Risk assessment approach to phytosanitary treatments - Dr Stephen Pawson
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Risk assessment approach to phytosanitary treatments
Dr Stephen Pawson
Forestry in NZ
• ~1.75 million ha
• Pinus radiata
• 3rd largest export sector
• China/India main markets
Source: NZFOA/MPI
New Zealand Export Trends
Trade at risk the NZ situation
30000
20000
m3 (,000's)
10000
0
Current Log Exports
Current Exports China/India
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MAF Export Statistics
Trade at risk the NZ situation
30000
20000
m3 (,000's)
10000
0
Current Log Exports
Predicted Log Exports
Current Exports China/India
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MAF Export Statistics
Current export treatments dominated by
fumigants
• MeBr
• Phosphine
Experimental use treatment on below deck cargo for
Chinese market only.
• Debarking and heat treatment
Accepted by some markets.
Not widely applied due to costs and lack of
infrastructure.
Significant local drivers of change • Environmental Protection Agency decision Mandatory recapture by 2020 Restrictive buffer zones • Growing public opposition Health concerns Political pressure regarding recapture
Our new approach
1. Integrated Phytosanitary Pest Management (Scion)
2. Alternative fumigants technologies
Mixtures and synergistic compounds (P&F)
Destruction technologies for risk mitigation (Scion)
3. Sterilisation
Cold via Electron beams (Scion)
Heat via Joule Heating (UoC)
How this will be funded • Some work has been initiated with a STIMBR- Primary Growth Partnership programme. • The bulk of the work will be funded through a new four year MBIE programme that was just funded to the tune of $2.01 million p.a NZ Govt $1.3 m STIMBR $0.5m Scion core purpose $210k • Largest programme on quarantine treatments undertaken in NZ.
Integrated Phytosanitary Pest Management (IPPM) Systems approach •No reliance on a single end point treatment •Treatment applied as a function of the assessed risk of infestation. •Interventions along the supply chain used to try and reduce pest pressure. •Appropriate interventions taken on the basis of actual risk
Integrated Phytosanitary Pest Management
(IPPM)
Pest complex and
its distribution
Phenology
Thermal development
models
Pest Pressure at a given time How far they fly
-Temperature, wind etc
-Time of day
Landscape context
Reduce reinfestation -Amount of plantation
-Age of source
material
Probability of infestationIPPM: What is the species complex? 1. Hylurgus ligniperda 2. Hylastes ater 3. Arhopalus ferus 4. Prionoplus reticularis 5. Pachycotes peregrinus 6. Mitrastethus baridioides 7. Sirex noctilio
IPPM: Predicting phenology • Thermal development time models for each species. • Allows us to predict phenology as opposed to monitor it. • Future proofs against climate change and unusual seasonal climates (e.g., a wet English summer)
IPPM: Validate phenology models and assess landscape context Nationwide trapping network
IPPM: Landscape context •Nationwide trapping network ~400 panel traps ~50 separator traps •Validate thermal development models •Test experimentally the following factors: -Proximity to habitat -Proportion of habitat in landscape -Temperature to initiate flight -Effect of habitat age -Time of day -Geographical differences, elevation and aspect -Flight capabilities
Putting the model together • Bayesian Belief Network: Collaboration with Dr Ann Nicholson (Bayesian Intelligence/ACERA)
Bayesian Belief network Advantages • Can use a variety of data sources, e.g., empirical data and expert judgement • Provides measures of uncertainty with respect to parameter estimation and model predictions
Possible interventions Reducing pest pressure • Lighting • Stacking • Trapping etc End point if required • Fumigation • Joule heating etc
How IPPM will fit into the bigger picture So what to do when IPPM will not be accepted by trading partners?
Forest Market Access – Fumigation
STIMBR
•Quick review PGP
to identify new promising compounds to augment tests on
MeBr, SF,»Phosphine,
Verifying EDN, and less
phosphine ‘intoxic ethylprotocol
transit’ formate, for
carbonyl
logs tosulfide
Chinaand
methyl isothiocyanate.
» Potential
•Penetration: to reduce
how it is affected methyl bromide
by moisture, doses
temperature, fororientation
grain logs to China
etc
•Compare»withPreparing to evaluate
screen efficacy EDN (ethane
data against dinitrile)
naked insects prior–tounder
in log EPA
trials
‘containment’ rules
PFR Fumigation Facility, Palmerston North
Contact: Don Brash
The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research LimitedJoule Heating: Bill Heffernan •Testing conducted at 100kW on 500 mm logs •Successfully treated to ISPM 15 standards and US import standards. •Currently evaluating any changes in wood properties.
Cold Sterilisation: Linear accelerators • Using non-radioactive sources. • Building on some initial work on Prionoplus reticularis • Review current international work on dose rates, test on NZ key quarantine pests. • Assess radiation penetration vs. insect penetration • Cost benefit analysis of building a commercial operation and cost comparison with joule heating. P. reticularis, huhu beetle
Contact details
• We are really keen to talk with anyone for relevant
information on:
Thermal development models with wood borers and
bark beetles.
Systems approaches
• Steve.Pawson@scionresearch.comYou can also read
