President Trump And America's 2020 Presidential Election: An Analytical Framework - March 6, 2019

President Trump
          And America’s 2020
             Presidential
             Election: An
              Analytical
             Framework
                                    March 6, 2019

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC

Trump 2020 Meets Trump 2016
___________________________________________________________
 Trump 2020 Is A Stronger Candidate Than Trump 2016…
 • Looking purely at Trump’s personal standing in 2016 vs. 2020, he is no worse for wear,
   with the greatest change in his ratings coming from the consolidation of support among
   Republicans after two years of providing wins for his GOP base (e.g., deregulation,
   conservative judges) and currently having a strong economy and jobs market

   …But Trump 2016 Was A Weak Candidate (Who Happened To Face
   Another Weak Candidate)
  • Trump vs. Clinton 2016 matchup
    had the two most unfavorable
    candidates in a 60-year span
  • According to the 2016 exit polls, 18
    percent of voters who had an
    unfavorable view of both Clinton
    and Trump voted for Trump by a 17-
    point margin – those margins were
    even higher in Pennsylvania,
    Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida
  • Trump was the “change” candidate,
    winning voters who wanted change
    by a 68-point margin
  • Still, Trump only garnered 46.1
    percent of the popular vote

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                           1

Trump’s Base Not Enough To Win
___________________________________________________________
 Trump Is A Strong Weak Incumbent Heading Into 2020 Election
 • Trump’s political base of
   support – “America First”
   nationalists, rural farmers,
   and evangelical Christians
   – was necessary but
   insufficient to win in 2016 –
   will still be insufficient to
   win in 2020
 • Trump’s loyal base of
   support is around 30
   percent of voters, while an
   even larger base of
   opposition is around 45
   percent of voters
 • Trump’s approval ratings
   remain historically low and
   in narrow range, with most
   Americans firmly set in their
   convictions of the president
 • Trump’s low approval
   ratings a function of
   America’s political divide –
   he remains the most
   popular politician among
   GOP electorate – little
   chance of not running for
   reelection or facing serious
   primary challenger

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                              2

Race For Independents
___________________________________________________________
 Trump Won Independents In 2016…
 •   Trump won Independents by four points nationally, despite having a 32 percent
     favorability rating among them – key was that Clinton just had similarly low 33 percent
     favorability rating

 ...But There Are Danger Signs For Him After 2018 Midterms
 •   After four years in office, Trump is unlikely to be able to carry the mantle of “change”
     among true Independents or dissatisfied voters
 •   Trump’s approval rating among Independents in first two years averaged 35 percent,
     but Democrats won them by 12 points nationally in the midterm elections
 •   According to 2018 exit polls, 10 percent of voters disapproving of both Democrats and
     Republicans voted for Democrats by a one-point margin

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                               3

The Electoral College Outlook
___________________________________________________________
In 2016, Trump won the electoral college 306 to 232. In the race to 270 in 2020,
Democrats start with a 232 to 220 edge, with 86 electoral votes rated as toss-ups

The Northern Blue Wall – 46 Electoral Votes (PA, MI, WI)
•   The three historically Democratic states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin –
    were the biggest upsets in 2016 and will likely be biggest determinants of who wins in
    2020
•   The midterms and current 2020 polling in all three states show Trump is in danger of
    losing these states that he won by less than one percent in 2016
Florida and the Sunbelt – 109 Electoral Votes (FL, NC, GA, TX, AZ)
•   Florida continues to be a perennial swing state, with Arizona turning into a toss-up after
    electing Democratic senator in 2018 for first time in 30 years
•   If Independents swing against Trump and the Democratic base turns out in large
    numbers, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas could come into play too

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                                4

Most Critical Election Variable
___________________________________________________________
Biggest Variable To Watch: Defining Democratic Nominee
 •   Reelections are partially a
     referendum on the
     president: Incumbent
     approval number often
     matches the popular vote
     share they receive in
     reelection – sub-40
     approval rating gives
     incumbents little chance
     even if they have a higher
     favorability rating than the
     challenger (e.g., 1980
     election)
 •   Reelections are also
     choices, where an
     incumbent can work to
     define an opponent as
     unacceptable even if there
     is an openness for change
     (e.g., 2004 election)

 •   Trump’s current standing is somewhere in between Carter and W. Bush: For Trump to win
     in 2020, he needs to run against an opponent who has even worse favorability ratings,
     particularly among Independents
 •   If the race is framed more as a referendum on Trump, he likely loses, but if he can
     sufficiently make the election a choice – similar to 2016 – there is an avenue for making
     the Democratic alternative unacceptable – Trump’s acumen for defining his opponents
     cannot be underestimated
 •   Potential opponents like Joe Biden pose the greatest threat to Trump as he is largely
     defined and acceptable among the general electorate – bigger wildcards and opportunities
     for Trump are from the relative unknown Democratic candidates

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                                5

Other Key Election Variables
___________________________________________________________
Given the inelastic nature of Trump’s approval ratings, there are few variables that
have affected the standing of the president. Yet, there’s always a possibility future
variables can have a meaningful impact. These include the following:

The Economy

•   Despite strong economic growth and record employment levels in his first two years in
    office, Trump’s approval rating never exceeded 45 percent in the Gallup polls. Few are
    expecting such economic growth to continue in 2019 or 2020, with greater downside risk
    to the economic and employment trajectory. Negative economic trajectories or
    sentiments have quickly eroded political support in past (e.g., H.W. Bush and Carter),
    though Trump’s base will likely give him benefit of the doubt.

The Investigations

•   Unless a truly bombshell revelation of direct collusion between Trump and the Russians
    hits, the Mueller investigation will continue to be an issue viewed through partisan lens,
    unlikely to sway voters one way or the other. The risk for Trump is overreach in trying to
    impede other federal and state investigations. The risk for Democrats is overreach in
    House investigations or impeachment proceedings that could be viewed as “presidential
    harassment.”

The Trump-Pelosi Dynamic

•   Trump saw declining approval ratings among Independents when he shut down the
    government over border wall funding. Though his approval numbers quickly recovered
    after government reopened, the president lost his first battle with the new House
    speaker. Trump’s battles with Pelosi will continue as even bipartisan initiatives fail to gain
    momentum.

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                                    6

The Democratic Field
___________________________________________________________
Crowded Democratic Field Creates Uncertainty
 •   In crowded field, plurality rules in early primary and caucus states – contenders will need
     to thrive in a certain lane or cobble together a coalition among the Democratic electorate
     (e.g., progressives, Democratic establishment, moderates, minorities, millennials)
 •   At this point in previous election cycles, eventual Democratic primary winners were
     polling low – George McGovern at 5.0 percent, Jimmy Carter at 1.0 percent, Michael
     Dukakis at 7.5 percent, and Bill Clinton at 1.7 percent

 •   As Democrats move leftward, primary process will set progressive policy agenda for
     potential 2020 Democratic administration (e.g., Medicare For All, Green New Deal, Break
     Up Big Tech, Wealth Tax)
 •   Electability will trump ideological purity tests, as top priority among Democrats is beating
     Trump, but risk of moving too far left for general electorate remains
 •   While not likeliest outcome, given size of the field and frontloading of primaries, there’s
     increased risk of brokered Democratic convention – but Democratic nominee does not
     need to win 50 percent of the primary votes to win the nomination

© 2019 Beacon Policy Advisors LLC                                                                   7