Seeing the Bigger Picture POV: A Vaccinated World - part one - MediaCom
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The pandemic forced a giant experiment in human behaviour change Depending on what you read, it takes c. 30 days to make a new habit, and we have definitely had over 30 days 2
Experiments can change a lot of behaviour for good, but equally a lot reverts to type We get stuck behaving in ways that aren’t in our best interests and are sub-optimal. Across 48 hours in February 2014, most London Underground stations were closed as workers went on strike. Commuters had to find alternative ways to commute. 5% changed their commute for good, 95% went back to how it was. 3
It’s hard to know what changes will stick, because we are a long way from a point of stability and equilibrium… … What has happened is only an indicative guide to what will come 4
We haven’t had a period of relative stability 2020 2021 2022 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar Huh? Shit... OH SHIT. You are here Re-emerging Adapting and Coping HERE WE GO AGAIN Still in it? Back to normal? 5
So what do we think might happen in 2021? What behaviours will permanently change, and which will revert? ROCKS BADGERS ICEBERGS Those things that Brought about or “HIBERNATED” and we Long-term changes to accelerated by the missed during CV19, but anticipate and pandemic and here to will be embraced again future-proof for stay with renewed vigour 6
01 ROCKS BEHAVIOURS BROUGHT ABOUT – OR ACCELERATED – BY COVID-19, AND WHICH ARE HERE TO STAY - WORKING FROM HOME - COUCH COMMERCE - SUPPORT LOCAL - STREAM CULTURE - LITTLE LIFTS 7
A once-in-a-generation chance to reimagine how we work “The sudden shift to distributed work has provided a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reimagine everything about how we do our jobs” Stewart Butterfield, Slack Founder. Prior to the outbreak 68% of British employees never worked from home. Lockdowns have come and gone and come again, but the amount of people working from home has vastly increased. In April 2020 49.2% of adults were working from home, in October 2019 this sat at 24%. This has had several big benefits, top amongst them, no commute, saving money and better work-life balance. Once the crisis is over, most (57%) of those who were working before the outbreak and who intend to stay part of the workforce say they want to be able to continue working from home. (You Gov) You Gov, Slack andGWI 9
So what? Brands need to find new contexts in new routines With more of the UK working from home even post pandemic, this means commuter hours will be lost, routines will be changed, habits lost and the role for many brands in these moments will be lost. Questions to ask: When we go back to a semblance of normality a • How have your audience routines changed? large proportion of office workers will still work from • What moments have been lost and what new moments made? home more, and importantly even if we do go back, • How can your brand play a role in those new habits will have been broken. From commuters who moments ? always bought their morning coffee on the way into • How can media tap into these contexts? the office, to workers who went to the gym next to work at lunch time, to those millions of people who spent hours in the car each day listening to the radio. We need to understand the new work-life routines that emerge and the media contexts that allow us to target them. 10
2. COUCH COMMERCE 50% In 2020 of customers are shopping online for products they have never bought online before. SourceStatista 11
Couch commerce has made shopping easier Covid accelerated the move to e-commerce, with three months of lockdown accelerating the level of ecommerce sales by four years. In 2019 online retail accounted for 19% and in 2020 it accounted for 26.2%, aka £99bn of sales. Grocery retailers turned into delivery services overnight. Online grocery shopping took 24 years to get to 7.5% of sales, then 23 weeks to get to 15%, with 1/3 of that growth coming from new shoppers. The biggest shift towards online supermarket shopping was in the over-55 age group, where regular online shopping nearly trebled. Both new and old brands are getting into D2C space. Shopify reported the number of new stores being set up on their platform grew by 62% in the second half of Q1 compared to the first half. Also, a rise in social commerce, with forecasts suggest the global social commerce market will increase upwards of 34% by 2021 (eMarketer June 2020) And research predicts online shopping is here to stay, with 89% of customers saying they will continue to shop online at the same level post lockdown, and 93% of Brits feel confident in now shopping online. eMarketer, Google, ONSI 12
So what? Brands need to make sure they add the BRAND into D2C With more people shopping online there are more need states, moments, times that might trigger a purchase. In April 2020 searches for online shopping, were up 760%. We need to understand these new ways of interacting with our categories. Questions to ask: • Is your e-storefront as compelling as your physical The danger with an increased focus on D2C is that the relationship a storefront? brand has with its customers becomes increasingly transactional • How can you add positive friction to the D2C and without the depth of experience you get IRL. If winning in D2C space? becomes all about bottom of the funnel conversions, we will miss • The need states, searches, times, devices and out on the chance to grow sustainable brands. So, it’s critical to platforms that trigger a new purchase have balance D2C with brand building. From direct-to-consumer to multiplied, do you understand the new ways brand-to-consumer. people interact with your category? • Ensure you do not disregard the old by asking Add positive friction to the experience. In an increasingly ‘what has stayed the same in your category transactional space, it’s not just about driving quick conversions, we purchase journey?’ also need to add positive friction to the D2C journey, friction that gives us a chance to harvest more first party data, that keeps customers with the brand for longer, that allows brands to talk to them more often, that keeps them coming back. Google 13
3. SUPPORT LOCAL 82% Online conversations about community up Wunderman Thompson
Rise of community spirit and supporting what’s on our doorstep Over the pandemic we have seen a resurgence in community spirit driven by how much more time we are spending local and by the Blitz-like need to pull together. And this is manifested in support for local businesses. People have started to realize the positive impact of their buying power and that our purchases can have a positive impact. Earlier this year, 55% of shoppers consciously intended to spend more money in local shops after lockdown and nearly two-thirds (62%) of the population plans to stay loyal to the local businesses that helped them through lockdown. Intended behaviours aside, we’ve seen actual evidence via search data that people are increasingly focused on local options. Searches containing ‘near me’ reached a 5-year high in September this year. This isn’t a sudden spike that will soon taper off – there has been a steady YOY increase even before 2020. Mintel, Wunderman Thompson, Google 15
So what? Location, location, location With people continuing to work from home and more flexible remote working options becoming more accepted, the importance of taking a local approach will only increase. Brands need to understand renewed movement Questions to ask: patterns and the footfall potential within local, as we • How can you understand and benefit from live know travel patterns have changed significantly through location movement patterns? • How can you adapt your message for maximum lockdowns and will continue to adapt into 2021. We relevance to the location? need to adopt a “people not panels” approach to OOH • How can you support the desire to “love local”? & DOOH, use mobile data and geo-data to adapt to live • What can you do to support communities, either locations and flex our buys to reflect where people physically or virtually? actually are now. Also brands need to consider when and how they localise their message to maximise relevance for their audience. Brands can also tap into renewed affinity to community and local, to supercharge cultural relevance. 16
4. STREET CULTURE BECOMES STREAM CULTURE 8.6m Since the pandemic we have seen New mobile gamers
The blurring of lines between IRL and IVL is here to stay With less movement and interaction IRL we have moved into the virtual world, and the streets have moved into the streams. This is demonstrated in everything from how we watch entertainment, together, with a spike in watch parties (searches up 400%), to how we exercise as a community, with virtual classes. Joe Wicks saw at his peak 955k views, getting him a Guinness World Record. Home fitness is becoming the default – 81% of millennials & 66% of consumers saying they prefer it. And 72% of people expect to see a lasting increase in home exercise with digital instruction. We also saw the massive rise of gaming and the beginnings of the metaverse – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was using Animal Crossing for house calls in May last year, Christopher Nolan was releasing the trailer for Tenet in Fortnite, and Lil Nas X was hosting shows in Fortnite, with 33m views. Gaming as the new stream culture environment is the biggest entertainment growth category in the world. WFSGI + McKinsey Global Sporting Goods Survey October 2020 18
So what? Kickstart brand visibility in the virtual space With the blurring of lines between IRL and IVL set to continue, how do you kickstart brand visibility in a virtual world? In particular it’s important to consider gaming now as a mass entertainment form that allows you to integrate Questions to ask: your brand into the virtual world. Over Covid-19 we • How can you build your brand visibility in the virtual have seen a 50% increase in mobile gamers in the UK - world in a natural way? • What is your brand’s value-add to the way your the equivalent of 8.6m people. So we now need to audience connect and consume in the virtual consider it as a vital way of moving from street to stream space? culture. • Have you considered gaming in your media mix? And not forgetting it is also a spectator sport. Sites like Twitch and You Tube Gaming had amassed large followings anyway, but Covid-19 has brought them to the masses, with musicians, creatives, charities and athletes all taking to gaming platforms to entertain, to connect with fans and to fill the void. 19
5. LITTLE LIFTS We watch 41 minutes A day of Tik Tok GOOGLE 2019 - 2021 20
The pandemic has seen heightened emotions We are living through a period of heightened emotions. This is Hedononmeter – using social data to understand net happiness globally, which took a massive dip when Covid came along. The world is a spikier, less content, less happy place now. We are more emotional. From the massive downs and anxiety caused by multiple 30 lockdowns which saw UK consumer confidence drop by 20 2 points to -28% in Jan 2021, to the emotional highs of 10 Captain Tom, Clap for Carers, and the fast spread hilarity Household financial situation over the next 12 months 0 of internet sensations like Jackie Weaver. -10 Climate for Major Purchase Throughout it all we have needed levity and laughter, -20 Expectation for development of the economy over next 12 and little lifts. And this need for entertainment will -30 months continue into 2021 and beyond. -40 Consumer Confidence -50 -60 GfK, Hedonomter, 21
So what? A continued need for levity past the pandemic There is an important role for brands in giving people that little lift. We know 54% of Brits watch You Tube for comedy and this is why TikTok has actually taken off. 3.7m Brits watch on average 41 minutes a day. Questions to ask: • What are your audience need states throughout the It’s important to ask what your audience’s need states day/ week/ month and do they need a little lift? and mindsets are. The most important need states will • What role can your brand play in giving people a change across audience and category. How can you little lift? better understand your audience needs and how they • Which ‘positivity partners’ are right to help your brand give your audience little lifts? are flexing? And can you find a positivity partner, as entertainment brands are in a prime position to offer little lifts and positivity? It’s key to consider which brands you can partner with to amplify your positivity. 22
3.For GENDER EQUALITY more information on these topics Steve Ricketts Lindsey Jordan Jack Bradford Head of eCommerce Joint Head of Strategy Team Sport & Ents, Account Manager Steve.ricketts@Mediacom.com Lindsey.jordan@Mediacom.com Jack.Bradford@Mediacom.com 23
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