ORGANIZATIONAL PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WORKSHOP - Sean O'Donoghue 14 - 15 MARCH 2019
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ORGANIZATIONAL PLANNING FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE WORKSHOP
14 - 15 MARCH 2019
Sean O’Donoghue
Weather and climate Climate change causes and global impacts
Weather versus Climate
Weather describes
current and near-term
conditions
Climate describes
weather patterns over a
longer term
“Weather is what you get; climate is what you expect.”
Human or natural causes of climate change?
National Climate Assessment, 2014
Models can reproduce the climate with and without added CO2
How is the climate system affected? Source: Commonwealth of Australia
Measuring climate change
National Climate Assessment, 2014
These indicators are embedded into global climate models
6
6
Temperature and Precipitation Increase in hot days and heatwaves • Potential impacts: human health, crops, species and ecosystems (e.g. forest fires) Droughts, floods and extreme rainfall • Potential impacts: Landslides, crops destroyed, dams affected
Global sea levels are increasing
Source: IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
• Global sea level rose by 0.19 meters over the period 1901 to 2010.
• The rate of sea level rise has increased over the 20th century:
- 1.7 mm/year between 1901 and 2010
- 2.0 mm/year between 1971 and 2010
- 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010
Storm surge and sea level rise
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide
water generated by a storm, over and
above the normal astronomical tides
and wave conditions
Storm tide is the water level rise due
to the combination of storm surge and
the astronomical tide
Higher sea levels will allow storm surges from storms of similar strength to reach further inland and
cause more destruction to life and property.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
http://www.stormsurge.noaa.gov/overview_causes.html
Climate change means more extremes
How can you be involved?
Join the UCCRN at www.uccrn.org/join
• ARC3 Series – Author, reviewer, disseminator, teacher, presenter
• Case Study Docking Station – contribute a Case Study
• UCCRN Regional Hubs
• City Projects
15• Implemented through several research programmes
• 4 South African Research Chairs Initiative Chairs
• Leveraging the partnership to grow research
• Establishment of a centre of biodiversity and global
change - CoP
• Urban Climate Change Research Network – Durban
Knowledge Hub
GEC – P1 GEC – P2
CRR – P2
GEC – P3
CoP
2012 2017 EPIC
2013 2014 2015 2016
Miji Bora
IPCC SROCC
BRICS
CRR – P1 SHEFSClimate change local impacts
Possible solutionsHEAT WAVE
Landsat_February TODAY
Urban Design Climate Workshop | Durban | 15-20 February 2019Durban temperature projections
Baseline (1980-2004) Low-estimate (10th percentile) High-estimate (90th percentile)
2020s + 0.7 °C + 1.9 °C
2050s + 1.3 °C + 3.5 °C
2080s + 2 °C + 5.8 °CDurban precipitation projections
Baseline (1980-2004) Low-estimate (10th percentile) High-estimate (90th percentile)
2020s -5% +6%
2050s -8% +6%
2080s - 11 % +8%Durban sea level rise projections
Baseline (1980-2004) Low-estimate (10th percentile) High-estimate (90th percentile)
2020s + 4cm + 18 cm
2050s + 14 cm + 58 cm
2080s + 20 cm + 118 cmClimate Projections and RiskCities
Assessment – C40 Cities
Climate
Durban Projections – C40
DurbanClimate Projections and Risk Assessment – C40 Cities Durban
REGIONAL
HEAT
2019
(ABOVE 31°C)REGIONAL
HEAT
2050
(BUSINESS AS USUAL/ABOVE 31°C)REGIONAL
HEAT
2050
(BEST CASE SCENARIO)EPW
HYBRID PLAN UTCI – Urban Thermal Comfort Index 2050
21 february h.12.00
Urban Design Climate Workshop | Durban | 15-20 February 2019RETAIL MALL
1
1. MULTIMODAL HUB
2. MIXED USE
3. PV PANELS
4. BUILDING GREENING
5. ITC INFRASTRUCTURE
6. INFORMAL TRADERS AREA
7. PEDESTRIAN EAST-WEST
CONNECTIONS
8. WATER COLLECTIONWater Strategies (Planned and Potential Projects)
1. Relocate Transit Camp / Restore Wetland
3. Develop Water Retention Sites 4. CBD Green Infrastructure Design 6. Canal System Upgrades (opportunities
Ecosystem Services Upstream of CBD Interventions to improve design and operation)
(Attenuation Facilities Already in • Require building parcels to • Sluice gates to control illicit
2. Isipingo Inlet Weir Restoration (Restore a Planning) implement their own stormwater discharges from industry
consistent flow of clean water to canals • Purpose is to capture water and management measures upstream.
and downstream estuary ecosystem) allow for slow release including rooftop and site • Closing gates and taking
• When possible, the sites will be rainwater collection, detention, advantage of the head;
• There is a gabion weir on the river utilized for some social benefits and/or reuse allowing more flow into the
that is supposed to route water (e.g. park) • Municipality to make use of 9 estuary To be further studied)
into the inlet under baseline • Opportunity for commercial ha area freed up within CBD for • Modifying slope to increase
conditions. Under flood mixed use development and rain gardens / infiltration zones hydraulic gradient towards the
high-density housing estuary (To be further studied)
conditions, the water flows over
• Central bowl can be • New canal running through the
the river into the Mbokodweni developed; surrounded by site with the container depot
River. The challenge is that the roads • Removal of invasive water
river changes flow and continues • Desire for water from detention plants, drying, and use for
to flow on a different path into basins to gravity flow to canals animal feed.
(12 meter elevation
the Mbokodweni River. Invasive
difference?) 7. Restoration of a healthy estuary
water plants are a factor causing Ecosystem
the flow into the Mbokodweni
River.Outcome: Integrated and effective climate change response
STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT &
GOVERNANCE IMPLEMENTATION RESEARCH
Council/ EXCO/ standing
political committees: National Policy: NDP, Climate Bill
Local Policy: IDP, SDF, city strategy
Strategic Management EM Climate Change
DCCS: to be reviewed by 2020
Forum: administrative Committee: political
oversight of DCCS oversight of DCCS
implementation implementation Project implementation:
Municipal Adaptation Plans, C40 DCCS Integrated Implementation
Chair: DCCS TTT
Deadline 2020, Sihlanzimvelo, Plan: to be developed by mid 2019
DCCS Technical Task Team: dashboard Climate Resilience
DMAF review and coordination of implementation Implementation Plan, METIS, M&E Framework and reporting
of DCCS between line functions; reporting to GHG reporting etc. tool: to be developed by mid 2019
EM CCC A number of these projects have
their own steering committees.
DCCS Sub-Committee: implementation of DCCS
through DCCS dashboard; reporting to DCCS TTT Research
DCCS Secretariat: support for the TTT and sub-
committee, management of M&E and Research, • To international platforms to advise IPCC global stock take
liaison with political committee secretariat and • To national platform to fulfil nationally determined
feedback to DMAF contributions within UNFCCC
• Into municipal platforms to inform SDBIP/ Scorecard
Service provider: support for DCCS Secretariat
and development of implementation planDevelopment of the fully integrated
DCCS Implementation Plans
• Full tender appointment (36 month contract)
o Develop a fully integrated mitigation and adaptation set of implementation
plans for the DCCS.
o Develop monitoring and evaluation framework and reporting tool for the
DCCS.
o Complete first full review of the DCCS to be inline with Paris Agreement and
Climate Change Bill.
o Incorporate C40 Deadline 2020 project outcomes into the DCCS review (to
put Durban onto a 1.5°C pathway.
o Facilitate coordination between municipal line functions.
o Mainstreaming and implementation of the DCCS impmementation plan.Legal Mandate • Existing: – Paris Climate Agreement – adaptation and mitigation – National Climate Change Response Policy – Disaster Management Amendment Act (2015) • Forthcoming: – Climate Change Bill (within NEMA) • Carbon tax • Spatial planning framework opportunities?
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