U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
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U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
By Drew Lerner -- World Weather, Inc.
Kansas City, Feb. 16 (World Weather Inc.) - Cooling is still expected in the eastern
half of the nation in the last day or two of February and early March. The forecast has not
changed much from that of last week, despite a diminishing Madden-Julian Oscillation
(MJO) event in the western Pacific Ocean and seasonal changes taking place in some
circulation patterns. The next week to ten days will be warmer than usual with a return to
cooler conditions likely shortly thereafter
The MJO event that has been closely monitored for the past two to three weeks as it
moved from Africa across the Indian Ocean to Indonesia and Australia continues to show
signs of weakening while moving swiftly to the east and south. The event is centered on 160
degrees east longitude today, but its fast movement has the 15-day mean position back near
140 degrees east. The fast movement of the event has the atmosphere responding a little
more slowly than the movement of the event would normally dictate. That is why warmer
than usual weather is expected to just be getting under way this week. The warm up should
last for ten days in the Midwest, Plains and northeastern states minimizing supplemental
heating needs over the period.
MJO events centered near 140
and 160 degrees east longitude
correlate well with warmer than usual
weather in the eastern Midwest and
northeastern states. Once MJO events
reach the International Dateline (in
about a week to the days) they tend to
support a short term surge of cold air
moving through the eastern half of
North America.
Despite the weakening MJO event, there is still a moderate signal suggesting a
trend back toward cooler weather in the very last days of this month and into early
March. The cooling trend may just get started at the first of March and may need another
few days for a noticeable cooler than usual pattern for the eastern U.S.
The combined impact of weakening MJO intensity in the western Pacific Ocean
and seasonal warming in the atmosphere will make the next surge of cold air into the
nation's mid-section less intense than that of January and earlier this month.
Temperatures could still trend well below average, but probably not until the first week of
March and even then the cooling trend may take a little time to become focused on the
eastern states as is ultimately expected.
Today's Arctic Oscillation
(AO) Index suggests some
contraction of arctic air into the
higher latitudes will take place during
the next week. The AO will trend
higher for about a week and then
should turn a little lower. The last
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U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
By Drew Lerner -- World Weather, Inc.
week of February should find the index steadily falling suggesting the expansion of cooler
air back into the central and eastern parts of North America.
Most of the long term trend models that World Weather, Inc. uses suggest a return of
warm weather in the western U.S. and cool conditions in the east will take place in March
and that is taking precedent over the MJO event that appears to be weakening. The variance
predicted in AO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values over the next ten days
does offer a little more doubt in the forecast than in previous weeks. However, the trend is
in place and it fits well enough with the long term trend models to believe some kind of
verification will take place.
TWO WEEK FORECAST
Temperatures this week will quickly warm
up from the very cool conditions that
present in some eastern states today. A
broad region of unseasonably warm air will
build up over the Plains and Rocky
Mountain region over the next couple of
days before losing a little intensity as it
moves into the Midwest later this week.
Temperatures in the Midwest will warm
rapidly and cool back down to a seasonal
range in a relatively few number of days.
However, the bias for temperatures in the
Midwest during the Feb 19-24 period will be above average minimizing heating fuel
demand.
Most Atlantic Coast states will see their coolest weather today into Wednesday.
After Wednesday morning a steady warming trend is expected that should produce a full
week of above average warmth beginning late this week and lasting through the end of
February.
The second week of the two week outlook should provide a period of transition from
the warm weather dominating this week to a cooler regime for the Great Plains late in the
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U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
By Drew Lerner -- World Weather, Inc.
Feb. 25-Mar. 2 period. None of the eastern Midwest or northeastern states will be colder
than usual through Mar. 2, but cooling should be under way in the Plains and Midwest
when the second week draws to a close. Temperatures in the western U.S. may have a
cooler than usual bias during the second week of the two-week outlook, but a warming trend
should get under way early in March.
PAST WEEK'S
WEATHER
Temperatures this past
week were below average over
a large part of the Great Basin,
the central and southern Rocky
Mountain region, most of the
Great Plains and portions of
both the Midwest and
southeastern states.
Temperatures were well below
average in parts of the Plains
and interior western states, but
most of the heating oil and
natural gas consuming states
missed out on the coldest
conditions. Temperatures in the
Midwest ranged from near
normal in the east to about 4
degrees below average in the
west. Most of New England and
eastern New York state were
warmer than usual by just a few
degrees. Florida was also
warmer than usual.
Degree day
accumulations for the week
were above average in most of
the Great Plains, the central and
southern Rocky Mountain
region and the Great Basin.
Accumulations of 40 to 80 units
above average were noted in the
central and southern Plains
while 80 to more than 120 unit
departure from normal
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U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
By Drew Lerner -- World Weather, Inc.
accumulations occurred out west.
Meanwhile, degree-day accumulations in the Midwest and most eastern states were
considered normal during the past week. Season to date accumulations have continued
below average in many areas in the nation with the exception being in the far northern
Plains, upstate New York and portions of central Pennsylvania. A small part of the Great
Basin has experienced accumulations slightly above average so far this season as have some
of the Atlantic Coast states outside of New York and western New England. A large part of
the western and southern Plains, the western and lower Midwest, northern New England and
the far western states continue to report a milder than usual winter as far as degree day
accumulations are concerned.
The graphic below shows the relatively normal heating degree day accumulations
continuing in parts of the Midwest and northeastern states.
Seasonal HDDs to Date (Feb. 14)
Northern Cities
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
HDD
4392
2500
4338
4206
4217
4114
4057
3975
3870
3871
3891
3808
3699
3572
3487
3484
2000
3337
3133
3105
3094
2881
2881
1500
1000
500
Boston New York Wash DC Cleveland Cincinnati Chicago Denver
0
2003 NORMAL 2002
Seasonal HDDs to Date (Feb. 14)
Southern/Western Cities
3021
3300
2882
3100
2774
2900
2700
2500
2300
2100
HDD
1900
1700
1500
2217
1300
2069
2021
1829
1828
1100
1578
791
743
900
627
1175
1160
1152
1078
994
700
973
930
749
676
418
476
499
500
300
Atlanta Orlando New Orleans Dallas Houston Phoenix Los Angeles Seattle
2003 Normal 2002
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U.S. WEEKLY ENERGY OUTLOOK
By Drew Lerner -- World Weather, Inc.
All World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included
in this report constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without
notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made
regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World
Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation's
information in any business, trade or investment decision.
©2004 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will
result in prosecution.
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