Looking Forward: 2023 Salmon Fisheries - PRELIMINARY PRE-SEASON PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS FRASER AND APPROACH SALMON FORUM JANUARY 31 - FEBRUARY 2, 2023
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Looking Forward: 2023 Salmon Fisheries
PRELIMINARY PRE-SEASON PLANNING
CONSIDERATIONS
FRASER AND APPROACH SALMON FORUM
JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 2, 2023
Outline
A. IFMP Planning Considerations:
1. First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial Fisheries
2. COSEWIC and SARA Listing Timelines
3. Rebuilding / Fish Stock Provisions
4. Chinook Management
5. Southern Resident Killer Whale Management
Measures
6. Interior Fraser Steelhead
2
Outline (con’t)
8. Fraser River Sockeye
9. Fraser River Pink
10. Interior Fraser Coho
11. CSAF Demonstration Fisheries
B. IFMP process timelines
3
A. IFMP Planning Considerations
• Key planning considerations reflect areas where
Department expects discussion on potential changes to
management approaches and decision guidelines for the
2023 fishing season
• A letter was sent to First Nations and stakeholders in mid-
January with further details on planning
• Consultations with First Nations and stakeholders will occur
as part of process to develop the draft salmon IFMPs and
will include a minimum 30-day public comment period
prior to finalizing 2023/24 salmon IFMPs
41. First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial Fisheries
• Staff will consult with First Nations on fishing plans that
achieve conservation objectives and provide FSC harvest
opportunities
• Restrictions in commercial and recreational fisheries may be
required to provide for First Nations harvest opportunities
• Meetings planned with First Nations, including the Fraser
Forum, to discuss salmon fishing plans as part of the IFMP
process
• The Department signed the Fraser Salmon Collaborative
Management Agreement and will be working via the Fraser
Salmon Management Board (FSMB) to advance key FSMB work
plan items, including reviewing Chinook mortalities from the
2021 season
52. Salmon COSEWIC Assessments
Listing processes are underway for 45 designatable units (DUs) of Pacific salmon and trout
assessed as Endangered (EN), Threatened (TH), or Special Concern (SC)
COSEWIC Annual Current stage in DFO
Species # of DUs COSEWIC Status
Report listing process
1 2 3 4 5 6
Sakinaw Sockeye 1 EN Oct 2016 ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼
Okanagan Chinook 1 EN Oct 2017 ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼
Interior Fraser Coho 1 TH Oct 2017 ◼ ◼
Fraser Sockeye (Group I) 24 8 EN, 2 TH, 5 SC (9 NAR) Oct 2018 ◼ ◼
Southern BC Chinook (Group I) 16 8 EN, 4 TH, 1 SC (1 NAR, 2 DD) Oct 2019 ◼ ◼
Southern BC Chinook (Group II) 12 4 EN, 3 TH, 1 SC (1 NAR, 3 DD) Oct 2021 ◼ ◼
Steelhead Trout (Thompson
2 2 EN Oct 2021 ◼*
and Chilcotin)
Fraser Sockeye (Group II) 7 2 EN, 2 SC (3 EX) Nov 2022 ◼
COSEWIC – Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada
EX – Extinct, NAR – Not at Risk, DD – Data Deficient
◼ = complete, ◼ = underway / in preparation
*= science advice
62. Okanagan Chinook and Sakinaw Sockeye
• Expect engagement to Species at Risk Act Listing Process
begin in February/March COSEWIC
2023 Status Assessment COSEWIC
• Seeking input to inform
cost-benefit analysis and DFO Process
1. Recovery Potential Assessment
listing decisions 2. Management Scenarios
DFO
• Potential opportunities 3. Indigenous Cultural Significance Pacific
4. Socioeconomic Analysis
for input: online, mail/e-
5. Engagement and Consultations
mail, webinar, meetings 6. Regional Recommendation
Minister of
Environment
Do Not Refer Back Governor in
List Council
List to COSEWIC
73. Rebuilding / Fish Stocks Provisions
◦ Three Pacific Salmon stocks were included in the Fishery
(General) Regulations (FGR) under the Fish Stocks provisions
(FSP) in April 2022
◦ Maintain prescribed fish stocks at levels necessary to
promote their sustainability (s. 6.1); develop and implement
rebuilding plans for stocks that have declined to or below
their LRP (s. 6.2)
◦ Salmon Stocks: Okanagan Chinook, WCVI Chinook, and
Interior Fraser Coho
◦ Work underway to develop rebuilding plans for WCVI Chinook and
Okanagan Chinook
◦ Record of Evidence will be added to IFMP PA policy compliance on for
Interior Fraser Coho
83. Rebuilding / Fish Stocks Provisions
Pre-consultation occurred on a proposal for a regulatory amendment to the
Fishery (General) Regulations to prescribe a second batch of major fish
stocks
o Yukon Chinook
o Fraser (Early Stuart) Sockeye
o Barkley Sound Sockeye
o Fraser River Pink
Information on this proposal can be found here:
https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/about-notre-sujet/engagement/2022/fish-
stock-provisions-dispositions-stocks-poissons-eng.html
Next step in the regulatory process is Canada Gazette I – schedule not yet
known
94. 2022 Chinook Measures Provision of priority access for First Nations FSC harvests in south coast and Fraser River. ◦ South Coast FSC fisheries opportunities on mixed stocks were permitted in marine areas with the exception of the approaches to Fraser River (Subareas 29-6, 29-7, 29-9 and 29-10). ◦ Very limited Fraser River FSC fisheries opportunities were permitted in June and July to limit impacts on at-risk Fraser Chinook, with opportunities to target healthy Summer 41 Chinook in August. Commercial troll fisheries delayed into August to avoid Fraser Chinook encounters. ◦ Area F (Northern BC) – Chinook non-retention until August 10 (directed Coho fishery also closed) ◦ Area G (WCVI) – Delayed start until August 1 Recreational measures ◦ Summarized on following slide ◦ A small number of terminal and non-Fraser Chinook retention MSF opportunities also provided; ◦ Additional details to be provided by Fishery Notice and maps on DFO web-site: https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/salmon-saumon/fraser-chin-mgmt-gest-quin-eng.html . 10
2022 Recreational Chinook Management Measures
Queen Charlotte through Strait Strait of Georgia – North
of Georgia – North • Apr. 1 to Jul. 14,
• Apr. 1 to Jul. 14, Chinook non- Chinook non-retention; Portions of Southern Strait
retention; • July 15 to Aug. 31, 1 of Georgia, Howe Sound
• July 15 to Aug. 16, 1 Chinook/day maximum and Burrard Inlet (hatched
Chinook/day; maximum 80 80cm area)
cm • Sept. 1 to March 31, 2 • April 1 to August 31: No
• Aug. 17 to Aug. 31, 1 Chinook/day fishing for Chinook
Chinook/day • September 1 to March
• Sep. 1 to March 31, 2 31: 2 Chinook per day.
Chinook/day
WCVI offshore and portion of
Juan de Fuca Strait
• Apr. 1 to Jul. 14, Chinook non-
retention;
• July 15 to July 31, 2
Chinook/day maximum 80 cm
• Aug 1 to March 31, 2
Chinook/day
Strait of Georgia – South
and portion of Juan de Fuca
Strait
• Apr. 1 to Jul. 31, Chinook
non-retention;
• Aug. 1 to Aug. 31, 1
Chinook/day maximum
80cm
11 • Sept. 1 to March 31, 2
Chinook/day.5. Fraser Chinook Management and Data Review
Fishery evaluation data for Chinook available in Winter/Spring of
following year includes:
1. Final spawner abundance estimates
2. Big Bar impacts
3. Terminal return / Run size (Run Reconstruction)
4. Fishing impacts on Fraser stocks of concern:
a) Coded-wire tag (CWT) recoveries
b) Exploitation rate analysis (ERA) results
c) Estimated fishing mortalities via genetic stock identification (GSI) analysis
and run reconstruction; focus on Fraser Chinook but potential future
expansion to other southern Chinook populations
125. Southern BC Chinook 2023 Management Measures • Continuing ongoing management objectives for Spring 42, Spring 52 and Summer 52 Fraser Chinook to manage Canadian fisheries in highly precautionary manner to allow as many fish to pass through to spawning grounds as possible • Restrictions for Fraser Chinook covering wide times/areas of Southern BC and parts of Northern BC also benefit other co-migrating Chinook; additional stock specific measures will be identified in IFMPs • Additional discussions will be required on management measures to address PST obligations for Harrison (Fall 41) Chinook • Planning to anticipate continuation of measures in similar times/areas similar to recent years; and, • Consideration of potential adjustments to current fishery management measures will be discussed and reviewed during Salmon IMFP process • Management measures are anticipated to be required for many years given the status of Southern BC / Fraser Chinook. 13
5. Southern BC Chinook
Mass Marking / Mark Selective Fisheries
• As part of PSSI, DFO developed a discussion paper to help inform
future decision making around the use of hatchery Chinook mass
marking (MM) and mark-selective fisheries (MSF)
• Considerable interest and concerns raised around the use of MM/MSF
as management tools
• DFO will be holding additional workshops in Winter 2022/23 to explore
key issues identified during feedback period
• Draft implementation plans will begin to be developed in Winter
2022/23
• Additional consultations on MM/MSF implementation will occur
through the IFMP process, and process for enhancement production
plans
146. Southern Resident Killer Whale Southern Resident Killer Whales are listed as Endangered on Schedule 1 of the Species at Risk Act (SARA) – only 73 remaining. Human caused factors are negatively affecting Southern Resident Killer Whales, and their habitat and prey. To support the protection and recovery of Southern Resident Killer Whales, the Government of Canada is collaborating with Indigenous groups, stakeholders and other levels of government, including the Province of BC and the US. The overall goal under the Recovery strategy for the northern and southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Canada is to ensure the long-term viability of resident killer whale populations by achieving and maintaining demographic conditions that preserve their reproductive potential, genetic variation and cultural continuity. Enhanced management measures have been put in place since 2018 to address the primary threats to their recovery, including reduced prey availability and physical and acoustic disturbance 15
2022 SRKW Management Measures
166. Southern Resident Killer Whale – 2023 Planning The Government of Canada has developed potential 2023 management measures based on feedback received from Indigenous groups and stakeholders, including the Multi-Nation group, Indigenous and Multi- Stakeholder Advisory Group, Technical Working Groups and bilateral discussions. Potential fishery management measures for 2023 are designed to support food availability and reduce physical and acoustic disturbance in key Southern Resident Killer Whale foraging areas. The Government of Canada is currently consulting on the potential 2023 management measures and seeking feedback by February 19, 2023. Please submit any feedback on the potential management measures via the online public survey or contact the DFO Marine Mammal Team via email DFO.SRKW-ERS.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca for more information. 17
7. Interior Fraser River Steelhead: Status • Thompson and Chilcotin Steelhead (TCS) COSEWIC assessment remain as Endangered • In-season projections of spawning escapements for Thompson and Chilcotin Steelhead that returned in 2022 (spawning in spring of 2023) are 339 and 166, respectively. ◦ Final Steelhead spawning escapement estimates will be available in Summer of 2023. ◦ DFO remains committed to working with the Province to support the TCS Species at Risk Act listing process, and to implement the joint Interior Fraser Steelhead British Columbia/Canada Action Plan 18
7. IFR Steelhead: 2023 Planning
• Given the ongoing expectation of low IFR Steelhead abundance,
measures to protect IFR Steelhead are expected to continue for
some time.
• We do not anticipate implementing significant changes to the IFR
Steelhead management approach for salmon fisheries given the
current information available.
• DFO will be working with First Nations and stakeholders to ensure
that all our programs, including hatchery and habitat management,
are aligned to support IFR Steelhead recovery
197. 2022 Chum Fisheries / 2023 Planning •Returns of Chum salmon to the Fraser River, Strait of Georgia, and Nitinat were generally below escapement targets in 2022, although a few systems on ECVI met escapement goals. New in- season decision guidelines were in place in 2022 for marine and Fraser River recreational fisheries. •Commercial: There were limited commercial Chum fisheries in Johnstone Strait and terminal Vancouver Island systems. Openings were delayed due to extreme drought conditions on Vancouver Island, which limited passage of Chum to their spawning reaches. •First Nations FSC: FN FSC opportunities for Chum salmon were provided for First Nations in the marine area (not affected by IFS window closure) and the Fraser River (following the IFR Steelhead closure dates), with mandatory Steelhead release. •Recreational: Marine recreational fisheries were open with Steelhead release. Many Region 1 systems were closed to fishing for salmon due to extreme drought conditions. Fraser River Chum recreational fisheries opened at the end of October/early November once in-season run-size abundance guidelines were met (following the IFR Steelhead closure dates). •Major changes are not anticipated for South Coast Chum fisheries decision guidelines in 2023. However, the development of guidelines for fisheries implementation during extreme drought conditions could be considered during this year’s planning process. 20
8. Fraser River Sockeye
◦ A quantitative forecast is expected in early 2023 and escapement plan options
will be available for review in the draft IFMP
◦ The 2023 return will mark the first return of Fraser Sockeye that were impacted
by the Big Bar landslide in 2019;
◦ Escapement in 2019 was the second lowest recorded
• Management measures to protect stocks of concern:
◦ duration of the window closure or other measures to protect weak Sockeye
stocks returning within the aggregates;
◦ escapement plan for each aggregate;
◦ additional management measures for stocks of concern; and,
◦ FSC fishery planning for returns at low TAC or below escapement targets
• Mitigate passage challenges (i.e., Big Bar slide) and adverse environmental
conditions during migration
21Fraser Sockeye Returns
•Highlighted boxes show
forecast value closest to the
actual return for that year
•Returns have been near
the p50 forecast most of the
time
(p25-p75)
•However, consistent low
productivity after 2015
•2021 and 2022 shifted forecast
methodology to consider recent
productivity
Brood Year (2019)
*2020-2021 are preliminary estimates
229. Fraser River Pink
•A quantitative forecast for Fraser Pink salmon will be available
concurrently with the Fraser Sockeye forecast
•The 2023 Pink salmon return is very uncertain; in addition to the typical
uncertainties associated with the forecast, the brood year outmigration
was likely heavily impacted by severe flooding in the lower Fraser in the
fall of 2021
•The outmigration of fry in early 2022 (the brood for the 2023 return) was
lower than average, and the peak of the outmigration was two weeks later
than the average
•An escapement plan will be consulted upon via the IFMP
2310. Southern BC Coho
Interior Fraser River Coho
• Interior Fraser River (IFR) Coho is managed using a decision framework that
identifies status based on a combination of marine survival rates and spawner
abundance
• IFR Coho has been in Low status for many years
• Low status: 20% ER cap for US and Canada combined
• Each country has a 10% ER cap at Low status. A county may choose to manage to a lower
ER domestically.
• Canada implemented 3-5% ER on IFR Coho in 2022, and will consult on the ER for 2023
through the IFMP process
• IFR Coho will continue to be in Low status in 2023, as the marine survival rate is still
below the required threshold.
• Preliminary 2022 escapement and survival estimate for IFR Coho will be available
in February
2410. IFR Coho Status Zones
Low Moderate Abundant
Three consecutive years Three consecutive years
Survival S 1000
CU > 1000
Escapement and sub pops but or
or
no thresholds Aggregate MU esc.
Aggregate MU esc.
objective (e.g., revised
objective (e.g., 27,000)
40,000)
ER cap 0.20 0.30 0.45
(US/Can) (0.10/0.10) (0.12/0.18) (0.15/0.30)
Despite improved escapements, we have not met Moderate survival criteria for three
consecutive years, so expect planning based on LOW status for 2023.
2510. Southern Inside Coho Stock assessment projects underway to develop escapement estimates and eventually status determination frameworks for Strait of Georgia and Lower Fraser Coho Lower Fraser Coho - Genetic Mark-Recapture Program • A pilot mark-recapture program was initiated in 2020 to provide an escapement estimate for this system Strait of Georgia Coho Assessment – Fishery Sampling Pilot • Retention of 1 unmarked Coho permitted in portions of areas 13-15 from Sept 1-30 • DNA were collected from marked and unmarked Coho as they are encountered in the fishery; target 1000-2000 samples • Parentage Based Tagging (PBT) to determine origin of hatchery fish combined with hatchery returns to estimate wild abundance 26
11. CSAF Demonstration Fisheries Submissions of any new demonstration fishery proposals (or substantial changes to existing proposals) should be submitted by proponents to ◦ DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca and local Fisheries Managers no later than February 3rd, 2023. As in previous years, this is to ensure sufficient time for the Department to evaluate the proposals and provide an opportunity for feedback and discussion though the draft IFMP consultation process. Demonstration fishery proposals that are not submitted by this deadline will not be considered for the 2023 season. 27
B. 2022/23 IFMP Timelines
Activity Proposed Timelines
Deadline for new CSAF proposals February 3, 2023
Meetings to review and discuss potential changes to IFMPs and Fraser Forum – January 31 - February 2,
opportunity for focussed discussion on key IFMP issues. 2023
Northern IHPC – February 2, 2023
Southern IHPC – February 8, 2023
Draft IFMPs released for public review & comment February 24, 2023
Meetings to review draft IFMP Fraser Forum – February 28 - March 2,
2023
Northern IHPC – March 8, 2023
Southern IHPC – March 9, 2023
Deadline to submit comments on draft IFMP (minimum 30-day April 12, 2023
comment period)
Final Meetings for discussion on IFMP feedback Fraser Forum – April 4-6, 2023
Full IHPC – April 26-27, 2023
Target for public release of salmon IFMP June 30, 2023
28BACKGROUND SLIDES: 29
3. Fraser Chinook 2019 and 2020 Results – Fishery Mortalities 30
DU # Name Status
0 Okanagan Chinook EN
1 Mainland Boundary Bay, Ocean, Fall TH
2 Lower Fraser, Ocean, Fall TH
3 Lower Fraser, Stream, Spring SC
4 Lower Fraser, Stream, Summer (U.Pitt) EN
5 Lower Fraser, Stream, Summer TH
6 Lower Fraser, Ocean, Summer EN
7 Mid Fraser, Stream, Spring EN
8 Mid Fraser, Stream, Fall EN
9 Mid Fraser, Stream, Spring (MFR+GStr) TH
10 Mid Fraser, Stream, Summer TH
11 Upper Fraser, Stream, Spring EN
COSEWIC 12
13
South Thompson, Ocean, Summer
South Thompson, Stream, Summer 1.3
NAR
EN
Status of 14 South Thompson, Stream, Summer 1.2 EN
Southern BC 15
16
Lower Thompson, Stream, Spring
North Thompson, Stream, Spring
EN
EN
Chinook DUs 17 North Thompson, Stream, Summer EN
18 SC - Georgia Strait, Ocean, Fall DD
19 East Vancouver Island, Stream, Spring EN
20 East Vancouver Island, Ocean, Summer EN
21 East Vancouver Island, Ocean, Fall SC
22 SC – Southern Fjords, Ocean, Fall DD
23 East Van. I., Ocean, Fall (EVI + SFj) NAR
24 West Van. I., Ocean, Fall (South) TH
25 West Van. I., Ocean, Fall (Nootka & Kyuquot)TH
26 West Van. I., Ocean, Fall (WVI + WQCI) DD
27 Southern Mainland, Ocean, Summer DD
28 Southern Mainland, Stream, Summer DD
31SARA Listing Process
COSEWIC ASSESSMENT Undertaken by COSEWIC
SARA LISTING PROCESS
▪ Recovery Potential Assessment For aquatic species,
▪ Management Scenarios undertaken by DFO, in
▪ Cultural Significance consultation with First Nations
▪ Socio-economic Analysis and Stakeholders
▪ Consultations
▪ Listing Recommendation
Decision by
REFER BACK TO
DO NOT LIST LIST Governor in Council,
COSEWIC
not DFO or ECCC
Not a SARA file Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened
Protected status, Recovery Strategy & Action Plan, Critical Reassessment
Managed under (where info supports a
alternative regulatory Habitat
change in COSEWIC status)
▪
approach Special Concern
Management Plan only, no protections or Critical Habitat
32SARA Context – Default Listing Position
DFO will advise the List be amended for a species as assessed by COSEWIC, unless
there is a Compelling Rationale not to do so.
When providing Do Not List Advice, DFO must:
o Provide Compelling Rationale
o Create and implement work plan if DFO will undertake incremental activities
o Report on work plan progress after 5 years.
Compelling Rationale must address:
o Alternative recovery approach and expected outcomes in absence of listing
o Net benefits to Canadians of DNL decision.
Compelling Rational is developed in consideration of multiple sources of information
including:
o COSEWIC Assessment, Recovery Potential Assessment, consultation results, approved management
scenarios and their impacts, analysis of costs and benefits.
ohttp://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/species-especes/publications/sara-lep/policy-politique/index-
eng.html
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