MORE THAN "MEATS" THE EYE - IRI Fresh Foods Panel Discussion The Numbers, Impact and Opportunity in Weathering the Storm of Competition for the ...
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IRI Fresh Foods Panel Discussion MORE THAN “MEATS” THE EYE The Numbers, Impact and Opportunity in Weathering the Storm of Competition for the Meat Case March 2, 2022
Today’s Presenters & Panel
Objective: Actionable Ideas to Capitalize on Winning the Consumer & Weathering the Competitive Storm
Jonna Parker John Crowder Heather DeLuca
IRI JBS Associated Wholesale
Principal / Team Lead, Head of Marketing, Grocers
Fresh Foods Beef VP, Meat & Seafood
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Four Themes,
More Meals at Home Accelerated Less Trips, But More Missions
During 2020,
New Ways of Shopping
Expect to Have Fierce Competition for Fresh
Long-Lasting
Impact
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Let’s Face It, the Last Two
Years’ Storm Brought Tailwinds
for the Meat Industry
average meals made in the home
January 2022 – was 77%+ for 26 periods
2021 Sales – flat from 2020
and +45% more than 2016
is spent across the store when meat is in
the basket – 118% higher than when not
of U.S. households bought meat in 2021
and made 50.4 trips annually to buy meat
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Meat Grew By Leveraging
its Super Power… Assortment
In 2021, Americans bought an average
of 42 different cuts or kinds in the
meat department
Compared to pre-pandemic, Americans buy
more meat, more often and in more varieties.
Bacon had the highest share of shoppers’
wallets but only at 23% of all meat spend.
Go-to common cuts represent a lower share
of sales in 2021, with declining sales growth:
• Ground Beef (-4.6%, flat volume)
• Pork Loin (-4.3%, volume –9.5%)
• Chicken Breast (-1.7%, volume -4.9%)
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Meat Growth Driven by Key Trends – Strengthened in 2021
Premium Exploration Convenience Wellness
Bacon* Lamb Beef Ingredient Cuts Organic
(2.4%, -8.4%) (9.4%, 1.2%) (5.6%, -0.7%) (3.3%, 2.0%)
Beef Loin* Beef Offal Cooking Meal Kits Antibiotic Free
(4.0%, -8.6%) (18.8%, 16.6%) (37.6%, 32.5%) (1.3%, -4.4%)
Prime Prepared Entrees
(22.4%, 11.4%) (11.7%, 6.3%)
Wagyu Chicken
(78.8%, 188.2%) Ingredient Cuts
Beef Ribs (14.8%, 0.4%)
(16.7%, 3.4%)
*highest absolute
$ growth vs. YA
In Fresh Meat, UPC / Pre-Packaged Meat Gained 1% Share Point, Driven by Third-Party Brands
In Processed Meat, Private Label Fared Well (3.8%, -3.5%)
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / (Dollar % Change, Volume % Change)
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
While All are Increasing Meat Spending,
More Americans Are HEAVY Meat Buyers Than Ever Before
• 4.2MM more households spent $600+/year in in 2021 and drove
$22.7 B total - $7.5B more in 2021 than in 2020
• Heavy Meat Shoppers are Heavy Grocery Food Buyers in general,
with meat as the trip anchor
– $97.86 vs. $50.86 when meat is not in the basket
– 40 more grocery store trips annually than the average American HH
– Spend $5,944 annually on all food and beverages – 78% more than
the average shopper
• Heavy Meat Buyers are valuable and traditional family demographics:
– Head of Household born between 1946-1980 (Gen X or Boomers)
– 3 to 5+ people in the home, 2x more likely to have children ages 12+
– HH income over $70k and be either White or African American
• Multiple Departments win when Meat is in the Heavy Buyers’ basket as
they seek meal solutions:
– Dairy Natural / Processed Cheese, Spaghetti Sauce, Frozen
Vegetables, Frozen Potatoes, Gravy and Sauce Mixes, Frozen
Processed Poultry, and Shelf-Stable Vegetables
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Don’t Forget About Light Buyers Though
There are 63M Light (>$300 annually) Meat Buying U.S. Households vs. Only 23M Heavy ($600+) Buyers
Light Buyers Are Important Too, Amounting to $9B for the Department
• Frequency is the difference, with 14 trips annually to buy meat
vs. 51 for Heavy buyers
• $73 when meat is in the basket - double than without meat – so still
more engaged in the store
• Increased their spending in Fresh Meat in the past year, but in Chicken
and Turkey - declined in Beef
• Demographics very different than Heavy Meat Buyers
– 1 to 2 person households, less likely to have children present
– Gen Z and Younger Millennials (born before 1990)
Some Younger Millennials Are Already Heavy Meat Buyers
and More Valuable Than Their Predecessors
• Heavy Young Millennials spend $19.86 vs. Heavy Gen X at $19.52
• 3 less trips per year, but spend more when they do ($104.52 vs. $102.80)
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
All in All, Annual Dollar and Volume (lb) Sales for Meat
the Past Five Department - Multi-Outlet
Years Have $82.4B $82.3B
Shown $67.2B $68.B $69.2B
Tremendous
Growth for Meat
3% 21.8B 20.3B
19.6B 19.6B 19.6B
More Pounds and
22%
More Dollars
than in 2017
Volume Sales Dollar Sales
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Forecasted: a Storm of Change
As 2022 Dawns, Many Headwinds Are Brewing:
Inflation
Channel Shifting
Digital Divide
A New Generation
Selling Solutions, Not Silos
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10January 2022: Shoppers Are
Concerned About Prices, Out of Stocks
of shoppers are concerned
about food cost inflation
Perceive the cost of groceries and household
items to be higher now, vs. last year
Cited beef and pork as noticeably higher
prices – more than any other grocery item
(Chicken / Turkey was #3 – 66%)
Said they will make no shopping changes
due to higher prices – but for how long?
Source: IRI Shopper Survey January 2022
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11In Actuality, Beef and Pork Are Not the Highest Increases in the Store –
Fresh Poultry and Processed Meat Do Not Even Make the Top 10
Top 25 Edible Categories, Price per Volume % Change vs. YA / Latest 12 WE 01-23-2022
30.7%
23.0% 22.7%
20.8% 20.4%
18.8% 18.6%
17.7% 17.4% 17.3%
16.5% 16.2%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9% 14.9%
14.2% 13.9% 13.6% 13.4%
13.3% 13.2% 13.1% 13.0% 12.6%
Carbonated
Baby Food
Cracker Kits
Bacon
Frozen Poultry
Poultry
Pork
Meat Cheese
Center Store
Fresh Fin Fish
Beef
Frozen Processed
Italian Sauce
Fresh Produce Party
Breakfast Sausage
Fresh Tropical &
Processed Chicken
Beverages
Frozen Meat
Shortening & Oil
Deli Trays
SS Spaghetti /
Powdered Milk
Croissants
FZ Meat / Poultry /
Perimeter Pastry /
Trays & Gifts
Specialty Fruit
Fresh Citrus Fruit
Salty Snacks
Dry Fruit Snacks
Sports Drinks
Danish/Coffee Cakes
Seafood Alternatives
*only includes items with >$10M in Sales Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, MULO, 12 weeks ending 01-23-2022
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12When Prices Started to Rise, Meat Promotions Were Cut Back,
But Discounts Are Still Happening, Just Off Higher Base Prices
Total U.S., Multi-Outlet Meat Department 12 Month Period Ending January 2022
16.0% 3.00
14.1% 14.4%
14.0%
1.88 12.2% 2.00
11.6% 11.7%
12.0%
10.1% 1.00
10.0% 0.82
0.39 0.45
8.0% 0.07 0.00
6.8% -0.26
6.2% -0.48
6.0% -0.90 -1.00
-1.28 4.2% 4.5%
4.0% 3.1% 2.8%
-2.01 -1.96 -2.00
2.0% -2.41
-3.00
0.0%
-3.45
-2.0% -0.8% -4.00
4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 4 Weeks
Ending 02- Ending 03- Ending 04- Ending 05- Ending 06- Ending 07- Ending 08- Ending 09- Ending 10- Ending 10- Ending 11- Ending 12- Ending 01-
21-21 21-21 18-21 16-21 13-21 11-21 08-21 05-21 03-21 31-21 28-21 26-21 23-22
Price per Volume % Change vs YA Weighted Average % Price Reduction Change vs YA
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 1-23-22
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13Meats With the Highest Price Increase Didn’t All Experience Volume Declines;
Shoppers’ Seeking Solutions and Priorities Matter Sometimes More than Price
Meat Subcategories with Greater than $100M Sales and +10% Higher Price Per Pound vs YA
16.7%
14.7%
13.1%
10.5%
4.0% 3.4% 3.1%
1.5% 2.4%
0.4% 0.9%
-1.1% -1.8%
-7.3%
-8.4% -8.4%
-9.8%
-11.1%
-12.5%
-20.0%
CHICKEN
CHICKEN BEEF TURKEY
BEEF RIBEYE INGREDIENT BEEF LOIN BEEF RIBS LAMB LOIN PORK RIBS BACON
WINGS SIRLOIN BREAST
CUTS
Dollar Sales % Change vs YA 1.5% 13.1% 14.7% 4.0% 16.7% 10.5% 0.9% 2.4% 3.1% -11.1%
Volume Sales % Change vs YA -12.5% -1.1% 0.4% -8.4% 3.4% -1.8% -9.8% -8.4% -7.3% -20.0%
Price per Volume % Change vs YA 16.1% 14.4% 14.3% 13.6% 12.9% 12.5% 11.9% 11.8% 11.2% 11.1%
Meat Department average price change 2021 is 7%
Dollar Sales % Change vs YA Volume Sales % Change vs YA
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 1-23-22
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Meat Marketing Can
Be More Than Price The Dance
Between
Affordability and
Consumers will spend on more
expensive items if they: Premiumization
• provide a value to their families (e.g., is Important
larger size to feed many)
to Monitor
• reward themselves or impress others
• trust the product attributes or brand
• perceive it is cheaper than Shoppers Seek
alternatives in store or out-of-the- MEALS, Not
home
Just MEATS
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15Throughout the Store, There Are More
Choices Than Ever in Meat and Making Meals
% Meat Buying HHs Also Buying Dollar Sales % Change vs. YA
Cooking Meal Kits Seafood Dept. Frozen Meat Frozen Poultry
6.9 33.6 57.6 6.7 56.4 -1.1 47.4 -4.8
Deli Prepared Foods
Frozen Proc. Poultry Frozen Seafood Frozen Meals Aisle & Meals Aisle
58.1 13.2 72.9 2.0 93.7 4.3 95.1 23.0
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Meat is a
Part of the
Connections
Across
the Store
Not
Competition The Meat Department Basket with Steak vs. Average Basket
is the Anchor of the Store
as Much as vs.
More than 60% of Meat Department Baskets
Cooperation Include both Fresh and Processed Meat
Items likely to be in the basket with Steak
Items likely to be in the basket with Meat include Fresh Fin Fish, Bacon, Root Veg,
include Frozen Meats, Meals, Deli Prepared Deli Specialty Cheese, Deli Service Lunchmeat,
Meals, Entertaining Options & Deli Cheese, Fresh Cooking Vegetables, Fresh Stone Fruit,
Frozen Fruits & Vegetables, Frozen Snacks Fresh Salads/Leafy Greens
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Baskets with Frozen or Refrigerated Meat
And Then There’s Meat Alternatives: Alternatives Are More Likely to Also Include
Chicken, Turkey and/or Dinner Sausage
% HH
Business in 2021 % HH
Buying
Change
$ Sales
% Change
Buying vs. YA vs. YA
Refrigerated Meat / Poultry 10.8 0.8 8.9
Seafood Alternatives
Frozen Meat / Poultry / 15.4 0.5 -0.4
Seafood Alternatives
Total Meat Alternatives 18.6 0.9 2.8
Total U.S. /
All Outlets
/ Meat 36.9%
Alternative
$ Share
Frozen
RFG/
Fresh
63.1%
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Meat Alternative Buyers Are Meat Buyers
• Households Who Buy Meat Alternatives Are Still Buying Meat
– More adventurous in cuts and kinds than average US household
– Decreasing beef and chicken spending year over year
– Increasing pork, veal, lamb and exotic spending
• 6.5MM First-Time Meat Alt Buyers in 2021 Also Spent $150MM
More than in 2021 on Fresh Meat
– Establishing households and more at-home meal making routines
– New meat alternative buyers are also increasing produce salads
and leafy greens, frozen processed poultry and fresh finfish
• The 7.2MM Retained Meat Alternative Buyers are $3.4B Worth in
Fresh Meat – $1MM More in 2021 than 2020
– A “Light” meat department buyer but increasing spending on
chicken, bacon and frozen processed poultry
– Upped their Fresh Seafood spending $100MM more than last year
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Market Advantage, TUS MULO, Latest 52 WE 12-26-2021 / IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, TUS All Outlets, Latest 52 Weeks Ending 12-26-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19Shoppers are Changing What Meats They Buy –
But, Increasingly, WHERE They Want to Buy Them
Dept-Meat with FW / RW Combined | $ Sales and Share of Channels;
CY 2019-2021, L4W vs. YA / Total U.S. – All Outlets
$42.7B $49.9B $47.5B
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
0.7% 1.9% 2.2%
8.0% 2.5% 7.5% 2.0%
7.4% 1.9%
11.0% 12.3% 12.4%
19.2% 19.1% 20.1%
Total US - Dollar
Total US - Internet
Health and Specialty
44.2% 42.9% 42.3% Discount Grocery
Total US - Club
Mass & Supercenter
Traditional Grocery
2019 2020 2021
**Note: $ share sorted based on 2021, $ share calculated to Total U.S. - All Outlets / Source: Integrated Fresh Panel CY 2019-2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20The Digital Revolution is Changing How We Shop and Get Inspired for Everything,
Including Meat, and Could Mean New Ways to Entice Shoppers Beyond Price
Online Shopping Inspiration
(includes delivery, Inspiration Also Happens
curbside, in-store pick-up) Online – Especially for
Younger Consumers
Online shoppers are more likely to
be younger and more affluent
(e.g., the Light Meat Buyer) 40% of Gen Z and 37%
14% of HHs shopped online the of Millennials have discovered
a new favorite product
last time they bought groceries through social media
31% plan to shop online at least a
little for groceries in the next 4 wks
17% of incomes $100k
While the Majority of Meat Still is Bought in Store, Digital Can Help
Bridge the Divide Between Generations, Create Inspiration and Drive Value Beyond Price
Source: IRI Shopper Survey January 2022 and IRI Media Study, Oct 2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21Shopping for Meat Online is Still Emerging – But Already Vital for Staples
Brick and Mortar Retailer’s Online Point-of-Sale Reveals Cooking Basics Are Popular
Common, Similar to
Chicken is Versatile Cuts price, items
Fare Best where shoppers
Online want to
premium-ize (or
Share of Sales impress) fare
of all online better in-store:
Online In-Store
meat sales
Chicken Breast Beef Loin
currently – 24 17 Pork Ribs
10 points Ground Beef Beef Ribeye
higher than 23 19 Chicken Legs
in-store Ground Turkey Whole Bird Turkey
6 3 Pork Shoulder
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22Who’s
Shopping
is Changing
Generational
Shifts Are
Here
2021 Share Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors / Retirees
of Dollars Total Edible
and Change
vs. 2019 0.6% 25.5% 31.3% 34.2% 8.4%
+0.2 pts. +0.2 pts. +0.5 pts. +0.2 pts. -1.2 pts.
Fresh Meat
0.7% 24.6% 32.3% 34.7% 7.8%
+0.3 pts. -0.9 pts. +1.0 pts. +0.6 pts. -1.0 pts.
Source: IRI Integrated Fresh Panel, All Outlets, L52 WE 12/26/2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors / Retirees
Quick & Easy Easy Dinner Wellness Quick Premium Quality, But
Multicultural Alternatives Family Meals Holiday Cuts Conventional
Ingredient Cuts Organic / ABF Grass-Fed / Wagyu Select Grade
Beef & Pork Ribs Poultry Organic / ABF Turkey Whole / Angus
Offal / Exotic Meat Alternatives Family Packs Ham Conventional Meats
Frozen Meats Meal Kits Ground Protein Beef Ribeye
Ingredient Cuts Chicken Breast
Source: IRi Integrated Shopper Loyalty, Food Outlets, 2021
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24Generational Shifts Also Driving
Less Impact of Price Promotions
Consumers Have Changed;
So Should Our Meat Department Strategies
• The Meat Department Has Less Volume on Promotion Than
Ever Before – and Less Lift
• Younger Consumers are Less Driven to Switch Stores for
Meat than Their Predecessors
– Seniors and Boomers buy more than 31% on a price
discount – and increasing
– Millennials and Gen Z buy less than 28% – and declining
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25As We Shift Past the Circular – Retailers are Creatively Drawing Consumers
in With Different Ways to Spark Excitement and Inspiration with Meat
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26Even Though Ads Are Changing Though – Displays Really Aren’t
These Retailers Are Thought of as “Different” in Meat by Our Industry – Can you Tell Who’s Who?
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27More Than “Meats” The Eye - What Got Us Here Won’t Get Us There
Inflation Pressure is Real- Shoppers Perceiving the Worst
With constantly shifting market dynamics it’s more important than ever to understand
marketing meat is more than price
Preparing for the Next Generation
With triple more households Light than Heavy Meat buyers – engaging younger
consumers in new and different ways is the key to future success
Solutions Not Silos
Cooking fatigue is real. Meet consumers where they are at with solutions to the
meal and occasions to create excitement and engagement for years to come
The Future is Bright
Meat has versatility, relevance, choice and differentiation possible – the true
anchor of the store. How will you stand out to connect differently in 2023?
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28Meet Our Panelists:
DISCUSSION Changing the Meat Industry
TOPICS
Key Learnings
Rays of Sunshine
Weathering
the Storm
Forecast for the John Crowder Heather DeLuca
Period Ahead JBS Associated Wholesale
Head of Marketing, Grocers
Beef VP, Meat & Seafood
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29questions & answers © 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30
thank you
Jonna.Parker@IRIworldwide.com
John.Crowder@jbssa.com
Heather.DeLuca@awginc.com
© 2022 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31be the first to know
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