Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics - Q1 Industry Review - Deloitte
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Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Contents Executive Summary 01 Residential Market Q1 Key Stats 04 Office Market Q1 Key Stats 08 Funding Landscape Analysis 09 Summary 11 About Us 11 Get in Touch 12 02
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Executive Summary The events over the previous 12 months Supply of materials and labour is also notable shift to housing over apartment have been a catalyst for several disruptive crucial for the industry. Our analysis of the development. This is likely a result of both trends in the real estate sector. Some of industry shows that 66% of contractors the demand for housing over apartments, these trends will be short-term, whilst for noticed a less than 10% increase in but also the shift to lower density others the effects will be more permanent. materials costs, 30% found an 11-20% development more synonymous with that increase and 4% found a greater than outside of Dublin. Before Covid-19 the construction 20% increase. 87% of contractors also industry was on an upward trajectory expressed that they had experienced New commercial office development has with substantial investment planned and longer lead times for materials. We believe seen a marked reduction in demand, likely cause for optimism. While we believe that the extent of these costs have not driven by the well-documented concerns demand has not been quashed, activity been fully realised due to the partial around the future of the office as a place of has been delayed by the pandemic, and opening of the sector. The increased costs work. Despite the restrictions in place for this delay could result in projects that of key materials such as steel, insulation construction, there was relatively strong were previously marginally viable prior to and timber have been masked by no real planning activity nationally over the first the pandemic, now rendered unviable. A increase in wages. From our review of the quarter of the year. major concern to the industry is the loss industry, 5% of contractors encountered of programme on projects with 90% of a shortage of labour before the third Covid-19 has undoubtedly accelerated contractors experiencing substantial loss in lockdown and the full extent may not be the decline of high street retail. The programme. Forecasts from the ESRI show realised until the industry returns to full combination of government restrictions, residential completions for 2021 to be capacity. Overall we expect construction increase in e-commerce and change in around 15,000 units which is considerably cost inflation to increase towards the work patterns, has meant that many lower than the required 34,000 units noted end of the year and into 2022 once new high street retail properties will need to by the Central Bank. This reduction in units projects come available. reposition or repurpose. has hit supply hard and has increased house prices by 7.6% nationally in Q1 2021 For residential units, the ability to deliver In this report, Deloitte Real Estate Advisory compared to Q1 2020 as noted in the latest on schemes has been challenging with comment on the current landscape of the Daft Quarterly Report. The number of units the number of commencements almost Irish planning system and the residential submitted for planning in Q1, 2021 is down half that of the same period in 2020. This and commercial real estate markets in 29% compared to the same period in 2020. highlights the reliance on completions Ireland. We also provide funding analysis This reduction is a knock on from the delay to fund further developments (which on the current macro-economic conditions in current completions and highlights that have been reduced due to the lockdown that are supporting a favourable capital the industry is reliant on completions to restrictions). Hybrid working patterns raising environment within the Irish Real fund other developments. and affordability have also impacted the Estate sector. make-up of new developments, with a 01
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Nationwide Planning Stats - Q1 2020 v Q1 2021 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Applications Lodged Planning Granted Commencements Residential (20 Units +) 2021 Office (10,000 sq ft +) 2021 Residential (20 Units +) 2020 Office (10,000 sq ft +) 2020 Slowdown in Planning Permissions At a debate of the Joint Committee on a tenfold increase in the number of The number of planning applications Housing, Local Government and Heritage residential units in SHDs in Dublin quashed submitted during the period Q1 2021 has on the 10th of November last, Paul Hyde, or held up due to judicial reviews (508 reduced by one relative to Q1 2020. In Deputy Chairperson of An Bord Pleanála affected by judicial reviews in 2019, 5,802 in terms of units however it is down 29%. stated approximately 40,000 residential 2020). Nationally, 1,048 units were affected This is most likely a direct implication from units have been permitted under Strategic by judicial reviews in 2019 and 6,969 in the restrictions imposed over the first Housing Development (SHD) provisions. 2020. quarter of 2021. This trend is amplified Some 29,000 of these were apartments further down the development timeline and 11,000 are houses, with approximately On top of the delay caused by the action, with granted schemes down 26% and 4,000 social houses incorporated and the vast majority of judicial reviews resulted commencement notices lodged down 44%. a further 10,100 student bed-spaces in the permission being quashed. The We also note some broader factors permitted. The delivery of planning applicant must then start the SHD process impacting the planning system particularly permissions through the SHD process again, with the likelihood that objectors and the ongoing issues with the Strategic however has been severely curtailed in community groups are waiting in the wings Housing Development (SHD) system. recent times with an explosion in the to launch another judicial review of any new The recent rise in the number of Judicial number of SHD planning approvals being decision. Reviews has resulting in many schemes quashed or stalled through Judicial Review. being substantially delayed or quashed The only appeal mechanism to an SHD This slowdown in residential planning entirely in the courts. planning approval by An Bord Pleanála is by permissions will inevitably have an impact judicial review, as distinct from a planning on housing supply at some point in the decision made by a local authority which next few years, compounding the impact can be appealed to An Bord Pleanála. from the construction shutdown caused by Analysis by Mitchell McDermott reveals Covid-19. 02
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Better Management of Government and affordable homes, with two thirds Assets The LDA is also engaged in the allocated to affordable homes for both The Land Development Agency Bill development of a State Land Database rent and purchase, and a third to social is currently progressing through the which will be a comprehensive live and housing. The affordable purchase Oireachtas, and Minister Darragh O'Brien interactive map of all State-owned lands, homes will be provided by way of TD has announced that the role of intended to allow for better management the government’s upcoming shared Chairperson of the Land Development of the State's assets and improving the ownership scheme. The affordable rental Agency (LDA) is currently being advertised. integration of land use planning and homes will be provided through cost The LDA is tasked with efficiently utilising infrastructure. On a positive note, the LDA rental. state-owned lands for the provision of have recently secured planning permission • Planning Permission has also been a stable, sustainable supply of land for for two substantial schemes as discussed obtained by the Land Development housing and is being provided with a below: Agency to develop 266 homes, an funding allocation of €1.25 billion from the • Planning Permission has been obtained enterprise centre and crèche facilities Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) – by the LDA in partnership with Dún at the former St. Kevin’s Hospital site in The LDA is currently engaged on 11 sites Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council Shanakiel, Cork. The tenure mix is yet to around the country. for a development of 597 new homes be confirmed but will primarily consist of at Shanganagh, Co Dublin. 100% of the social and affordable housing. proposed development is for social Nationwide Planning Stats - Q1 2021 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Residential Office Residential Office Residential Office (20 Units +) (10,000 (20 Units +) (10,000 SQ (20 Units +) (10,000 SQ SQ FT +) FT +) FT +) Applications Lodged: Planning Granted: Commencments: Dublin Rest of Ireland 03
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Residential Market Q1 Key Stats Despite the restrictions in place for Q1 2021 Q1 2020 construction, there was relatively strong Applications 77 Schemes / 9,612 78 schemes / planning activity nationally over the Submitted units 13,616 units first quarter of 2021. While the level of planning applications submitted in Q1 2021 remained relatively consistent with Q1 Grants of Planning 70 Schemes / 8,078 95 schemes / 2020, the level of applications granted fell Permission units 11,274 units by 26% in Q1 2021 from Q1 2020 and the level of commencement notices lodged fell Commencement 32 Schemes / 1,764 57 schemes / by 44% in Q1 2021 from Q1 2020. Notices Lodged units 5,939 units Q1 2021 Planning Applications Submitted 36% Of the 77 new scheme planning applications submitted in Q1 2021, 36% were in Dublin, Q1 2021 36% in the rest of Leinster, with the remaining 28% in the rest of Ireland. 28% 36% Dublin The rest of Leinster The rest of Ireland 04
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Grants of Planning Permission Q1 2021 50% Of the 70 schemes granted planning Q1 2021 permission in Q1 2021, 50% were in Dublin, 27% in the rest of Leinster, with the remaining 23% in the rest of Ireland. 23% 27% Commencement Notices Q1 2021 12% Of the 32 schemes that had 38% commencement notices lodged in Q1 2021, only 12% were in Dublin, down from 42% from the same period last year, the rest Q1 2021 of Leinster accounted for 50%, with the remaining 38% across the rest of Ireland. 50% Dublin The rest of Leinster The rest of Ireland 05
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review A substantial shift to housing over this period in comparison to only 206 apartments can be observed in the apartment units. This includes a further commencement notices lodged in Q1 unclassified 66 units of mixed development 2021. Commencement notices were lodged (approx. 40/60 apartment/house mix). for a total of 1,492 housing units during Units Types Subject to Commencements in Q1 2021 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Apartments Housing Unclassified Mix of Units Of the 32 schemes on which commencement notices were lodged, in Q1 2021, only 12% were in Dublin, down from 42% from the same period last year. 06
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Residential Market Outlook These updated working patterns and The number of units being delivered affordability have also impacted the has been significantly impacted by the make up of new developments, with a Covid-19 pandemic. Firstly, the number notable shift to housing over apartment of commencements is almost half that of development. This is likely a result of both the same period in 2020. At a minimum, the demand for housing over apartments, there will be a delay in delivery of existing but also the shift to lower density stock as site works have been curtailed development more synonymous with that and indeed have ceased entirely for a outside of Dublin. period of time. It is also likely that many of the schemes which have been granted Forward purchase investments of permission across Q1 2021 may delay residential stock are beginning to return development commencement until a level to the market, having stagnated over the of economic certainty returns, and the risk past year. This is likely due to a return of further lockdowns reduces. of certainty over the construction and scheme completion timeframes. This It is evident the strong requirement for forward purchase by investment funds housing has not disappeared due to the received negative reaction in Government current Covid-19 crisis, with significant circles as it reduces the available capacity pent up demand for both rental and sales for first time buyers. It is anticipated accommodation. However, affordability that Government will introduce a 10% remains an underlying issue. Coupled with stamp duty rate on purchases of 10 or this pent-up demand and the evident slow- more houses within a 12 month period down in supply, this is likely to continue for in a bid to curb this trend. It is believed the foreseeable future. that apartments are fully exempt from this higher stamp duty as are multiple There remains a focus on Dublin in purchases by Local Authorities and respect of new applications granted, Approved Housing Bodies. but it is notable the significant shift in commencements outside of Dublin. With The establishment of the shared equity 88% of these applications outside of scheme, where further support is provided Dublin, the 42% drop in schemes starting for first time buyers, will have implications in Dublin year-on-year indicated both an for the housing market. These implications increase in demand in other locations remain to be seen both from a supply (most likely influenced by remote/ changing and demand perspective, and will provide working patterns) coupled with the well a degree of uncertainty for the private documented affordability issues in Dublin. developer and councils as they assess their social housing needs. 07
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Office Market Q1 Key Stats • The focus on office development Office Market Outlook difficulty in getting this excess space sublet has been predominantly in Dublin. There has been a marked reduction due to a variety of market forces – volume Approximately 66% of schemes in the in demand for new commercial office of space, covenant strength, sustainable application process have been applied development, likely driven by the well- rent-free periods and landlord approval. for, granted, or commenced within documented concerns around the future of Dublin City and County. This represents the office as a place of work. This reduction This quantum of grey space coming to an increase in the percentage of office in new development will have a knock-on market will increase the vacancy rate. development taking place in Dublin City effect on supply over both the short and Also, the potential flexibility and “turnkey and County, which was approximately medium term, due to the illiquidity in fit out” that this grey space can provide to 50% for Q1 2020. delivery of stock to market. occupiers may present a further degree of uncertainty for developers in considering • The appetite for office development has There remains a focus on Dublin for office future development. halved when compared to Q1 2020 with development, driven by the inherent only 4 schemes commencing across demand for this location, the economic Whilst it is becoming evident that rents Ireland in Q1 2021. benefits and quantum of population in and yields are remaining relatively stable • Whilst 12 schemes were granted planning the City. However, there is now a 50% despite soft rental deflation, this will permission in Q1 2021 (18 in Q1 2020), split between Dublin and the rest of need to be closely monitored across the number of applications lodged in Q1 Ireland, which is a notable and interesting 2021. There has also been a shift in the 2021 (5 lodgements) remained at a similar development shift to more confidence in level of incentives needed to secure level as Q1 2020 (6 lodgements). the regional occupational office market. quality occupiers such as “rent free”. This should provide some degree of certainty • With the exception of an isolated We are aware of a number of occupiers in respect of rental projections for example taking over 300 days to be considering their occupational real estate developers. granted planning, the time taken for footprint, and there will likely be a quantum decision to be made for office schemes of “grey space” (sub leasing / assignment) which were granted planning in Q1 2021 space coming to the market. There may be took an average 122 days. The appetite for office development has halved when compared to Q1 2020 with only 4 schemes commencing across Ireland in Q1 2021. 08
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Funding Landscape Analysis With interest rates at an all-time low, • Private Rental Sector (PRS) and Social • There has also been a steady influx investors chasing yields, a growing Housing have been very active asset of institutional capital targeting Irish population and supportive government classes over the past 12 months with residential properties that are leased policies, current macro-economic many Developers securing capital by to Local Authorities. In an environment conditions provide for a favourable removing the sales risk through forward- where investors are seeking to secure capital raising environment within the commits / forward-funds to Institutional long term stable income, the standard Irish Real Estate sector. Notwithstanding Investors or Approved Housing Bodies local authority leases, with up to 25 this favourable backdrop, the Real Estate (AHBs) and Local Authorities. year term and CPI linked rental income funding market has felt the effects of that is guaranteed by the state, is a very • While forward-funds have been prevalent Covid-19, however this impact has been attractive proposition. To provide some in the commercial property market for varied across particular asset classes. context in the attractiveness of these some time, we are beginning to see more investment opportunities, these leases of these structures in the residential Over the past 12 months, we have seen under such agreements are achieving market, with one of the largest PRS appetite amongst capital providers (both yields of c.3.5% while a 20 year Irish transactions (c.€200m) so far this year debt and equity) increase in asset classes government bond is trading at c.0.6%. being a forward-fund transaction. Certain that have withstood and/or benefited transactions of late and in particular • In particular the purchase of entire from the impact of Covid-19. With equity the purchase of entire housing estates housing estates have made national markets at record highs and significant have made national headlines and headlines. In response to political volatility in some commodity markets, Government intervention is expected to pressure the Government has proposed Real Estate continues to provide relatively restrict the ability of funds to buy housing the following interventions; i) the ring stable, contracted yields for investors, and limit the supply to first time buyers. fencing of up to 50% of housing schemes either through direct ownership or through for owner occupiers, this will apply to new lending. • A key factor in the emergence of forward- planning permission going forward; and fund agreements in the residential ii) the introduction of a 10% stamp duty Funding appetite within the Real market is the increasing prevalence of surcharge on institutional funds acquiring Estate asset classes institutional investors who are seeking more than 10 housing units (houses and a return on the capital that has been duplexes) in a development. Residential committed to acquire the property. With a prolonged period of housing Under a forward-fund agreement, there • The challenge for the Government is that supply shortages going back many years, is an ability for the purchaser to charge historically changing any of the tax or residential property prices have remained a coupon on the monies advanced to planning rules has resulted in unintended resilient during Covid-19. The extensive the developer during the construction consequences. We raise over €2bn of shutdown of construction sites during the process and also have more influence capital per annum for our clients and pandemic is likely to continue this trend for on the development process. Typically in our experience any change in tax or the coming years. Notably, house prices forward-fund structures are only being planning rules brings uncertainty to rose by an average of 7.6% nationally from offered to developers who are highly the market, this can and will impact the Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. reputable and have a well-established attractiveness of the Irish real estate track record of developing high-quality market to international capital (debt product. providers and investors). 09
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review New modern offices with floor plans that can cater for more collaborative spaces and larger footprints for individual employees are seen as the most attractive to capital providers as they are more resilient to changes in the working model. • Institutional capital is helping increase • Many of the international capital • It is expected that regional hotels will see the level of supply but is only a small providers we work with have taken the a strong recovery during summer 2021 part of the broader delivery of housing. view that large occupiers will adopt a due to the pent up demand for domestic Removing institutions from the market hybrid approach with employees dividing tourism, with city centre hotels starting would not help meet the overall their time between attending the office to see a level of recovery later in the year requirement for housing over the short and working from home. depending on the success of the vaccine to medium term. It would appear the rollout and the return of international • New modern offices with floor plans proposed measures being implemented travel. that can cater for more collaborative by Government recognise the risk spaces and larger footprints for individual associated with the current viability of Retail employees are seen as the most many apartment schemes however until Covid-19 has undoubtedly accelerated attractive to capital providers as they are the finer details are agreed the market the decline of high street retail. The more resilient to changes in the working waits in anticipation. combination of government restrictions, model. increase in ecommerce and change in work Industrial • In terms of new development, we have patterns has meant that many high street In line with other European countries, we seen limited appetite to fund new retail properties will need to reposition or are seeing significant capital targeting fully speculative office development. repurpose. logistics and industrial units. In the last 12 Covid-19 has caused a delay in the lease • For existing tenants, a trend toward months, Ireland has become one of the up strategy in a number of new office turnover-linked leases has started to top 5 EU countries in terms of purchasing developments with many occupiers emerge. The change in the format of goods and services online. Unsurprisingly, pressing pause on expansion plans. As such leases increases the risk on both this has resulted in additional storage a result, some developers have been the landlord and lender and therefore requirements to facilitate this increase unable to deliver on the original lease lenders may seek to be compensated in ecommerce. New cold storage units up strategy as the development reaches for the additional risk through reduced have been required to cater for the surge or nears practical completion. We have leverage and / or increased pricing. in demand during extensive lockdown seen a number of direct lenders offering periods and additional online grocery a solution by providing facilities to bridge • While funding appetite for retail has shopping. the property through the lease up period been very limited, there are subsets of to stabilisation. retail that have continued to perform This strong demand for industrial units has well during lockdown, these include driven vacancy rates below 2%. With such Hospitality retail parks, neighbourhood centres and strong demand dynamics, we have seen an Hospitality has been one of the hardest grocery outlets. increase in appetite amongst equity, direct hit sectors. Our experience to date has • Covid-19 has been a catalyst for several lenders and banks to deploy capital into been that both banks and direct lenders disruptive trends in the real estate sector the asset class. This is one the few sectors have continued to support borrowers and funding market, some of which we are seeing appetite amongst lenders for in this industry by offering forbearance will be short-term while for others the fully speculative development. and additional support during this effects will be more permanent. The unprecedented period. combination of the availability of capital, Commercial • We have seen opportunistic funds vaccine roll-out and significant pent up While there are many differing opinions entering the market and providing demand in many sub-sectors will ensure on the future of office, we continue to solutions to borrowers who may not have there is a strong level of activity involving see capital providers targeting funding sufficient equity to support the business domestic and international capital opportunities involving high-quality office during the effects of the pandemic. throughout 2021. developments in prime locations. Although there has been a delay in lease-ups during • While there is limited appetite to advance Covid-19, it is still seen an attractive sector new capital to the sector, we are starting to long term institutional investors as it to see appetite to lend to the most has been the deepest and most liquid real experienced hotel operators with a estate asset class. Despite the challenging portfolio of hotels. trading environment, over €1.2 billion was invested in Irish commercial real estate in the first 3 months of 2021. 10
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Summary About Us Overall there remains substantial appetite Our Real Estate Advisory team can provide by investors in the Irish Real Estate market you with strategic support at all stages but the Covid-19 restrictions over the last throughout the property development life 12 months have stymied development. This cycle. By combining property expertise and reduced output has increased house prices business advisory skills, we apply in-depth and reduced the available housing stock for insight drawn from our understanding of all potential home buyers. It also has a knock industries and sectors into one integrated on effect with supply as sales proceeds solution. Our core Real Estate advisory are needed to fund future developments. team is supported by Tax and VAT Advisory, There is growing evidence that supply is Debt & Capital Advisory and consultancy unlikely to bounce back to pre Covid-19 divisions, to service every aspect of your levels until at least 2023 with the ESRI property portfolio requirements. forecasting 16,000 completions in 2022 which falls short of the the 34,000 units Our Real Estate Finance team help clients required per year. raise capital (equity and debt) for property development and investment. We assist Completions this year are expected to fall our clients in optimising commercial to around 15,000 units and the continued terms, managing key risks and maximising full opening of the construction sector is business flexibility. needed to ensure that skilled construction labour, which is mobile by nature, do not We raise in excess of €2bn per annum leave increasing prices further. The impact for Irish clients and have a strong global of Brexit which may not be fully realised network of equity investors, international until the sector is fully operational has banks and direct funders. also had an effect with many contractors noticing longer lead times and increased costs for materials such as timber steel and insulation. 1111
Real Estate Planning & Development Statistics | Q1 Industry Review Get in Touch Michael Flynn John Doddy Global Infrastructure, Transport & Regional Partner and Head of the Debt & Capital Government Leader at Deloitte and Global Advisory Financial Advisory Services Financial Advisory Public Sector Industry Leader jdoddy@deloitte.ie micflynn@deloitte.ie +353 1 417 2594 +353 1 417 2515 David Buckley Daniel Lockley Associate Director - Real Estate Director - Real Estate Finance Financial Advisory Services Financial Advisory Services dbuckley@deloitte.ie dlockley@deloitte.ie +353 1 417 3797 +353 1 417 8835 David Reddy Niall Byrne Associate Director - Real Estate Chartered Town Planner - Real Estate Financial Advisory Services Financial Advisory Services davreddy@deloitte.ie nialbyrne@deloitte.ie +353 1 407 4829 +353 1 417 2488 1212
Contacts Dublin 29 Earlsfort Terrace Dublin 2 T: +353 1 417 2200 F: +353 1 417 2300 Cork No.6 Lapp’s Quay Cork T: +353 21 490 7000 F: +353 21 490 7001 Limerick Deloitte and Touche House Charlotte Quay Limerick T: +353 61 435500 F: +353 61 418310 Galway Galway Financial Services Centre Moneenageisha Road Galway T: +353 91 706000 F: +353 91 706099 Belfast 27-45 Great Victoria Street, Lincoln Building, Belfast, BT2 7SL, Northern Ireland. T: +44 (0)28 9032 2861 F: +44 (0)28 9023 4786 Deloitte.ie At Deloitte, we make an impact that matters for our clients, our people, our profession, and in the wider society by delivering the solutions and insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. As the largest global professional services and consulting network, with over 312,000 professionals in more than 150 countries, we bring world-class capabilities and high-quality services to our clients. In Ireland, Deloitte has over 3,000 people providing audit, tax, consulting, and corporate finance services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. Our people have the leadership capabilities, experience and insight to collaborate with clients so they can move forward with confidence. This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte Ireland LLP accepts no liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Deloitte Ireland LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in Northern Ireland with registered number NC001499 and its registered office at at 27-45 Great Victoria Street, Lincoln Building, Belfast, BT2 7SL, Northern Ireland. Deloitte Ireland LLP is the Ireland affiliate of Deloitte NSE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”). DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NSE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. © 2021 Deloitte Ireland LLP. All rights reserved. IE210046
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