professional Mobility.
While a lot of these are adaptations of EU practices that went smoothly, a divide between
the more developed countries (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, &
Thailand) is apparent with the less developed ones (Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar & East
Timor), preventing a united approach on China.
We hope you find this introduction helpful, and happy exploring the fate of Asia in the 2020s!
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromun2020s Timeline
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromun10 Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromun
China
China in 2030 is the most dystopian thing humanity has ever seen, excluding one time in mid 2020s
when Facebook bought a small uninhabited archipelago on the Pacific and strategically blew up
islands to create the biggest FB logo on earth for a commercial.
In the last years China has achieved many engineering and urbanistic marvels that have cemented
its place as the world's leading economy. High speed trains to communicate not only the west to
the main economical and industrial centres of the east, but also to establish robust communication
system that allows the transport of people living in the outer border of the Hebei region to go to
work every day in Beijing. Bridges connecting Hong Kong and Macau to the Mainland and
facilitating communications and transport on the Pearl River Delta. Nuclear power plants that have
been constructed on the east coast of the country, and giant wind, and solar energy parks to supply
the immense amount of energy required to power this country. But with great successes come
some failures too: due to the unstoppable climate change some structures have been
compromised, most notably the same nuclear power plants have to constantly invest more money
to protect themselves from an ever more violent climate; and the underwater tunnel on the Bohai
sea, connecting Yantai and Dalian had to be cancelled mid construction because of the seismic
activity in the region. Overall China now has 2 of the biggest economical centres in the world,
namely the Pearl River Delta and the Jing jin Ji area, and some of the most experienced engineers
in the world.
Within China, Macau and Hong Kong, government surveillance is immense. On top of monitoring
your movements with incredibly advanced face recognition, at birth you are given a WeChat
account with a score assigned to it. From that day until the day you die your score will increase or
decrease. As everyone has access to WeChat, they can see your score and decide how they want
to interact with you. Not only that, but some laws can be easier enforced, for example, the
government can monitor whether you have read any Marx in the last year and modify your score.
Entry to the Party is restricted to those with a score over 80 out of a hundred. More information
on surveillance is given later in the study guide.
However, the most consequential action taken by the Chinese Government was to tighten
relations with the CEOs. Heads of tech, online shopping, real estate, etc. companies are now
allowed to become members of the parties’ politburo after an intense background check. This has
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunallowed a breeze of fresh air to enter the highest decision-making body of the People’s Republic
of China but also means that the power of the Government is only greater than before.
On the international politics side, China has become much more aggressive. Since the creation of
the Ministry of Nanhai (South China sea) it has been made clear that China is not willing to remove
its claims on the area, constructing move naval bases and artificial islands and vetoing a couple of
Security Council resolutions that attempted to deal with the situation. It is similar with the Spratly
Islands, last year China decided to open a commercial airport to allow tourism into the Islands
although the international response was anything but favourable. It is becoming ever more
difficult to define China’s position in International politics, on the one hand they are willing to
negotiate and provide funds for the creation of infrastructure, as the Belt Road Project progresses,
but they don’t give explanations for some of their more controversial actions.
Finally, there are two issues that deserved to be looked at individually.
Korea
After the revolution of 2026 China was quick to intervene in Korea. As one of the most involved
sides in the 20-days war, China managed to push the US to depart from its South Korean military
bases, in exchange for letting a Unified Korea be a reality. China still shields several top-ranking
figures from the previous Kim regime, guaranteeing them safety in exchange for de-nuclearization
of the peninsula. However, China still feared some potential troubles at the border. Hence an
agreement was struck between them and the new Greater Korean Republic (GKR) to impose a 10-
km demilitarized zone (DMZ) and 50-km deindustrialized zone along the border.
Hong Kong
Ever since the one country two systems agreement came into place, setting the expiration date
for the border on 2047, Chinese influence over Hong Kong has only grown larger. In 2015 we saw
the first umbrella revolution that brought tens of thousands of Hong Kong citizens to the streets
to protest China’s interventionism in Hong Kong affairs. While not having a major backlash on
Chinese policies, it showed a general resentment of the citizens with China.
Throughout the 2020s China progressively gained influence over the Legislative Council of Hong
Kong, which allowed it to pass a lot of measures similar as the ones in the mainland, most
importantly, increasing surveillance and control over the population. This created a split, on one
hand you had the working classes which benefited from Chinese-promoted policies supporting
China interventionism, and on the other a good portion of the middle class that strongly opposes
it. President Xi Jinping authorized “Operation Pearl Star” which saw prominent anti-Beijing
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunpoliticians “disappear” throughout 2028-2029. In December 2029 tensions erupted as the
Legislative Council passed “Integration Act”, giving way to Hong Kong to fully integrate with
mainland China by 2035. This has led to Umbrella Revolution 2.0 starting on Christmas 2029. The
anti-interventionists revolted and took it to the streets, the violence is heavier than with the first
revolution, and the police are struggling to keep it under control. However, Beijing has so far
managed to keep the outside world uninformed of this due to the fortified Internet Firewall.
Meanwhile on the high spheres, as China grew closer to the top rich in the mainland, Hong Kong
billionaires took the opportunity to position themselves as pro-China and thus gain political
benefits. An exception to this situation was the richest man in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing, who took a
very strong anti-Chinese position, and thus becoming a champion of the unrested Hong-Kongnese
society. Sadly, he died and his two sons (Richard & Victor Li Tzar-kouii) crashed over who would
get to inherit his father’s successor. In the end the board elected both the Li brothers defected to
China, where they rose up the political ranks.
Overall, China is arguably the most powerful economy in the world and without a doubt the most
influential nation on earth, it is no coincidence that since 2018 Xi jinping has occupied the position
of most powerful man in the world 12 times (according to Forbes).
The Three Ruling Classes
The Nouveau Riche (Tuhao), Old Guard (Laoren) and Bureaucrats (Guanfang)
Following the 21st Chinese National Congress in 2027, the 3 main political groups within the
Chinese Communist Party rose up. The struggle for Xi Jinping’s successor could finally manifest
itself in the open. The 3factions formed had radically different views about the future of the
country and how to exercise power. The Old Guard, or Laoren, sought to find ideological purity by
mixing Marxism and Chinese Nationalism to guide China in its quest for international hegemony.
The Nouveau Riche, or Tuhao, have finally got the recognition they thought they deserved for a
long time as the main drivers of the Chinese economic miracle, and they have even higher
ambitions albeit with a less aggressive international stance. Finally, there are the Bureaucrats, or
Guanfang. They know that high aspirations can lead to demise and are seeking to maintain the
status quo by keeping internal and external forces in check.
The Old Guard – Laoren
This faction is composed of the same people that rose to China’s top-level positions together with
Xi Jinping in 2012. A decade ago Laoren had everything. They were the ones making the decisions
as a cohort. Since then, everything has changed. Rapid economic development has left new
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromungenerations of Chinese more interested in the material world rather than the Party’s ideology.
While certain parts of the society would like to see Chinese influence on the world stage grow, it
is becoming increasingly more nationalist rather than Marxist. Over the course of last decade, the
Laoren have worked hard to develop a unique brand of ideology balancing the nationalist and
Marxist sentiments to curb the power of the Nouveau Riche Tuhao but their efforts ultimately
failed as the Tuhao were officially recognised by Xi Jinping at the 21st National Congress to hold
political positions within the Politburo. However, the Hong Kong question has proven to be an
effective tool in getting their power back. Invoking the great party leaders of old, they have argued
for an aggressive policy against Hong Kong and have now set sights on targets abroad seeing that
the population can still be swayed by rhetoric.
The goal of the Laoren is to regain the spotlight within the party by swaying Xi Jinping’s opinion
towards a more aggressive foreign policy. They believe that the new Tuhao are not capable enough
to enforce Chinese international dominance. However, they must be careful. Their vision of China
will not allow western brand of consumerism define the new Chinese society and now that they
have tasted riches, the new Chinese middle class will not easily give up their relative freedom.
The Nouveau Riche – Tuhao
As the people responsible for Chinese economic ascent it was only a matter of time until the super-
rich CEOs, managers, and industrialists demanded their place in the Chinese system of political
power. They were granted that concession following the 21st National Congress 2027 but their
final goals are still way beyond. They understand that the strength of a single party system allows
them great freedom in their economic exploits, and they are seeking to steer the party away from
ideology, retaining only the basics needed to control the population. Their main goal is to establish
China as the dominant economy in the world and increase the levels of market freedom needed
for higher profits. In terms of foreign policy, they favour less aggressive approach to allow greater
credibility in economic dealings with the rest of the world, while still invoking heavy-handed and
sometimes monopolistic market approach when it comes to exploiting new markets abroad. They
are especially concerned with the US as they understand that it is better to not provoke the US to
act aggressively in the Chinese influence sphere, but rather to confine them to a slow death of
economic decline, preferably under the duress of a manufactured financial crisis.
The main goal of the Tuhao is to use the best of the situation they found themselves in and prevent
the Laoren from regaining the central role in defining the future course of the country. They must
also find a solution to the oil problem as it poses the main barrier for Chinese economic
supremacy. Finally, they must not fully neglect ideology because the mistake in that regard could
lead to popular calls for greater freedoms effectively undoing their power grab.
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunThe Bureaucrats – Guanfang
While the history of the Chinese Communist Party is marked by faction fighting for most of its
history, the state’s army of bureaucrats ensured nothing gets too out of hand. The Guanfang
faction in the Politburo is led by people who have climbed the Communist Party’s hierarchy and
are now in their 50-60s. While President Xi abolished tenure limits back in 2017, their insights of
the Party mechanism and up-to-date knowledge of the outside world makes them believe that
they are the faction who should take over eventually.
However, Guanfang presents to the outside a “neutral technocrat” image - by staying neutral and
always fully committing to the party line regardless of the current faction, the Guanfang present a
silent army within China. All of Chinese success would not be possible without them and they know
that a bureaucratic rebellion can bring down any political entity within the country. Until now they
have decided to stay away from direct spotlight and might chose to do so again but they recognise
their role as a kingmaker in the new political dynamic of the Chinese Communist Party. Even more
so, they recognise the opportunity to become the real rulers of Chinese politics by playing the
Laroen and the Tuhao against each other.
The Guanfang will seek to exploit the division between the Laoren and the Tuhao to increase their
standing in the Party hierarchy. A skilled bureaucrat might even fancy the top job if they play their
cards right. In this quest for increased power they must take care that their main purpose remains
fulfilled, the stability of the Chinese political system. The state comes first, individual aspirations
second. This also comes with a pragmatism of playing slow games with large external powers like
the US and being assertive against countries they deem China can overpower, like some smaller
countries within ASEAN.
United States of America: Looking inwards
U.S Elections in the 2020s
As the discontent grew under the Trump presidency, the United States increasingly turned blue.
People called for internal focus, and support for the citizens. The race for the 2020 elections was
starting off very even for both parties. While Trump held the advantage of being the incumbent,
the Democratic candidates were gaining support with every new executive order signed. The
campaigns were focusing on reducing the national debt, cutting military spending, and fostering
international relations. As the democratic primaries drew to a close, Bernie Sanders emerged as
the nominee, with Kamala Harris coming second and put as his running mate. With Bernie Sanders
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunadvocating for universal and single-payer healthcare, tuition-free tertiary education, reducing
military spending, and emphasising on labour rights and environmental concerns, Bernie rode the
so-called “Blue Wave”. The younger generations came out in force to rally around the democratic
party, along with the LGBTQ+ and African American communities. Election night on November
3rd, 2020 was not near as close as 2016, resulting in Bernie gaining 52.7% of the electoral college.
As the Democrats regained control of the White House, the same held true for the Senate. The
House of Representatives also remained majority Democrat. With a clean sweep of Washington
D.C., many people expected the term to start off on a high note. However, before any reform
could be put in place, there was widespread clean-up that had to be attended to. A minor
recession hit the country due to US-China Trade War as the administration worked to reverse the
previous policies and bolster the economy again. With the recession lasting the first year of
Bernie’s presidency, approval ratings did not start out the strongest. Through the next 2 years, the
White House endeavoured to focus on the country internally and improving the lives of the
citizens. As the next election in 2024 approached, many people were uncertain about the direction
that the Democratic Party was going to take. As Bernie Sanders continued to age, the concern
grew that he would not last another term. When Bernie announced his candidacy bid once again,
he was already the favoured democratic nominee. The primary elections for both parties were
settled, Bernie Sanders emerging victorious for the Democrats and John Kasich of the Republican
party. The campaign heated up, with many jabs at Sanders for his age and the Recession in the
beginning of his office. The election day approached with no definite frontrunner in the polls. The
polls closed on election day with a winner, the incumbent. Bernie Sanders had obtained the
presidency for the second time. The Republicans re-took the Senate, however the Democrats only
trailed by 3 seats.
Tragedy struck on February 17th in 2026 within the White House. President Bernie Sanders was
found dead of a heart attack at the age of 84. As the country mourned the loss of their leader, the
new President was sworn in. Making history as the first female president, Kamala Harris was sworn
in midterm. Moving from the role of Vice-President to President was an abrupt change that Harris
had to adjust to. Nominating Kirsten Gillibrand as her Vice-President was a bold statement;
however, it was approved by Congress. Finishing out the last two years of the 2024 election cycle,
Harris did not undertake any sweeping reform of the system. The administration focused on
maintaining a positive rating and continuing the internal economic focus, thus further ignoring the
decline of US international presence.
The 2028 elections brought with it a new set of expectations. As an incumbent, Kamala Harris had
an advantage going into the elections. However as there had never been an elected female
president, there was no definite re-election in sight. Running against Ben Carson as the Republican
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunnominee, Kamala Harris set her sights on making history once again. As the votes were tallied, the
results came back in favour of the Democratic party once again. President Kamala Harris would
remain in office until 2032.
The American Economy in the 2020s
In the period 2016-2020, the Trump administration pushed their economic agenda, promising
more jobs, more money and an overall better economic situation for all Americans. These
promises initially resulted in high growth ratio in 2019 and 2020 of approximately 5% and 6%
respectively. However loathed, the economic boom quickly turned into an economic bust, a period
we now refer to as the 2020 US recession. The high economic growth overheated the economy,
resulting in inflation, plummeting consumer confidence and a stock market crash. The high
inflation and high unemployment rates sparked social unrest, while the government was unable
to act due to limited monetary funds. Due to the large amount of government investments during
the Trump administration, the amount of debt of the US to other nations and third parties grew
higher and higher. The newly elected democratic government was unable to effectively implement
economic policies fighting the recession, which resulted in a growing narrative against the global
economy.
This narrative quickly grew more and more apparent, resulting in a series of policies focusing on
the USA pulling back from the global economy. This movement and narrative gained a lot of
ground, especially after China overtook the United States as the world’s largest economy in the
2020’s. The USA lost its leadership in the economic sense because of stagnating growth in the
developed world and a shift in demographics, whilst China managed to consistently accomplish
their long-term growth goals.
Losing its leadership in the economic sense, the United States started looking more inward to find
means increase its productivity and eliminate poverty. In the 2020’s decade, more and more
technological advancements were made, aiming to increase overall productivity and resolve
arising societal issues. The use of technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics resulted
in growth on both the supply and demand side, as humans shifted more and more to the “creative
demand” side of the markets.
Aside from the use of technology in the business world and manufacturing plants, big data and
the internet of things (IoT) quickly gained a lot of ground and was used for optimizing production
management and development of new products and services. However, despite its efforts, the US
never regained its leading economic position.
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunOn the one hand, technology and data has brought the US a lot of wealth and growth in the last
decade or so, however, this also came hand-in-hand with more power for technology companies
and billionaires. This group of people quickly acquired large amounts of powers, which they
effectively used to shape the policies of the United States, resulting in lower tax-income from tech-
billionaires.
In line with its policy of retracting further and further from the international economy, the US
didn’t act upon the instalment of the ASEAN Exchange Mechanism (AEM). The only comment on
the system remained that ACRU (the common reserve unit) keeps the ASEAN currencies artificially
low. Secretary of State Tulsi Gabbard however noted down that AEM could be a model for a
defence against increasing Chinese Yuan influence in Asia & Africa.
East Asia: Unification and Militarisation
Korea
The 2020s did not start well for the Korean Peninsula. The wave of support and popularity that
brought President Moon Jae-in to power in 2017 faltered as his government became unable to
address the economic downturn in the South Korean economy. To make matters worse, his policy
on North Korea bore no fruit as President Trump removed himself from further talks, annoyed that
little to no progress was being made. These accumulated failures enabled a resurgence of the
Liberty Korea Party - now free from corruption and cult scandals - to thoroughly defeat the
Democratic Party with a hard-line economic and foreign policy platform. North Korea, on the other
hand, continued to develop its nuclear arsenal. The number of missile tests gradually decreased
as international pressure lessened, allowing Kim Jong-un to focus on structural reforms. The
majority of the Old Guard that remained following the 2013 Purge were removed from power,
giving way to a young and ambitious New Wave.
This new wave would prove fatal to the Kim Dynasty, for in 2026, the Supreme Leader is
successfully assassinated. The coup attempt goes badly however, causing both the South Koreans
and China to intervene immediately to limit destruction and chaos. The Twenty-Day War ensued
as China moves in with surprising speed to secure nuclear warheads. Thankfully, skirmishes
between South Korea/US forces and Chinese troops were few and far between, allowing for peace
talks to follow with ease. The talks did not include North Korean officials and therefore ultimately
ended with Korean reunification under South Korea. The terms also included the creation of a 10
km DMZ, a 50 km ‘no heavy industry zone’ on the China-Korea border, and the removal of all US
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunforces on the peninsula once complete denuclearisation had been accomplished. Following
reunification, the South Korean Democratic Party and People’s Party merge for the 2027 elections
with Ji Seong-ho (a former North Korean defector) as the leader of the new Korean Peace Party
and were able to defeat the Liberty Korea Party.
Japan
In the early years of the 2020s, Japanese politics focused far more on the domestic situation over
foreign affairs. A scandal involving Shinzo Abe, combined with the inability of the LDP government
to form a cohesive policy tackling economic and demographic problems in the run-up to the 2021
elections allowed a coalition of the CDP/DPP (centre and centre-left) to gain traction but ultimately
only win the Lower Chamber in a still surprising win over the monolithic LDP. The new government
attempted to bolster the economy through relaxed migration laws but could only do so in a limited
fashion. Not unlike the last time a coalition defeated the LDP, the CDP/DPP alliance became mired
in corruption scandals between 2023 and 2024. Snap elections are announced following a total
breakdown of the government in November 2024. The Neo-LDP, revitalised and modernised by
Abe’s political successor Taro Kono, sweep both chambers in a overwhelming victory. True to his
political views, Taro Kono begins his term as Prime Minister by continuing to relax immigration
policies in order to attempt to resolve the demographic problem. The scale however, remained
quite limited, and would do little in the long run to help revitalise the workforce. Kono attempted
to become more involved on the Korean peninsula, especially after its reunification, but with the
withdrawal of American troops, the new Korean government began to distance itself from the
half-a-century old Korea-US-Japan alliance. With the economy still failing and the demographic
issue remaining critical in the short term, Kono’s platform for the 2028 elections was ingrained in
increased militarisation and further posturing against China, riling up nationalistic sentiments in
Japan and allowing the Neo-LDP to remain in power.
Taiwan
The first half of the 2020s represented a historical juncture in Taiwanese history. While the
Kuomintang was able to win the Presidency in the 2020 elections, public opinion began to steadily
return towards the DPP in light of increasingly aggressive statements by Xi Jinping and the PRC.
The Taiwanese Independence referendum had been the long-term project of the Pan-Green
coalition and was their platform that enabled their victory in the 2024 elections. The preparation
of the referendum took the whole year as Chinese influencers tried their hardest to delay the vote
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunand switch public and political opinion. On the eve of the 1st of January 2025 however, the
referendum results were released - showing to the whole world the Taiwanese people’s
commitment to changing their country’s name from the Republic of China into the Republic of
Taiwan and formally declaring independence from the mainland. The PRC immediately moved in
to coerce the Taiwanese government to back down but were met by a dedicated Taiwanese and
American naval force that stalemated the standoff on the shores of Taiwan. Tensions eventually
cooled down, with China blocking Taiwan’s accession to the UN as a member state and instead
forcing it to be an observer.
ASEAN: A closer Union of competing interests
Climate Solidarity Pact
In today’s Anthropocene era, the amount natural disasters increase due to humanity’s significant
impact on the Earth’s ecology. The Earth’s temperature increases: the highest recorded in the
modern era. Due to this, the polar ice caps are melting at an alarming rate, rising sea level
throughout the entire globe. The rising sea levels also intensified periodically occurring natural
disasters.
This triggered various natural disasters, especially in islands and coastal area. In the beginning of
2028, a massive tsunami has hit Samoa. Caused by an 9.8 earthquake on the Richter scale, it was
the biggest and most destructive tsunami in recent history in this region. In difference to previous
tsunamis, like the one in 2009 and in 2025, which have only caused relatively minor damage
outside of the immediate region around Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Vanuatu have also
experienced tsunami waves in 2028, flooding the entirety of some minor islands and demolishing
these nations’ infrastructure and claiming thousands of lives. On the Cook Islands, it has caused
the complete destruction of the infrastructure of its main island, Rarotonga. New Zealand has also
reported destruction of coastal towns along the pacific coast of its Northern Island.
Since the mid 2020s, Bangladesh have experienced regular massive floods. In 2028, a particularly
deadly and destructive flood has hit large parts of the country, in especially densely populated
regions hit Bangladesh, in the same year, pushing back the country’s development as funds have
to be reallocated for the damages.
This chain of natural disasters displaced thousands of people, triggering a massive wave of
refugees going to Southeast Asian countries and Australia. This prompted several nations to create
an international treaty, the “Climate Solidarity Pact”, where the countries of the Association of
Southeast Nations as well as Australia agreed to accept climate refugees. This helped resolve
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromuntension between Indonesia and Australia over East Timor ASEAN membership. Despite New
Zealand being hit by these natural disasters, the nation refused to be a part of the pact as they
want to take care of all displaced persons under their own term as well as to block more climate
refugees from coming into the nation. However, New Zealand formed a bilateral agreement with
Australia, in which Australia will take some of the refugees that are not New Zealand nationals.
The Climate Solidarity Pact is a novelty in international law regarding the international legal status
of environmentally displaced persons (EDPs). In article 3 of the ASEAN-Pacific Climate Solidarity
Pact, the member countries decide to accept a definition which relies on the distinction of “climate
refugees” and “environmentally displaced persons”. The member countries of the pact distinguish
therefore between persons displaced permanently, the climate refugees, which cannot return to
their place of living due to a permanent and non-reversible destruction. The pact equally defines
EDPs as persons which are temporarily displaced by natural disasters:
Article 3 of the ASEAN-Pacific Climate Solidarity Pact - Definitions relevant to the present Pact
1. Climate refugees are individuals, families, groups and populations confronted with a
sudden or gradual environmental disaster that inexorably impacts their living conditions,
resulting in their forced displacement, at the outset or throughout, from their habitual
residence. They shall be granted at least equal treatment to refugees as defined by the
1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.
2. Environmentally displaced persons, hereafter referred to as EDPs, are individuals, families,
groups and populations which are displaced temporarily due to a sudden environmental
disaster and shall not be considered climate refugees. They shall be granted a temporary
residence permit.
The Climate Solidarity Pact also retakes certain aspects of the - now failed - Dublin agreement in
Europe. After another major refugee influx from Yemen after the country was essentially split up
into two puppet states of Iran and Saudi Arabia respectively, the Dublin agreement was decided
to be unfit to deal with the effective handling of asylum requests
In article 19 of the Climate Solidarity Pact, the ASEAN member states and Australia agree to
examine asylum requests for all climate refugees, as well as all requests for temporary residence
permits for EDPs, if the person in question has not done son in another member state of the pact:
Article 19 of the ASEAN-Pacific Climate Solidarity Pact - State responsible for examining
applications for asylum lodged in one of the Member States
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromun1. Member States of the Climate Solidarity Pact are responsible for the examination of the
asylum application of any environmentally displaced person who applies at the Member
States border or in their territory for asylum.
2. The application submitted to one of the Member State of this Pact shall be examined by a
single Member State, the acceptance or decline of the application shall be determined in
accordance to the definition of EDPs as outlined by article 3 as well as the criteria defined
by articles 5 to 9 of the present pact.
In order for peripheral countries to not be overwhelmed by asylum requests, the ASEAN member
states also ratified an additional protocol to the pact which sets up an ASEAN Climate Change Trust
Fund, which allocates funds to countries that have experienced a disproportional influx of
immigrants in comparison to other ASEAN member countries.
Exchange Mechanism (AEM)
The extroverted economy of Singapore was gravely affected by the US recession in 2020. Other
ASEAN countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia had to deal with a less pronounced economic
downturn over all, but certain sectors, especially the trade of electronic machinery, still
experienced a considerable decrease in exports towards the United States. This economic
development encouraged an increased regional cooperation between the ASEAN member
countries. The idea in the making since 2021, but the decisive moment only came in 2024 during
the February ASEAN Summit, hosted by Laos in Vientiane. The most important decision taken by
the heads of states was to peg the national currency to the newly established the ACRU, the Asian
Common Reserve Unit.1 Due to the still lingering effects of the US recession 5 years ago, it was
decided to fully implement the policy only by 2029 in order to prevent spread of the sectorial
recession between the affected countries. It was also agreed to leave a marge of ±3.5% to adjust
the exchange rate of the national currencies in case of economic chocs. The ACRU and the Chinese
Yuan have been capped at 25% fluctuation maximum, as requested by China. The provision applies
itself to Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia, East Timor and the Philippines.
Since the implementation of the ASEAN Exchange Mechanism, the south-east Asian market has
further regionalized. The decision had largely positive effects on the national markets of the ASEAN
members. The ASEAN member countries are now talking about the implementation of a common
trade policy in order to compete with larger economies such as China and the United States.
1
The Asian Monetary Unit (AMU) was decided to be unfit as a currency basket, as it also included the currencies of
Japan, China and South Korea. The AMU still continues to exist, but has no function outside of the comparison of the
ASEAN +3 economies. The ACRU on the other hand
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunHowever, the creation of a unique currency is still very controversial on an ASEAN level, but free
trade oriented and liberal parties and political currents in the different countries are largely
augmenting in favour of a common currency.
From the side of the European Union and of the United States, the ASEAN exchange mechanism
is criticized for keeping the value of the South-East Asian currencies artificially low. Still, the ASEAN
Exchange Mechanism was accepted as a way to counter the dominance of the Yuan in Africa.
The increased regionalization of the ASEAN economy has had multiple effects on the economic
development and growth of the member countries. While Indonesia stayed in the top spot when
it came to GDP for most of the 2020s, Malaysia started to catch up in the middle of the decade
and surpassed Indonesia as the biggest economy of ASEAN in late 2028. Singapore’s economy took
a major hit in 2020/21 but recovered relatively fast and kept its high GDP per capita. The fastest
growing economy in ASEAN is also its newest member: East Timor became much more attractive
for investors since its adhesion to the Association - in especially for investors from other ASEAN
countries. The economy of East Timor has an average growth rate of 16% per year since the
adhesion, albeit slowing down significantly after a very quick initial increase.
Establishment of Defence-Foreign Affairs Council
After the disastrous response of ASEAN and the countless backlash from the international
community during the Rohingya Crisis that started in 2015, ASEAN has decided to pool together
their resources and established the Defence-Foreign Affairs Council. The council aptly named the
ASEAN United Defence Council (AUDC) was founded at the 2022 Phnom Penh ASEAN Summit in
Cambodia. The Rohingya crisis caused the organization to reassess the structure and working of
ASEAN. In the early 2000’s, ASEAN have been criticized for their lack of strength and capabilities
due to their non-intervention policy and flexible consensus. The ASEAN member states have an
implicit rule of not intervening with each other’s domestic policy, this is due to their shared
colonial history and fear of foreign intervention in their country. They also have the flexible
consensus, this would mean that member states can simply agree to a policy but do not need to
implement the policy. These factors combined caused ASEAN to be frequently called a “tiger
without teeth” as most of their agreed policy are hollow and can be judged as inconsequential.
The foreign minister of Indonesia at the time, Retno Marsudi, spearheaded the campaign and the
formation of the AUDC. The AUDC is styled after the European Union model with a head
commissioner as the head. The AUDC overruled the traditional non-intervention model and any
decision made by them are legally binding. The more conservative ASEAN member states
reluctantly agreed after the 2021 establishment of China’s Ministry of Nanhai (Southern Sea) was
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Website: http://euromun.org Facebook: EuroMUN Instagram: @euromunformed as they see this as encroachment of China into the ever-disputed South China sea issue.
Fearing a Chinese takeover and the lack of support from the growingly isolated United States,
ASEAN agreed to create the AUDC. However, Philippines although agreeing to creation of the
AUDC, has pulled an ‘empty chair’ tactics by not sending a representative for the first AUDC
meetings. The AUDC was in charge of the group’s common foreign and security policy. Marsudi,
being the incumbent foreign minister of Indonesia at the time, cannot appoint herself as the head
commissioner, due to fear of clash of interest. Instead it was unanimously agreed by all the
member states that the first head commissioner would the former Minister of Defence of
Malaysia, Mohamad Sabu. Sabu was also one of the architects of the AUDC and is well known for
his public speaking abilities. The AUDC is now an organ of ASEAN that meets 3 times a year and
the meeting is represented by both the foreign minister and the defence minister of all of the
member states. The AUDC have also effectively replaced the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting
(ADMM)
In 2024, along with Timor’s ascension to ASEAN, the AUDC created a new proposal for the ASEAN
Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). 2024 also saw a new president of the Philippines put
in power. As the Philippines missed the drafting process, they are forced to agree to the new AFSP
regardless as a show of good faith. The new AFSP is heavily based on the EU CFSP model. The
AUDC defines the principles and general guidelines for the CFSP as well as common strategies to
be implemented by ASEAN. In 2025, the high commissioner titled was renamed as the High
Representative of the Association for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HRA). In the first few
years of its existence, the AUDC exceeded the expectations of its critics and ASEAN have taken the
necessary steps in improving their conflict prevention and peacekeeping in the region. Plans have
even been drafted to create a joint defence task force. In 2029, the Sabu’s term as HRA had ended,
former President of Singapore, Halimah Yacob, was elected to be his replacement.
Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia: The Pro-China votes
During the latter half of the 2010’s, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia have strengthened their ties
with their giant neighbour in the North, China. This all stems from the countries previous socialist
rule and the need for trade and capital. At that time, the long-term consequences of these ties
have not been clear.
In Myanmar, since State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi assumed office in March 2016, her
government has strived to increase their ties with China. She has successfully pushed to resume
the controversial Letpadaung mining project, to re-open the China–Myanmar oil pipeline, and has
signed agreements on constructing a deep-water port in Kyaukpyu and establishing a China–
Myanmar border economic cooperation zone. In return for Myanmar’s cooperation, Beijing has
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