R Model Portfolio August 2020 - Institutional Equity Research - Reliance Securities
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Institutional Equity Research August 05, 2020
R Model Portfolio
August 2020
Binod Modi
Research Analyst
Contact: 022 4303 4626/9870009382
Email: binod.modi@relianceada.com
D. Vijiya Rao
Senior Research Associate
Contact : (022) 4303 4633/9321404056
Email : vijiya.rao@relianceada.com
1Outperformance Takes a Breather
Indian equity market was among top performers globally with the benchmark index, Nifty registering monthly gain of 7.5% in Jul’20. More importantly, the sharp recovery is primarily
contributed by IT (+23% MoM), Pharma (+12% MoM), Auto (+8.3% MoM) and RIL (+21% MoM). IT, with sectoral weightage of 16% in Nifty, surprised positively mainly led by better
than expected margins and positive management commentaries. However, a sharp underperformance by the BFSI components (BFSI index gained mere 1.6% MoM) resulted in
underperformance of RSec Model Portfolio in Jul’20 despite we have been underweight in BFSIs for last couple of months. As against 7.5% and 6.8% MoM gain registered by Nifty
and BSE-500, respectively, RSec Model portfolio generated 5.4% return in Jul’20 and thus, underperformed the Nifty and BSE-500 by 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Among the stocks,
while Infosys delivered the highest 31% return, IPCA Labs, Sun Pharma, Dabur and UPL generated double-digit return (in 10-12% range) in Jul’20. While sharp underperformance
by the BFSI components impacted the performance of Model Portfolio, our strategy of being relatively underweight in Financials and overweight in Pharma, Consumer, Automobile
and Telecom still holds true.
Sharp Rebound in IT & Pharma Aided Markets
A better-than-expected margin performance by the IT majors (mainly led by cost saving), steady deal win and favourable guidance with clarity over business trajectory for the rest of
the fiscal increased the investors’ confidence on IT stocks. Additionally, pharma stocks witnessed sharp rebound in the backdrop of emerging domestic APIs (active pharmaceutical
ingredients) play. Amid possibilities that the government may hike import duty on the APIs, the domestic API manufacturers like Divi’s Labs, Laurus Labs and Granules India etc.
witnessed sharp up-move in Jul’20.
Ambiguity over BFSIs does not Augur Well for Sustainable Rally
Having seen a sharp rebound in Jul’20, the market may witness some amount of fatigue in Aug’20. We further note that performance of financials is crucial to drive the markets,
going forward. However, the financial stocks are likely to remain range-bound at least till clarity emerges over the RBI’s action plan pertaining to extension of moratorium beyond
Aug’20 or one-time loan restructuring. Further, additional supplies (as a number of banks are lined up to raise funds via Right Issues/QIPs) are likely to remain hurdles for the BFSI
sector. Moreover, continued decline in non-food credit growth may prompt the RBI to raise reverse repo rate to discourage the lenders to park money with the RBI and encourage
them to lend to various industries along with fresh targeted Long Term Repo Operations (LTROs).
Portfolio Reshuffling: Replacing Sun Pharma & Infosys with Laurus Labs & HCL Tech
We are replacing Sun Pharma and Infosys with Laurus Labs and HCL Technologies (HCLT) , respectively. We believe that ongoing traction in domestic API space and capacity
expansion in API space by 20-25% will aid Laurus Labs to report sustainable growth in coming quarters. Further, we believe HCLT offers higher margin of safety compared to peers.
Further, HCLT is relatively less exposed to the troubled verticals like Transportation, Hospitality and Retail etc.
2Exhibit 1: Reliance Securities Updated Model Portfolio – August 2020
Market Cap* Price* Investment Value* Weight in Portfolio*
Company Sector No. of shares
(Rs Cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%)
HDFC Bank 5,59,766 BFSI 1,033 10 10,328 8.2
Kotak Mahindra Bank 2,59,430 BFSI 1,366 5 6,829 5.4
ICICI Bank 2,24,045 BFSI 347 21 7,283 5.8
State Bank of India 1,71,888 BFSI 191 32 6,126 4.9
Manappuram Finance 13,540 BFSI 159 40 6,340 5.0
HCL Technologies 1,88,749 IT 705 18 12,694 10.1
Titan Co 95,601 Consumer 1,043 6 6,260 5.0
Hindustan Unilever 5,15,867 Consumer 2,210 2 4,420 3.5
Dabur India 90,041 Consumer 514 8 4,108 3.3
Indian Energy Exchange 5,337 Power 179 15 2,688 2.1
Havells India 37,144 Capital Goods 583 10 5,832 4.6
Laurus Labs 10,407 Pharmaceuticals 933 5 4,666 3.7
Sanofi India 19,023 Pharmaceuticals 7,768 1 7,768 6.2
IPCA Laboratories 23,743 Pharmaceuticals 1,875 4 7,498 6.0
Escorts 13,692 Automobile 1,134 7 7,938 6.3
Bharat Forge 18,164 Automobile 382 15 5,729 4.6
Bharti Airtel 2,98,965 Telecommuniction 555 20 11,097 8.8
UPL 34,840 Chemicals 478 15 7,172 5.7
Cash (Balancing) 835 1
Grand Total 1,25,611 100
Source: RSec Research; Note: * The prices and other data as of July 31, 2020
3Exhibit 2: New Inclusion into R Model Portfolio Exhibit 3: Stock Removed from the R Model Portfolio
Weight on date of Re- Weight on date of
Sr No Company Sr No Company
balancing (%) Re-balancing (%)
1 HCL Technologies 10.1 1 Infosys 10.0
2 Laurus Labs 3.7 2 Sun Pharma 3.4
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 4: Changes in Holdings
Sr No Company Previous (No. Of shares) Old Weight (%) New (No. Of shares) New Weight (%)
1 HDFC Bank 11 9.0 10 8.2
2 Kotak Mahindra Bank 6 6.5 5 5.4
3 State Bank of India 12 1.8 32 4.9
4 Dabur India 3 1.2 8 3.3
5 Indian Energy Exchange 30 4.3 15 2.1
Source: RSec Research
4Exhibit 5: Absolute Performance of R Model Portfolio v/s NIFTY 50 (Since Oct ’14) Exhibit 6: R Model Portfolio Out/Under-performance Relative to Nifty
160 10.0
7.7
150 5.4
5.0 3.8
140 2.3 2.7 2.1 2.1
1.5
0.8 0.7 1.2 1.3
0.6 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.6 0.1
0.1 0.3
130
0.0
(0.1) (0.1)
120 (1.3) (0.8) (1.2)(1.7)(1.6) (1.5) (2.1)
(2.2)
110 (5.0) (3.2) (3.4)
(4.0)
(5.0)
100 (7.5)
(10.0)
90 (10.6)
80 (15.0)
Oct-19
Oct-18
Oct-16
Oct-15
Oct-17
Jan-20
Jan-19
Jan-18
Apr-20
Jul-20
Jan-16
Apr-19
Jul-19
Jan-15
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-15
Jul-15
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr'15 Oct'15 Apr'16 Oct'16 Apr'17 Oct'17 Apr'18 Oct'18 Dec'18 Feb'19 Apr'19 June'19 Aug'19 Oct'19 Dec'19 Feb'20 Apr'20 Jun'20
to to to to to to to
Jun'15 Dec'15 Jun'16 Dec'16 Jun'17 Dec'17 Jun'18
RSec Model Protfolio NIFTY Outperformance / Underperformance relative to Nifty
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 7: R Model Portfolio v/s BSE 500 - Absolute performance Exhibit 8: R Model Portfolio Outperformance / Underperformance relative to BSE 500
20 2.5 2.2
2.0
2.0 1.7
10
1.5
1.0 1.0
1.0 0.8 0.7
0 0.5
0.4
0.5 0.2
(10) 0.0
(0.5) (0.3)
(20) (0.6) (0.6)
(1.0)
(1.5) (1.3)
(30) (1.4)
(2.0)
July'19
July'20
Dec'19
Apr'19
Nov'19
Jun'20
Jan'20
June'19
Feb'20
Apr'20
May'19
Oct'19
Aug'19
Sep'19
May'20
Mar'20
(2.5) (2.1)
Apr'19
May'19
Feb'20
Apr'20
May'20
Aug'19
Sep'19
Mar'20
Oct'19
Dec'19
Jun'20
June'19
Nov'19
Jan'20
July'19
July'20
RSec Model Protfolio BSE 500
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
5Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HDFC f HDFC Bank is expected to witness moderate loan growth of 14%/17% in FY21/ ICICI Bank* f Better portfolio-mix in terms of retail book, which is (~50% mortgages)
Bank* FY22 due to prolonged business disruption and risks emanating from COVID secured and improved share of corporate exposure to A-and above rated
led disruptions. However, as per the Management, the credit risks are still well book are likely to help the Bank to outperform its peers.
manageable after conducting stress tests. f However, given the challenges ahead and with slower loan book growth,
f Moreover, the Bank has been able to consistently maintain a healthy margin the Bank may focus on balance sheet strengthening, capital conservation
and costs rationalisation.
in the range of ~4.2-4.3% despite higher share of corporate loans over the last
f Additionally, limited residual corporate stress and ability to deliver healthy
few quarters.
growth in domestic loan book despite a weak operating environment also
f Given its strong liability/capital profile, healthy provisioning/operating profits augur well for its earnings.
absorbing asset-quality shocks, the bank is expected to maintain superior f Further, board approval of fund raising through equity issuance bodes well
return ratios even in the current stressed environment. Further, the approval for the bank, as it will aid it create a buffer against any possibility of surging
of Mr. Sashidhar Jagdishan as the next MD is likely to ease the overhang of bad assets led by COVID-19 disruption.
management change from the stock. f At CMP, the stock trades at 1.6x of FY22E and 1.4x of FY23E adjusted book
f At CMP, the stock trades at 2.6x of FY22E and 2.3x of FY23E adjusted book value. value.
Kotak f Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) continues to be a favorable play with the best- SBI* f Despite the challenging environment, the bank continues to remain
Mahindra in-class liability franchise, prudent underwriting, strong capital position and the best bet amongst the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) on the back of a
Bank* adequate margin levers. formidable liability franchise, well performing subsidiaries and better
capital positioning.
f The recently concluded Rs74bn fund-raising through QIP has provided buffer f A healthy recovery pipeline and lower tax rates remain the key earnings
capital to the company. levers in the subsequent quarters.
f Whilst its retail business loans are fully/partly secured, its SME book continues f Further, a sharp contraction in moratorium percentage during 1QFY21
to remain under stress and expected to be susceptible to the current tough bodes well for the bank from future earnings potential perspective.
scenario. Additionally, the extended moratorium is expected to pose risk and f At CMP, the stock trades at 0.7x of FY22E and 0.6x of FY23E adjusted book
thereby increase the cost of capital. value.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 3.8x of FY22E and 3.4x of FY23E adjusted book value. Manappuram f Manappuram Finance is expected to deliver healthy growth in gold loans,
Finance* which account for ~70% of its consolidated AUM owing to rise in gold
prices.
f However, the gold holding in terms of tonnage continues to decline due
to decrease in the outstanding customers largely led by the shift in focus
from growth to collections.
f Despite challenges on NPA front and higher credit cost on the non gold
segments, rising gold prices is beneficial for the Company.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 0.8x of FY22E adjusted book value.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
6Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HCL* f HCL Technology (HCLT) reported strong deal wins and margin resiliency in Hindustan f Hindustan Unilever is well-placed to gain from the increased consumer
1QFY21. Its organic revenue growth prospects remain bright for FY22E/FY23E Unilever* focus led by higher demand for personal wash, detergents and hygiene
given its healthy deal funnel and superior execution track record. products. Further, synergy benefits from GSK integration in the current
f Additionally, concerns around software/IP business are likely recede, going environment, focus on nutrition, deep distribution reach and LUP (Low
forward with consistent performance by the acquired software business. Unit Pricing) strategy have started yielding results.
f Further, market share gain through vendor consolidation and operational f Despite COVID-led uncertainty in the near-term, HUL is likely to
prudence along with focused cost optimization measures bode well for HCLT emerge stronger given strong brands, hygiene, deep distribution and
in the long-run. sustainability.
f In the medium-term, HCLT is well-placed amongst its peers on the back of f Additionally, cost saving measures and lower crude offer a positive
stable management, diversified client portfolio, steady large deal wins and margin outlook.
largely stable margin profile.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 51.6x of FY22E earnings.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 13.6x of FY23 EPS.
Titan* Dabur* f Dabur India is a structural growth story led by market share gains
f Sharp spike in the gold prices and decline in jewellery demand are likely to be across the core categories mainly supported by initiatives on distribution,
the key challenges in the medium- term. contemporisation of product offerings and higher rural salience.
f However, Titan’s strong pricing power in bridal and studded jewellery is likely to f The company is currently riding on rising consumer demand for immunity
drive meaningful expansion in margin. Its balance sheet remains strong, which boosters and hygiene products, which has resulted in sharp increase in
continues to support franchisees and vendors in these uncertain times. sales of Chawyanprash, Honey and OTC products.
f Titan remains one of the fastest growing companies in the consumer space with f Inflation in the agri-linked raw materials may impact the margins but
multiple growth levers and sectoral tailwinds. price increase, rising contribution from high margin products and cost
rationalization measures will help to sustain margins.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 42.5x of FY22E earnings.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 47.2x of FY22E earnings.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates (Contd.)
7Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
Indian Energy f Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) has a near monopoly in India’s short-term Laurus Labs* f Laurus Labs is a leading pharma company having strong presence in
Exchange* power trading market (with ~95% of the exchange volume traded), led by APIs for Antiretrovirals (ARVs) and formulation business.
superior execution, cost optimization and transparent price discovery.
f The company is expected to report healthy numbers ahead on the back
f India’s power sector is currently undergoing transition driven by increasing of diversified portfolio, increased customer base, addition of capacity for
reliance on short-term contracts and electricity spot markets. IEX, given its API/formulation and improved operating leverage.
dominance, is in a pole position to exploit the surge in spot power volumes.
f The management commentary was quite strong in its 1QFY21 results
f With the launch of RTM (Real Time Market) in June’20 and LDC (Long Duration
earnings concall. Based on growth visibility in formulations as well as
Contracts) (to be launched soon), IEX‘s market opportunity has broadly
doubled to 110 billion units. Widening of the product profile is expected to API segment, Laurus is confident of sustaining the earnings momentum,
fortify IEX’s positioning in the overall market. going forward.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 22.8x of FY22E earnings. f At CMP, the stock trades at 20.3x of FY22E earnings.
Havells India f Havells added 700 new dealers in FY20, which led to 12% CAGR in the last Sanofi India* f Sanofi India, the largest subsidiary of France-based Sanofi S.A., enjoys
five years. It has expanded its reach in rural markets to >2,000 towns with 2.3% domestic market share with focus on chronic segments i.e.
>21,000 outlets. diabetology, cardiology, dermatology and neurology apart from exposure
f Revenue recovery is expected to start with B2C and followed by B2B to vaccines, respiratory, pain management, gastrointestinal and anti
segments. While channel inventory is to be liquidated with pent-up demand, infective segments.
inventory re-filing is expected to happen gradually.
f The Company is expected to record strong growth from its exposure to
f The restructuring exercise, which started four years ago, has paid off well the chronic segment. Further, strong a balance sheet, substantial cash
with most segments are in ~Rs20bn bracket now. reserves, and strong brand equity offer additional comfort.
f Havells manufactures >90% products in-house, which helps it to maintain
f The recent Zentiva transaction is likely to improve the revenue-mix with
profitability and offer high quality products. It also reduces import
higher share of domestic business.
dependence thus lowering exposure to foreign currency fluctuation risks.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 75x FY21E and 55x of FY22E earnings. f At CMP, the stock trades at 33.2x CY21E and 31x CY22E earnings,
respectively.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
(Contd.)
8Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
IPCA f IPCA is a therapy leader in domestic market for anti-malaria with a market Bharat Forge f We expect Bharat Forge to witness superior performance led by expected
Laboratories* share of around 34% and is growing fast in the international market as rebound in domestic CV space on the back of stimulus-led bounce back in the
well. US and Europe HCV sales in FY22E.
f Recent approvals from USFDA for relaxation of its import alert against f Resumption of operation by global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
its Ratlam (API), Pithampur & Piparia unit for the supply of Chloroquine including North American truck makers and Indian OEMs generates positive
Phosphate (API) and Hydroxychloroquine Sulphate (API & tablets) to the US sentiment, while rebound in Chinese auto industry boosts recovery prospects
markets are significant for its generic & API exports. of the global automobile industry.
f Given the strong outlook for generic & API exports, the expected uptick f Likely turnaround of overseas operations will benefit Bharat Forge’s operating
in the tender business aided by contribution from anti-malarials and the margin and strengthen its consolidated balance sheet.
market beating mid-teen growth in domestic formulations, we expect f Considering the multiple positive triggers on revenue and margin front from
operating leverage to improve further. long-term perspective, we expect the stock’s valuation to steadily move
f At CMP, the stock trades at 24.7x/18.1x its FY22E/FY23E earnings. towards its previous peak multiple.
Escorts f We expect the domestic tractor industry to witness a decent traction being f At CMP, the stock trades at 27x of FY22E EPS and 15x of FY23EPS.
connected with the most essential items of agri output hereon.
f Further, we expect a flat to marginal growth for the tractor industry in Bharti Airtel* f Bharti Airtel has been reporting a relatively stronger retention of its revenue
FY21E and it would outperform strongly to other Auto segments. market share. It enjoys a comfortable leverage vis-à-vis its peers.
f Based on changing dynamics of the industry and fundamentally f We further note that while the AGR issue continues to be sub-judice, its survival
favourable triggers like strong monsoons, healthy Rabi output, higher is assured post fund-raising and tariff hike Tariff hikes taken in December and
Kharif sowing and increasing non-agri usage, we expect the tractor healthy 4G subscriber adds is likely to witness improvement in ARPU and
industry to record strong sales in 2HFY21E. hence healthy growth in profitability
f Improving cost structure in the construction equipment segment, better f Further, given the telecom space is the least impacted due to COViD-19
traction in the high- margin railway segment with its rising order book pandemic and is expected to benefit much from the evolving concept of Work
would further expand its margin, going forward. From Home, Bharti Airtel can potentially see re-rating in subsequent quarters.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 14x of FY22E EPS and 12.5x of FY23EPS.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 8.1x and 7x of FY22E and FY23E EV/EBITDA,
respectively.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
9Stock Name Investment Arguments
UPL* f UPL has been gaining market share with a diversified product portfolio
consisting of seeds, seed treatment solutions, post-harvest solutions, and
industrial chemicals. A coherent business model, merger synergies with
Arysta and strong start to season in July in LatAm will help UPL to deliver
~8% revenue growth in FY21E. Cash from operations increased 85% YoY
in 1QFY21 on the back of higher payable days and lower receivable days
despite tight supply chain items. Even during COVID-19 pandemic, UPL’s
net profit surged albeit on a low base.
f UPL is set to improve return ratios by increasing revenue via market share
gains, higher margin via synergy benefits and lower input prices, and
reduction in working capital days.
f Further, a normal-to-better monsoon forecast suggest a strong
consumption of agrochemicals in the upcoming Kharif season, which is
likely to support the company’s growth.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 8x of FY23E EPS.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
10Binod
Digitally signed by Binod Kumar Modi
DN: c=IN, o=Personal, title=3026,
pseudonym=83f141887ea5611cae89e
a9201c89604f51ddd1e,
Kumar
2.5.4.20=6274c6649035dd5b6b46649
6cc656358d274dbec9dfde7f091839d7
a18664df2, postalCode=410206,
st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=dbb78a45d7a238b2211
Modi c6fce27ce198baf3cb8574ebd4dffb82e
e67b9835310e, cn=Binod Kumar Modi
Date: 2020.08.05 08:48:43 +05'30'
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