The Economic impact of COVID 19: A potential to press the restart button? Prudence Moeketsi Presented at DEWCOM on 10 June 2020 - Methodist Church ...
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The Economic impact of COVID 19: A potential to press the restart button?
Prudence Moeketsi
Presented at DEWCOM on 10 June 2020
Introduction
It is not possible to assess with any certainty the implications of COVID-19 on the local
and global economy, both generally in terms of how long the current crisis may last
and more specifically in terms of its impact on specific organisations including the
Church. The scenario is complicated by the fact that the South African economy was at a
very weak position at the beginning of 2020. This paper gives a brief overview of the
potential economic impact in South Africa, the impact on systems, the missiology of the
Church during and post COVID 19 and the need to interrogate new ways of doing things
for sustainability and conclude by looking at the need for individuals to change
behaviour for the betterment of society.
The Economic Impact – Supply and Demand
From the supply side of the economy, businesses faced significant operational
challenges due to authorities implementing measures to contain and/or prevent the
spread of COVID-19. Some people argue that Level 5 lockdown was necessary but
other levels will prolong the devastation on the economy. Hence, legal minds are
challenging the constitutionality of the process. From the demand side, the
purchasing activity of goods and services was and is still is significantly impacted. The
presence of the first and third worlds in South Africa was clearly brought forward by
the pandemic. The informal sector, with its inability to access more advanced systems
was badly affected, especially during Level 5 lockdown. But the survival instincts
dominated the need to protect oneself and curb the spread of the virus as life in some
areas in the townships continued as if COVID 19 is non-existent. The inability to buy in
bulk and stay at home forced poor communities to be out in the street to hustle.
1The table here below gives a details of lockdown levels.
Risk-adjusted strategy for economic activity
Sectors Transport Movement
permitted restrictions restrictions
Level 5: High virus Only essential Bus services, taxi No inter-provincial
spread and/or low services services, e- hailing movement of people,
health system and private motor except for
readiness vehicles may operate transportation of
at restricted times, goods and exceptional
with limitations on circumstances (e.g.
vehicle capacity and funerals)
stringent hygiene
requirements
Level 4: Moderate to Bus services, taxi No inter-provincial
high virus spread, All essential services, plus services, e- hailing movement of people,
with moderate the following and private motor except for
readiness vehicles may operate transportation of
• Food retail stores
at all times of the day, goods and exceptional
already permitted to be with limitations on circumstances (e.g.
open permitted may sell vehicle capacity and funerals)
stringent hygiene
full line of products requirements
within
existing stock
• All agriculture
(horticulture,
export
agriculture
including wool
and wine,
floriculture
and
horticulture,
and related
processing)
• Forestry, pulp and paper
• Mining (open cast mines
at 100% capacity, all
other mines at 50%
capacity)
• All financial and
professional services
• Global business services
for export markets
• Postal and
telecommunications
services
• Fibre optic and IT
services
• Formal waste
recycling (glass,
plastic, paper
and metal)
No inter-provincial
Level 3: • Licensing and • Bus services, taxi movement of people,
Moderate virus permitting services, services, e- hailing except for
spread, with moderate deeds offices and and private motor transportation of
Readiness other government vehicles may goods and exceptional
services designated by operate at all circumstances (e.g.
the Minister of Public times of the day, funerals)
Service and with limitations on
Administration vehicle
• Take away restaurants • capacity and stringent
2Sectors Transport Movement
permitted restrictions restrictions
and online food delivery hygiene
• Liquor retail within • requirements
restricted hours • Limited
• Clothing retail passenger rail
restored, with
• Hardware stores stringent hygiene
• Stationery, personal conditions in
electronics and office place
Limited domestic air
equipment production travel, with a
and retail restriction on the
number of flights per
• Books and educational
day and authorisation
products based on the reason
• E commerce and for Travel
delivery services
• Clothing and textiles
manufacturing at 50%
capacity
• Automotive
manufacturing
• Chemicals
• Bottling
• Cement and steel
• Machinery and
equipment
• Global Business Services
• SANRAL construction
and maintenance
• Transnet at
100%
Movement between
Level 2: • Construction • Domestic air travel provinces at Level 1
Moderate • All other retail restored and 2 restrictions
virus spread, with • All other manufacturing • Car rental
high readiness
• Mining (all mines at services
restored
100% capacity
• All government services
• Installation, repairs and
maintenance
• Domestic work and
cleaning services
• Informal waste
pickers
Level 1: Low virus All sectors All modes of Interprovincial
spread, high health transport, with movement allowed,
system readiness stringent hygiene with restrictions on
conditions in place international travel
Source: Risk adjusted strategy for economic activity by the Government of South Africa
Altman(2020), the Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, in her
interview on 7 May 2020 argues that the township economy needed a different set of
lockdown levels given the socio-economic conditions that prevail there. van der
Heever (2020) refers to townships as undownlockable. One piece of evidence to this
was seen in the Minister of Human Settlement, Ms Lindiwe Sisulu, in her attempt to
create social distance by removing some shacks to some temporary residential space.
Social distancing in the informal market was and is still a problem. Vulnerable groups
3like the elderly and people with disability faced the cold weather in May 2020 as they
woke very early to que for their social grants. There were some visuals of elders
sleeping overnight at the SASSA office. The critical question is whether are there any
systems that can be put in place to alleviate this plight.
There is now more uncertainty whether South Africa will move from Level 3, 2, and 1
as planned or the Constitutional Court will, finally, rule against the implementation of
the levels. Either way, strategic interventions need to be put in place.
Health and Economic Strategies
Van der Heever (2020) points out that the “only viable pathway out of the COVID-19 crisis is
therefore to integrate the health and economic strategies into a single approach. This
requires a total strategy of Government – one that is weighted proportionately to address
the principal risks facing the country at this time”.
There are five strategic considerations to such a risk-adjusted approach.
First, the health prevention strategy must be organised with two objectives in mind:
first, it must be compatible with an opening of the economy; and second, it should be
designed to have positive economic spinoffs.
Second, social programmes aimed at income protection, such as social grants and
unemployment insurance, should be implemented at scale to simultaneously address
social protection needs and the need for domestic economic demand stimulation.
Third, non-health-related economic strategies need to address the shocks to both the
demand and supply sides of the domestic economy.
Fourth, those parts of the strategy that require ongoing rapid decisions and the
deployment of resources need to be supported by a government command structure
that is fit-for-purpose.
Fifth, all parts of the strategy require rapid feedback on performance and constant
useful public communication.
Once a viable strategic approach has been determined by government, it has to adopt it
together with all the associated interventions with a high degree of urgency, commitment
and adaptability. (van der Heever 2020). However, government needs other stakeholders
(including churches) on board in order to be able to achieve positive results.
In his article titled “The role of the church in socio-economic transformation: reformation as
a transformation process” Modise explains that the ecumenical church (SACC) mandated
the member churches what to do in order to address the challenges of poverty and
inequality. These mandates are presented in a table form here below and can still play a
critical role during and post COVID 19 as churches respond to the economic devastation
caused by the pandemic.
4Given the detailed table presented above, my assumption is that the church leadership
together with relevant stakeholders will dissect the content and chart the way forward for
the broader society
CHARTING THE WAY FORWARD
Leffel (2017) argues that “whether we like it or not, we are emerging into a different world.
It feels strange and we can’t see it clearly at this point, or even know what to call it. But
whatever the emerging world will become it will need a new consciousness to guide it,
especially if we want that world to be a good one”.
Dreyden and Vos points out that in the industrial age “we came to confuse education with
schooling; health with sickness-treatment and hospitals; law with lawyers. We came to
regard education as something someone provided for you. We believed that health was
something you purchased from the doctors, specialists and hospitals” (2012:89). The
phenomenon is changing at a very fast rate. The new do-it-yourself revolution involves
5taking control of your own life. The faith communities can play a critical role in empowering
the less fortunate individuals through their mission work.
Reggie McNeal states that the rise of the missional church is the single biggest development
in Christianity since the Reformation (2009:xiii). He points out that this is not doing church-
as-usual. Going missional requires three shifts: (1) from internal to external in terms of
ministry focus, (2) from programme development to people development in terms of core
activity and (3) from church-based to kingdom-based in terms of leadership agenda (McNeal
2009:xiv).
In his discussion paper, Shaking the context and creating a new way of doing Church:
Missiological Reflection, Mothlodi (2020) brings forward the notion that COVID 19 has
“exposed the complacency or limitation of the Church” where Church has been reduced to a
Sunday gathering for a three hour service. “Our (the Church) missional programmes have
not been able to attack the root course of the perpetual state of poverty of the poor”
(2020:4). In his submission he states that “the missiological shape of (the) emerging Church
…. will be shaped by three major factors: (1) The relevance of the Church; (2) The Identity of
the Church and (3) how the Identity and Relevance of the Church relate to the context in
which the church is found” (Mothlodi 2020:1).
Arguing from another angle, Papa (2020), in his YouTube presentation at a Family Life
Seminar states that most development processes should be at a micro-level, a family level.
This is where governance starts. This is where a child is groomed from a very young age on
how to communicate with others, respect others, not to steal, humility etc. These are
attributes that cannot be learnt at a matric or university level. He believes that omitting the
critical steps lead to PhD candidates in communication who are unable to communicate
with their family members or high ranking government officials who are unable to manage
the resources entrusted to them and get involved in corruption. He says, in short, a family is
a building block for communities, countries and the world at large.
The devastating socio-economic impact of COVID 19 is undisputed given the rising numbers
of casualties with associated opportunity costs. Not being able to see the corpse as a last
ritual is likely to have a lasting effect on some families with its own psychological problems.
There is a need to put programmes in place to properly go through the stages of grief. On
the other hand, the reduced cost of burials is welcome. In the past funerals, especially in the
Black communities, have been extremely wasteful.
The owners of informal and small businesses had to devise means to remain above water
and not drown. To some extent, individuals as well, had to learn cost saving strategies. The
Church, on the other hand, grabbed the opportunity for online preaching and teaching. But
a lot more can be done given the infrastructure that lie wasting from Monday to Friday.
Poverty and inequality needs to be tackled from its roots. Who is better positioned than the
Church, which is able to remind individuals that they are made in the image of God (Genesis
1:27)and have been given authority …. to overcome all power of the enemy (Luke 10:19). A
number of income generating initiatives can come from the church, especially in the area of
education and skills development. There is an urgent need to get to the basics like animal
farming and planting of crops for sustainable livelihoods.
6The acts of commission and/or omission has led to a number of socio-economic ills that face
our country. It is not time for pointing fingers or feelings of self -righteousness. But a time
of introspection. Most of us, if not all of us, are required to respond to God’s unconditional
love through repentance which leads to forgiveness and finally lead to redemption
(Beneke 2015).
Repentance is more than regret or sorrow for wrong that one has done or good that one
has failed to do. It is a determination to change, through the power of the Holy Spirit, for
the better in the future.
Forgiveness means to be pardoned, or to absolve someone from the guilt of the sin; and to
renounce the anger or resentment against them. God offers us forgiveness when we repent
of our sin. However, to ensure that we can freely receive His forgiveness, we must be willing
to forgive others who offend or sin against us. Matthew 6:9-15.
Redemption is the act of God which sets us free from the power of evil, sin and death.
Redemption (and salvation) are a gift of God. Salvation is a process and it is achieved
through: God the Father who chose us; God the Son who died for us, and God the Holy
Spirit who keeps us (Beneke 2015).
CONCLUDING REMARKS
This paper is not exhaustive but the angle of the argument is that COVID 19 gives South
Africa an opportunity to press the restart button. A chance to open a vast number of
opportunities and create space for hope of a better future. Space to implement workable
solutions that will ultimately contribute positively to the Gross Domestic Product of the
country.
We thank God for sparing and protecting our lives amidst the scourge of COVID 19 and may
the souls of the departed rest in peace.
REFERENCES
TechCentral,. 2020. Interview: Miriam Altman on the lockdown, e-commerce and saving
the economy. [Online video] www.youtube.com. [Accessed 6 June 2020].
Beneke, R., 2015. Lay Minister’s Training. Anglican Church of Southern Africa. Diocese of
the Highveld. Benoni.
Dreyden, G and Vos J., 2012. The New Learning Revolution. Continum, London.
Leffel, G., 2017: Is Christianity finished as a source of inspiration for progressive social
change? Viewed on 6 June 2020. www.opendemocracy.net
McNeal, R., 2009: Missional Renaissance: Changing the scorecard for the church. Jossey-
Bass, San Francisco, CA.
7Motlhodi, S,.2020: Shaking the context and creating a new way of doing church:
Missiological Reflection. A Discussion Paper. DEWCOM May 2020.
Modise, L J,. 2018: The role of the church in socio-economic transformation: reformation
as a transformation process. Viewed on 6 June 2020. www.scielo.org.za
Dywili, S,. 2018.Family Life Seminar. [Online video] www.youtube.com. [Accessed 6 June
2020].
Van der Heever, A,. 2020. Towards a risk based strategy for managing the COVID 10
epidemic. A modelling analysis. Viewed on 6 June 2020. www.wits.ac.za.
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