Reviewing Precinct Level Results of the June 2012 San Diego Mayoral Election The Looming Battleground in Clairemont

Reviewing Precinct Level Results of the June 2012 San Diego Mayoral
                               Election

                     The Looming Battleground in Clairemont

The race to become mayor of the City of San Diego has narrowed down to two finalists. In this policy
brief the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) analyzed newly released
electoral data from the San Diego County Registrar of Voters’ office using GIS software.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

   •   The June mayoral primary was a partisan election. Interstate 8 continues to delineate a
       partisan divide in San Diego, which weighed heavily in the electoral outcome. GIS maps show
       that Republican DeMaio earned most of his votes in older, more conservative neighborhoods
       north of Interestate 8, while Democrat Filner won the lion’s share of votes among the younger,
       more diverse and liberal enclaves south of 8. Both candidates are likely to target low-propensity
       partisan voters that did not turn out for the June election, to shore up their base early in the fall
       election.

   •   Support for Bonnie Dumanis and Nathan Fletcher lacked a geographic base. NUSIPR found that
       District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis and State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher won only a handful
       of precincts outright, even when combining their votes. GIS mapping shows that there was no
       clear territory where either candidate earned deep voter support. Generally, Dumanis and
       Fletcher did best in parts of Carmel Valley, Point Loma, and Mission Valley. However, in only 9
       precincts (out of a total of approximately 633) did the combined vote total of Dumanis and
       Fletcher exceed 50%.

   •   Clairemont will be a high-stakes voter battleground for DeMaio and Filner in November. Many
       voters in Clairemont were divided in their choice for mayor and was the most competitively
       fought over community in the City. It is likely that both mayoral campaigns will be spending
       significant time in the area, and will recruit popular, well-known local leaders (Donna Frye,
       Councilmember Lorie Zapf) to solicit votes in the general election.

•   Candidates will have to prepare for a different election in the fall. The voting electorate for
    primary elections in San Diego is significantly smaller than general elections, particularly in
    presidential election years. Consider that in the last primary election in a presidential year
    (2008), voter turnout countywide was 33.99%, while the fall voter turnout was 83.72%. DeMaio
    and Filner will have to shore up their partisan voter base, will reaching out to younger, diverse,
    and Decline to State voters to achieve victory on Election Day.

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Figure 1: Percentage of Vote Won by Filner, by Precinct

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Figure 2: Percentage of Vote Won by DeMaio, by Precinct

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Figures 1 and 2 show the geographic split between DeMaio and Filner when it came to the June primary.
Congressman Filner did best in the southern parts of the City, particularly the areas he has represented
in Congress and while on the San Diego City Council. His challenge is to expand his support North of
Interstate 8 beyond the enclaves surrounding UCSD and USD.

The returns for Councilmember DeMaio illustrate an almost mirror image. The Councilmember’s core
support was in the northern parts of the City and in the current 5th Council District. He was weakest in
the areas south of Interstate 8.

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Figure 3: Percentage of Vote Won by Dumanis and Fletcher, by Precinct

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In Figure 3 we added Dumanis and Fletcher’s vote totals together. In very few precincts (Bird Rock,
Harborside, Black Mountain Ranch, and Kensington) did the candidates combine for greater than 50% of
the vote.

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Figure 4: Voter Precincts, by Degree of Competitiveness

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Figure 4 shows the degree to which voters were equally distributed among the four candidates. A score
of 100 would represent a precinct which voters were evenly split among the 4 candidates. A precinct
with a value of 0, by contrast, would be a precinct in which all voters supported a single candidate.

This chart illustrates just how competitive the areas in the middle part of the City are likely to be. Party
registration is generally even in this area. They represent some of San Diego’s most populous “first ring”
post-war suburbs. Over the past two decades University City has been represented by a Republican
(Harry Mathis) and a Democrat (Scott Peters/Sheri Lightner). Conversely, Clairemont during essentially
the same time was represented by a Democrat (Donna Frye) and now a Republican (Lorie Zapf.) Given
the even distribution of primary voters among the four candidates, we would expect that mailboxes in
Clairemont will be extra burdened by mailers in the fall and that the candidates will learn well the
neighborhoods of Bay Ho, South UC, and Western Clairemont as they look for votes.

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About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit
organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy and public opinion research to
improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the
quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.

NUSIPR regularly publishes independent research and analysis for the public on a range of topics,
including unemployment, business growth, and the San Diego housing market. The Institute also works
collaboratively with clients to develop high-quality research products that are tailored to their policy
needs.

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