R Model Portfolio February 2021 - Institutional Equity Research - Reliance Securities
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Institutional Equity Research February 04, 2021
R Model Portfolio
February 2021
Binod Modi
Head Strategy
Contact: 9870009382
Email: binod.modi@relianceada.com
D. Vijiya Rao
Senior Research Associate
Contact : 9321404056
Email : vijiya.rao@relianceada.com
1On a Sweet Spot
Having seen a broad-based rally in Dec’20 led by favourable global cues and sharp recovery in key economic data, domestic equities fell prey to hefty profit booking
towards the end of Jan’21, which led the benchmark Nifty to record 2.5% contraction on month-on-month basis. While the proposal of huge US$1.9trillion fiscal stimulus
announcement by the US President offered support to equities across the globe in the beginning of Jan’21, threat of possible rise in inflation, continued surge in coronavirus
cases in the USA and European nations and ambiguity over passage of huge fiscal stimulus due to shortage of senate majority weighed on performance of global equities
towards the end of the month. Notably, though the FPIs sold >Rs120bn in the last week of Jan’21 mainly led by profit booking ahead of union budget, they remained the net
buyers to the tune of Rs195bn during the month.
Despite high volatility and sharp correction in the benchmark indices, our R-Model Portfolio continued to show its resilience in Jan’21 and outperformed Nifty and BSE 500
by 240bps and 170bps, respectively. With a return of 14.9%, R-Model Portfolio has outperformed Nifty/BSE 500 by 850bps/620bps in 2020.
Going forward, domestic equities are expected to do well in 2021 given the impetus offered in the Union Budget towards reviving economic activities. A significant rise
in capital expenditures and higher allocation towards infrastructure are likely to result in sustained corporate earnings recovery in the subsequent quarters. Additionally,
soft monetary policy of global central bankers, huge fiscal stimulus announced by the US President, weak dollar and improved visibility of sharp earnings recovery should
continue to act as key tailwinds to attract the FPIs into domestic market in the medium-to-long-term. (please refer our 2021 India Strategy Note)
Union Budget Offers Much Needed Impetus
High frequency key economic indicators have been witnessing sharp rebound on the back of sharp recovery in economic activities in phases as well as significant increase
in government spending under Aatmanirbhar Bharat programme. As private consumption remained subdued, the government push was much needed to sustain the recent
rebound in economic momentum. We believe sharp 26% increase in capital expenditures along with several measures/reforms to revive infrastructure and investment
activities augurs well for the economy and the capital market. This will certainly aid rebound in corporate earnings to sustain, which should essentially result in sustainability
of premium valuations. (Please refer our Union Budget 2021-2022 Note)
Multiple Tailwinds Exist for Domestic Equities
Given the current environment, it clearly appears that 2021 could be one of the best years in the recent period, as there are multiple tailwinds supporting the domestic
equities. Low interest rate cycle is one of the most important catalysts, which should continue to support corporate earnings. Further, lower spread between market earnings
and G-Sec yield offers an edge to equities. Additionally, PLI scheme to boost manufacturing, strong focus on rural economy, huge investments in infrastructure, ongoing
revival in real estate markets and measures to address NPA issues of the banks by forming a bad bank indicate a brighter scenario of the economy. Even from global
perspective, continued soft stance of the global central bankers, weak dollar and huge fiscal stimulus in the USA should continue to act as tailwinds to attract the FPI inflows
into domestic markets.
Portfolio Reshuffling: Adding Sagar Cements
Given opportunity emanating from huge infrastructure investment and ongoing traction in cement volume from the rural markets, bet on cement companies makes a sense.
We are adding Sagar Cements (SGC) in the place of SRF. SGC is expected to witness strong traction in the ensuing quarters led by capacity addition in new geographies and
continued improvement in operating efficiency.
2Exhibit 1: Updated R Model Portfolio – February 2021
Market Cap* Price* Investment Value* Weight in Portfolio*
Company Sector No. of shares
(Rs Cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%)
HDFC Bank 8,55,302 BFSI 1,391 10 13,905 8.4
ICICI Bank 4,21,549 BFSI 537 21 11,277 6.8
State Bank of India 2,99,019 BFSI 282 32 9,027 5.4
HDFC Ltd 4,84,324 BFSI 2,378 3 7,133 4.3
LIC Housing Finance 23,000 BFSI 396 29 11,475 6.9
HCL Technologies 2,60,824 IT 914 9 8,226 4.9
Tech Mahindra 93,910 IT 961 9 8,653 5.2
Titan Co 1,32,515 Consumer 1,420 6 8,522 5.1
Dabur India 93,293 Consumer 515 8 4,116 2.5
Indian Energy Exchange 7,616 Power 246 15 3,694 2.2
Laurus Labs 18,566 Pharmaceuticals 345 25 8,634 5.2
Cadila Healthcare 49,339 Pharmaceuticals 456 22 10,028 6.0
IPCA Laboratories 25,454 Pharmaceuticals 1,852 4 7,408 4.5
Mahindra & Mahindra 1,09,214 Automobile 750 14 10,494 6.3
Ashok Leyland 40,422 Automobile 111 109 12,077 7.3
Bharti Airtel 3,29,434 Telecommunication 554 26 14,394 8.7
Sagar Cements 1,633 Cement 651 17 11,071 6.7
Cash (Balancing) 6,179 4
Grand Total 1,66,313 100
Source: RSec Research; Note: * The prices and other data as of 29 January 2021
3Exhibit 2: New Inclusion into R Model Portfolio Exhibit 3: Stock Removed from the R Model Portfolio
Weight on date of Re- Weight on date of
Sr No Company Sr No Company
balancing (%) Re-balancing (%)
1 Sagar Cements 6.7 1 SRF 6.5
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 4: Changes in Holdings
Sr No Company Previous (No. Of shares) Old Weight (%) New (No. Of shares) New Weight (%)
No Changes
Source: RSec Research
4Exhibit 5: Absolute Performance of R Model Portfolio v/s NIFTY 50 (Since Oct ’14) Exhibit 6: R Model Portfolio Out/Under-performance Relative to Nifty
180 10.0
170 7.7 7.8
8.0
160 5.4
6.0
150 4.4
3.8
4.0 3.3
140 2.4
2.1
130 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
0.7 1.0 1.0
0.6
0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1
120
0.0
110 (0.1)
(0.8) (0.4)(0.1)(0.1)
(2.0) (1.2)
100 (1.7)(1.6) (1.5)
(2.2) (2.1)
90 (4.0) (3.4)
(3.7)
80 (6.0) (5.0)
Oct-20
Oct-19
Oct-18
Oct-16
Oct-15
Oct-17
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-19
Jan-18
Apr-20
Jul-20
Jan-16
Apr-19
Jul-19
Jan-15
Apr-18
Jul-18
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-15
Jul-15
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Jan'17 Jul'17 to Jan'18 July'18 Nov'18 Jan'19 Mar'19 May'19 July'19 Sep'19 Nov'19 Jan'20 Mar'20 May'20 July'20 Sep'20 Nov'20 Jan'21
to Sep'17 to to
Mar'17 Mar'18 Sep'18
Outperformance / Underperformance relative to Nifty 50
RSec Model Protfolio NIFTY
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 7: R Model Portfolio v/s BSE 500 - Absolute performance Exhibit 8: R Model Portfolio Outperformance / Underperformance relative to BSE 500
20.0 4.0 3.5
15.0
3.0
10.0 2.2
2.0
5.0 2.0 1.7 1.7
- 1.0
0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7
-5.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2
0.1 0.0
-10.0
-
-15.0
-20.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4
-0.6 -0.6
-25.0 -1.3
-2.0 -1.4
-30.0
-2.1
July'19
July'20
Dec'19
Apr'19
Nov'19
Jun'20
Dec'20
Jan'20
June'19
Feb'20
Apr'20
Nov'20
Jan'21
May'19
Oct'19
-3.0
Aug'19
Sep'19
May'20
Oct'20
Mar'20
Aug'20
Sep'20
Nov'19
June'19
Nov'20
May'19
Oct'19
July'19
Aug'19
Sep'19
May'20
Oct'20
Mar'20
July'20
Aug'20
Dec'19
Sep'20
Apr'19
Jun'20
Dec'20
Jan'20
Feb'20
Apr'20
Jan'21
RSec Model Protfolio BSE 500
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
5Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HDFC Bank* f With improved collection efficiency, superior asset quality and low credit cost, HDFC SBI* f Despite the challenging environment, the bank continues to remain the best bet amongst
Bank (HDFCB) is poised to deliver better operating performance, going ahead. the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) on the back of a formidable liability franchise, well
performing subsidiaries and better capital positioning.
f Franchise strength, strong liability traction and a strong focus on digital initiatives,
data analytics and automation will help the bank to improve its market share and f The recent regulatory guidelines on restructuring and current account operations are
deliver market-leading advances growth. expected to be positive for the bank. Further, with PCR of 88% as on Sept’20 and better
capitalization, bank stands on a firm ground in ongoing challenging scenario.
f Momentum in advances will be led by both corporate and retail book aided by
f At CMP, the stock trades at 1.3x of FY22E and 1.1x of FY23E adjusted book value.
favourable cost of funds/deposit.
f Provisioning buffers (including floating and contingency provisioning) are adequate
HDFC Ltd.* f HDFC has been successfully maintaining spreads and NIM across interest rate cycles.
for any contingency due to the pandemic. We expect it to deliver superior risk
Given the strength of its liability franchise, we think that this interest rate cycle will be no
adjusted asset quality with much lower credit cost vs. peers.
different.
f Quality underwriting has helped HDFCB to demonstrate better resolution rates f HDFC’s balance sheet is one of the strongest, especially given the kind of economic value
and deliver superior risk-adjusted return ratios (vs. peers) even during the current of its subsidiaries. Ability to monetize this economic value and create contingency buffers
pandemic. provides further strength to its balance sheet.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 3.8x of FY22E and 3.3x of FY23E adjusted book value. f In individual mortgage book, its collection efficiency, which stood at ~97.6% in Dec’ 20 (up
130bps QoQ) corroborates its claim that majority of its customers opted for moratorium
just out of caution to conserve cash.
ICICI Bank* f Better portfolio-mix in terms of retail book, which is secured (~50% mortgages) and
f At CMP, the stock trades at 4.2x of FY22E and 3.9x of FY23E adjusted book value.
improved share of corporate book to A- and above rated corporate are likely to
help the ICICI Bank to deliver relatively superior asset quality. LIC Housing f Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are expected to witness healthy traction in the
f Apart from making additional provisioning, the bank has also maintained a high Finance * coming months led by visible recovery in real estate markets and softening of cost of
PCR on its NPA exposure. It expects the credit cost to normalize from FY22 onwards. funds (CoF).
f Its collection efficiency and demand resolution have been improving significantly f Disbursements returned to pre-COVID level and recorded 28% YoY growth in
on MoM basis with retail/credit card demand resolution already coming back disbursements with the growth in individual home loan segment recording 36% YoY
to ~98% of pre-COVID level. The bank restructured ~0.4% of outstanding loan growth.
portfolio. We see significant upside from normalization in credit cost and the bank’s f Incremental CoF declined by 56bps QoQ to 5.25% in 3QFY21 primarily on account of
ability to deliver superior NIM once the higher liquidity on the balance sheet starts renegotiation of bank loans and drop in NCD rates. It is expected to decline further,
coming down. going forward as high cost liabilities are replaced with low cost liabilities. Further, NIM
is expected to remain either stable or improve slightly, going forward.
f We expect disbursal to witness strong growth 2HFY21E, which along with likely
reduction in CoF is likely to aid its profitability in subsequent quarters.
f At CMP, the stock trades at less than 0.9x of its FY23 consensus book value, which
looks to be quite attractive.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
6Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HCL* f HCL Technologies (HCLT) reported strong revenue growth and margin resiliency Titan* f Recovery in jewellery division continued to sustain in 3QFY21 as well led by
in 3QFY21. Its organic revenue growth prospects remain bright for FY22E/FY23E higher festive demand. Other segments including watches and eyewear also
given its healthy deal funnel and superior execution track record. witnessed sharp recovery in 3QFY21.
f Additionally, concerns around software/IP business are likely to recede, going f In our view, Titan’s strong pricing power in bridal and studded jewellery is likely
forward with consistent performance by the acquired software business. to drive meaningful expansion in margin. Its balance sheet remains strong,
f Further, market share gain through vendor consolidation and operational which continues to support franchisees and vendors in these uncertain times.
prudence along with focused cost optimization measures bode well for HCLT
f Titan remains one of the fastest growing companies in the consumer space with
in the long-run.
multiple growth levers and sectoral tailwinds.
f In the medium-term, HCLT is well-placed amongst its peers on the back of
stable management, diversified clients’ portfolio, steady large deal wins and f At CMP, the stock trades at 69x of FY22E and 56.7x of FY23E earnings.
largely stable margin profile.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 16.2x of FY23 EPS. Dabur India* f Dabur India is a structural growth story led by market share gains across the
core categories mainly supported by initiatives on distribution, contemporisation
Tech Mahindra f TechM is likely to get immensely benefited owing to expansion of 5G value of product offerings and higher rural resilience.
chain across networks and IT services. A likely pick-up in investments by f Given favourable outlook for rural growth, going ahead on the back of likely
communication service providers and higher 5G adoption by enterprise bode good Rabi crop and the government schemes, we believe Dabur stands to
well for the company. gain given higher rural salience (46% revenue share).
f Expectation of strong recovery in BPO business, stability around network
f Further, accelerating consumers’ shift to preventive healthcare and immunity
services revenue, and growth in BFSI, healthcare, and technology verticals are
likely to be the key revenue drivers for the company in near-to-medium term. boosting products, where Dabur has a significant presence, offers it an edge
over peers.
f Further, higher off-shoring, reduction in subcontractor expenses and traction
in acquired entities are likely to aid margin expansion in the ensuing quarters. f Additionally, transformation from being fearful to fearless in new product
f Further, a widened valuation discount compared to Tier-I peers also offers launches, execution agility, cost consciousness, enhance technology and
comfort. analytics data augur wee for the company.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 14.8x of FY23 EPS. f It remains a long-term structural story in Indian consumption space.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 47.7x of FY22E and 41.7x of FY23E earnings.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates (Contd.)
7Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
Indian Energy f Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) has a near monopoly in India’s short-term power Cadila f Cadila is expected to see healthy traction in US businesses, as it plans to
Exchange* trading market (with ~95% of the exchange volume traded), led by superior Healthcare* venture into complex injectable business. Further, addition of biosimilars
execution, cost optimization and transparent price discovery. for the emerging markets is expected to boost growth, going forward.
f India’s power sector is currently undergoing transition driven by increasing f Its domestic formulation business is also expected to grow in double
reliance on short-term contracts and electricity spot markets. IEX, given its digit hereon due to new launches and restructuring of businesses by
dominance, is in a pole position to exploit the surge in spot power volumes. rationalizing the slow-moving SKUs.
f Further, completion of Phase-III clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine and
f Electricity volume on IEX picked sharply due to continued growth in day-ahead
likely approval from the government is likely to be strong trigger for the
market (DAM) volume and strong volume for the recently launched Real Time
company, which can lead to sharp rerating.
Market (RTM). Launch of new products such as RTM and Green Term Ahead
Market (G-TAM) can also be attributed to higher electricity volume. Going f At CMP, the stock trades at 23.5x of FY22E and 21.8x of FY23E earnings.
forward, widening of the product profile is expected to fortify IEX’s positioning
in the overall market. IPCA f IPCA is a therapy leader in domestic market for anti-malaria with a market
f At CMP, the stock trades at 32.1x of FY22E and 28.6x of FY23E earnings. Laboratories* share of around 34% and is growing fast in the international market as well.
f Approvals from USFDA for relaxation of its import alert against its Ratlam
Laurus Labs* f Laurus Labs is a leading pharma company having strong presence in APIs for (API), Pithampur & Piparia unit for the supply of Chloroquine Phosphate
Antiretrovirals (ARVs) and formulation business. (API) and Hydroxychloroquine Sulphate (API & tablets) to the US markets
are significant for its generic & API exports.
f The company expects to maintain its strong performance on the back of
diversified portfolio, increased customer base, addition of capacity for API/ f Given the strong outlook for generic & API exports, the expected uptick
formulations and improved operating leverage. in the tender business aided by contribution from anti-malarials and the
f It continues to strengthen its performance on the back of a strong order book market beating mid-teen growth in domestic formulations, we expect
in antiretroviral (ARV) as well as non-ARV segments. While the ARV segment operating leverage to improve further.
remains the key growth driver currently, it is building additional levers like
CDMO services on biotechnology front, adding new dosage capabilities and f At CMP, the stock trades at 21.8x of FY22E and 19.1x of FY23E earnings.
building an ANDA pipeline for the US market.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 18x of FY22E and 15.4x of FY23E earnings.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
(Contd.)
8Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
M&M f Ongoing healthy tractor volume along with likely strong outperformance in Bharti Airtel* f Bharti Airtel has been reporting a relatively stronger retention of its revenue
the coming quarters is the single biggest trigger for Mahindra & Mahindra market share. It enjoys a comfortable leverage vis-à-vis its peers.
(M&M). f Bharti’s execution has been commendable in the last few quarters, which is
f Fundamental parameters remain favourable for tractor segment. M&M’s evident from a strong 16% EBITDA growth in India mobile business during last
segmental profitability from tractor segment is high enough (~60% of two quarters.
operating profit is attributable to Farm segment) to support overall business. f A key overhang of AGR dues is passed now after the Supreme Court in a
landmark judgment allowed the company to pay AGR dues over the period
f We believe that the government’s focus on agri sector and rural thrust
of 10 years.
would help faster recovery in rural markets in FY21E. In tractor segment
also, M&M is expected to regain the lost market share albeit partially in f Likely tariff hike in subsequent months could be a near term trigger for the
2HFY21E. company.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 8x and 7x of FY22E and FY23E EV/EBITDA,
f Strategic decision on capital allocation, focus on core business and
respectively.
investment, growing high-margin tractor segment and likely recovery in
automobile segment would result in steady expansion in M&M’s valuation
multiple, going forward. Sagar f Looking ahead, Sagar Cements (SGC) is expected to see healthy traction led by
Cement likely demand recovery in its key markets.
Ashok Leyland f We believe higher-than-expected double-digit decline in M&HCV volume f Further, commissioning of new capacities in central and eastern regions
in FY20 and expectation of similar decline in FY21E have already been is expected to aid its profitability, as these plants can potentially generate
factored in. healthier margin.
f Healthy agri output and government’s focus on infrastructure to revive f Notably, the initiatives undertaken by the company over last couple of years
economy are likely to bring back cheers for the economy in 2HFY21. to improve operating efficiencies have started yielding desired results. SGC’s
operating cost per tonne has become fairly competitive in the industry, which
f Pent-up demand of previous 3 years would be the single biggest catalyst
provides it an edge.
for strong revival by the end of FY21E.
f The company is expected to report sustainable double-digit volume growth in
f We see AL as a multi-bagger opportunity and at current valuation, as risk the long-term on the back of substantial increase in capacity.
reward appears to be highly favourable despite short-term hiccups. f At CMP, the stock trades at very attractive valuations.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 14x of FY23E EPS.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
9Binod
Digitally signed by Binod Kumar Modi
DN: c=IN, o=Personal, title=3026,
pseudonym=83f141887ea5611cae89ea
9201c89604f51ddd1e,
Kumar
2.5.4.20=6274c6649035dd5b6b466496
cc656358d274dbec9dfde7f091839d7a1
8664df2, postalCode=410206,
st=Maharashtra,
Modi
serialNumber=dbb78a45d7a238b2211
c6fce27ce198baf3cb8574ebd4dffb82ee
67b9835310e, cn=Binod Kumar Modi
Date: 2021.02.04 20:52:24 +05'30'
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