The 2013 Federal Election: Electoral Outlook, Policy Outlook and Campaign Considerations - Nicholas Reece 26 March, 2013 BSL Lunchtime Seminar ...
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The 2013 Federal Election: Electoral Outlook, Policy Outlook and Campaign Considerations Nicholas Reece 26 March, 2013 BSL Lunchtime Seminar Series
FEDERAL ELECTION BASICS • Election on September 14, 2013. • Less than 6 months. • 25 Saturdays. • House of Representatives and Half Senate election.
Politics is a numbers game House of Representatives – 150 Seats • 71 ALP • 72 Coalition • 1 Green • 6 Independents Senate – 76 Seats • 31 ALP • 34 Coalition • 9 Green • 1 DLP • 1 Independent Half senate election = 36 State Senators and all 4 Territory Senators
RECENT POLLING – Poll Bludger, March 20
VOTES % 2010 %
Labor 33.9 -4.1
Coalition 46.8 +3.2
Greens 9.0 -2.8
Others 10.3 +3.7
LABOR 45.3 -4.8
COALITION 54.7 +4.8
SEATS 2010
Labor 52 -20
Coalition 93 +20
Not projected 5THE STATES – Poll Bludger, March 20
ALP 2PP % L-NP 2PP % ALP SWING %
NSW 43.7 56.3 -5.1
Victoria 50.4 49.6 -4.9
Queensland 43.0 57.0 -1.9
WA 40.7 59.3 -2.9
SA 45.2 54.8 -8.0
Tasmania 47.9 52.1 -12.7
Territories 53.8 46.2 -4.6THE STATES – Poll Bludger, 20 March
ALP SEATS L-NP 2PP ALP CHANGE
SEATS
NSW 17 29 -9
Victoria 19 17 -3
Queensland 6 23 -2
WA 2 13 -1
SA 5 6 -1
Tasmania 1 3 -3
Territories 2 2 -1POSSIBLE TARGET SEATS LABOR LABOR cont… COALITION GREEN / IND Corangamite (VIC) Moreton (QLD) Brisbane (QLD) Melbourne (VIC) Deakin (VIC) Petrie (QLD) Forde (QLD) Denison (TAS) La Trobe (VIC) Brand (WA) Longman (QLD) Greenway (NSW) Hindmarsh (SA) Herbert (QLD) Robertson (NSW) Bass (TAS) Dawson (QLD) Lindsay (NSW) Braddon (TAS) Bonner (QLD) Banks (NSW) Franklin (TAS) Hasluck (WA) Reid NSW) Lingiari (NT) Canning (WA) Page (NSW) Swan (WA) Eden-Monaro (NSW) Boothby (SA) Grayndler (NSW) Parramatta (NSW) Dobell (NSW)
THE SENATE • Historically you need two strong election results in a row to control the Senate. • Based on this weeks polling the Coalition would win control of the Senate. • Based on polling for the last six months, Coalition is likely to fall just short but the DLP may have BOP. The electoral calculation • 39 seats needed. Coalition hold 34, need 5. • 5 = 1 DLP + 1 Tasmania (ex ALP) + 1 SA (ex Green) + 1 Katter Party in QLD (ex Green or ALP) + 1 WA (ex Green)
LABOR MESSAGE • We’ve got a lot of work to do and we will continue to do it - making the investments that are needed to create jobs and opportunity and get our nation ready for the future. Delivering the National Broadband Network, National Disability Insurance Scheme, supporting modern families with everyday stresses and cost of living pressures. And above all, ensuring that every Australian child gets a world-class education. • Julia Gillard is a person who gets things done, she is tough and determined and she is on your side. • Tony Abbott is a huge risk: he has $70 billion in unfunded promises that will be paid for with cuts like those in Queensland, Victoria and NSW – he will cut education, health and industry support, scrap the NBN and cannot deliver the NDIS. He will cut workplace entitlements and protections and give up on tackling climate change. He is hard line social conservative.
COALITION MESSAGE • This is a bad government – broken promises, waste, mismanagement, divided, class war, run by faceless men of the party and union movement. • It does not have to be this way. The Coalition will deliver a strong Australia with lower taxes, lower debt and stronger borders. • Tony Abbott has dedicated his life to public service. He is a volunteer firefighter and lifesaver. He is married to Margie and has three children.
LABOR: BUDGET AND TAXATION • Keep the mining tax • Keep the carbon tax • Return the Budget to surplus • Cut company tax by the equivalent amount of concessions removed within the business tax system. • Budget speculation: To deliver funds for education, NDIS and Labor priorities = tax savings on superannuation, means testing childcare rebates, tightening eligibility for Family Tax Benefit B and further tightening in disability benefits.
COALITION: BUDGET AND TAXATION • Abolish the carbon tax • Abolish the mining tax • Cut personal income tax • Cut company tax by 1.5 per cent • Coalition will run a tighter fiscal policy than Labor with cuts in the public service including removal of duplication of functions at state and Commonwealth level. • Labor claims the Coalition has more than $70 billion of unfunded election promises. • Coalition Government public sector job cuts in Queensland (14,000), Victoria (3,600), NSW (10,000).
COALITION: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS • “We need to address Australia’s growing workplace militancy, flexibility and productivity challenges”. • Labour market reforms but not a return to WorkChoices • Media Reports: Appoint the Productivity Commission to conduct a wide-ranging investigation into the Fair Work Act. Any major changes would be delayed until after the 2016 election.
LABOR: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS • Family flexibility laws that extend the scope of the right to request flexible working arrangements to include carers, workers with disability, mature-aged workers, and workers experiencing domestic violence. • Requirements for employers to genuinely consult with employees about changes to rosters and working hours, including the impact on their family life • Increase the arbitration powers of the Fair Work Commission. • Changes to union right of access rules.
LABOR: EDUCATION • Deliver on the Gonksi Review – April COAG critical. • Estimate: $5 billion in additional funding • A new a two-tiered model called the 'schooling resource standard” which includes a 'per student' amount, with adjustments for students and schools facing certain additional costs or disadvantage. • Commitment that no school will be worse off.
COALITION: EDUCATION • Will retain the existing funding model. • Rejects the Gonski finding of a direct link between the flaws in the current funding model and Australia’s relative decline in educational outcomes - and the link between educational equity and national education outcomes. • Put local communities in charge of improving the performance of schools • Encourage state schools to become independent schools, providing simpler budgeting and resource allocation and more autonomy. • Reintroduce a $500 grant per student grant for new independent schools.
LABOR: HEALTH • 2011 funding agreement with the States • Recent controversy over the $1.6 billion “recalibration”. • Recent threats to provide funding directly to hospitals. • $4.1bn over six years for a new dental scheme for children and low-income adults in part funded through changes to the Medicare dental scheme.
COALITION: HEALTH • 2010: In favour of a 100 per cent hospital funding takeover. • Put local communities in charge of hospitals and improving co-operation with the States and Territories. • We aspire to improve and restore dental services through Medicare as soon as we responsibly can. • Will restore the Private Health Insurance rebate as soon as we responsibly can.
COALITION: ENVIRONMENT • Direct action to reduce carbon emissions inside Australia and also establish a 15,000 strong Green Army to clean-up the environment. • Will cut Australia’s emissions by 5% by 2020. $3 billion Emissions Reduction Fund • Streamline environmental approvals – stop the delays, complexities and uncertainties imposed by the Commonwealth and States • Adopt a practical, balanced and sustainable approach to environmental issues. Support the fishing industry by setting up more rigorous assessments for new Marine Protected Areas.
COALITION: IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM
SEEKER POLICY
• Re-introduce Temporary Protection Visas (TPVs) to
deny the people smugglers a product to sell.
• New orders to the Navy to “turn back” the boats
where safe to do so.
• We will boost rigorous offshore processing for illegal
arrivals.
• Establish a presumption against refugee status for
people who arrive in boats without identity papers.
• We will reserve 11,000 of the 13,750 refugee places
each year for offshore applicants.
• Our immigration program will focus on skilled
migrants targeting skills shortages.GREENS: IMMIGRATION • Want to end offshore processing • Increase share of places for off-shore refugees and humanitarian entrants • Abolish mandatory detention for asylum seekers • Population policy to be based on environmentally sustainable levels not economic drivers
COALITION: VOLUNTARY SECTOR • We will support community groups to strengthen local communities and enhance the social fabric. Eg. $10 million support to assist surf life-saving clubs buy needed equipment and to tackle drowning black- spots. • Re-establish the successful Coalition Community- Business Partnerships to engage with local communities and advices on encouraging more philanthropy by business and in assisting charities and community groups in their local area.
COALITION: WELFARE TO WORK • Measures to lift workforce participation: 2010 - Job Commitment Bonus, Job Relocation Payment • Critical of childcare assistance for out of work mothers who sign up for training or are looking for work. • Increase in Newstart is under active consideration but it must be made a short-term payment because too many people are staying on the dole for too long.
PAID PARENTAL LEAVE Labor • 18 weeks paid parental leave for mother at the minimum wage. Only eligible for people earning under $150,000 • 2 weeks paid parental leave for father/partner at the minimum wage Coalition • Six months leave at full pay up to $150,000 a year, to be administered by government and cost to be borne by big business via a 1.5 per cent levy. • Will restore Baby bonus for second and subsequent children to $5,000.
NDIS Labor • Only Labor can be trusted to deliver the NDIS Coalition • We are fully committed to helping people with disabilities and their carers and delivering the NDIS as soon as possible in line with the Productivity Commissions timetable.
OPPORTUNITIES – ELECTION CAMPAIGNS
• Election campaign is an opportunity for the
community sector.
– New avenues of influence
– New policy thinking.
– New philosophy. Eg. The Big Society,
Compassionate Conservatism, Third Way.
• The election campaign issue agenda (community
sector):
– NDIS
– Education reform
– Welfare to work
– Asylum seekerOPPORTUNTIES – MORE BROADLY • Influence the policy agenda not the daily news cycle. • Understand the intersection of the problem stream, policy stream and political stream. • Evidence based policy making. • Hone your message – values based, pick your frame. • Get organised - eg. NDIS • The power of engagement – eg. Socialist Alternative • Multiple avenues of influence: Ministers, Advisers, government officials, multiple departments, media, social media.
© Copyright The University of Melbourne 2011
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