The Importance Of Climate In the Upcoming Federal Election: Six Key Ridings 13th August 2021 - Climate Emergency Alliance
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The Importance Of Climate In the Upcoming Federal Election: Six Key Ridings 13th August 2021
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in these reports is based on results of Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized
surveys conducted between July 26th-August 5th, as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market
2021, 18 years of age or older, living in the federal research firms. Since our founding, we have been
electoral districts of West Vancouver-Sunshine providing actionable and data-driven insights to
Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Burnaby North-Seymour, our clients to help them make their most important
Kitchener Centre, Toronto Centre, Parkdale-High evidence-based strategic decisions.
Park and Malpeque.
Mainstreet has an impressive track record in
The sample sizes in each electoral district, along accurately forecasting election results in Canada and
with their corresponding margin of error, are as the United States and has become a trusted source
follows; for comprehensive market research, analysis and
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky advice. Our insights are found in major media outlets
Country, n=624, +/- 3.9% across the country.
Burnaby North-Seymour, n=558, +/- 4.1%
Kitchener Centre, n=601, +/- 4% Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member
Toronto Centre, n=574, +/- 4.1% of MRIA, WAPOR and AAPOR and exceeds all
Parkdale-High Park, n=600, +/- 4% Canadian and international standards for market
Malpeque, n=280, +/- 5.9% research and public opinion research.
The survey was conducted using automated CONTACT INFORMATION
telephone interviews (Smart IVR) and online In Ottawa:
samples. In the case of telephone interviews, Quito Maggi, President and CEO
respondents were interviewed on landlines and quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population in the surveyed ridings. In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
and was sponsored by 350.org
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
Voters Want Canada to Meet Climate Emergency, Willing to Shift Votes to Make it
Happen
Climate champions could unseat incumbents in key ridings
Vancouver, BC – A summer of extreme heat, fires and flooding, along with the release of another
sobering IPCC climate report are setting up an election where climate change could play a critical
role. National polling has already shown climate change is a top election issue across Canada, and
new data from Mainstreet Research confirms that in key ridings voters are deeply concerned about
climate change, and could be willing to shift their vote because of it.
“This summer really has demonstrated that climate change is an emergency that we have to deal
with here and now,” Amara Possian, Canada Campaign Director with 350.org said. “Voters are deeply
concerned not just that climate change is happening, but that politicians in Canada aren’t acting at the
scale and urgency that we need to tackle this crisis.”
Polling six possible swing ridings across the country, Mainstreet Research found:
At least 3 in 4 voters in all polled ridings considered climate change to be either very important or
somewhat important. Even among Conserative voters climate change was a major issue.
At least 1 in 3 voters would consider switching their vote to another candidate or party in order
to elect a climate champion in their riding. Liberal identifying voters in particular expressed a
willingness to change their vote to support climate champions.
This swing potential was most apparent in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country
where 43% of all voters would switch and nearly 48% of Liberal voters would switch.
“These findings clearly show that climate change is a very important issue for voters no matter who
they plan to vote for,” said Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet Research. “Candidates
in these key ridings must offer voters a clear vision to tackle climate change if they want to be
competitive in the upcoming election”.
With wildfires and heat expected to continue into the fall, and through a potential election, voters will
continue to feel the impacts of climate change while parties vie for their votes.
“With COVID-19, people saw what an emergency level government response can look like, and we
just haven’t been doing that when it comes to climate change,” Possian explained. “If candidates
deliver climate action at the scale we need, with a moratorium on fossil fuel expansion and a real just
transition plan, climate voters could rally behind them in a big way.”
-30-
Contact: Cam Fenton, cam@350.org, 604-369-2155If Burnaby
an election were held today, which
North-Seymour
candidate would you vote for?
Kitchener Centre
Burnaby North-Seymour Kitchener Centre
25.1% 25.8%
26.8%
25.1% 25.8%
32.8% 26.8%
32.8%
Burnaby
Burnaby North-Seymour
North-Seymour Kitchener Centre
Kitchener Centre
6.2%6.2%
4%4%
17.9%
17.9%
13.2% 14.3%
13.2% 14.3%
22.7%
11.1%
22.7%
11.1%
Malpeque Parkdale-High Park
Beech, Liberal Shein, Conservative Hanson, NDP Another Candidate Saini, Liberal Henein Thorn, Conservative Zubi, NDP Morrice. Green
Beech, Liberal Shein, Conservative
UndecidedHanson, NDP Another Candidate Saini, Liberal Henein Thorn,
Another ConservativeUndecided
Candidate Zubi, NDP Morrice. Green
Malpeque Parkdale-High Park
Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
19%
23%
19%
23%
34.5%
36.5% 34.5%
0.2% 36.5%
0.2%
2.9%
12.1%
12.1% Malpeque
Malpeque
2.9%
Parkdale-High Park
Parkdale-High Park
8.8%
8.8%
7%
7%
14.3%
16.6%
25.3% 14.3%
16.6%
25.3%
Toronto Centre West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country
MacDonald, Liberal Sanderson, Conservative Nash, NDP Virani, Liberal Pham, Conservative Taylor, NDP Capra, Green
MacDonald, Liberal
Keenan, Green Sanderson, Conservative
Another Candidate Nash, NDP
Undecided Virani, Liberal Pham, Conservative
Another Candidate Taylor, NDP
Undecided Capra, Green
Toronto Centre West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country
Keenan, Green Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
14.1%
24.3% 14.1% 23.1%
24.3% 23.1%
4%
4%
39.9%
39.9%
11.9% 11.9% West Vancouver-
2.3% 2.3% Toronto
TorontoCentre
Centre West Vancouver-Sea
Sea To Sky Country
To To
West Vancouver-Sea Sky Country
Sky Country
15.5%
15.5%
27.5%
19.4% 27.5%
8.6% 19.4%
9.5%
8.6%
9.5%
Ien, Liberal Sharma, Conservative Chang, NDP Paul, Green Weiler, Liberal Weston, Conservative Lewis, NDP Simpson, Green
Ien, Liberal Sharma, Conservative
Another Candidate Chang, NDP
Undecided Paul, Green Weiler, Liberal Weston,Another
Conservative
Candidate Lewis, NDP
Undecided Simpson, GreenHow Important Is The Issue Of Climate Change And The
Environment To You When Considering Which Candidate
To Vote For In The Upcoming Federal Election?
100%
6% 6%
90% 9%
12% 11% 10%
12% 6% 5% 12%
80%
7% 8%
8% 7%
70%
60%
26%
50% 30% 24%
28% 29%
32%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 45% 46% 48% 56% 51% 51%
Burnaby Kitchener Centre Malpeque Parkdale-High Park Toronto Centre West
North-Seymour Vancouver-Sea To
Sky Country
Very Important Somewhat Important Somewhat Unimportant Very Unimportant UnsureImagine If Local Polling Showed That Another Climate Champion
Other Than Your First Choice Had The Best Chance Of Winning.
Would You Be Willing To Change Your Vote In Order To Elect That
Climate Champion, Or Would You Stick With Your Current Vote
Regardless?
Burnaby North-Seymour 37% 30% 33%
Kitchener Centre 36% 31% 33%
Malpeque 39% 31% 30%
Parkdale-High Park 40% 31% 29%
Toronto Centre 40% 29% 31%
West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country 43% 29% 28%
Yes, I'm Willing No, Stick With Current Vote UnsureMethodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted in the federal electoral districts of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Burnaby North-Seymour, Kitchener Centre, Toronto Centre, Parkdale-High Park and Malpeque on July 26th-August 5th, 2021. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR) and online samples. In the case of telephone interviews, respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The surveys are intended to represent the voting population in these federal six electoral districts. The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by 350.org The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random. At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period. The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender. As this survey used non-probability sampling to collect this sample, a margin of error cannot be applied to this sample. However, the margins of error for a probability sample of these sizes are as follows; West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, n=624, +/- 3.9%; Burnaby North-Seymour, n=558, +/- 4.1%; Kitchener Centre, n=601, +/- 4%; Toronto Centre, n=574, +/- 4.1%; Parkdale-High Park, n=600, +/- 4%; Malpeque, n=280, +/- 5.9% Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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