PRAGUE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS
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2 Macroeconomic overview Q1 |Czech Republic Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International The Czech Republic remained consumer spending is also in a state of emergency during expected to lead the recovery, the entire first quarter of 2021. thanks to the accumulated This condition was ended in savings amongst the mid-April and lasted a total of population. 189 days. Despite some progress of distributing the What could be surprising, vaccine to the population, it is despite reported closures of still quite slow in comparison hundreds of restaurants and with other countries in Europe. even several retail brands and As the count of new confirmed chains, is that the cases of COVID decreases, the unemployment rate has whole country looks forward to remained at similar levels loosening the measures. There recorded last year, reaching is however a long road back to 4.2% at the end of March 2021. normality and the government, This represents approximately both current and future (which 307,000 jobless individuals in will be elected in autumn), the country. This rate is must avoid the mistakes made expected to remain for some last year. time during 2021 and even decrease further forward in As we could expect, the 2022, once the economy can prolonged state of emergency operate without limitations. affected the forecasts for GDP. In general, we are still One big question mark still expecting a rebound in H2 hangs over inflation. There 2021 from the current were several scenarios warning slowdown and through 2022. about the inevitability of According to Oxford increasing consumer prices Economics, the forecasted however, many economists growth for this year is 3.3%. and institutions are now Industry and exports are still forecasting a much more the main economic engines, conservative outlook for Czech even with several bottlenecks Republic, ranging from 2.0% to in supply chains that can limit 2.5% in 2021. their outputs. By the time shops re-open, strong Gross domestic product 8,0 (%) 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 -2,0 -4,0 -6,0 -8,0 2018 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 Czech Republic Czech Republic predictions Eurozone Eurozone predictions Sources: Colliers International, Oxford Economics
3 Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International Q1 |Czech Republic Prague office market New supply and vacancy Both projects were refurbishments of older The first quarter of the year properties. Hybernská 1, can sometimes be a little located in the city centre near overlooked, especially after náměstí Republiky, added traditionally strong fourth 1,500 sq m and Olbrachtova 5, quarters. But in 2021, when in Prague 4, added 2,000 sq m. everyone in the Czech Republic With the increasing age of a is hoping for some large part of the stock, we may improvement either in well see many landlords business or in life itself, the consider refurbishment or situation on the Prague office even change of use, as a market has broken from reaction to the city’s housing tradition. crisis. The current modern office stock in Prague In the first quarter of 2021, just decreased slightly to 3.69 two developments were million sq m, due to the completed and added a total of exclusion of several buildings 3,500 sq m to the market. This which were no longer offered represents one of the lowest for commercial leasing. levels in the market’s history. Top 3 Transactions Tenant Property Transaction of Q1 2021 Novartis Gemini Renegotiation New Flex Centre BB Centrum B New lease Sources: Prague Research Forum, Colliers International Sweco Hydroprojekt Táborská 31 Renegotiation
4 Q1 |Czech Republic Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International Modern office stock & Occupied Stock Vacant Stock vacancy in Prague districts 1 000 000 (sq m) 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Prague 6 Prague 1 Prague 2 Prague 3 Prague 4 Prague 5 Prague 7 Prague 8 Prague 9 Prague 10 Sources: Prague Research Forum, Colliers International Vacancy rate development Prague City Centre Inner City Outer City 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Sources: Prague Research Forum, Colliers International Gross take-up (sq m) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Sources: Prague Research Forum, 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Colliers International
5 The expected level of supply totalled 45,200 sq m in Q1. Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International Q1 |Czech Republic for the remainder of 2021 is With lower levels of expected just 65,800 sq m, from which supply, we recommend that over 55% is already pre-leased. tenants act earlier to secure Next year looks similar, with their desired office space, 78,300 sq m of space under particularly within new active construction and due for projects. completion in 2022. On the more optimistic side, many The biggest transaction of the projects have entered quarter was, without a doubt, construction phases in recent the renegotiation of Novartis in months, including the long Gemini B in Prague 4, with a awaited Masaryčka by Penta, size of 14,300 sq m. Among the with approximately 25,000 sq other major deals of the m, and PORT 7 by Skanska with quarter, we include a new lease 30,600 sq m. Both projects are of flex-office centre in BB scheduled for delivery in 2023. Centrum B in Prague 4 (3,300 Furthermore, the market has sq m), the renegotiation of also recorded a decent Sweco Hydroprojekt in pipeline, with numerous Táborská 31 in Prague 4 (2,900 projects waiting to secure a sq m) and the expansion of sufficient pre-lease in order to Livesport in Aspira Business proceed with construction or, Centre in Prague 5 (2,200 sq as a condition of financing. m). As for current vacancy, we are Although sub-leases have experiencing a slow, but attracted a lot of attention on increasing trend. By the end of the market recently, they only Q1 2021, approximately 7.6% contributed to Q1 take-up with of modern offices in Prague a 4% share, or 3,600 sq m in were vacant, representing total. But to remain objective, 280,600 sq m. This represent several units that were an increase of 60 basis points available for sub-lease, were quarter-on-quarter and 220 re-claimed by the respective bps year-on-year. In addition to landlords and leased directly. this, the sublease market is still quite strong and offers a Rents and incentives further 75,500 sq m of space for a variety of conditions, Although vacancy is rising including below market slightly, demand is still solid standard prices and contract and occupiers who are assignments. currently looking for new offices have a wider range of Demand choices. Thanks to this fact, landlords are offering higher Take-up in Q1 is sometimes fit-out contributions and overshadowed by strong slightly longer rent-free demand at the end of the year, periods, than we were but in the current quarter, the recording in 2019. However, numbers are a bit more reality strongly differs by optimistic. Gross take-up developer or property accounted for 90,200 sq m, an condition. Prime headline rents increase year-on-year of 30%. in the city centre remained at Demand is still strongly driven the previous range of €22.00 to by renegotiations, as they €22.50. Rents for the best represent share of 46% on the inner-city offices range gross figure. Pre-leasing activity between €15.50 and €17.00 accounted for an 11% share on and prime office space in outer gross take-up. city locations can be leased Net demand, calculated from monthly for between €13.50 newly leased space, and €15.00 per sq m. expansions and pre-leases
6 Key market figures Q1 |Czech Republic Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International Office Stock (sq m) Vacancy Rate 3.69 mln 6.7% Q1 Gross Demand (sq m) Prime Rent 90,200 €22.50 Q1 Supply (sq m) Under Construction (sq m) 3,500 199,700 Outlook One promising fact is that some of the largest, or most As the government plans for significant projects, which have lifting the restrictions are in been anticipated for years, sight, and public testing and have entered construction vaccination processes are phases, or are very close to it. already under way, we believe Therefore, the pipeline new that we will soon get at least supply for 2023 and beyond some idea about the condition could well be above average and also about the intentions again. A question mark of companies active on the however still hangs over the Prague office market. It is new building law and if it will certain that an acceleration of really positively impact the activity on the market will not permitting process, as a be immediate. We still expect number of the proposed the vacancy rate to rise by projects have been stuck in this additional basis points, but it process for years. will be inevitably softened by low supply at some point in near future.
For more information Office Agency Research & Forecasting Petr Žalský Josef Stanko +420 601 056 858 +420 728 175 024 petr.zalsky@colliers.com josef.stanko@colliers.com Managing Partner Tewfik Sabongui +420 777 150 669 tewfik.sabongui@colliers.com This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is Na Příkopě 859/22 Slovanský dům B/C given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report and they must not be relied on for investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell 110 00 Praha 1 property. ( May 2021 ) © 2021 Colliers International. Colliers International is the licensed trading name of Colliers International Property Advisers UK LLP which is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC385143. Our registered office is at 50 George Street, London W1U 7GA.
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