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TO SUBSCRIBE CALL 913-383-1161 OR WRITE TO WORLDWEATHER@BIZKC.RR.COM The Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator Volume XIII, Issue X http://www.worldweather.cc September 3, 2021 World Improving Harvest Weather For Wet Areas Weather At Weather conditions well for some of the areas od of unsettled weather, A Glance across the Prairies are in the Prairies that failed but that is not going to be trending drier now follow- to get significant rain over the case. For the next ten Western U.S. corn and ing a few weeks of fre- the past few weeks. Some days most of the Prairies soybean areas have ex- quent and sometimes sig- of the areas that missed will not be bothered by perienced a significant nificant rainfall. The drier out on the greatest rainfall much “serious” rainfall boost in topsoil mois- weather will last at least were in the southwestern and most of the wettest ture that has stopped the next ten days offering Prairies and in particular areas will have a chance to the decline in soybean potential for improved the east-central and south- dry down. production potential field working conditions. eastern parts of Alberta as well as some areas in The most impressive Southeastern Europe’s There will be another west-central and south- boost in soil moisture in dry bias has also been opportunity for rain later western Saskatchewan. the Prairies has been in briefly slowed by rain this month for those areas Manitoba and in a few that missed recent rain, In contrast, areas in eastern Saskatchewan Brazil rainfall late this but concern remains that the southeastern Prairies locations where the out- month through October the overriding bias for the and some in western Al- look for next spring might will be very important Prairies will be a north- berta actually received be better if the moisture for early corn and soy- westerly flow pattern aloft rain too often for a while received can be conserved bean planting this autumn and winter and fieldwork was on hold in the soil until then. Dry- that will perpetuate a lim- for a while. This delay ing is expected to domi- Argentina is still drier ited precipitation pattern. generated a little fear that nate a large part of the biased in the west, de- the drought would be fol- autumn and the situation spite recent rainfall That may not bode very lowed by an extended peri- will be closely monitored. Drought potentials in the U.S. Plains and western Midwest is still moderately high for 2022 with hard red win- ter wheat areas expect- ing to dry out this au- tumn India’s Monsoon has performed well this year Australia’s winter crop areas are poised for good crop performance this year, although wor- ry over a wet harvest remains.
VOLU ME X III ISSUE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 2 Prairies Drought Not Over; Worry To Carry Into 2022 No one in the eastern Prairies can cult for a serious soaking of rain. La Nina winters normally include complain too loudly about the rain cold temperatures and frequent snow that has fallen since mid-August. Now, most of us remember years of significance along the front range Manitoba and parts of eastern Sas- in the past in which weather across of mountains and nearby crop areas katchewan received some badly need- the Prairies in the autumn became in southwestern Alberta, Those areas ed rain that might have occurred too quite wet and that is always a possi- and far southern Alberta as well as late for most crops, but the moisture bility, but looking at the anticipated the far southwestern corner of Sas- as needed for 2022. Hopefully, the upper air wind flow pattern it may be katchewan and Montana will experi- moisture will not be lost to evapora- difficult to get a general soaking to ence enough winter snowfall to im- tion between now and the winter take place in October. Not impossi- prove runoff and spring moisture freeze up. ble, but difficult. potentials. It would be best if the A southwesterly flow pattern aloft snow falls soon enough to blanket the In contrast, many areas in east- ground before bitter cold air arrives. central and southern Alberta, south- is needed to induce a wet weather pattern this autumn. The 18-year That way the moisture will soak into western and west-central Saskatche- the soil as warming takes place peri- wan and a few pockets in other areas cycle suggests that the periods in odically in the winter. If the ground of the Prairies are freezes before the still critically dry, snow falls then the despite a little rain- potential for the fall recently. Some moisture to get areas in this dry into the soil will be region received al- much reduced. most no rain over the past few weeks The bottom line while others re- is this….net drying ceived some, but will occur for the not nearly enough next ten days fol- to change the bot- lowed by a new tom line. period of possible unsettled weather Drought is cer- that may be cen- tainly not over in tered on the second the Prairies and half of this month. World Weather, That will be fol- Inc. is concerned lowed by the devel- about the weather opment of La Nina patterns that are which we experience a southwesterly and a change in upper air wind flow expected this late autumn and winter. flow pattern aloft will be extremely that will not stop precipitation from The patterns are not going to allow short in duration and limited in coming, but reduce its frequency and much additional relief for some areas number. That does not mean we can- significance. Winter will be cold and and that leaves the drier parts of the not get significant moisture to fall, dry in the heart of the Prairies, but Prairies in a very tenuous position for but it does mean the events will be of wet biased in the southwestern part spring 2022. short duration which limits the po- of Alberta and extreme southwestern Do not read more into this than tential for us to get enough moisture Saskatchewan. That will offer some what is being stated. There will be in the dry areas to remove the con- moisture for use in the spring to other opportunities for moisture prior cern about early spring 2022. those areas. The remainder of the to the annual freeze up and another central Prairies will likely come to La Nina is supposed return in spring with large moisture deficits round of unsettled weather should October. Once that pattern is in occur in the second half of this month. still remaining and a deep concern place it will be reinforcing the north- over spring precipitation. The problem with that period of unset- westerly flow pattern aloft and that tled weather is that there may be a will restrict the amount of moisture The colder winter this year should little more cool air around which will that will be present in our atmos- keep our snow around longer than push the jet stream to the south and phere reducing the potential for the last year even if it is light and the that will reduce precipitable water in big storms, but not removing that as moisture as it melts will help at least the atmosphere making it more diffi- a potential entirely. a little in getting started in 2022.
VVOOLU ME X1I,I I,ISSUE L U ME ISS UE8 X TTHE HECCAANAD NADI A I ANNAG AGRRIC ICUULTU LTURE RE WE WEAT ATHER HERPR PROG OGNOS NOSTTIC ICAT ATOR OR PAGE 3 September Weather Bias Too Familiar September weather is expected near normal precipitation as will the ba/U.S. border. That will not be look much like that of the entire sum- Interlake region of Manitoba. Most enough precipitation to seriously mer with precipitation often being other areas will experience at least a change the moisture profile, but every limited and temperatures warmer slightly below average precipitation drop of precipitation will be welcome. than usual. The driest part of the bias if not a more notable shortage of Prairies will be the same region that new moisture. Farther to the north precipitation is already driest, including the south- will be more limited once again. Much west and west-central parts of Sas- Temperatures in September will of west-central and northwestern Sas- katchewan, southern and east-central also be a little warmer than usual. katchewan and east-central and far Alberta and a few neighboring areas. The greatest warmth will occur in northeastern Alberta through Prince and near to the Number One High- Albert and Saskatoon to Hudson Bay Precipitation elsewhere will be way and areas south to the U.S. and Swan River, Manitoba will get near to below average which does not below average precipitation along translate into much potential for a October will be the best month for with west-central Manitoba and ex- notable boost in topsoil moisture. The some additional precipitation to im- treme east-central Saskatchewan. exception will be in the southern pact the Prairies. The greatest mois- Peace River region and in particular ture will fall near the Rocky Moun- Temperatures in October will be from Grand Prairie and Grande tains in Alberta and from Slave Lake cooler than usual in much of the Cache to Slave Lake; including the to Edson and westward to the Grand eastern Prairies while near to above Swan Hills, the Fox Creek, White- Prairie and Grande Cache areas. average out in the west. court and Edson areas. Fieldwork Looking ahead into November, Another area of relatively normal may be delayed in that region addi- World Weather, Inc. sees some light precipitation will impact areas near tionally this autumn due to rain and precipitation and cooler biased weath- the U.S. border from southern Alber- eventually some snow. Much of the er. ta to the far southwestern Manito- Highway 2 corridor in Alberta will see LOW CONFIDENCE
V O L U ME X I I I, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 4 Selected Weather Images From Around The World Canada’s Prairies are still among the driest areas in the world, despite recent rain. Portions of central and eastern Russia’s crop areas have dried out this summer and autumn and like trouble spots in North America this area may deal with dryness again next year. Dryness in the United States was eased across the western Corn and Soybean Belt while a part of the U.S. Plains were still drier than usual. Dryness in southeastern Europe, like the western U.S. Corn Belt has been partially eased from dryness in the past couple of weeks. Argentina also received some significant rain during the last days of August and first days of September lifting topsoil moisture ahead of new season wheat growth improving crop development potentials. Dryness is still a concern, though, in Cordoba and Santiago de Estero, Argentina and in Queensland, Australia. France has been drying out recently while a large part of central through northeastern Europe has trended wetter. Southern Brazil remains favorably moist while rain is needed elsewhere.
V O L U ME X I I I, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 5 Central India May Get Too Much Rain Gujarat and much of southern as of Maharashtra and Gujarat to Moisture totals by next Friday morn- and eastern Rajasthan recently re- the west. Scattered showers and ing will range from 0.25 to 1.00 inch ceived much-needed rain. These are- thunderstorms will occur often before and locally more. Western Rajasthan as were gradually drying down to- and after this event and the com- will remain too dry for aggressive ward the end of August before recent bined rainfall for the week ending growth and concern will remain high rain replenished soil moisture. There next Friday morning will range from for production cuts in unirrigated were growing concerns over slowed 2.00 to 6.00 inches in much of central production areas; including guar as crop development, most notably in India. However, the greatest rain well as some cotton, grain and some of the cotton and soybean areas will fall to the left of the monsoon oilseed crops. Portions of Punjab will of Gujarat. Development conditions depression center suggesting 4.00 to also remain a little too dry for ideal improved as the rain fell. Additional 10.00 inches will occur across much growth, though the rain should help precipitation is slated for these areas of Telangana to central and north- support some new development. through mid-month that will main- eastern Maharashtra tain a favorable environment. Most With that said, it is very im- other production areas saw good crop Flooding will be possible in many portant to remember that early sea- conditions during the past week and areas, but the region from Telangana son cotton is already in the open boll will see mostly favorable conditions and northeastern Andhra Pradesh to stage of development in northwest- persist through the end of next week; northeastern Maharashtra will be ern India and too much rain now although flooding rain may evolve in most impacted and some crop dam- would harm some of those crops. parts of central India. age should be expected. The remaining produc- Two significant, late tion areas in eastern, season monsoon depres- southern, and northern sions are expected to evolve India will see a good mix of in the Bay of Bengal during monsoonal rain and sun- the coming ten days and shine through the end of move inland across the next week. Rainfall will heart of India. These two range from 1.00 to 4.00 systems will generate some inches with local amounts heavy to excessive rainfall of 6.00 inches or more from over ground that is already Uttar Pradesh into Bihar, saturated and that may Bangladesh, and the East- lead to some significant ern States. Portions of flooding. Each of these Tamil Nadu and southern monsoon depressions will fringes of Karnataka and diminish over central India Andhra Pradesh will also with remnants to drift far- only receive 0.50 to 1.00 ther to the west and northwest inch of rain. The environ- reaching into Gujarat and Rajasthan Gujarat and much of southern, ment will remain mostly favorable where some extremely beneficial late central and eastern Rajasthan will for aggressive development through monsoon season rain will fall just also get rain from this first monsoon the end of next week, though pockets head of the monsoon withdrawal. depression. Cotton, corn, sorghum, in Tamil Nadu may trend a little too The moisture in Gujarat and Raja- soybean, groundnut and rice crops dry at times. sthan will be ideal for late season will all benefit from the moisture as will some pulses. No flooding of sig- Some computer weather forecast crop development, but the rain in nificance will occur in these areas, models have suggested a second central India may culminate in some but the ground will become saturat- monsoon depression may evolve in notable flooding. ed. The remaining areas in central the Bay of Bengal at the end of next The first monsoon depression is India will have plenty of moisture for week around Sep. 10. If that system expected to move from Odisha and aggressive growth. evolves it could move on a path very far northeastern Andhra Pradesh similar to that of this coming week Sunday through southern Chhattis- Western and northern Rajasthan producing another wave of signifi- garh to Madhya Pradesh by Tuesday into Punjab will only have a few op- cant rain across central India and morning and it should dissipate over portunities for rain through the end further raising concern over the con- southern Rajasthan shortly thereaf- of next week. Much of the rain will dition of many crops. More flooding ter. Rain will fall heavily along this occur today and again toward the might occur if the second depression path and into some neighboring are- middle and latter part of next week. evolves as advertised.
V O L U ME X I I I, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 6 La Nina’s Slow Return Will Be Good For Some Areas La Nina will be making a slow seed planting late this month after slightly cooler than usual. The warm- return to the world weather scene some significant warming takes ing trend was expected to linger into over the next several weeks. The place. The bulk of planting will come early September which is the reason event is expected to be weaker than after the nation becomes safe from why aggressive La Nina development last year’s La Nina and its slower frost and freeze events. Eventually, is not very likely. evolution should be timely for some traditional La Nina conditions will crop areas to bypass some of the evolve and that will dry out some However, the subsurface ocean more threatening impacts that can important corn and sunseed produc- water temperatures in the eastern occur in such an event. Brazil and tion areas raising crop moisture equatorial Pacific Ocean were defi- Argentina should be nitely cooler biased as among the bigger win- they have been since late ners of a slower La Nina July. The cool ocean wa- evolution, but eventually ter pool beneath the sur- traditional anomalies face in the eastern equa- are expected and that torial Pacific is poised to could bring a more clas- be lifted upward toward sic response to crop are- the surface by an as around the world. upwelling current of wa- ter. Neutral ENSO condi- tions were still present The upwelling cur- across the eastern equa- rent has not been very torial Pacific Ocean at strong recently. Fore- the end of August and casters are looking for a the ocean surface tem- strong easterly wind to perature changes noted develop across the sur- at that time were mixed face of the eastern equa- enough to suggest no torial region of the Pacif- aggressive movement to ic Ocean to help enhance La Nina conditions was the upwelling current. A going to occur in Septem- boost in easterly surface ber. If that statement is wind speeds will proba- true then Brazil’s soy- bly occur late this month bean country will have a and in October at which much better opportunity time the upwelling of to experience a relatively cold ocean water will normal distribution of become more significant pre-monsoonal showers and La Nina will make a and thunderstorms in more notable advance- the second half of Sep- ment in its development. tember and early Octo- Later this month ber. An aggressive evolu- there should also be po- tion into La Nina would tential for the cold water beneath the hinder the rainfall and could result stress potentials that might harm surface of the ocean to possibly inten- in a poor start to the rainy season yields in time. sify. However, there is a tongue of like last year, but that does not seem warmer ocean water that has shifted very likely based on the latest data. August ocean temperature chang- east of the International Dateline es in the eastern equatorial Pacific recently and that may reduce the For Argentina, the slow evolution Ocean were mixed with areas near into La Nina will also help the na- intensity of the cool pool for a little the coasts of South America and Cen- while in early to mid-September. The tion’s winter wheat crop get some tral America turning cooler while timely rainfall in September. That warm tongue of water in the subsur- warming occurred in a much larger face ocean water should break away moisture will be good for early sea- part of the eastern equatorial Pacific son crop development. The moisture from the larger pool of warm water Ocean. The warming trend occurred in the western Pacific Ocean limiting in Argentina will also help support a while ocean surface temperatures at favorable start to early corn and sun- the duration of any warming trend in the end of August were near to just eastern Pacific subsurface water
V O L U ME X I I I, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 7 La Nina’s Slow Return Good For Some Areas (continued from page 6) temperatures. ter will be cold and drier biased and more significant than that of last the same may be true for a part of year. Argentina will have a dry bias NOAA’s computer forecast model central Asia. Western Europe may be in the east, but western crop areas continues to be a leader in ENSO warmer biased with less than usual where the largest portion of corn, event predictions, although it gets a precipitation and China weather will soybeans, peanuts and sorghum are little too aggressive at times. The be mixed with a warmer bias to the produced should experience a good latest model forecast suggests aggres- winter, despite a few impressive distribution of rain this summer. sive evolution of La Nina conditions drops in temperature infrequently. Dryness in eastern Argentina, Uru- this month, but for the reasons we guay, southern Paraguay and have already stated we believe that Australia weather is expected to southern Brazil will result in some the more aggressive cooling of ocean be fine through the spring, but this negative impact on summer crop surface water will be delayed until summer there will be a rising poten- yields. late this month and it will be greatest tial for excessive rainfall in Queens- in October. land and New South Wales. That wet Coffee, sugarcane and citrus are- as of Brazil will Because of this experience an er- slower evolution in ratic start to the La Nina, the anom- rainy season fol- alies of weather lowed by a favora- around the world ble distribution of that are often asso- rain. The amount of ciated with La Ni- rain that falls in na will not likely Sul de Minas and have a big presence parts of Sao Paulo until October. Mid- may be lighter than October through usual during the February is the late spring and period in which La summer, but the Nina will likely timeliness of rain have the greatest should be sufficient influence around to support most the world. That crop needs. The means a boost in flowering season tropical rainfall for for coffee and ini- central Africa, In- tial weather in sug- donesia, Malaysia, arcane areas will parts of southern be dominated by an and eastern India bias may threaten wheat, barley and erratic and uneven distribution of and the tropical regions of South canola as they mature and are har- rain possibly resulting in some America. Mid-latitude reductions in vested. Flooding could evolve in some aborted coffee flowering and per- precipitation should become noticea- sugarcane and cotton production are- haps a s low start to aggressive sug- ble in the late autumn and winter for as of eastern Queensland in the first arcane and citrus development. the northern Hemisphere and for a quarter of 2022 and/or possibly in part of the southern Hemisphere December. Southern Europe and North Af- crops during their mid-summer. rica winter crop areas should expe- In South America, the culmination rience a more favorable rainfall dis- This year’s La Nina will be play- of a peaking La Nina event and a few tribution during the heart of winter ing out while a few other interesting other anomalies in the atmosphere and the same may be true for the weather phenomena are present and will set the stage for a dry bias to Middle East. Spain may be the ex- that too will alter the impact of this evolve in southern Brazil, southern ception with a warm and drier bias year’s event. For North America, win- Paraguay and Uruguay that will be expected at times this year. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation's judg- ment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weath- er, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation's information in any business, trade or investment decision. ©2021 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. [913-383-1161]
V O L U ME X I I I, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 8 U.S. Dryness Could Become An Issue For Wheat August was unusually dry across planting begins. Rain will move through western much of the Hard Red Winter Wheat production areas of the Hard Red Region. The drier bias was not just Some early autumn planting is Winter Wheat Region today with confined to August, but was also not- about to begin in the southwestern some pockets of significant rain oc- ed in portions of the region during part of the Hard Red Winter Wheat curring late in the day through Fri- June and July. As a result, of the dri- Region and greater rainfall would be day. Some erratic showers and er bias this summer and some persis- beneficial for this due to the low top- thunderstorms will then linger in tent warm to hot weather in August, soil moisture. The good news is that southern parts of the wheat region top and subsoil mois- greater rainfall is expected today into into Saturday and ture is rated short to Sunday. Total rain very short in many through Sunday will hard red winter wheat vary from 0.35 to 1.50 areas. inches in the region. The wettest areas will A culmination of likely be from the Ok- anomalous weather lahoma Panhandle, trends are coming to- northwestern Texas gether this autumn Panhandle, and far and winter to suppress southeastern Colora- rainfall and the dry- do through central ness already present Kansas. Some local in the region could end totals in central Kan- up expanding greatly sas will be greater over the next few than 2.00 inches. This months. Drought in rain will help support the region is expected germination in early to return and concern planted wheat fields over the emergence, in the southwest. establishment and production potential The rain this week for unirrigated winter will be beneficial; wheat in the region however, there is con- will be rising as well. cern of a drier trend Some of this dryness is later in September expected to reach into and October when the western Corn Belt most of the winter over time. wheat planting oc- curs. After this week’s The dryness and precipitation passes, a warm to hot tempera- much drier weather tures in August has pattern will evolve led to a majority of the and temperatures will wheat region to have rise above normal. short to very short soil Saturday due to a frontal boundary The drier and warmer weather bias moisture. The only exceptions are in and a couple of weather disturbances. should become a persistent feature areas that have recently received These weather disturbances will pull during the balance of this month heavier rainfall, but as noted earlier some monsoon and remnant moisture and into October. Moisture that has the greatest rainfall was a little from Hurricane Nora into the central been feeding into the region from blotchy across the region and the ma- Plains from the southwestern states the southwestern states (monsoon jority of crop areas will have need for enhancing rainfall briefly. moisture) is ending. Rain will not significant rain this autumn before fall as often or as significantly in World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation's judg- ment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weath- er, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation's information in any business, trade or investment decision. ©2021 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. [913-383-1161]
VOLU ME X III, ISS UE X T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE AT HER PR OG NOS T IC AT OR PAGE 9 U.S. Plains Dryness May Be A Wheat Issue (Continued From Page 8) the central or southern Plains over during those months tend to down- than usual in September and Octo- the next few weeks as that of the past play rainfall in hard red winter ber. The most anomalously warm few weeks; although, a few showers wheat areas. The 18-year cycle will weather is expected in October will occur infrequently as frontal sys- promote a northwesterly wind flow mainly because late September tems move across the region. pattern aloft during the late autumn temperatures could drop below av- and winter which also matches the erage for a little while. The October La Nina is expected to develop bias that comes from La Nina. That warm and dry weather will produce later this month and become greater will likely result in further support some aggressive drying at the time influence on world weather during for below average precipitation. in which aggressive planting of the October through February period. wheat is normally occurring. As a Most La Nina events that are in place Temperatures will be warmer result, soil moisture will be low and decreasing further when crops are planted and unirrigated fields may experience some delay in planting or (and more likely) there will be a delay in germination, emergence and establishment. The drier bias in the Plains will prevail into winter and early spring raising much concern amount the fate of this year’s crop. Many La Nina events end in the early spring and rainfall often kicks in rather significantly during the middle to latter part of spring saving crops after prolonged drier bias. 2022 spring rainfall could be hindered by a delayed break down in La Nina and/or by the negative phase of PDO and the prevailing 18-year cycle. World Weather, Inc. has written before about the potential for a mul- ti-year drought in North America because of the solar cycle and some other coincidental weather patterns and we still believe that to be true. There is reason to believe that late spring weather next year may not be as good as it should be in the central U.S. and by that time dry- ness will have spread from the Plains into the western Corn Belt raising worry not only about hard red winter wheat production, but also over the planting and early development prospects for 2022 corn and soybeans. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation's judg- ment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weath- er, Inc. can not be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation's information in any business, trade or investment decision. ©2021 World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. [913-383-1161]
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