Combating Climate Change - the german adaptation Strategy - CFI
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Combating
Climate Change
the german
adaptation Strategy
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Published by: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
Public Relations Division · 11055 Berlin · Germany
Email: service@bmu.bund.de · Website: www.bmu.de/english
Editors: Christine Feix, Almut Nagel, Jürgen Schulz, Thomas Stratenwerth (BMU)
Design: design idee, büro für gestaltung, Erfurt
Printing: Silber Druck, Niestetal
Photos: Title page: Klaus Westermann/Caro p. 34 (bottom): Brigitte Hiss/BMU
p. 4: GFC Collection p. 35: Thomas Stephan/www.oekolandbau.de
p. 6: Thomas Imo/photothek.net p. 36: Reinhard Eisele
p. 7: Friedrich Haun p. 37: Jörg Böthling/agenda
p. 8: Nick Cobbing/Still Pictures p. 38: Matthias Lüdecke
p. 9: die bildstelle/MCPHOTO p. 40: Helga Lade Fotoagentur
p. 10: Wolfgang Deuter p. 41: Henning Christoph/Das Fotoarchiv
p. 13: Peter Lehner/Mauritius Images p. 42: W. M. Weber/TV-yesterday
p. 15: Hoffmann/Caro p. 43: Ralf Niemzig/VISUM
p. 18: Hoffmann/Caro p. 44: Rainer Weisflog
p. 19 (top): W.M. Weber/TV-yesterday p. 45: Prisma/F1 ONLINE
p. 19 (bottom): Christian Bauer/F1 ONLINE p. 46: Katarzyna Zommer/Deepol
p. 20: Riedmiller/Caro p. 47 (top): Katarzyna Zommer/Deepol
p. 22 (top): Jörn Haufe/Fotex p. 47 (bottom): A1PIX/AAA
p. 22 (bottom): KOS/A1PIX p. 48: Falk Heller/argum
p. 23: Christian Jablinski/Keystone p. 50: E. Kajan/blickwinkel
p. 24: Olaf Döring p. 51: Falk Heller/argum
p. 25: Bildagentur Huber p. 52: Rainer Weisflog
p. 26 (top): Andreas Buck p. 53: Wolfgang Kunz
p. 26 (bottom): Klaus Wagenhäuser/ALIMDI.NET p. 54: Doerr/Outdoor-Archiv
p. 27: Peter Frischmuth/argus p. 55: Wolfgang Nuerbauer/argum
p. 28: Peter Duddek/VISUM p. 56: Science & Society Picture Libary/NASA
p. 29: Norbert Schäfer/vario images p. 58: Mehdi Chebil
p. 30: Ralph Lueger Fotografie p. 60: die bildstelle/ACTIONPLUS
p. 31: R. Usher/WILDLIFE p. 63: Marcus Gloger/JOKER
p. 32: vision photos p. 64: Sven Döring/VISUM
p. 33: Bildagentur-online p. 65: Peter Widmann
p. 34 (top): Firstlight/vario images
Date: March 2009
First Print: 3,000 copies
2
CONTENTS
04 1. Climate proteCtion and adaptation to Climate Change
– the two pillarS of germany’S Climate poliCy
10 2. man iS influenCing the Climate
2.1 Already changed: the global climate 12
2.2 Climate change in Germany 14
2.3 Dealing with uncertainty factors 18
20 3. the ConSequenCeS of Climate Change – what Can we do?
3.1 Impacts on nature and society 22
Our health 23
Building sector 26
Water regime, coastal and marine protection 27
Soil 30
Biological diversity 31
Agriculture 35
Forestry and forest management 36
Fisheries 37
Energy industry 38
Financial services industry 39
Transport 40
Trade and industry 41
Tourism industry 42
3.2 Regional policy, regional planning and civil protection 43
3.3 Regional diversity 45
3.4 Climate protection and adaptation– combining the two wherever possible 47
48 4. how to do it – reSearCh Support for adaptation
56 5. global adaptation – the german Contribution
5.1 What is the international community doing? 58
5.2 What is the Federal Government doing? 58
60 6. the road to the aCtion plan
6.1 Informing people 62
6.2 Involving many actors 63
66 Glossary
68 Information available on the Internet
3
Climate protection and adaptation to climate change – the two pillars of Germany’s climate policy
The climate is changing world- gases must be reduced worldwide, adaptation: the adverse effects of
wide – and so are our living con- by the industrialised countries in foreseeable changes on society
ditions. If we do not succeed in particular. and nature should be kept to a
slowing the pace of global climate minimum. It is therefore import-
change, experts expect far-reach- But climate change has already ant to reduce their vulnerability
ing consequences for the environ- started. Even if we succeed in (see Glossary - Vulnerability) and
ment, society and the economy. meeting the two-degree target, help them adapt flexibly to the
That is why Germany, together many things will no longer be the new situation. Also, we must not
with the member states of the same as before. Ecological, social fail to take advantage of the op-
European Union (EU), is seeking and economic consequences are portunities that climate change
to contain the rise in mean global already making themselves felt in opens up for certain areas. For
temperature. Experts consider that many regions, and they will prob- example, new openings could
two degrees Celsius above pre- ably increase in the years ahead. emerge in the fields of tourism,
industrial temperature levels is an agriculture and environmental
acceptable maximum for keeping To minimise the adverse effects, technology. Taking appropriate
the consequences manageable. we first need to step up climate and timely action, e.g. through
If this is to be achieved, climate- protection. Secondly, we need to far-sighted planning and construc-
relevant emissions of greenhouse take precautions in the form of tion, not only prevents avoidable
6 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGy
damage. It also saves future gener-
ations from having to make even
greater efforts to achieve the same
results.
In view of all this, one thing is
clear: adaptation measures are
no substitute for climate protec-
tion. If temperatures in the global
greenhouse increase, the cost of
adaptation measures will also in-
crease. Conversely, it is also true
that keeping down the amount of
harmful greenhouse gases that es-
cape into the atmosphere helps to
keep down the cost of adaptation.
To this extent there is an inex-
tricable connection between
climate protection and adapta-
tion: they are two sides of the
same coin, and form the two
pillars on which Germany’s cli-
mate policy is built.
Whereas climate protection in-
volves quantifiable targets –
namely the quantity of green-
house gas emissions to be reduced
– the target of adaptation meas-
ures is less easy to express in con-
crete terms: the important consid- These are complex demands, in This will frequently lead to a need
eration here is to reduce the vul- which not only a large number of to rewrite the original plan. For
nerability of natural, social and actors and decision-making levels this reason it is essential that all
economic systems. It also seeks to have a role to play. There are also concerned are aware of what the
improve their capacity to adapt to interactions between different sec- others are doing and what goals
new situations. tors such as agriculture and water they are pursuing. only then is
management, which means that it possible to identify and resolve
benefits for one area may give rise conflicts. particularly because the
to undesirable side-effects else- problem is so complex, it is ab-
where. As a result, it is not only solutely essential to take a struc-
necessary to identify the inter- tured approach and ensure trans-
actions, but also to weigh up any parency.
advantages and disadvantages
that arise.
ClImATE proTECTIon And AdApTATIon To ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE TWo pIllArS oF GErmAny’S ClImATE polICy 7
The Federal Govern- The Federal Govern- means that information and data
ment is showing ment in dialogue must be prepared in a comprehen-
sible form, and made readily avail-
the way able and accessible on a targeted
managing the consequences of cli- basis. It should also be clear what
A structured process of this kind mate change is a task for society countermeasures are possible and
is what the Federal Government is as a whole, and accordingly the who is responsible in each case.
seeking to promote in the German responsibility for it rests on many
Adaptation Strategy (dAS). By sign- shoulders. The German Adapta- In considering how the global cli-
ing the Un Framework Convention tion Strategy is to structure the mate will change, the Federal Gov-
on Climate Change in 1992, it un- process and indicate where the ernment is currently basing its
dertook to develop and regularly federal level sees priorities. The approach on the forecasts made
update a national adaptation plan. regional level (federal states, or by the Intergovernmental panel
“länder”) is already playing an ac- on Climate Change (IpCC) in its
The Federal Government sees the tive role in a variety of areas, and Fourth Assessment report in 2007.
German Adaptation Strategy as a some länder have already drawn The probable picture for individ-
medium-term process in which the up guidelines for action (see Infor- ual regions, by contrast, is far less
federal, länder and local authori- mation available on the Internet, clear. But even here it is neverthe-
ties and many other actors in so- p. 70/71). In the German Adapta- less possible to describe trends
ciety join forces to identify where tion Strategy the Federal Govern- at this level, because different
what action is needed to prevent ment suggests what form the dia- models have come to similar
adverse effects in the future. It is logue could take. conclusions.
then to be taken as a basis for de-
veloping and implementing spe- Ongoing research This report undertakes a synoptic
cific measures. situation review indicating what
and immediate consequences can be expected for
other European states are taking a action humans, the economy and the en-
similar approach, and the EU Com- vironment. It makes it evident that
mission has announced a White there is still a need for consider-
paper on Adaptation for April To make plans and take precau- able further research. But even if
2009. This White paper – based on tions, one needs comprehensive we have to perform our calcula-
the fundamental ideas in the EU information. This applies to tions with several unknowns, “wait
Commission’s Green paper of June private persons, scientists, business- and see” is not an option. If we are
2007 – is to set out concrete details people, civil servants and polit- to be prepared, we have to take
of tasks and action options at the icians alike. They need sound and adaptation measures now. What
level of the European Union. regularly updated research find- is important is that they should
ings so that they can develop meas- be of sufficiently flexible design to
In drawing up the Adaptation ures to adapt to climate change: ensure that they function over a
Strategy the Federal Government is What changes are likely to affect wide range of climate effects and
basing its approach on the follow- specific regions, what threats can be adapted to future findings
ing principles: exist, and what is the probability and needs.
that these risks will occur? This
8 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGy
Made to measure – Assuming interna- to frequent droughts, this has a di-
preferably on a tional responsibility rect impact on migration policy.
The German Adaptation Strategy
local basis In many parts of the world, cli- deals with these issues as well.
mate change will have much more
For many industries and regions in severe consequences than in Ger-
Germany, climate change opens up many. At the same time people in Sustainability and
new opportunities, while others developing countries in particular adaptation are
will be confronted with serious are in a far worse position than we
challenges. Accordingly, the adap- are to protect themselves. Adap-
complementary
tation measures must be different tation is therefore becoming an
in different places. people on the increasingly important aspect of The German Adaptation Strat-
spot often know best what is good bilateral and international cooper- egy is part of the Federal Govern-
for their specific case; in such cases ation. In addition to worldwide re- ment’s Sustainability Strategy, and
the federal level can play a largely ductions in greenhouse gas emis- is embedded in it. Sustainability
supporting role. The Federal Gov- sions, adaptation has come to oc- and adaptation are complemen-
ernment is therefore relying on cupy a leading position in the list tary. This is particularly evident
strengthening individual responsi- of priorities for internal climate when it comes to “Climate and En-
bility and adaptive capacity at the negotiations. ergy” – one of the four key areas
local level. in the Federal Government’s latest
progress report on the national
Today, the adaptation aspect also Sustainability Strategy. But the
Several birds with plays a central role in cooperation German Adaptation Strategy is an
one stone on development, security and en- important factor for other policy
vironmental policy. If more people areas as well. These include the
Adaptation measures should be leave their home countries per- conservation of biological diversity
cost-effective, and their cost should manently as a result of increasing or the promotion of rural areas, to
bear a reasonable relationship to storms and floods, or in response mention only two examples.
the risks from which they are de-
signed to protect us. Furthermore,
they should not be developed in
isolation, but should wherever pos-
sible pursue other meaningful ob-
jectives at the same time. After all,
“one man’s meat is another man’s
poison”. For this reason, all meas-
ures must constantly bear in mind
that they may also have impacts on
other areas of life and economic
activity. The ideal result of timely
dialogue is a solution that is good
for all, or at least not actually bad
for anybody.
ClImATE proTECTIon And AdApTATIon To ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE TWo pIllArS oF GErmAny’S ClImATE polICy 9
Man is influencing the climate
2.1 Already changed: man activities. Especially since the world, and sea level has risen
1950, the curve shows a steep up- by an average of 17 centimetres in
the global climate ward trend. mean temperatures the course of the 20th century.
in the northern hemisphere in
the second half of the last cen-
over the past 100 years, the Earth tury were very probably higher What the IPCC
has become a warmer place. Since than for any other 50-year period expects
the beginning of the 20th century, in the past 500 years. They prob-
the global mean annual tempera- ably exceeded the figures for the If people continue to emit cli-
ture has risen by 0.74 degrees Cel- last 1300 years or an even longer mate-relevant gases into the atmo-
sius (°C). The Intergovernmental period. (Source: Intergovernmen- sphere without any restrictions,
panel on Climate Change, or IpCC, tal panel on Climate Change, IpCC scientists expect mean tempera-
says there is a “very high probabil- 2007, Spm WG I, p. 10, German tures to rise by between 1.8 and
ity” – i.e. a probability of over 90 edition) mountain glaciers and 4.0 degrees Celsius (°C) by the end
percent – that this is due to hu- snow cover are shrinking all over of the century – indeed, some sci-
mean temperatures 1850-2005 (figure 1)
This shows how global mean temperatures have developed from 1850 to 2005 (blue line).
The linear trend since 1850 (black line), 1900 (yellow line) and 1950 (red line) is becoming
steeper and steeper. The trend curve (polynomial fit of the time series) shows the dra-
matic rise since the end of the 1970s (black curve).
Data sources: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs and German Weather Service (DWD)
12 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyrainfall intensity and distribu-
tion are also very likely to change:
while higher latitudes will prob-
ably become wetter, rainfall in
most subtropical land regions
is likely to decrease. This would
maintain the trend that can al-
ready be observed.
entists believe a rise of 6.4 degrees models expect it to disappear al-
Celsius is possible. most completely during the sum- moreover, the various climate
mer season in the second half of models predict that there could
Warming will probably be great- this century. partly as a result of be an increase in both the fre-
est over the continents and in the this, there could be a rise in sea quency and intensity of heat-
polar regions. The ice in the Arctic level of between 18 and 59 centi- waves, local intense rainfall and
is continuing to melt, and some metres by the year 2100. cyclones.
Surface warming scenarios (figure 2)
This shows the extent of global surface warming according to scenarios A2, A1B and B1
(see Glossary – SRES scenarios). If greenhouse gas emissions had been frozen at the level
of the year 2000, the curve could have been expected to follow the orange line. The grey
bars on the right indicate the probable bandwidth of the rise in temperature forecast by
the six SRES scenarios. [IPCC 2007].
mAn IS InFlUEnCInG ThE ClImATE 132.2 Climate change burg-Western pomerania measured on average. Although researchers
in Germany a rise of only 0.4 degrees Celsius. have also registered more rainfall
in the winter months, the great
It is also raining more these variations from year to year mean
mean annual temperatures in Ger- days. meteorologists have found that no statistically significant pic-
many have risen by nearly 0.9 de- that precipitation has increased ture has emerged yet.
grees Celsius (°C) since 1901. From by about nine percent since the
1990 to 1999 meteorologists re- beginning of the 20th century. There are also considerable re-
corded the warmest decade of the The past 15 years have been gional differences. For example,
entire 20th century. Especially in particularly wet – with only four total rainfall in the west of Ger-
the south-west of Germany, therm- exceptions. many has shown an increase in
ometers registered higher figures recent years, but in the east it has
– Saarland recorded a rise of 1.2 Today water butts are filling up hardly changed. however, in the
degrees Celsius in mean annual much faster in spring up to June, east it is now raining more in the
temperature. By contrast, mecklen- though July and August are drier winter – and less in the summer.
mean temperatures 1961-1990 in °C (figure 3)
This shows how mean annual temperatures developed in Germany (blue curve), and also
the linear trend (orange line) and the trend curve (dashed red line). The mean for the
years 1961 to 1990 is taken as the base value for calculating deviations (pink line).
Source: DWD, 2007, www.dwd.de/presse
14 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyLooking into Ger- grid separation is at least 120 ki- merical physical methods to
many‘s future lometres, and in some places the refine the global calculations and
gap is actually more than 200 kilo- obtain a finer-meshed grid with
And what are the prospects for metres. For this reason, regionali- a minimum separation of 10 kilo-
the future? The global climate sation methods are used. Some metres. The four regional models
models are not fine enough take observed climate data from currently used in Germany are
to be used as a basis for precise climate stations and project it into rEmo, Clm, WETTrEG and STAr.
regional forecasts. The horizontal the future, while others use nu-
Surface warming in °C by scenarios (figure 4)
This shows how the mean annual temperature in Germany changes according to the
calculations of the regional models REMO and WETTREG under scenarios A2, A1B and B1
(see Glossary – SRES scenarios) – by comparison with the mean for the years 1961 to 1990.
(Input data from the global model ECHAM 5.)
mAn IS InFlUEnCInG ThE ClImATE 15Figure 4 shows the temperature tures could be as much as 1.5 to towards the end of this century
rises predicted for Germany by the 3.5 degrees higher than in the ref- there could be up to 70 percent
two regional models (rEmo and erence period 1961 to 1990. more rainfall in the central up-
WETTrEG). here the climate re- land regions of rhineland-palati-
searchers have worked on the ba- The effects of climate change nate, hesse and the north-east of
sis of the same three IpCC emis- could be particularly marked in Bavaria.
sion scenarios in each case, which the case of rainfall. Although
makes it possible to compare the taken over the year as a whole The comparative studies of WET-
results. The trend is clear: it will the quantities will probably re- TrEG and rEmo expect tempera-
very probably become warmer, es- main relatively constant, we could tures in excess of 30 degrees to oc-
pecially in winter. The size of the find that there is up to 40 percent cur on three times as many days as
rise will depend largely on the ex- less rainfall in the summer. here between 1961 and 1990 (see www.
tent to which human beings con- again, the south-west could be es- umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz/
tinue to heat the global green- pecially hard hit. Winters, how- index.htm). The experts also expect
house. Experts expect mean an- ever, could – depending on the that cloudbursts could bring even
nual temperatures to increase by model – bring between zero and more intense rainfall than at pres-
0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius in the 40 percent more rainfall. Indeed, ent. Where storms are concerned
period 2021 to 2050. In the last 30 the WETTrEG model actually in- there are still too many uncertain-
years of this century, the tempera- dicates that in the winter seasons ties to permit clear forecasts.
Comparison of model calculations: mean annual temperature (figure 5)
This figure shows the changes in mean annual temperatures predicted by the regional
climate models REMO, CLM, WETTREG and STAR, assuming that mankind emits the amounts
of greenhouse gases in scenario A1B. The upper diagrams show the calculations for the
period 2021 to 2050, the lower diagrams for the period 2071 to 2100. The baseline (zero)
is calculated from the reference period 1961 to 1990.
Comparison of models: mean annual temperature
for 2021/2050
Change in comparison with 1961/1990
for 2071/2100 emission scenario a1b
projection calculation
up to 2055 only
Data source: REMO: MPI-M on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / CLM: MPI-M/MaD i.A. des BMBF, 2007 /
WETTREG: Meteo Research on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / STAR: PIK Potsdam, 2007
16 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyComparison of models: mean summer rainfall (figure 6)
This shows how summer (Figure 6) and winter (Figure 7) rainfall could change in the re-
gional climate models REMO, CLM, WETTREG and STAR if mankind emits greenhouse gases
on the scale assumed in scenario A1B. The upper diagrams show the forecasts for the
period 2021 to 2050, the lower diagrams for the period 2071 to 2100. The baseline (zero)
is provided by the means for the years 1961 to 1990.
Comparison of models: mean summer rainfall
for 2021/2050
Change in comparison with 1961/1990
for 2071/2100 emission scenario a1b
projection calculation
up to 2055 only
Data source: REMO: MPI-M on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / CLM: MPI-M/MaD i.A. des BMBF, 2007 /
WETTREG: Meteo Research on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / STAR: PIK Potsdam, 2007
Comparison of models: mean winter rainfall (Figure 7)
Comparison of models: mean winter rainfall
for 2021/2050
Change in comparison with 1961/1990
for 2071/2100 emission scenario a1b
projection calculation
up to 2055 only
Data source: REMO: MPI-M on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / CLM: MPI-M/MaD i.A. des BMBF, 2007 /
WETTREG: Meteo Research on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006 / STAR: PIK Potsdam, 2007
mAn IS InFlUEnCInG ThE ClImATE 172.3 Dealing with un- In order to deal with such uncer-
tainty factors and nevertheless re-
What approach is the
certainty factors Federal Government
main in a position to take action,
agreement has been reached on taking?
The author mark Twain is said to certain emission scenarios defined
have stated that “The art of pro- by the IpCC. These scenarios de- In its planning and decisions, the
phecy is very difficult, especially scribe potential developments in Federal Government will take ac-
with respect to the future”. Any- human society and our environ- count of the ranges and uncertain-
one who talks about the future al- ment. They form the boundary ties that exist, and will not rely on
ways has to take account of uncer- conditions for climate modelling. the results of individual models.
tainties. In the case of global and But one thing is clear: The models A synoptic view of various model
regional climate models this me- can never be more than approxi- results will provide the basis for
ans that several factors which are mations to reality, since in real life decisions. As a result of social
difficult to estimate could can- the climate is far more complica- change and climate change, glo-
cel each other out in the end – or ted. It is impossible to represent bal change is taking place very
have a cumulative effect. all the factors that go to make up rapidly. This means it no longer
the system we call “climate”. makes sense to use the past to
The amount of greenhouse gases draw conclusions about the future,
emitted into the atmosphere in The further one looks into the fu- as was sufficient in the past. Today
the future will depend on a large ture, and the smaller the regional it is essential to take account of
number of influences and can- focus, the more uncertain the fore- probable and possible future de-
not therefore be predicted. Factors casts become. The probability of velopments. The Federal Govern-
that play a role here include how making a correct forecast is, how- ment will design the adaptation
the population, the economy and ever, increased if it is possible to process so that there is a good
energy prices develop, the way superimpose several models. In probability of achieving its goals
land is used, and the extent to Germany there are four regional despite differences in the way the
which technologies for minimising models that have each been used climate develops.
greenhouse gas emissions become to calculate three emission scena-
established. moreover, it is not yet rios. Further calculations will
possible to make any reliable state- follow.
ments about the impact that indi-
vidual greenhouse gas emissions
have on the climate.
18 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyWhat future planning should look like –
for example in the water management sector
preference should be given to And finally, efforts should be made
measures that are flexible and to achieve synergies – in other
that permit follow-up control. words to take advantage of the fact
For example, technical flood con- that different factors can work to-
trol– e.g. using dykes – should gether and that one measure may
be supplemented by flood con- have desirable effects in different
trol precautions. This includes ap- areas. For example, giving water
propriate building in flood-prone more space by keeping areas free
areas, allowing rainwater to of building or surface sealing pro-
seep away, and setting up flood motes groundwater recharge. At
warning systems. the same time this helps to ensure
that floods do not receive additio-
Steps should also be taken to pro- nal input in the form of direct run-
mote measures that alleviate the off from sealed surfaces, or that no
effects of extreme events such as additional assets such as houses or
floods and low water. This is pos- businesses are sited in areas sub-
sible by reconnecting old river ject to flooding.
branches or setting dykes further
back from the water.
Danube with old river branch
mAn IS InFlUEnCInG ThE ClImATE 19THE CONSEqUENCES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE – WHAT CAN WE DO?
2021
Climate change makes fact in the various policy sectors.
It is important to take a holis-
itself felt in many ways tic approach to the effects of cli-
mate change and to developing
˘ Some changes due to climate change develop gradually and relevant solutions. The focus here
therefore tend to be felt mainly in the medium term: trees blos- should always be on sustainabil-
som earlier in the year, and birds breed earlier. In many regions ity, in other words on finding so-
people are already having to heat their houses less in the winter. lutions that are viable for nature,
society and the economy.
˘ Intense rainfall, storms and storm surges, extreme heat and
long periods of drought will probably occur more frequently and
in more extreme form than in the past, and could result in more
floods or low water, forest fires and heat stress.
3.1 Impacts on na-
ture and society
˘ And finally, there is likely to be an increase in climate variabil-
ity (see Glossary – Climate variability). This means that variations Climate change can have a wide
in climate over time and space will increase. This too can cause variety of effects. To date, these
enormous damage in the medium term, for example if droughts effects can often be described in
occur so frequently that they overstrain the capacity of agri- qualitative terms only – i.e. not
culture and forestry to cope. with measurable data – or pre-
dicted by means of model assump-
tions. There is therefore a need for
long-term climate impact monitor-
The consequences of climate term changes, e.g. population ing to identify changes. Whether
change show very wide regional development or settlement struc- adaptation measures are success-
variations and may have not only ture. Since such factors also influ- ful is something that can also only
negative, but also positive impacts. ence each other, it is absolutely be checked with the aid of reli-
prolonged periods of drought are essential to take account of this able data series.
a threat to harvests, but new cli-
matic conditions may favour var-
ieties for which conditions were
previously too wet or too cold.
higher mean temperatures are ex-
pected for the north Sea and Bal-
tic Sea coasts of Germany, and the
tourist industry is looking forward
to a longer season. At the same
time the winter season in the Alps
is threatened by lack of snow, and
the focus is shifting to other forms
of tourism.
however, the way the economy,
society and the environment de-
velop depends not only on climate
change, but also on other long-
22 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyGerman Länder have developed
a biomonitoring system
headed by Schleswig-holstein, Baden-Württemberg and hesse,
the länder have developed a climate biomonitoring system. It is
designed to ensure that early warning signals are noticed and
that associations or other interests parties can use data collec-
tions and analyses to carry on follow-up work.
Our health In 2006 the concept was agreed with all the länder, the Federal
Environment Agency, the Federal office for nature Conservation
It is possible that climate change and the German Weather Service. The tried and tested methods
could result in an increase in both of observation form a sound and suitable basis for practical work.
infectious diseases and non-infec- Work is already in progress on concrete projects in several länder.
tious diseases such as circulation
disorders and allergies. There is
also reason to fear that more inju-
ries will occur if extreme weather
events – such as storms and floods The pathogen responsible for leish- alone died of heart attacks, cardio-
– become more frequent. maniasis, which is transmitted by vascular diseases, kidney failure,
sand flies, has already been de- respiratory problems and meta-
tected. bolic disorders as a result of heat-
Spread of infectious induced stress.
diseases
Extreme weather condi- mild temperatures combined with
not only existing pathogens can tions and non-infectious nutrient accumulations favour the
spread better in a mild climate. diseases growth of toxic blue-green algae
pathogens that are not yet native to on the Baltic coast and in lakes.
Germany could also become estab- people may be injured or even Contact with such blue-green algae
lished here. As temperatures rise, killed by intense rainfall, floods, may not only lead to irritation of
food can perish faster, leading to storms, avalanches and landslides. the skin or the gastro-intestinal
more frequent gastro-intestinal in- In the heat-wave summer of 2003 tract, but may also cause serious
fections – for example caused by some 7,000 people in Germany liver damage.
Salmonella.
Existing pathogens that could
spread better in a milder climate
include hanta virus, which is trans-
mitted by rodents, frequently bank
voles. Infections caused by excre-
ment from such animals can lead
to fever and range up to kidney fail-
ure. Another example is Borrelia or
spring-summer encephalitis (TBE)
viruses, which are transmitted by
ticks. milder annual temperatures
can provide more favourable living
conditions for such organisms.
A milder climate could also result
in the “Asian tiger mosquito”, for
example, becoming established
in Germany; this can transmit
various viruses including dengue
fever.
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 23Another possible effect of climate sunshine. And finally, negative tion of climate-sensitive pathogens
change could be an increase in al- changes affecting recreation areas or their vectors in Germany. on the
lergic disorders, especially those and the urban climate can also basis of this information, experts
arising from changes in the dis- have adverse effects on individual must consider how they can im-
tribution of pollen. In 2007 the well-being. At present, however, it prove the detection of such infec-
Federal ministry of Food, Agri- is not possible to tell the extent to tions, what is the best way to treat
culture and Consumer protection which atmospheric warming has infected persons, and whether it is
launched an action plan against or will have an influence on non- possible to develop vaccines.
allergies with the aim of making infectious diseases in Germany.
everyday life easier for allergy suf- In the case of non-infectious dis-
ferers. here special mention must eases it is important to bear in mind
be made of the Ambrosia pro- Precautions require that as a rule they cannot be attri-
gramme coordinated by the Julius- information buted entirely to the effects of cli-
Kühn Institute (JKI) (see www.jki. mate change. Individual health can
bund.de/ambrosia – German only). In order to keep the risks arising also be influenced by personal life-
from introduced pathogens under styles and individual health habits,
There is also reason to expect an control, sectoral authorities and re- such as eating and exercise habits,
increase in the incidence of re- search institutions need to work to- tobacco and alcohol consumption,
spiratory problems, favoured by gether and take joint precautions. or noise levels in residential areas.
ground-level ozone during high- This is not only a question of adapt- To be able to assess the adverse ef-
pressure situations in summer. ing the existing monitoring sys- fects of climate change on human
Furthermore, the risk of skin can- tems; it is also necessary to under- health and take effective counter-
cer could be increased by more stand the behaviour and propaga- measures, there is therefore a need
to obtain and analyse data on a tar-
geted basis and to communicate im-
portant findings to specialists and
the general public.
In addition, the federal authorities
and the länder should provide not
only the general public and indi-
vidual risk groups such as children
and senior citizens, but also multi-
pliers such as medical personnel,
nursing staff and disaster control
personnel, with information about
possible basic precautions against
climate change effects. For ex-
ample, more information should be
provided about how to avoid heat-
induced damage to health. At the
request of the federal authorities,
the robert Koch Institute is looking
into such issues. Furthermore, the
effects of climate change are taken
up in the Environment and health
Screening for skin cancer
24 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyAction programme (ApUG). This ing heat-waves or imminent intense buildings should exist especially in
action programme is run by the rainfall. The flow of information urban agglomerations. Green spaces
three federal ministries that are must be further improved to ensure can also function as “cold islands”.
responsible for the environment, that such information reaches hos- local authorities should therefore
health and consumer protection. pitals, crèches and the disaster con- refrain from sealing free surfaces by
(www.apug.de – German only) In trol authorities in good time. creating new streets, car parks and
particular, central objectives of this buildings.
programme include informing the
public and improving cooperation Health needs good Furthermore, hospitals, nursing
between the competent authorities. surroundings homes and retirement homes in
particular must ensure that their
Well-functioning early warning sys- Architecture and urban and land- buildings are adequately insulated
tems reduce the risk of harmful ef- scape planning have a great in- against heat and cold, and that
fects on individuals. The German fluence on whether heat accumu- they possess climate-friendly – i.e.
Weather Service (dWd) informs the lates – especially in built-up areas. preferably passive – cooling facili-
länder – and the administrative dis- To prevent heat stress, unob- ties.
tricts, if need be – about forthcom- structed fresh-air corridors without
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 25past. They do not yet take account
of forecasts about future develop-
ments. however, since buildings
and infrastructure facilities are
frequently used for more than a
hundred years, the federal and
länder authorities should adapt
the standards to take account of
climate change.
In addition, the possible conse-
quences of climate change should
Low-energy building in North Rhine-Westphalia
also be considered when plan-
ning new buildings or purchas-
ing new technical equipment for
Building sector Looking 100 years ahead a building. Whereas there is likely
to be a continuing need to heat
lengthy heat-waves, intense rain- Standards of construction plan- buildings in winter – albeit on a
fall, cloudbursts and severe storms ning, building technology and exe- smaller scale than in the past –, in
can all present a direct threat to cution are high in Germany. The summer it will probably be neces-
buildings, bridges, roads and sew- requirements are different for dif- sary to protect top-floor flats and
age systems. By contrast, it is not ferent regions and localities – de- rooms in particular from overheat-
possible at present to assess what pending on what demands the cli- ing. Thermal insulation and shad-
more frequent damp winters and mate places on specific structures. ing elements should be provided.
more summer sunshine mean for If any changes should take place Together with optimum building
buildings. Another factor that will here, the relevant provisions can orientation they can keep tem-
play an increasing role in future quickly be updated. In any case perature within reasonable limits
is how reliable and flexible cer- dIn standards are examined even at times of great heat, mak-
tain building materials will prove every five years to see whether ing it possible to manage without
in their response to heat. This not they need to be revised. energy-intensive air-conditioning
only has to be considered in new systems. Another forward-looking
buildings. It will also be necessary on the other hand, standards in possibility is controlled ventilation
to make a critical review of exist- the construction sector are still systems of the kind already found
ing buildings. based on observed data from the in passive houses.
Floating house
26 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyWater regime, coast-
al and marine
protection
There are a number of ways in
which the water regime in Ger-
many could be affected by climate
change: in the medium term we
can expect changes in water quan-
tities and water quality. Changes
in the annual distribution of rain
and snow will lead to changes Dyke construction at the Elbe
in groundwater levels and differ-
ences in flow rates. If water levels
in streams and rivers change, this Consequences for the water regime
also has an influence on water
quality – which has to be borne ˘ Intense rainfall events are expected to become more frequent
in mind because of fish and other and more extreme. This probably means an increase in the risk of
forms of life, and also in connec- flooding. And if there is less snow in future, winter precipitation
tion with the treatment of drink- will run off faster. There could also be an increase in storm surges.
ing water. There is also likely to be
an increasing risk due to extreme ˘ In view of the predicted increase in droughts, mainly in sum-
events such as floods, storm surges mer, rivers and streams could in future carry less water. Earlier
or droughts. And finally this could melting of snow in the Alps will reduce the equalisation of low
intensify the existing regional dif- water in the rhine and danube during the summer months.
ferences in the amount of water Apart from ecological damage, this can also be expected to cause
available. problems for cooling water supplies and for shipping.
The interactions between uses of ˘ The water quality of groundwater and surface water is at risk.
water are complex. There are con- Intense rainfall and flooding could flush pesticides, fertilisers, in-
sequently great differences in the dustrial chemicals and pathogens from sewage systems into lakes
extent to which the water sector, and rivers.
flood control and coastal protec-
tion will have to adapt to climate ˘ Warming of lakes and rivers causes their oxygen concentration
change. responsibility for imple- to fall. This means stress for the fauna and flora living in them –
mentation in all these fields rests in addition to the already low water level. higher temperatures
with the länder. also make for easier separation of pollutants previously attached
to sediments.
˘ one cannot rule out the possibility of temporary regional
shortages of drinking water. Allowance must also be made for
the possibility that the treatment process will become more
complicated.
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 27Managing river basins plans and relevant programmes in those international river ba-
of measures should select the al- sins which involve German terri-
The aim of the European Water ternatives that promise good and tory – danube, rhine, oder, Ems,
Framework directive is to achieve reliable functioning in the face Elbe, maas and mosel. moreover,
good water quality status in all of a variety of climate change ef- the federal level assists the län-
bodies of water. To this end the fects, and those that maintain or der through the joint task for
directive requires an integrated strengthen the natural adaptive “the Improvement of Agricultural
management system for river ba- capacity of the rivers. Examples in- Structures and Coastal protection”
sins which includes not only pro- clude renaturing water meadows (GAK), so that they can implement
tection of the water but also or designating floodwater reten- measures on the coast and inland.
its uses – even beyond national tion areas. The new Federal Water In addition, the Federal Govern-
boundaries. It is still necessary to Act is intended to take an impor- ment is providing an extra €380
investigate whether the existing tant step in the direction of adap- million assistance over the period
monitoring programmes of the tation. The Act is to include a re- 2009 to 2025 for coastal protec-
Water Framework directive are quirement that a minimum flow tion measures made necessary by
sufficient to register the effects of rate be guaranteed in rivers and climate change.
climate change on such waters. streams. This could also result in
The European Flood risk manage- temporary restrictions on the ab-
ment directive is also designed straction of water. Adapting infrastructure
to reduce the risks arising from
flooding and high water, and to The federal authorities are sup- What appropriate sewage sys-
minimise damage. porting research projects designed tems, water storage facilities and
to optimise implementation of the drinking water treatment systems
In view of the existing uncertain- Water Framework directive and will look like in future depends
ties, those parties in river basins the Flood risk management di- on numerous factors. In addition
that have to take decisions on rective. The federal level also co- to climate change, it is also ne-
management plans, flood control ordinates the German position cessary to take account of popula-
tion development or the uses to
which land is put. The aim must
be to avoid supply shortages dur-
ing periods of drought, infestation
of water with germs, or situ-
ations where intense rainfall
causes combined sewer systems
carrying domestic wastewater
and runoff from sealed surfaces
to overflow. To prevent such situ-
ations, the draft of the new Fed-
eral Water Act provides that in
future rainwater must soak away
locally, be used for irrigation, or
be discharged into a body of wa-
ter by means of drains kept sepa-
rate from wastewater sewers. Fre-
quently reservoirs and retention
basins are used not only for
28 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyCoastal protection on the island Sylt
storing drinking water, but for
generating power as well. Also
they can be used to regulate down-
stream water levels, making it pos-
sible to smooth out low and high
water situations. To ensure that all
this remains possible even during
times of climate change, reservoirs
must be operated in keeping with
the necessary time and space re-
quirements.
Making efficient
use of water
All in all, there will continue to
be enough water in Germany. In
some districts, however, periods
may occur where there is not suffi- cipalities which identify where In october 2008 Germany gave
cient groundwater or surface wa- specific risks exist. And it is they specific form to the European
ter to satisfy all users simultan- who inform the public and com- marine Strategy through a
eously. In such cases it may make panies about what precautions national Strategy for Sustainable
sense to ensure better coordina- they can take to help reduce these Use and protection of the Seas.
tion of demand. Basically, busi- risks, and what they should do in The central concern here is to
nesses and power plants should the event of intense rainfall. In integrate all policy sectors which
examine their production and addition, provisions in bylaws may adversely affect the biological di-
cooling processes to see whether require the installation of non- versity of the seas in any way.
it is possible to use technolo- return valves for building connec-
gies that use water efficiently or tions. It may also be necessary to At an international level, Germany
whether, for example, rainwater modify sewage systems to prevent has for years been playing an
can be used for certain stages of flooding. active part in the international
industrial production. In the agri- cooperation for the protection of
cultural sector too, methods have the north Atlantic (oSpAr) and
long existed for low-loss irrigation. Protecting the seas at the Baltic Sea (hElCom) and mak-
It is also possible to use purified international level ing efforts to take account of cli-
and microbiologically safe waste- mate change in marine protection
water for watering fields. The presence of the greenhouse policy. The Federal Government is
gas carbon dioxide in the atmo- urging the establishment of well
sphere is one reason why the seas managed and sufficiently large
Supporting precautions are growing warmer and becom- protected areas. By protecting ani-
against floods ing more acid, and why sea level is mals and plants from harmful
rising. As a result, ecosystems are activities, such areas give them a
It is not possible to prevent intense changing and many species are better chance of survival, although
rainfall, nor to predict precisely being affected. Thus all measures the impacts of climate change are
where and when it will occur. one designed to reduce greenhouse gas otherwise just as high here. In the
street may be affected, the next emissions also serve the interests of context of hElCom und oSpAr,
street may remain completely dry. marine protection. Another reason the Federal Government and the
It is therefore important to clarify why they are particularly necessary länder have already nominated
in advance what is the best course is that the marine ecosystems are several regions that will form part
of action for people to take in the already suffering severe stress due of the network of well managed
case of sudden flooding and what to fishing and substance inputs. marine protected areas, as decided
precautions they can take. The here, too, there is interaction at the World Summit on Sustain-
Federal Government can provide between European and national able development in Johannes-
the various actors and the public activities: the European marine burg in 2002. These refuge areas
with general information. Ideally, Strategy Framework directive are to be established by 2010.
however, it is the cities and muni- entered into force in July 2008.
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 29Observing the soil Soil
To identify changes in the soil, one has to take regular measure- how soils develop and what grows
ments. data series lasting decades are needed to document in them depends to a large extent
climate change effects. monitoring of this kind is also needed for on the climate. Climate change
reviewing progress. could bring an increase in intense
rainfall, and temperatures are ris-
Soil quality has been determined for many years – for example by ing. And if the country is swept by
the “Forest Soil Condition Survey” (BZE II) or the soil fertility severe storms, this not only influ-
appraisal. The findings of these surveys provide important basic ences the nutrient and water cycles,
information when it comes to investigating what effect a particu- but also has an impact on the
lar climate has on the soil and what adaptation measures make millions of micro-organisms that
sense. however, the various monitoring systems are not very well are to be found in every hand-
networked as yet and the data are not always comparable. The ful of soil – and hence on humus
federal and länder authorities should take joint steps to ensure formation, carbon sequestration
that this situation changes. and erosion. If the land and the
soil are used in a site-appropriate
Further targeted research is needed here. To permit made-to-meas- way, this can limit the negative ef-
ure regional solutions, scientists need to develop process-oriented fects of climate change. The Fed-
models that reveal the interactions between climate changes, land eral ministry of Education and re-
use and soils (see “making sustainable use of land”, p. 54). search has therefore established a
new key assistance area: “Sustain-
able land management”.
Agriculture, forestry and water
management, nature conserva-
tion and spatial planning all have
a considerable influence on how
soil is used and what it is like as a
result. There is a need for suitable
data for developing appropriate
measures for adapting to climate
change.
To prevent conflicts between dif-
ferent users, the Federal Govern-
ment and the länder are discuss-
ing protection targets and adapta-
tion strategies and involving rep-
resentatives of agriculture, forestry
and water management and also
nature conservation and atmo-
spheric and climate research in
their work. The aim is to develop
optimised solutions that take ade-
quate account of all interests.
30 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGyBiological diversity same time, naturally invading or farmland for growing renewable
artificially introduced species will raw materials, and the construc-
Climate change has already spread. tion of transport routes compete
brought about changes in biologi- with nature conservation areas for
cal diversity (see Glossary - Biologi- Adverse consequences can be ex- scarce land. It will be important
cal diversity) or biodiversity in re- pected, especially for many plants here for the Federal Government,
cent years: sardines now live in and animals in mountain and and also governmental actors
the north Sea, flocks of birds and coastal regions: species that already such as the länder and local
shoals of fish are changing their live high up cannot simply move authorities and non-governmental
migration times and destinations. even higher. permanent flooding actors, to systematically pursue the
Some species are spreading, others and erosion present threats to the objectives of the national Strat-
are growing rarer or disappearing tidal flats of the Wadden Sea. And egy on Biological diversity and of
– and this in turn has repercussions the picture is also gloomy for spe- the Federal nature Conservation
on others. In short: The many and cies which have specialised in wet- Act. In addition, there are numer-
various interdependencies in eco- lands or localised niches or which ous pieces of national and inter-
systems are changing. have only limited adaptive capacity. national legislation designed to
reduce the amounts of pollutants
Scientists estimate that as a result As well as the immediate effects and nutrients entering the eco-
of climate change up to 30 percent of climate change, there will be systems, because many plant and
of the animal and plant species cur- changes in land use – and that in animal species cannot cope with
rently living in Germany will die turn will have a great impact on them.
out in the decades ahead. At the habitats. new dykes, expansion of
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 31Seeking synergies genes are added. on the other group of the Federal Environment
hand, plants and animals need ministry and the Federal ministry
Efforts should be made to achieve somewhere else to go if conditions of Transport, Building and Urban
synergies – in other words to take within a region deteriorate. Con- Affairs is already looking into how
advantage of the fact that differ- necting the habitats of a species, this can be implemented. There
ent factors can work together and i.e. biotopes, therefore helps nat- are also plans for closer cooper-
that one measure may have desir- ural systems to adapt and grow ation with neighbouring states on
able effects in several areas. The stronger. Establishing such net- this issue.
federal and länder authorities works is the responsibility of the
should therefore investigate where länder. here they should cooper-
mutually supportive interaction ate closely with actors at both Further developing
between nature conservation, cli- local and EU level. protected areas
mate protection and climate adap-
tation can be used to maintain however, the situation is still that The federal and länder authori-
biological diversity. For example, new areas are being built on and ties should analyse how the exist-
wetlands or bogs not only store that natural connections between ing system of protected areas can
carbon dioxide (Co2), but also biotopes are being cut off. This is be adapted to future requirements
serve as flood buffers in the event an area where settlement, infra- arising from climate change.
of intense rainfall. This is the di- structure and transport planning The natura 2000 system of pro-
rection pursued by the national need to take a more circumspect tected areas already offers refuge
Strategy on Biological diversity approach. A research project is and adaptation zones on land and
and the national Sustainability currently underway which in 2009 at sea, and also areas of non-use.
Strategy, and also by the plans of is to draw up a concept for tak- It thus makes an important contri-
the Commission of the European ing better account of biotope net- bution to mitigating the adverse
Union (EU) and the EU parliament working in the planning of supra- effects of climate change on bio-
to stop the loss of biological diver- regional roads. A joint working logical diversity.
sity by 2010. Furthermore, the Fed-
eral ministry of Food, Agriculture
and Consumer protection has pro-
posed concrete measures for
preserving and making sustain-
able use of agro-biodiversity, i.e.
biological diversity in the agricul-
tural sector.
Connecting habitats
many species need sufficient space
if they are to survive successfully
in the long term. When space is
in short supply, genetic diversity
within the species declines, be-
cause the community of a species
can only be small and no fresh
32 ComBATInG ClImATE ChAnGE – ThE GErmAn AdApTATIon STrATEGySupporting affected
species
What does climate change mean
for seals or for bogland communi-
ties? The Federal Government and
the länder should join forces with
research institutions and associa-
tions to document the effects of
both climate change and adapta-
tion measures on species and bio-
topes. This can be taken as a reli-
able basis for deciding what can
and must be done. It will then be
necessary to draw up precaution-
ary programmes. Such data are
also needed by anyone who has to
assess encroachments and develop
compensatory measures.
In the case of species and biotopes grammes for the seas. help them? here there is a need
that are at great risk from climate Attention should also be focused for joint strategies for the develop-
change, efforts should be made to on coastal areas at risk of flood- ment of nature conservation and
reduce other risk factors as far as ing and estuary regions. how and coastal protection, in order to cre-
possible. There is a backlog of de- where can species find alterna- ate and protect alternative options
mand for species protection pro- tive habitats – and how can we for plants and animals.
Teufelsmoor in Lower Saxony Example of wetlands
If summers become drier and temperatures throughout the year
show an increase, wetland communities are faced with the prob-
lem of survival – a real challenge. There are already state assis-
tance programmes to alleviate the stresses. They seek to regener-
ate wetlands, stabilise water conditions in bog areas, and to ensure
that there is less draining of pasture. Furthermore, links between
lakes are to be preserved or restored and the structural diversity of
waters is to be promoted – for example by means of different bank
types, materials and bank plants. regular flooding and dry periods
are important for flood meadows.
There is a need to take more such measures. To this end, authori-
ties for nature conservation, agriculture and water management
should cooperate closely and involve land users as well.
ThE ConSEqUEnCES oF ClImATE ChAnGE – WhAT CAn WE do? 33You can also read
