Q1 2021 PAN India - ANAROCK Property Consultants
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Residential Market Viewpoints
PAN India
Q1
2021
04 06 07 08
New Launch Sales Available Average
Supply Trend Inventory Price
Foreword
A New Decade - A New Beginning
The year 2020 can be documented in the Reduced cost multiple of homeownership
history of mankind as a Black Swan event with rising income levels and declining home
that brought the entire world to a halt and loan rates enabled buyers to settle for a hard
the global economy being rendered inert. asset. Stamp duty reduction in states like
While India also faced the brunt of the Maharashtra followed by Karnataka (for
unprecedented crisis created by the COVID- affordable housing) made the home buying
19 outbreak and the subsequent lockdown, propositions more lucrative. Sales
the economy proved to be resilient due to a registrations in Maharashtra in March 2021
slew of reforms and stimulus packages were (approximately 12,700 units) 3.3 times
announced by the government. The revival the registrations in March 2020. The euphoria
was quick as evident from the economic on the street is evident from the new records
growth turning positive in a matter of few achieved by many developers clocking best-
quarters. ever quarterly sales in the recent periods and
a few major housing finance companies
The real estate sector, particularly the disbursing the highest volumes of loans.
housing segment demonstrated exceptional
suppleness as cities unlocked and the The increasing presence of organized
restrictions began to ease across the country. developers is re-instating homebuyer
The year gone by was undoubtedly confidence. The share of sales by organized
exemplary as it reduced real estate activities developers has already risen from 17% in
to its all-time low in the decade but within no FY’17 to 40% in Q3 FY’21.
time the sector sprang back into action
charting a recovery. The segment had The pandemic has altered the buyers’
fathomed the bottom and has now begun to preferences. Their predilections are for
chart a new growth trajectory. larger layouts with higher safety, hygiene,
and captive amenities to ensure safe
The continued trend of rising new launches distancing yet secure an apartment that
during the current quarter stands testimony compliments their lifestyle.
to the renewed demand and the confidence
of developers who are optimistic about the The housing demand is likely to become
future. The top 7 cities recorded an increase stronger over the period, but the pace may
in launches in Q1 2021 to 62,130 units which is slow down as the stimuli of the low-interest
18% more than the previous quarter and 51% rates and stamp duty cuts will soon come to
more on y-o-y basis. Housing sales also an end. These measures may not be eternal
bounced back to 58,290 units which is 15% and will either be revised or revoked in the
more on quarterly basis and 29% in a year. future which will impact the housing demand
temporarily. However, in the short term,
This stupendous recovery of the housing markets are likely to be active and it looks
market in the country can be attributed to almost certain that the housing demand will
several factors that made the sector continue to remain upbeat.
attractive. Bottomed-out property prices in
most top cities including MMR following
developer discounts have been instrumental
in triggering demand.
ANUJ PURI
Founder & Chairman
ANAROCK Group
2 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
Key Highlights Q1 2021 | PAN India NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY TREND Launches across the top 7 cities continued to gain momentum during the first quarter of 2021. All cities, except Hyderabad exceeded their volumes compared to the last quarter as the housing demand improved with the after-effects of COVID outbreak now receding amidst ongoing vaccination drive. Major cities such as MMR, NCR, Pune and Bengaluru recorded over 20% rise in launches compared to the previous quarter. The mid-end segment dominated the launches and accounted for nearly 43% of the total supply. The affordable segment made a comeback in Q1 2021, accounting for nearly 30% 62,130 18% compared to a share of 25% in the previous quarter. Units Q-o-Q SALES TREND Sales across the top 7 cities increased by 15% compared to the previous quarter. The cities recorded growth in the range of 10% to 23%. MMR and Pune accounted for more than 50% of the total sales in Q1 2021. The stamp duty waiver has been instrumental in 58,290 15% furthering sales in these cities. Units Q-o-Q AVAILABLE INVENTORY Supply exceeded the sales marginally in Q1 2021 as well as in the previous quarter as well, which resulted in the increase in available inventory. Chennai recorded the lowest available inventory among the 641,860 1% top 7 cities. Units Q-o-Q TOP 7 CITIES City New Launches Sold Units Available Inventory Avg. Price (INR/sf) NCR 6,750 8,790 168,360 4,650 MMR 14,820 20,350 197,040 10,750 Bengaluru 7,690 8,670 58,350 5,060 Pune 13,820 10,550 96,440 5,580 Hyderabad 12,620 4,400 44,980 4,240 Chennai 4,620 2,850 36,220 4,990 Kolkata 1,810 2,680 40,470 4,400 Budget Segmentation: PAN India refers to Top 7 cities of India only Affordable: < INR 40 Lakh Average price in INR/sf as quoted on BSP on BUA Mid-end: INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh High-end: INR 80 Lakh - INR 1.5 Cr Luxury: INR 1.5 Cr - INR 2.5 Cr Ultra-luxury: > INR 2.5 Cr 3 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
New Launch Supply Trend
PAN India
80,000
62,130
70,000 Units
60,000
COVID-19
50,000 lockdown
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2 018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2 019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 202 0 Q3 2 020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
1 Launches continued to rise across the top 7 cities in Q1 2021, recording an 18% increase
from the previous quarter and 51% rise compared to the same period last year.
2 Most of the cities have recorded significant growth in launches in the range of 15% to 74%.
MMR, Pune, and NCR together accounted for over 69% of the total launches.
3 Due to a surge in housing demand amidst the declining threat of COVID outbreak, the
developers now have a better hold on the future and are looking to launch new projects.
TOP 7 CITIES City Q1-21 Q4-20 Q1-20 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
NCR 6,750 5,520 6,190 22% 9%
All cities largely witnessed an increase in MMR 14,820 11,910 10,490 24% 41%
supply over the previous quarter. In fact, Bengaluru 7,690 6,400 8,600 20% -11%
Pune attained a new peak since Q1 2019. Pune 13,820 11,200 7,790 23% 77%
Hyderabad 12,620 12,820 3,380 -2% 273%
Hyderabad continued to record high volume Chennai 4,620 3,930 3,680 17% 26%
of supply albeit marginally short compared Kolkata 1,810 1,040 1,090 74% 66%
to last quarter.
HYDERABAD
PUNE
4 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
New Launch Supply Trend
By Budget Segmentation
2% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
4% 6% 4% 8%
5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6%
4% 9% 8%
20% 16% 13% 15% 16%
15% 15% 17% 19% 19%
24%
20%
31% 33% 40% 32% 36% 67%
32% 36%
41%
32% 41% 43%
43%
44% 42% 44% 41% 41%
38% 34% 38%
33% 30% 30%
25% 25%
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2 018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2 019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 202 0 Q3 2 020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
1 While the share of affordable housing increased to 30% in Q1 2021, the share of mid-
segment remained largely stable from the previous quarter.
2 MMR, Pune and NCR contributed nearly 71% of the launches in affordable segment across
the top 7 cities of India.
TOP 7 CITIES – Q1 2021
1% 1% 3% 2% 2%
4% 5%
3%
10% 9%
Hyderabad and Pune accounted 21% 14% 8%
for nearly 89% of the supply in the 18%
mid-end and high-end segments in 21%
28%
14% 20%
Q1 2021.
22%
The gap between affordable and 18%
38% 60%
mid-end segment in Kolkata has
narrowed down gradually over the 28%
last 3 years. The mid segment
47%
accounted for only 4% while
affordable segment had a share of 61%
89% in Q1 2018. Currently, the mid- 55% 52%
segment accounts for 38%
41%
indicating the changing preference 38%
of buyers. 29%
21%
In NCR, the share of the luxury 5%
segment increased from 1% in the Bengaluru Che nnai Hyderabad Kolkata Pune NCR MMR
previous quarter to 14% in Q1 2021,
indicating that this segment is
Budget Segmentation:
back in action. Affordable: < INR 40 Lakh
Mid-end: INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh
High-end: INR 80 Lakh - INR 1.5 Cr
Luxury: INR 1.5 Cr - INR 2.5 Cr
Ultra-luxury: > INR 2.5 Cr
5 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
Sales Trend
PAN India
80,000
70,000 58,290
Units
60,000
COVID-19
50,000 lockdown
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2 018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2 019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 202 0 Q3 2 020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
1 Total sales in Q1 2021 increased by 15% on quarter and 29% on year.
2 Range-bound prices, improved affordability, employment stability, all-time low home loan
rates along with the government stimulus of reduced stamp duty enabled sales.
3 Discounts/offers by developers to liquidate inventory also triggered sales across cities.
4 While previously buyers preferred only completed projects or those nearing completion to
mitigate execution risk and project delays, we have noted a renewed interest in new
launches during the quarter.
TOP 7 CITIES City Q1-21 Q4-20 Q1-20 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
NCR 8,790 7,760 8,150 13% 8%
All cities witnessed an increase in sales to MMR 20,350 17,600 13,910 16% 46%
the tune of 10% to 23%, over the previous Bengaluru 8,670 7,900 8,630 10% Nil
quarter as the fear of the pandemic got Pune 10,550 9,260 7,200 14% 47%
allayed with the prospects of the vaccine Hyderabad 4,400 3,570 2,680 23% 64%
ensuring restoration of employment and Chennai 2,850 2,460 2,190 16% 30%
economic activities. Kolkata 2,680 2,350 2,440 14% 10%
MMR
PUNE
6 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
Available Inventory Trend
PAN India
720,000
COVID-19
700,000 lockdown
680,000
660,000 641,860
Units
640,000
620,000
600,000
580,000
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2 018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2 019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 202 0 Q3 2 020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
1 Available inventory marginally increased by 1% compared to Q4 2020. This increase is
primarily due to supply exceeding sales for two consecutive quarters. However, it is a
good indicator of renewed confidence among the developers and brighter prospects for
the future.
2 NCR, MMR, Bengaluru and Kolkata recorded marginal reduction in available inventory
compared to the previous quarter.
TOP 7 CITIES City Q1-21 Q4-20 Q1-20 Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
NCR 168,360 170,400 173,120 -1% -3%
Hyderabad recorded a significant increase of MMR 197,040 202,570 213,180 -3% -8%
22% in available inventory due to high Bengaluru 58,350 59,330 62,790 -2% -7%
volume of launches during the current and Pune 96,440 93,180 93,310 4% 3%
the previous quarter. Hyderabad 44,980 36,760 24,910 22% 81%
Chennai 36,220 34,450 33,510 5% 8%
Chennai continues to record the lowest
Kolkata 40,470 41,340 43,600 -2% -7%
available inventory across the major cities as
of Q1 2021.
CHENNAI HYDERABAD
7 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
Available Inventory Trend
By Budget Segmentation
2%
5% 6% 3% 5% 5% 3%
12% 2%
7% 7% 7%
8% 14% 11%
15% 12%
23%
28% 23%
40%
23%
39%
35%
41%
22% 35%
37% 61%
42%
38%
31%
23% 24%
11%
NCR MMR Bengaluru Pune Hyderabad Che nnai Kolkata
1 The affordable and the mid segments account for the Budget Segmentation:
Affordable: < INR 40 Lakh
highest share of available inventory across the cities. Mid-end: INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh
High-end: INR 80 Lakh - INR 1.5 Cr
Luxury: INR 1.5 Cr - INR 2.5 Cr
2 Bengaluru recorded a reduction in available inventory Ultra-luxury: > INR 2.5 Cr
despite significant launches in the mid segment during
the quarter. This may be attributed to the need for
extra spaces considering that the IT-ITeS
professionals continue to work from home.
3 Kolkata has the highest available inventory in the
affordable segment due to continued supply addition.
CAPITAL VALUES & INVENTORY OVERHANG
Avg. Base Selling Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Inventory Q-o-Q Y-o-Y
City
Price (INR/sf) (%) (%) Overhang* Change* Change*
NCR 4,650 2% 2% 85 -3 +35
MMR 10,750 1% 1% 47 -8 +11
Bengaluru 5,060 2% 2% 28 -1 +11
Pune 5,580 1% 1% 43 -5 +12
Hyderabad 4,240 1% 1% 53 1 +31
Chennai 4,990 1% 1% 59 -3 +21
Kolkata 4,400 Nil Nil 66 -4 +24
*In months
Prices increased marginally in Q1 2021 as the housing demand has witnessed a renewed interest.
Also, the inputs costs have increased during the past few months. However, the developers
continue to remain cautious to ensure continuity of sales.
Pan India inventory overhang decreased by 4 months during the quarter as majority of the cities
witnessed an increase in sales.
8 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
Inventory Overhang v/s New Launch
Supply v/s Available Inventory
Note: Size of the circle represents
18,000 available inventory as of Q1 2021
16,000 MMR
14,000 Pune
Hyderabad
12,000
Launches (No. of Units)
10,000
8,000
Bengaluru
NCR
Chennai
6,000
4,000
2,000
Kolkata
0 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Inventory Overhang (Months)
1 Bengaluru seems to be the healthiest market across the top 7 cities with low availability
and an inventory overhang on less than 30 months.
2 Chennai with the least availability has an inventory overhang of nearly 5 years due to low
sales volume.
BENGALURU CHENNAI
9 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021
5 Key Takeaways
Q1 2021
As the prospects the country to get vaccinated becomes a reality, the fear of a second wave is
gripping on us. It is true that the country and the economy has emerged resilient and stronger
from the periods of lockdown experienced last year. However, if such a scenario is to be
repeated, the government may take steps to stimulate the economy as assured. The massive
vaccination drive undertaken may not result in the recurrence of such extreme situations.
The housing market across the major cities have recovered and scaling up once again from a
bottom that was forced. The demand is renewed as evident from the upward trend of launches
and sales. While the prices may continue an upward trend, the rise is expected be gradual. The
stimulus offered in the form of low interest rates to keep the economy buoyant may continue for
some more time till the inflation is manageable. Albeit it may not be sustainable for long.
The time bound measures of reduced stamp duty in Maharashtra and a few other states
stimulated sales in the last quarter. However, as this comes to an end, there may be some
sluggishness in the sales. New project launches may take a breather in the next quarter as there
has been a significant addition in the last few quarters and the momentum is likely to regain
during the festive season.
1 The regime of low interest rates may
continue for some time and
homebuyers may look to benefit from
the same.
2 New designs and layouts of functional
homes are likely to see light of the day
in new projects that may be launched
later during the year.
3 Prices are likely to revise upwards in
the medium-to-long term.
4 Affordable and mid segment to
remain in focus as buyers may remain
price sensitive even though the
certainty of employment may improve
in the future.
5 The demand is going to be led by
end-users with the emergence of new
markets in the tier II & III cities.
10 | Residential Market Viewpoints PAN India Q1 2021About ANAROCK ANAROCK is India’s leading independent real estate services company with a presence across India and the Middle East. The Chairman, Mr. Anuj Puri, is a highly respected industry veteran and India’s most prominent real estate thought leader. The Company has diversified interests across the real estate lifecycle and deploys its proprietary technology platform to accelerate marketing and sales. ANAROCK’s services include Residential Broking & Technology, Retail (in partnership with Vindico), Commercial, Investment Banking, Hospitality (via HVS ANAROCK), Land Services, Industrial and Logistics (in partnership with Binswanger), Investment Management, Research, Strategic Advisory & Valuations, Project Management Services (in partnership with Mace) and Apartment Management Services (acquisition of ApnaComplex). The Company has a unique business model, which is an amalgamation of traditional product sales supported by a modern technology platform with automated analytical and reporting tools. This offers timely solutions to its clients, while delivering financially favourable and efficient results. ANAROCK has a team of over 1800 certified and experienced real estate professionals who operate across all major Indian (Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Ahmedabad, NCR – Delhi, Gurugram, Noida, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Lucknow) and Middle East markets. ANAROCK has successfully completed over 400 exclusive residential project mandates. ANAROCK also manages over 80,000 established channel partners to ensure global business coverage. Our assurance of consistent ethical dealing with clients and partners reflects our motto - Values Over Value. Visit: www.anarock.com For research services, please contact: Prashant Thakur Director & Head of Research prashant.thakur@anarock.com ANAROCK Property Consultants Pvt. Ltd. 1002, 10th Floor, B Wing, ONE BKC, Plot No. C-66, G Block Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 MahaRERA Registration No. A51900000108 available at http://maharera.mahaonline.gov.in © 2021 ANAROCK Property Consultants Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. All information in this report is provided solely for internal circulation and reference purposes. ANAROCK makes no statement, representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, reliability or timeliness of the information provided. No part of this report may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods.
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