London Mayoral Race and Local Issues 18th January 2018 - Prepared Exclusively for the London Institute

London Mayoral Race and
Local Issues
18th January 2018

                             Prepared
                            Exclusively
                          for the London
                              Institute

Past mayoral candidate Paul Cheng has a substantial lead over Mayor Matt Brown
and three other potential candidates, a Mainstreet Research survey finds.

However, any projections of what might happen in the upcoming municipal election
in October 22nd based on this poll must be tempered by the fact that the Mainstreet
survey finds that over 50% of those surveyed are undecided about their first choice.

The high undecided rate might be down to three different reasons. The first is that
voter turnout for municipal elections is usually low and that the high undecided rate
is pointing to general apathy that surrounds these races.

The second is that the election is still ten months away and the election is not front of
mind for voters yet, while the third reason is that London voters have been seriously
put off by Matt Brown’s affair with deputy mayor Maureen Cassidy. Former Brown
supporters may have decided that they are not supporting him in the next
election, but are undecided as to which candidate to support. This might be true
among female voters, as Cheng’s lead over Brown is slightly more than 25%,
compared to 14.5% among men.

No matter what the reasons, our findings are that incumbent Matt Brown will be in
serious trouble and has his work cut out for him going into the next election. Although
Paul Cheng might be in the driver’s seat right now, it is still far too early to call
him the favourite going into the election, as there is still both plenty of time and
oxygen for other candidates – including Brown himself – to win the election in
October.

We have already noted the gender difference in support for the mayoral
candidates. Moreover, support for Cheng increases among older respondents. It
should also be noted that Phil Squire is a very competitive third (14.5%) among
those aged 18 to 34.

As it stands now, however, based on our asking of second and third choices, Paul
Cheng would garner over 50% support on the third ballot.

Regarding what Londoners think are the most important issues, jobs and the local
economy, buses and rapid transit, and property taxes are too high are the top three
most important issues. Among men, buses and rapid transit is the most important
issue, while jobs and the economy is the most important issue. Infrastructure is most
important among respondents in the 18-34 age cohort, while jobs and the economy
is front of mind among those aged 35 to 49. Rapid transit was ranked most
important among those aged 50 to 64, while respondents over the age of 65 said
leadership was most important.

If the election for Mayor of London, Ontario were held today,
         which candidate would be your first choice?

Ballot by Ballot Scenario of the London Mayoral Election
   (based on first, second, and third choice preferences)

What do you think is the most important issue facing London
     that will influence the way you will vote this year?
                   (decided respondents only)

If the election for Mayor of London, Ontario were held today, which candidate
                            would be your first choice?
                                    (all voters)

                    (leaning voters with true undecided totals)

What do you think is the most important issue facing London that will influence
                        the way you will vote this year?

FULL QUESTIONNAIRE
Q1: If the election for Mayor of       Q4: What do you think is the most
London, Ontario were held today,       important issue facing London that
which candidate would be your first    will influence the way you will vote
choice?                                this year?
Press 1 for Matt Brown                 Press 1 for Bus Rapid Transit
Press 2 for Paul Cheng                 Press 2 for Leadership
Press 3 for Josh Morgan                Press 3 for Jobs and the economy
Press 4 for Paul Paolatto              Press 4 for Poverty
Press 5 for Phil Squire                Press 5 for Property taxes being too
Press 6 if you are undecided [ROUTE    high
TO Q4]                                 Press 6 for Infrastructure
                                       Press 7 if you are not sure
Q2: And which mayoral candidate
would be your second choice?           Q5: What is your gender?
Press 1 for Matt Brown                 Male
Press 2 for Paul Cheng                 Female
Press 3 for Josh Morgan
Press 4 for Paul Paolatto              Q6: What is your age group?
Press 5 for Phil Squire                18 to 34 years of age
Press 6 if you have no second choice   35 to 49 years of age
[ROUTE to Q4]                          50 to 64 years of age
Press 7 if you are undecided [ROUTE    65 years of age or older
TO Q4]

Q3: And which mayoral candidate
would be your third choice?
Press 1 for Matt Brown
Press 2 for Paul Cheng
Press 3 for Josh Morgan
Press 4 for Paul Paolatto
Press 5 for Phil Squire
Press 6 if you have no third choice
[ROUTE TO Q4]
Press 7 if you are undecided [ROUTE
TO Q4]

METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 11th, 2018
among a sample of 1018 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in London, Ontario. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
London, Ontario.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has been sponsored by the London
Institute.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialling. In the case of random
digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of whether they lived in London
or not. In both cases, respondents were dialled at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day to maximize the chances of making
contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a
subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in London, Ontario. The population parameters used for weighting
are age and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.07% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.86%, Females: +/-
3.95%, 18-34 age group: +/- 11.02%, 35-49 age group: +/- 9.17%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.49%,
65+ age group: +/- 4.33%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.