Climate Change and Resiliency: Perspectives from Metrolinx - Dr. Quentin Chiotti Senior Advisor, Sustainability - ACT Canada Summit
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Climate Change and Resiliency: Perspectives from Metrolinx Dr. Quentin Chiotti Senior Advisor, Sustainability ACT CANADA SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY SUMMIT OCTOBER 31, 2017
TDM AND CLIMATE RESILIENCY: VICTORIA TRANSPORT POLICY INSTITUTE
• What is Resilience? • Ways to increase Resilience
• At an individual level people have • Increase transportation diversity.
transportation options that satisfy Insure that there are opportunities for
their transportation needs people to walk, cycle, rideshare,
• At a community level the carshare and travel by transit
transportation system can safely and • Increase network redundancy and
efficiently accommodate unusual connectivity
conditions • Increase facility design and
• At a design level it means that construction standards to withstand
facilities can withstand extreme and extreme conditions
unexpected conditions • Improve the ability to communicate
• At a strategic planning level it means with transportation system users
that a transportation system can under extreme conditions
meet long-term sustainability goals
2
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS
September 2017: 406.94 ppm CO2
Over 480 ppm CO2e
3
PREVENTING DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC
INTERFERENCE WITH THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
No more than 2°C Global Warming
No more than 450 PPM CO2
4
CATASTROPHIC LOSSES IN CANADA ($BILLIONS, 1983-2016)
National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy
(NRTEE) has estimated that under a 2°C global warming
scenario the annual costs of climate change to Canada could
grow from about $5 billion in 2020 to between $21 billion and
$43 billion by the 2050s (with a 5 percent chance that costs
could exceed $90 billion)
5
WHERE THE GLOBE SEEMS TO BE HEADED
MORE MITIGATION IS NEEDED ADAPTATION IS NECESSARY
COP 21 PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT WILL NOT STOP CLIMATE CHANGE
6
SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION: THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
• Heat waves will occur more often and last
longer (very likely);
• Fewer cold temperature extremes and
more frequent hot temperature extremes
will occur (virtually certain);
2021
Sixth Report • Extreme precipitation events will become
2022
?????? more intense and frequent in many regions
(very likely)
7
FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL RESPONSE: MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Bill 6: “Infrastructure
planning and
investment should
minimize the impact of
infrastructure on the
environment and
infrastructure… should
be designed to be
resilient to the effects
of climate change.”
8
ONTARIO’S GHG EMISSION’S TARGET CHALLENGE
ONTARIO’S TARGETS: 6% BELOW 1990 BY 2015; 15% BELOW 1990 BY 2020;
37% BELOW 1990 BY 2030; 80% BELOW 1990 BY 2050
9
OVER $30B IN INVESTMENT IN THE GTHA’S RAPID TRANSIT NETWORK
EXPANDING GO TRAIN 74 KM OF NEW 68 KM OF NEW CONNECTING IT ALL
SERVICE LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT BUS RAPID TRANSIT TOGETHER
More service on all lines Under construction: Partially in-service, Expanding and revitalizing
Union Station, the heart of
Eglinton Crosstown with remainder under the regional network
Electric trains, every 15 construction:
minutes or better in In procurement: Completed PRESTO
Viva in York Region
both directions, for most Finch West deployment on TTC
GO customers Hurontario Mississauga Transitway
Hamilton B-Line
23 more stations and In design / planning:
line extensions to serve In design / planning: Hamilton A-Line
new markets Sheppard East
10REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Since 2008, Metrolinx has
been guided by its
Regional Transportation
Plan which is a multi-
modal, long range plan for
the GTHA
Developed in consultation
with municipalities,
residents and many
stakeholders across the
region
Provides strategic direction
for planning, designing and
building a regional
transportation network that
enhances our quality of
life, our environment, and
our prosperity
11CLIMATE RESILIENCY WITHIN THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
A region that is well serviced by alternative
modes of transportation will be more resilient
to potential travel disruptions caused by such
extreme weather events. The Draft 2041 RTP
addresses how resiliency to climate change
can be built into the regional transportation
system by designing for the weather of the
future, updating infrastructure to withstand the
impacts of climate change and developing
policies and protocols to respond to extreme
weather events.
12METROLINX IS EXPERIENCING CLIMATE CHANGE
• 126 mm of rain in 2 hours • Ice storm
• 1,400 passengers • Blackouts across
stranded on flooded GTHA
Richmond Hill GO train • Widespread
• Washouts on Lakeshore W disruption in
2013 and Richmond Hill 2013 service
• 22 cm of snowfall • 16 days >32ºC in 2016, the 5th
overnight highest year since 1967
• Widespread • Risk of track warping, sun kinks
disruption in service and grass fires
• First September when slow
2015 2016
order issued
13CLIMATE HISTORY AND TRENDS: PAST 50 YEARS
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES* WINTER SNOWFALL*
8 90
7
80
Number of days 32°C
20
15 RECORDED FLOOD EVENTS SINCE 1979
10
ALONG THE LOWER DON RIVER**
5 1981, 2000, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year *RSI Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP); ** Metrolinx
14WHAT TO EXPECT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE*
Number of “Hot Days” Cooling/Heating 2-hour Rainfall Intensity***
(>32°C)** Degree Days** 1 in 10-Year Storm
51 800 90 mm
Sept
700
80 mm
600
70 mm
Aug 500
60 mm
400
50 mm
26 300
200
40 mm
Jul
100 30 mm
13 0 20 mm
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7 Jun Historical CDD Historical HDD 10 mm
RCP 8.5 2020s CDD RCP 8.5 2020s HDD
May RCP 8.5 2050s CDD RCP 8.5 2050s HDD
0 mm
Hist. 2050 2080 Hist. 2050 2080
RCP 8.5 2080s CDD RCP 8.5 2080s HDD
Hist. 2020 2050 2080
*Based on climate data and projections from Environment Canada, Western University and Risk Sciences International (RSI). **Toronto Pearson International Airport *** Toronto Island Airport
15OUR COMMITMENT TO BECOMING CLIMATE RESILIENT
16GOAL 1: BECOME CLIMATE RESILIENT
2 Key Actions to achieve Goal 1 in the Sustainability Strategy:
1.1 Finalize our corporate Climate Adaptation
Plan. This includes strategies to ensure that
capital assets that are designed, built, and
delivered by Metrolinx are resilient to the
impacts of climate change.
1.2 Develop climate resilience requirements
for inclusion within technical standards,
manuals, guidelines, Alternative Finance
Procurement (AFP) project agreements, and
project specific output specifications.
17CLIMATE RESILIENCY AND SERVICE
• Service disruption protocols
• Flood monitoring protocol reroutes
trains away from the Lower Don
Transportation Corridor
• Bus bridges can be established
• GO Transit Service Disruption
Protocol allowing GO customers to
use TTC services for no additional
charge
• Corporate Snow Plan – schedule
implemented that provides safe
and reliable transportation for
customers
18CLIMATE RESILIENCY AND MOBILITY MANAGEMENT
Seemingly small but
important step
towards resiliency
• Incorporate extreme weather disruptions into Triplinx across the GTHA in real
time
• Ensure that accessibility issues are considered (e.g. station access during power
outages)
• Impact of extreme weather conditions on mode choice (e.g. heat stress)
• Extended seasons for active commuting
• Resiliency and interdependencies with other transit agencies
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