Market Navigator October 5, 2021 - Truist
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from the Investment Advisory Group,
Market Navigator October 5, 2021
Securities and insurance products and services –
• Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured
• Are not bank guaranteed
• May lose valueMonthly letter
It had to end at some point—streaks always do. After seven a high profile but fleeting impact to markets. Seasonal market
straight months of gains, the S&P 500 fell in September. Markets trends turn more positive later in the month, and stocks have
also saw the first 5%-plus peak-to-trough pullback since last fall. risen 79% of the time in the fourth quarter since 1950, with an
As we discussed in last month’s Navigator, there had been only average gain of 4%. Notably, with the recent pullback, the S&P
two years since 1980 when markets did not see at least one 5%- 500’s forward P/E, while still elevated, is now at the lowest level
plus intra-year pullback—odds favored seeing at least one gut since May of 2020. Thus, we would stick with the market’s
check before year end. And, the market had many excuses for primary uptrend and use any weakness over the coming weeks to
such a setback, from the uncertainty caused by the potential position for further strength into year end.
default by Evergrande, China’s second-largest property
developer, ongoing supply disruptions, the Federal Reserve’s From a positioning standpoint, our work suggests investors have
(Fed) upcoming reduction of its asset purchase program, to, of gone from being overly optimistic to excessively pessimistic on
course, uncertainty emanating from Washington. the economically-sensitive areas of the market. Accordingly, this
Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT
month we further upgrade our view of small caps to most
Co-Chief Investment Officer
Although challenges remain, we view the September setback attractive following extreme underperformance, 20-year lows in
Chief Market Strategist
as providing a sharp and welcome reset to sentiment, relative valuations, and strong earnings trends. We still hold a
positioning, and valuations that should ultimately lay the modest value style bias, and our favored cyclical sectors remain
foundation for the bull market to extend. Overall, we remain financials and energy—these segments should benefit from the
positive but realistic about the outlook. improved economic environment we foresee and attractive
valuations. The average stock, as proxied by the S&P 500 Equal
“We view the September We remain positive and have high conviction that the global Weight Index, should also benefit as market leadership
setback as providing a economy is on solid footing and moving past the summer continues to broaden out beyond tech.
sharp and welcome growth scare. Indeed, after seeing downward revisions over
reset…that should recent months, our work suggests the economy is now set up for Conversely, we retain a less attractive view of emerging
ultimately lay the positive surprises. Global growth should be aided by peaking markets, given China’s dominance and its underwhelming profit
foundation for the bull COVID-19 trends, the necessary rebuilding of depleted trends, increased government regulation, and slowdown in the
market to extend. inventories, and a continued transition from a stimulus-led property market.
recovery to a good old-fashioned private-sector consumer- and
business-led recovery. In the bond market, we saw a sharp reversal higher in the 10-year
U.S. Treasury yield, confirming our fixed income team’s view that
We remain realistic that the environment prior to September the disconnect between ultra-low yields and our still upbeat
that saw abnormally strong market returns and abnormally economic outlook along with stickier inflation trends was
shallow and infrequent pullbacks is the exception rather than simply too large. Though diminished, we still see relative
the norm. As we move past peak monetary and fiscal opportunity in high yield and leveraged loans. We expect
accommodation, a rising liquidity tide will not lift all boats. leveraged loans, in particular, to provide a good hedge should the
Fed decide to tighten monetary policy more aggressively.
October tends to be a choppy market period, and we expect a
noisy earnings season given supply disruptions and the
continuing debt ceiling drama, though we see the latter as having
Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT
Co-Chief Investment Officer
Chief Market StrategistAsset class view, forecasts & valuation*
Since our last publication of House Views, we have upgraded our view of U.S. small caps from More Attractive to Most Attractive following extreme underperformance,
20-year lows in relative valuations, and strong earnings trends. We also downgraded our U.S. GDP forecast to a range of 6.0% - 6.5%.
Tactical outlook (3-12 months) Long-term capital market assumptions (10 yr)+
Less More Expected Expected
Asset classes Attractive Attractive Equity Return Risk
Equity Global equity 6.75% 16.4%
Fixed income U.S. large cap 6.75% 15.2%
Cash U.S. small cap 7.50% 19.0%
Less More Real estate investment trusts (REITs) 5.25% 18.0%
Global equity Attractive Attractive International developed markets 6.50% 17.8%
U.S. large cap Emerging markets (EM) 7.25% 23.0%
U.S. mid cap Expected Expected
U.S. small cap Fixed income Return Risk
Real estate investment trusts (REITs)*** Intermediate-term municipals 1.50% 3.5%
International developed markets U.S. core taxable bonds 1.25% 3.3%
Emerging markets (EM) U.S. government bonds 0.75% 3.9%
Growth style relative to value U.S. IG corporate bonds 2.00% 6.0%
Less More U.S. HY corporate bonds 4.75% 10.0%
U.S. fixed income Attractive Attractive
U.S. government Key IAG 2021 forecasts
U.S. mortgage-backed securities 2021 global GDP forecast* 5.9%
U.S. investment grade corporate (IG) U.S. GDP range 6.0% - 6.5%
U.S. high yield corporates (HY) Year-end Fed Funds rate range 0.00% - 0.25%
Leveraged loans 10-yr U.S. Treasury yield 1.00% - 2.00%
Duration S&P 500 12-month forward EPS** $214.44
*Bloomberg consensus **FactSet consensus estimates
Global equity market valuation S&P 500 MSCI ACWI MSCI EAFE MSCI EM
Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio 20.1x 17.8x 15.5x 12.7x
10-year average P/E ratio 16.4x 15.1x 14.0x 11.6x
10-year high P/E ratio 23.4x 20.8x 18.2x 17.0x
For domestic use only
10-year low P/E ratio 10.0x 9.6x 9.1x 8.2x
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Keep in mind that investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money.
*In this document, we express our high-level investment strategy views without portfolio context constraints. We aim to represent relative opportunities within each broader asset class. This allows us to signal what we are watching
and where things are changing at the margin within positions that may differ from our asset allocation guidance and Strategy Portfolios. Long-term expected risk, return and correlation statistics are derived from the Portfolio & Market Strategy
team’s capital market assumptions process and are not guaranteed. Secular trends, such as demographics, global debt, inflation, etc. are initially assessed to determine the impact on global markets over the next decade. With an understanding of
the current stage of the business cycle, a combination of quantitative and fundamental techniques is used to further analyze factors that include, but are not limited to: (1) the outlook for asset class return drivers; (2) the probability of sustained
returns; (3) absolute and relative valuation measures; (4) the impact of economic drivers on asset class assumptions and (5) changes in investor sentiment and liquidity. +Capital market assumptions are reviewed and/or modified at least once a
year and are currently as of 2020. ***REITs – Our asset class views can differ at times from our sector strategy as the latter has a much heavier emphasis on price momentum, whereas fundamentals play a greater role in our asset class view.
Investment and insurance products –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueSector Strategy
Our work suggests that investors have gone from being overly optimistic to excessively pessimistic on the economically-sensitive areas of the market.
This has shown up in our Sector Strategy, as technical trends deteriorated in these areas and more growth-oriented areas saw improvement. We took a
more balanced approach and have overweights in cyclical sectors like energy and financials, growth-oriented areas like communications services, and
real estate, which has characteristics of both areas as well as some defensive properties. Last updated = 10/4/2021
Tactical outlook
S&P 500 (3-12M)
Sector Sector
Under- Over-
T F V Comments
weight
weight weight
Energy 2.6% ● + + A strong macro outlook, a positive demand/supply backdrop, as well as attractive valuations and fundamentals should result in
outperformance for the sector near term, despite long-term challenges.
Financials 11.1% ● +
Financials are expected to benefit given the improved economic environment, our expectations for a steeper yield curve, and
lesser concerns for top-line growth, net interest margins, credit quality, and capital adequacy.
Real Estate* 2.6% ● - After lagging the broader market for the last few years, we believe Real Estate will outperform given an acceleration in rents
and a sector that is now more weighted to the digital economy.
Communication Services 11.1% ● + + Improving technical trends and strong expected growth from some of the larger companies within the sector suggests continued
relative outperformance.
Information Technology 27.8% ● + - Relative price trends for tech have improved, which is a positive, though this has not yet been supported by better earnings; this
is one of the main factors we are watching before becoming more constructive. Policy is also a risk.
Industrials 8.5% ● - +
Despite expected strong earnings growth, relative price performance has been under pressure as the outlook for the economic
recovery and anticipated Fed actions becomes less certain.
Health Care 13.2% ● -
After significant underperformance over the last year, relative price trends have been improving. This, along with near-term
uncertainty in the market and reasonable valuations, warrants a neutral outlook.
Materials 2.5% ● - + While strong global growth should benefit the sector and earnings remain positive, the technical trends have weakened. Similar
to the Industrials sector, uncertainty is also weighing on Materials. Thus, we hold a neutral outlook.
Consumer Discretionary 12.3% ● + - Technical trends have improved recently and earnings trends have also shown some modest improvement, although valuation
is relatively unattractive and could be a headwind.
Consumer Staples 5.8% ● -
While valuations seem reasonable, a relatively weak growth outlook for the sector and poor relative price performance warrants
an underweight position.
Utilities 2.5% ● - -
Poor relative performance for this “bond proxy” sector is being driven by weak fundamentals and increasing expectations for
eventual higher interest rates.
For domestic use only. All information supplied or obtained from this page is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or guidance, an offer of or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell a security, or a
recommendation or endorsement by TAS of any security or investment strategy. The information and material presented in this commentary are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment
objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary, and are subject to change without notice. Truist makes no guarantees that information supplied is accurate, complete, or
timely, and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. *Real Estate/REITs – Our asset class views can differ at times from our sector strategy as the latter has a much heavier emphasis on price momentum,
whereas fundamentals play a greater role in our asset class views.
T = Technical. This factor has the greatest focus in our overall methodology with an emphasis on relative price trends
F = Fundamentals. Includes earnings and sales trends, with an emphasis on recent changes to estimates
V = Valuation. Inputs include current/historical and absolute/relative to the overall market
+ Top Tier, -Bottom Tier, Middle Tier; Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet.
Investment and insurance products –
• Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured • Are not bank guaranteed • May lose valuePerformance summaryW E E K LY M A R K E T
M Oas
N I Tof
O RSeptember 30, 2021
Index % Total Return MTD QTD YTD 1 Yr Rates (%) 9/30/21 6/30/21 3/31/21 12/31/20 9/30/20
MSCI ACWI (net) -4.13 -1.05 11.12 27.32 Fed Funds Target 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
S&P 500 -4.65 0.58 15.92 29.87 Libor, 3-Month 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.23
MSCI EAFE (net) -2.90 -0.45 8.35 25.62 T-Bill, 3-Month 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.10
MSCI Emerging Markets (net) -3.97 -8.09 -1.25 18.13
2-Year Treasury 0.28 0.25 0.16 0.11 0.13
Dow Jones Industrials -4.20 -1.46 12.12 24.05
NASDAQ Composite -5.31 -0.38 12.11 29.25 5-Year Treasury 0.99 0.87 0.93 0.36 0.27
S&P United States REITs -5.48 0.97 22.89 36.87 10-Year Treasury 1.52 1.44 1.73 0.91 0.68
Bloomberg Commodity Index 4.97 6.59 29.13 42.10 30-Year Treasury 2.09 2.06 2.42 1.64 1.45
Bloomberg Aggregate -0.87 0.05 -1.55 -0.89 Bloomberg Aggregate (YTW) 1.56 1.50 1.61 1.12 1.18
ICE BofA US High Yield 0.03 0.94 4.67 11.41 Bloomberg Municipal Bond Blend 1-15
0.84 0.76 0.87 0.77 0.96
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Blend 1-15 Year
-0.61 -0.09 0.48 1.81
Year ICE BofA US High Yield 4.08 3.85 4.27 4.24 5.76
ICE BofA Global Government xUS (USD Currencies 9/30/21 6/30/21 3/31/21 12/31/20 9/30/20
-2.85 -1.82 -7.89 -3.92
Unhedged)
ICE BofA Global Government xUS (USD Euro ($/€) 1.16 1.19 1.18 1.22 1.17
-1.14 -0.04 -1.99 -1.26
Hedged) Yen (¥/$) 111.57 110.99 110.50 103.25 105.53
JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified -2.07 -0.70 -1.36 4.34 Pound ($/£) 1.35 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.29
Commodities 9/30/21 6/30/21 3/31/21 12/31/20 9/30/20
Crude Oil (WTI) 75.03 73.47 59.16 48.52 40.22
Gold 1,757 1,772 1,716 1,895 1,896
Volatility 9/30/21 6/30/21 3/31/21 12/31/20 9/30/20
CBOE VIX 23.14 15.83 19.40 22.75 26.37
U.S. style % total returns (S&P indexes) S&P 500 sector % total returns
Month YTD MTD YTD
Value Core Growth Value Core Growth
43.2
-3.29 -4.65 -5.79 Large 15.31 15.92 16.44 29.1 24.4
21.6
10.3 13.5 11.5 15.3 10.5
4.7 9.4 4.2
-3.73 -3.97 -4.26 Mid 21.01 15.52 10.09
-6.6 -2.6 -4.1 -1.8 -5.5 -6.1 -5.8 -6.2
-7.2 -6.2
-1.54 -2.43 -3.45 Small 25.34 20.05 14.75 Comm Cons Disc Cons Energy Financials Health Industrials Info Tech Materials Real Estate Utilities
Services Staples Care
Disclosures – All information is as of title date unless otherwise noted. This document was prepared for clients of Truist Bank for informational purposes only. This material may not be suitable for all investors and may not be redistributed in whole or part.
Neither Truist Financial Corporation, nor any affiliates make any representation or warranties as to the accuracy or merit of this analysis for individual use. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not
guaranteed. Comments and general market related projections are based on information available at the time of writing and believed to be accurate; are for informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the
opinions of the entire firm and may not be relied upon for future investing. The views expressed may change at any time. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instrument,
product or service sponsored or provided by Truist Financial Corporation or its affiliates or agents. Investors are advised to consult with their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past returns are not indicative of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index. ©2020 Truist Financial Corporation. SunTrust®, the SunTrust logo, and Truist are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation. All rights reserved.
Securities and insurance products and services: Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueGlobal economy still on solid footing and should remain strong into 2022
In 2021, the world economy is expected to grow 6%, the fastest pace since 1973. Growth rates are expected to stay strong in 2022, faster than the
average of the previous recovery years of 2010-2013.
IMF world economic growth rate (%)
8% IMF
estimates
6.26% 6.0%
6%
4.4%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Data Source: Trust AIG, IMF, BloombergCOVID-19 trends appear to be peaking and should be followed by firmer
global economic growth
COVID-19 confirmed cases (weekly change in thousands)
US Global Europe
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Feb-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
Data Source: Truist IAG, BloombergMonetary policy tightening gradually commencing as crisis-level support is
no longer needed
Central banks have been tightening this year, and Central banks hiking minus easing
while this has been concentrated mainly in the
emerging markets, those in the developed markets –
such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central 15
Bank, and the Bank of England – are also signaling
less accommodation in terms of quantitative easing.
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
2018 2019 2020 2021
Data Source: Truist IAG, Haver. Series constructed using predominantly countries in the MSCI All Country World Index.China can afford more fiscal stimulus and prevent
Evergrande-related contagion
During the pandemic, China was the only major economy not to use massive monetary stimulus. Thus, it has plenty of room to add liquidity. Accordingly,
we don’t anticipate the troubles from China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande, to turn into a systemic issue.
Debt to GDP ratio % China foreign exchange reserves ($ billion)
Brazil China
Germany Italy China’s reserves
180 4,500 are rising, currently
United Kingdom United States
above $3.2 trillion
4,000
160
3,500
140
3,000
120 2,500
100 2,000
China’s debt to GDP has
more room to grow 1,500
80
1,000
60 500
40 0
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '99 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '15 '17 '19 '21
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, IMF estimates beyond 2020U.S. economic recovery is still relatively early compared to past expansions
The pandemic recession lasted just two months, the shortest U.S. contraction on record. The current recovery just finished its fifth quarter. The average
expansion since 1950 has lasted 22 quarters, though the 2009 to 2019 expansion endured for 42 quarters.
Strength & length of U.S. economic expansions since 1950
160
Strength – Cumulative GDP growth
150
140 Current recovery
= 5 quarters
2009
130 = 42 quarters
120
110
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42
Length – Number of quarters in expansion
Data Source: Truist IAG, Haver, Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Actual data through 2Q2021; 3Q2021 uses Bloomberg consensus estimate.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Consumer spending remains solid
While not as comprehensive as traditional retail
Change in card spending
sales, card spending data shows that while overall
spending is up compared to the pre-pandemic Services Goods Overall Spending
baseline, it has shifted greatly between the
40%
categories.
Overall spending is up 15.7%, with spending on both 20%
goods and services back above pre-pandemic levels.
And just two of the six categories remain in negative
territory with entertainment and transportation 0%
spending down 4% and 9%, respectively.
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Feb-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Haver, Affinity Solutions via Opportunity Insights; daily values of credit/debit card spending are a seven-day
moving average, seasonally adjusting by dividing each calendar date recent value by its corresponding 2019 value, then indexed
relative to pre-COVID-19 by dividing the series by its average value over January 4-31, 2020 baseline; data through September 10,
2021.Rebuilding of depleted inventories and massive order backlogs are tailwinds
for economic growth
Business inventories by nearly any measure remain well below pre-pandemic levels. For example, retail inventories are below 2019 levels despite retail
sales having surged more than 17% above pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Customers’ Inventories Index
remains at the lowest level in over 20 years.
U.S. retail inventories (in $billions) ISM Customers' Inventories
60
Growing
Index Value, 50 = expansion
$700
$650
50
$600
$550 Shrinking
40
$500
$450
$400 30
$350
$300 20
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics; monthly data through August 2021.Transitory factors beginning to fade, but inflation likely stays elevated
Two of the biggest contributors to the recent jump in inflation have been vehicles and the reopening sectors, such as airlines, rental cars, recreational
goods and services, and apparel. Several of these factors are already starting to fade, which should continue as the economy normalizes (i.e., production
and supply chains recover, consumer spending shifts back towards services, etc.). Meanwhile, shelter, which was softer in 2020, is firming as home
prices and rents recover. Ultimately, we anticipate inflation will remain somewhat higher relative to pre-pandemic levels.
Contributors to Core Consumer Price Index (year-over-year change)
5
Reopening
4 sectors
1.0 0.8
All other 0.7
Percentage points
sectors 1.0
3 New & used
vehicles
0.6 1.7 1.65 1.45
0.2
1.1
2 0.4 0.8
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.4 0.3 0.4
1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7
1.4 1.3 1.4
0 -0.1
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
-1
Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Data Source: Truist IAG, Haver, Bureau of Labor Statistics; data through August 2021. Core consumer price index excludes food and energy. Vehicles includes new vehicles, used cars and trucks. Shelter includes
owners' equivalent rent of residences, rent of primary residence, and lodging away from home. Reopening sectors includes transportation services, recreation services, recreation commodities, and apparel. Other
includes all other components. Total may vary due to rounding.Current environment is very different than during 2013’s taper tantrum Nearly every economic metric is dramatically improved both since the 2020 COVID-19 recession and relative to 2013. Indicator May 2013 September 2021 GDP growth (annualized) 2Q13: 0.6% 2Q21: 6.5% Core inflation (year-over-year change) 1.7% 4.0% New home sales (annualized) 428,000 740,000 Existing home sales (annualized) 4.55 million 5.88 million Unemployment rate 7.5% 5.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 2.1% 1.5% Asset purchases per month $85B $120B Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis; data through September 30, 2021.
Stocks broke 7-month winning streak but primary trend appears higher
S&P 500 price
5000
+27% from
pre-pandemic peak
4500
+93%
4000 from low
3500
3000
2500
2000 -34%
1500
2019 2020 2021
Data Source Truist IAG, FactSet
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Stocks finally saw the first 5% pullback, which is the norm rather than the
exception
The only two years that did not see at least a 5% pullback were 1995 and 2017. Periodic setbacks are the admission price to the stock market, and our
view is investors are generally better served to focus on the primary market trend, which our work suggests is higher over the next 12 months.
S&P 500 intra-year declines vs. Calendar year price returns
Price Return Intra-Year Decline
34%
31% 30%
27% 27% 29%
26% 26% 26% 26%
23%
20% 20% 19%
17% 16% 20%
15% 15% 14%
12% 13% 13% 11%
9% 10%
7%
4% 3% 4%
1% 2%
0%
-2% -1%
-3% -3%
-7% -7%-6% -7% -6% -7% -5%
-8% -9% -8% -8% -6% -5% -6%
-10% -8% -10% -8% -8% -7%
-9% -11% -12% -13% -10% -10% -11%
-13% -14% -12%
-16%
-17% -18% -17% -19%
-17%
-19% -20%
-20% -23%
-30% -28%
-34% -34% -34%
-38%
-49%
'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Past performance does not guarantee future results. 2021 return and drawdown is year to date as of 9/30/21.
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSetStocks remain in a seasonally-choppier period, but this tends to turn more
positive later in October
Stocks have seen a bumpier path in September,
S&P 500 – Average calendar year path
consistent with the typical seasonal weakness and
our expectations. Early in October, choppy waters are
since 1950 vs. current
likely to continue given the ongoing political wrangling Average (l-scale) 2021 (r-scale)
and debt ceiling drama. That said, as we move later
into the month, the seasonal backdrop should 10% 25%
become more supportive. Since 1950, stocks have
9%
risen 79% of the time in the fourth quarter, with an
average gain of 4%. 20%
8%
7%
15%
6%
5% 10%
4%
5%
3%
2%
0%
1%
0% -5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet
Past performance does not guarantee future resultsInvestor sentiment sharply reset, a positive from a contrarian standpoint
The four-week average of bullish investors has dropped to just 30%, according to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). This is the
lowest since last October, just prior to the election. Similarly, short-term newsletter writers are now recommending just an 11% equity allocation, down
from 70% earlier this year, according to the Hulbert Sentiment Index.
% AAII Bulls – 4-week average Hulbert Sentiment Index –
60% 100.0% % equity allocation from newsletters
52%
80.0% 70%
50%
60.0%
40.0%
40%
20.0%
30% 11%
0.0%
30%
-20.0%
20%
-40.0%
10% -60.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet, American Association of American Investors, Hulbert Sentiment IndexMarket valuations reset to lowest level since May 2020; earnings account for
entire gains this year
S&P 500
4800
As a result of the recent pullback, the S&P 500’s 4400 YTD price change = +14.7%
forward P/E, while still elevated, is now at the lowest 4000
level since May of 2020.
3600
Moreover, we have seen significant upward earnings
3200
revisions as the economy recovers. Earnings have
been the entire driver of market gains this year. 2800 Forward price-to-earnings
24x
23.4
23x 22.5
22x
21x YTD P/E change = -10.4%
20x 20.2
20.1
Forward 12-month earnings estimates
YTD earnings
$220
$210 estimate change = +28.1%
$200
$190
$180
$170
$160
$150
$140
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Small caps’ risk/reward attractive as underperformance now at an extreme
After prices had moved too far too fast to the upside
Small caps rolling 6-month return relative to large caps
earlier in the year, small caps have seen a sharp
reversal. This is one of the most extreme periods of
50%
underperformance witnessed over the past decade.
Our view is that sentiment has now become overly
negative and valuations very attractive, setting up a 40%
favorable risk/reward opportunity for small caps.
30%
Extreme outperformance
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Extreme underperformance
-30%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet. Small caps = S&P Small Cap 600, large caps = S&P 500
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Large cap value – Valuations remain very attractive, and relative price
trends are improving
After lagging during the summer economic slowdown, price trends for the value style have started to improve. Our outlook for above-trend economic
growth and a rebound in interest rates should support a modest tilt to the value style, which trades at a multi-decade low valuation relative to growth.
Large cap value forward P/E Large cap value price
relative to large cap growth relative to large cap growth
1.1 111
1.0 109
107
0.9
105
Average
0.8
103
0.7
101
0.6
99
0.5 Value’s P/E near a 20-year 97
low relative to growth
0.4 95
'01 '02 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '18 '19 '20 '21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21
Data Source Truist IAG, FactSet
Sectors represented by S&P style indices. Past performance does not guarantee future results.Economically-sensitive areas were hit with summer slowdown but should
benefit as the economy sets up for positive surprises
The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index, which measures how economic reports come in relative to expectations, has declined sharply. However, it is now
depressed and at an area that has tended to be followed by positive economic surprises. Improved economic trends should benefit cyclical areas of the
market, where fund outflows have also moved to an extreme. These outflows reflect low investor expectations, a positive from a contrarian standpoint.
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index 3-month ETF flows –
300 Economically-sensitive sectors
(Financials, Energy, Materials, Industrials)
250
Inflows at an
200 20 extreme
150 15
100
10
50
5
$ billions
0
-
-50
(5)
-100
(10)
-150 Outflows at an
(15) extreme
-200
'11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Data Source Truist IAG, FactSet
Sector flows represented by the SPDR sector ETFs
Past performance does not guarantee future resultsStay with U.S. bias – U.S. earnings still leading the globe
We hold a U.S. equity bias and expect the U.S. to maintain a premium valuation relative to the globe. U.S. profits were stronger relative to those of other
regions prior to the decline and are rebounding more quickly, aided by better economic trends.
Global earnings Current forward P/E and range since 2003
indexed at 100 as of 12/31/2017 Average Current
U.S. EAFE Eurozone Japan EM 35x
160
150 U.S. 30x
140
130 25x
120 EM
20x
EAFE 21.0
110 Japan 15.3 15.4
Eurozone
100 15x
15.5 12.6
90
10x
80
70 5x
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 U.S.
U.S. EAFE Eurozone Japan EM
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet, MSCI
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Earnings are next twelve months’ earnings in local currency.
U.S. = MSCI USA, Japan = MSCI Japan, EAFE = MSCI EAFE, EM = MSCI EM, Eurozone = MSCI EMUStay underweight emerging markets given China is the largest weighting
We downgraded emerging markets earlier in the year due to concerns around the crackdown on the technology titans by the Chinese government as well
as underwhelming profit trends. Since then, our concerns have only heightened, and our view is this will likely lead to further earnings weakness. And,
with China accounting for 34% of the EM index, events in China can significantly impact the overall asset class.
Countries in emerging markets universe China’s earnings and price trends
relative to the U.S. continue to weaken
Saudi 120
Arabia 3% Relative NTM EPS Relative price USD
Russia 110
4%
China 34% 100
Brazil 4%
90
India 12% 80
70
Taiwan
Korea 15%
13% 60
Indexed at 100 as of 12/31/2014
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Data Source: Truist IAG, MSCI, FactSet. China = MSCI China, U.S. = MSCI USAChina likely to continue to underperform as crackdown persists
China’s regulatory crackdown on privately-owned
S&P 500 and MSCI China – Year-to-date performance
technology companies started last year when the
authorities abruptly cancelled Ant Group’s well- MSCI China S&P 500
anticipated IPO. This year, the Chinese government’s
accelerated regulatory overhaul in multiple sectors
causing a significant drag on Chinese equities.
30%
20%
National People’s
Congress lowers
GDP outlook China’s Cyberspace
10% Administration hits ride-
hailing company Didi
Crackdown on private
tutoring companies
0%
Video game
bans for minors
-10%
Common prosperity Casino
drive by Xi Jinping crackdown
-20% in Macau
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg. Past performance does not guarantee future resultsYield curve steepening making a comeback
The recent steepening trend – created by the combination of short rate stability and rising long-term yields – accelerated following the Fed’s September
meeting where it signaled a strong desire to begin the tapering process. Resilient consumer activity, improving COVID-19 trends, and elevated inflation
readings support higher yields into year end as the Fed starts reducing its monthly asset purchases.
U.S. Treasury yields 2/10-year yield curve
2-year 10-year 3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
1.5% 1.49% 2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.28% 0.0%
0.0% -0.5%
Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21 Sep-21 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg
Data as of 9/30/2021
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Fed eyeing hotter inflation, creating an increasingly hawkish bias
Throughout 2021, the Fed has been raising its core PCE inflation expectations in its quarterly projections. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages are
fostering more durable inflationary pressures than the Fed originally anticipated. In response, an increasing number of committee members see the first
rate hike arriving by the end of 2022. The more hawkish Fed outlook should contribute to a further rise in yields for months to come.
Fed core PCE inflation projections FOMC members (18 total) projecting at least
one rate hike by the end of each year
2021 2022
2022 2023
3.7% 17
13
3.0%
9
2.3%
2.2% 7 7
2.1%
2.0%
1.9% 5
1.8%
4
1
Dec 2020 meeting Mar 2021 meeting Jun 2021 meeting Sep 2021 meeting Dec 2020 meeting Mar 2021 meeting Jun 2021 meeting Sep 2021 meeting
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg
Data as of 9/30/2021
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Historic disconnect between U.S. inflation and yields should narrow
Since March, U.S. yields have largely ignored
Core inflation versus U.S. Treasury yields
extraordinary inflation data on the basis they would
quickly ease. A historically-large disconnect exists Core PCE (YoY) Core CPI (YoY) 10-year
between the annual inflation rate and intermediate
U.S. yield levels.
5%
We expect inflation and U.S. yields will converge as
inflation cools from extreme levels but remains
elevated compared to pre-pandemic trends and U.S.
4%
yields rise based on Fed tapering and growth
optimism.
3%
2%
1%
0%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg
Data as of 9/30/2021
Past performance does not guarantee future results.As global yields rise, downward pressure on U.S. yields should ease
Over the past month, the vast majority of global sovereign yields increased. International investors have provided a powerful source of demand for U.S.
debt given its relatively high yields. As global yields increased, foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries fell sharply. We expect global demand for U.S. fixed
income to decline as our international sovereign peers more fully reopen and those yields rise. That should allow U.S. rates to drift higher in sympathy.
1.5% 1.5% Global 10-year sovereign yields 1.5%
Current yield September change
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
0.2%
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
0.1% 0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2% -0.2%
U.S. Canada U.K. Italy Spain Sweden France Netherlands Switzerland Germany Australia Japan
North America Europe Asia Pacific
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg
Data as of 9/30/2021Relative value in fixed income
Our constructive expectations for the economy continue to drive our preference for U.S. credit sectors, including leveraged loans and high yield corporate
bonds, where incremental yield opportunities exist. However, high quality fixed income remains an important ballast for portfolios. We still favor
investment grade corporates in this space; however, the recent rise in U.S. Treasury and MBS yields has restored some relative value.
Current yield vs. 10-year range
10% Range Current Yield
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
U.S. 10-yr Treasury
U.S. core taxable
Preferreds
IG corp
EM loc cur
MBS
Intl dev mrkts
Lev loans
Munis
HY muni
EM hard cur
HY corp
-2%
High quality Higher risk
Data Source: Truist IAG, FactSet, yield to worst shown except for preferreds (yield to maturity) and EM bond indexes.
U.S. 10-Yr Treasury = Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (10-Yr), U.S. Core Taxable = Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate, Municipals = Bloomberg Municipal Bond 1-15 Year, U.S. Corporates = Bloomberg U.S. Corporate
IG, MBS = Bloomberg U.S. MBS, Intl Dev Mkts = ICE BofA Global Government ex U.S. (U.S.D hedged), HY Corp = ICE BofA U.S. High Yield, Lev Loans = S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index, HY Muni =
Bloomberg Municipal High Yield, Preferreds = ICE BofA Fixed Rate Preferred, EM Hard Cur = JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified, EM Loc Cur = JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified. Past performance does not
guarantee future results. Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks, including market, interest rate, issuer and inflation risk – investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when
redeemed. The value of most bond strategies and fixed income securities are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and more volatile than
securities with shorter durations – bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and values rise when interest rates decline. Past performance does not guarantee future results.Strong reinvestment activity, insufficient supply driving muni outperformance
The AAA muni curve remains expensive relative to
Muni yields as a % of U.S. Treasury yields
U.S. Treasuries, except for the first year of maturities.
However, AAA muni-to-U.S. Treasury ratios improved 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 8/31/2021 9/30/2021
modestly in September. Still, tax-exempt munis
outperformed taxable core fixed income due to strong
reinvestment activity and ongoing tax uncertainty.
137%
AA-, A-, and BBB-rated issuers still offer a more
compelling risk-reward balance but require careful
selection. However, powerful federal stimulus has
provided a wide array of muni issuers with an
additional layer of liquidity and operational flexibility.
88%
84% 85%
75% 77% 76%
74% 74% 72% 74%
71%
63% 65% 65% 63%
58% 59%
44%
34%
1-year 3-year 7-year 10-year 20-year
Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg. Interest income may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax. Other state and local taxes
may apply.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Publication details
Contributors
Keith Chip Michael
Lerner, CFA, CMT Hughey, CFA Skordeles, AIF®
Co-Chief Investment Officer, Managing Director, Senior U.S. Macro Strategist,
Chief Market Strategist Fixed Income Portfolio & Market Strategy
Shelly Jeff
Eylem
Simpson, CFA, CAIA Terrell, CFA
Senyuz
Senior Investment Strategy Analyst, Senior Investment Strategy
Senior Global Macro Portfolio & Market Strategy
Strategist, Analyst,
Portfolio & Market Strategy Portfolio & Market Strategy
Dylan Emily Evan
Kase, CFA Novick, CFA, CFP® Moog, CFA
Investment Strategy Analyst, Senior Portfolio Construction Analyst, Investment Advisory Associate,
Portfolio & Market Strategy Portfolio & Market Strategy Fixed Income Strategies
Ad d i t i o n a l C o n t r i b u t o r t o S e c t o r S t r a t e g y
Charles
East
Senior Equity Strategy Analyst,
Equity Strategies
Editors
Oliver Julie
Merten, CFA, CFP® Parham
Managing Director, Manager,
Investment Communications Investment
CommunicationsDisclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. International investments are subject to special risks, such as political unrest, economic instability, and currency fluctuations. Emerging Markets – Investing in the securities of such companies and countries involves certain considerations not usually associated with investing in developed countries, including unstable political and economic conditions, adverse geopolitical developments, price volatility, lack of liquidity, and fluctuations in currency exchange rate. Truist, Truist®, GFO Advisory Services®, BB&T® and Sterling Capital® are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation. All rights reserved. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and Truist Delaware Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc., and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc., GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. Investors may be prohibited in certain states from purchasing some over-the-counter securities mentioned herein. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. Asset classes are represented by the following indexes. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. S&P 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Equity is represented by the MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 2,757 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays Aggregate Index. The index measures the performance of the U.S. investment grade bond market. The index invests in a wide spectrum of public, investment-grade, taxable, fixed income securities in the United States – including government, corporate, and international dollar-denominated bonds, as well as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, all with maturities of more than 1 year.
Disclosures Commodities are represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index which is a composition of futures contracts on physical commodities. It currently includes a diversified mix of commodities in five sectors including energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals and livestock. The weightings of the commodities are calculated in accordance with rules that ensure that the relative proportion of each of the underlying individual commodities reflects its global economic significance and market liquidity. Cash is represented by the ICE BofAML U.S. Treasury Bill 3 Month Index which is a subset of the ICE BofAML 0-1 Year U.S. Treasury Index including all securities with a remaining term to final maturity less than 3 months. U.S. Large Cap Equity is represented by the S&P 500 Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. U.S. Mid Cap is represented by the S&P MidCap 400® provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index, which is distinct from the large-cap S&P 500®, measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment. U.S. Small Cap Core Equity is represented by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index which is a measure of the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe International Developed Markets is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across 21 Developed Markets countries* around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. With 921 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. Emerging Markets is represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 1,125 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. Value is represented by the S&P 500 Value Index which is a subset of stocks in the S&P 500 that have the properties of value stocks. Growth is represented by the S&P 500 Growth Index which is a subset of stocks in the S&P 500 that have the properties of growth stocks. U.S. Government Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Government Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of all publicly issued, non-convertible domestic debt of the U.S. government or any agency thereof, or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the U.S. government U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities are represented by the U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index which covers agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index which is an unmanaged index consisting of publicly issued U.S. Corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that are rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two ratings agencies, have at least one year to final maturity and have at least $250 million par amount outstanding. The S&P U.S. REIT index measures the investable universe of publicly traded real estate investment trusts domiciled in the United States U.S. High Yield Corp is represented by the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index tracks the performance of below investment grade, but not in default, U.S. dollar denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market, and includes issues with a credit rating of BBB or below, as rated by Moody’s and S&P. Floating Rate Bank Loans are represented by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index. The index represents tradable, senior-secured, U.S.-dollar-denominated non-investment-grade loans. Global Equity is represented by the MSCI All World Country (ACWI) Index which is defined as a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI Index consists of 48 country indices comprising 24 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries. Emerging Markets Equity is represented by the MSCI EM Index which is defined as a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets countries Intermediate Term Municipal Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Blend 1-15 Year (1-17 Yr) is an unmanaged index of municipal bonds with a minimum credit rating of at least Baa, issued as part of a deal of at least $50 million, that have a maturity value of at least $5 million and a maturity range of 12 to 17 years.
Disclosures U.S. Core Taxable Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). Slide 50 – EU Corporate is represented by the Bloomberg Euro-Aggregate Corporates Index which is a benchmark that measures the corporate component of the Euro Aggregate Index and includes investment grade, euro-denominated, fixed-rate securities. U.S. Government Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Government Index which is an unmanaged index comprised of all publicly issued, non-convertible domestic debt of the U.S. government or any agency thereof, or any quasi-federal corporation and of corporate debt guaranteed by the U.S. government. U.S. IG Corporate Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes U.S.D denominated securities publicly issued by U.S. and non-U.S. industrial, utility and financial issuers. U.S. High Yield Corporate Bonds are represented by the ICE BofAML U.S. HY Master Index which is an index that tracks U.S. dollar denominated debt below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. S&P 500 Information Technology Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Financials Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financials sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Energy Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Materials Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Industrials Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Communication Services Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the communication services sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Utilities Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Health Care Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector based on GICS® classification. S&P 500 Real Estate Index – a capitalization-weighted index that is composed of those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector based on GICS® classification. ©2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist®, the Truist logo, and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation. All rights reserved. CN2021-3516 EXP12-2021
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