MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 17-10-22
By Adam Burrowes
The White House
13:30 ET 18:30 BST Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre
Elections Countdown:
❖ 2022 midterm elections: 21 days
❖ 2024 presidential election: 749 days
Midterms
Three key midterm debates are set to take place this evening.
• Republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) will face off against Democrat
challenger Stacey Abrams at 19:00 ET 00:00 BST.
• In Ohio, Democrat Senate candidate Tim Ryan will face Trump-backed JD Vance for
their second live debate at 20:00 ET 01:00 BST.
• In Utah, Senate Mike Lee (D-UT) will debate independent candidate Evan McMullin,
also at 20:00 ET 01:00 BST.
Democrat News
Former President Barack Obama has been drafted in to lend support for frontline Democrat
candidates. He will campaign for Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and gubernatorial
candidate Stacey Abrams on October 28. On the 29th he will head to Wisconsin to support
Senate hopeful Mandela Barnes before finishing in Detroit where he will campaign for
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-IL).
• President Biden will also be on the road. He will head to Pennsylvania on Thursday to
fundraise for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA).
• Biden will then be in Florida in early November to throw his support behind Charlie
Crist, the man challenging Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Pennsylvania
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) is maintaining a slight poll advantage over Trump-backed
celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race but lingering questions over
Fetterman’s health, and the increasingly confident Oz campaign, make the race to close to
call. Fetterman and Oz will have their only public debate next Tuesday.
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• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell clearly sees the Pennsylvania race as a live
contest. His super PAC has funded a new ad calling Fetterman soft on crime and too
liberal for Pennsylvania.
• Washington Post says Fetterman “…continues to work with a speech therapist and
blocks time off nearly every day for a several-mile walk. He appears to have recovered
well from a serious stroke with no obvious long-term effects other than his
acknowledged difficulty understanding spoken language and finding words.”
Georgia
In Georgia, scandal plagued Herschel Walker and incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-
GA) held their first and only televised debate on Friday. Politico and FiveThirtyEight both
consider the Georgia race the most consequential for control of the Senate.
• The debate came amid intense scrutiny over Walker’s private life and the perceived
hypocrisy of his policy position supporting a “no-exception” abortion ban.
• The Hill writes that although Warnock has a slight polling advantage race remains
competitive: “Over the last week, the first batch of polls conducted in Georgia following
allegations that GOP nominee Herschel Walker paid for a woman’s abortion in 2009
showed Sen. Raphael Warnock opening up a slight lead. His performance improved
in four separate polls, and he now holds an average of a 3-percentage point lead over
Walker.”
• Most analysts considered the debate a success for Walker. He backed away from his
rigid position on abortion and conceded that President Biden won the 2020 presidential
election. Crucially, he avoided being embarrassed by Warnock and managed to
successfully link Warnock with President Biden, who is unpopular in Georgia.
• Warnock attacked Walker’s alleged loose relationship with the truth: “He said that he
graduated from college. He didn’t. He said he was valedictorian of his class. He wasn’t.
He said he started a business that doesn’t even exist. And the other night, when I said
he pretended to be a police officer, he presented a badge as if that were proof that he
really is a police officer, and now he wants us to think that he’s a senator.”
• NYT: “Whether this debate changes the direction of the race seems doubtful to me …
though Walker may have reassured some more moderate Republican voters
concerned about whether he could perform on the stage.”
• Bloomberg: “The former football star [Walker] will have given his party hope that he
can overcome a checkered campaign to prevail in the race, which could plausibly
determine control of the Senate.”
• A Democratic pollster told Politico: “There could be a misstep here in trying to disqualify
Walker so much and not to requalify what Warnock has actually done. [Voters] get it.
They understand Walker is the big bad wolf. They like Warnock. But they don’t have
anything really good to say. They don’t know what he’s been doing.”
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A new Des Moines Register Poll has suggested that veteran Republican Senator Chuck
Grassley (R-IA) may be in for his “toughest re-election fight in 40 years.” The poll shows
Grassley with a 3 percentage-point lead (46%-43%) over Democrat candidate Mike Frankin.
• Pollster J. Ann Selzer said: “It says to me that Franken is running a competent
campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley —
previously perceived to be invincible.”
Trump Probe
Former President Donald Trump and the January 6 Committee investigating Trump are both
examining the pros and cons of Trump testifying live in front of the Committee.
• Last week, the Committee voted 9-0 in favour of subpoenaing Trump to provide
documents and testimony under oath in connection with the unrest on Capitol Hill
following the 2020 presidential election.
• NYT reports that the Committee believe panel members “could most likely elicit some
significant developments from Mr. Trump’s testimony.”
• The Hill: “What comes next: The committee should issue the subpoena within the
week. If Trump ignores it, the House of Representatives must vote on whether to make
a criminal referral to the Justice Department, though lawmakers won’t meet again until
the Nov. 8 midterm elections are done.”
• Rep Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said Trump has “…made it clear he has nothing to hide is
what he says, so he should come in on the day we ask him to come in to. If he pushes
off beyond that, we’ll figure out what to do next.”
• Rep Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) explained why deciding to subpoena Trump took so
long: “We've been gathering additional information, and we've gotten new information
even since the July hearing.”
Congressional Business
The House is out
The Senate is out
Committee Schedule -
China
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged that China will prevail against the US in an
increasingly bitter standoff over technology.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BG• XI said on Sunday: “We will focus on national strategic needs, gather strength to carry
out indigenous and leading scientific and technological research, and resolutely win
the battle in key core technologies.”
• Earlier this month, the US Commerce Department unveiled plans to restrict China’s
access to US technology, including the sale of semiconductors.
• Bloomberg: “Those moves were the Biden administration’s most aggressive yet as it
tries to stop China from developing capabilities it sees as threatening. The US is
seeking to ensure that Chinese companies don’t transfer technology to the People’s
Liberation Army, and that chipmakers in China don’t develop the capability to make
advanced semiconductors themselves.”
Poll of the Day
A report from Ipsos and the Pew Research Center has shown that Hispanic voters still tend to
support the Democrat party, but the bloc dynamics of the Hispanic vote is changing as the
population grows and becomes more integrated.
• IPSOS: “Hispanic Americans make up a larger and growing share of the overall
population. Hispanic Americans made up just 5% of the overall U.S. population in
1970. Now, they make up about 19% of the total population. In relative and absolute
numbers, Hispanic Americans are an increasingly large and important slice of the
American population.”
• IPSOS: “Most Hispanic Americans, both registered voters and the total population, feel
that the Democratic party, rather than the Republican party, represents their views and
interests. Though, party loyalty to Democrats is not as unanimous for Hispanic
Americans as it is for Black Americans, who are a stalwart part of the party’s base.”
Chart 1: Hispanic Population in the US Over Time, Millions
Source: IPSOS-Pew
Chart 2: Ethnicity and Party Preference, %
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGSource: IPSOS-Pew
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