Analysis of the passenger car market in various EU Member States
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Analysis of the passenger car
market in various
EU Member States
FuelsEurope workshop
“Ensuring social inclusiveness”
11 June 2021
The information presented in these slides is provisional, may
contain errors or inaccuracies and is subject to change. Any
opinions expressed are those of the author only, and do not
represent the views of The European Petroleum Refiners
Association AISBL ( “FuelsEurope”) or its member companies.
Loes Knotter
FuelsEurope does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
information provided herein. The content of the information Loes.knotter@studiogearup.com
provided is for your general information and use only.
FuelsEurope does not accept any liability for any loss caused by
the understanding and/or use of these slides or its content. These +31-6-48889363
slides should not be copied or otherwise distributed, in whole or in
part, to any other person. www.studiogearup.com
2
In the total energy consumption of all transport segments the road segment has by far the
largest share in Europe
300
250
Energuy consumption in EU27, 2019 (In Mtoe)
Approx. 50% is passenger (light
200 duty) transport
150
100
Approx. 50% is medium/heavy
duty transport
50
0
International maritime International aviation Rail Road Domestic navigation Domestic aviation Pipeline transport Not elsewhere specified
bunkers
Source: Eurostat, (Complete Energy Balance, 2021)Reference to Panoutsou’s presentation on 8th June on biomass availability for transport
Assuming a 50% conversion factor to final
biofuel, this waste and residue base
represents approx. 45 – 100 Mtoe
equivalent amount of biofuels4
In the total energy consumption of all transport segments the road segment has by far the
largest share in Europe
300
250
45 Mtoe
Energuy consumption in EU27, 2019 (In Mtoe)
Approx. 50% is passenger (light
200 duty) transport
100 Mtoe
150
100
Approx. 50% is medium/heavy
duty transport
50
0
International maritime International aviation Rail Road Domestic navigation Domestic aviation Pipeline transport Not elsewhere specified
bunkers
Source: Eurostat, (Complete Energy Balance, 2021)5
Contribution of European measures to lower TTW emissions in transport by 2030 largely rely
on efficiency improvements and renewable fuels
Projections of EU-27 passenger car fleet by power train Impact of EU road transport measures on TTW emissions
300 1.000
Millions
ICEVs
PHEVs
900
BEVs
250
800
Road transport TTW emissions in EU-27 [MtCO₂/a]
Total passenger car registrations in EU-27
700
200
600
150 500
400
100
300
200
50
100
0 0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030New passenger car registrations: Case Germany
100,0%
92,8%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0% 6,7%
0,6%
0,0%
2017 2018 2019 2020
ICEVs BEVs APVs
Source: ACEA (2018-2021): Statistics - Alternative fuel vehicle registrations
APV = includes natural gas vehicles (NGV), LPG-fueled vehicles and ethanol (E85) vehiclesSecond hand market: case Germany. EVs in the used car segment essential
for the accelerated uptake of EVs in the market.
100,0% 98,8%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,3% 0,9%
0,0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ICEVs BEVs APVs
Source: KBA (2015-2020), Besitzumschreibungen von Kraftfahrzeugen und Kraftfahrzeuganhängern
APV = includes natural gas vehicles (NGV), LPG-fueled vehicles and ethanol (E85) vehiclesFrance | Average budgets of various income groups for new car purchase
(sales prices June 2021) (5 income groups: Q1: 20% lowest income to Q5: 20% highest income group)
Q5
Renault Zoe Volkswagen ID.3 Tesla Model 3
(BEV) (BEV) (BEV)
Q4
Q3
Volkswagen Polo
(ICEV)
Q2
Renault Clio
(ICEV)
Q1
0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000
Available budget for new car purchase on basis of Eurostat household income data and the share of mobility expensesGermany | Average budgets of various income groups for new car purchase
(sales prices June 2021) (5 income groups: Q1: 20% lowest income to Q5: 20% highest income group)
Q5
Renault Zoe Volkswagen ID.3 Tesla Model 3
(BEV) (BEV) (BEV)
Q4
Volkswagen Polo
(ICEV)
Q3
Renault Clio
(ICEV)
Q2
Q1
0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000
Available budget for new car purchase on basis of Eurostat household income data and the share of mobility expensesHungary | Average budgets of various income groups for new car purchase
(sales prices June 2021) (5 income groups: Q1: 20% lowest income to Q5: 20% highest income group)
Q5
Renault Clio Volkswagen Polo Renault Zoe Volkswagen ID.3 Tesla Model 3
(ICEV) (ICEV) (BEV) (BEV) (BEV)
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000
Available budget for new car purchase on basis of Eurostat household income data and the share of mobility expensesCase for Hungary: Average budgets of various income groups for new car purchase
(sales prices June 2021) (5 income groups: Q1: 20% lowest income to Q5: 20% highest income group)
Q5
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000
Available budget for new car purchase on basis of Eurostat household income data and the share of mobility expensesComparing total cost of ownership – for the 1st 5 years – in a West-European country
Example of a VW model : Golf lower in cost than ID.3
ICEV: VW Golf BEV: VW ID.3
€ 30.000
€ 26,287
€ 25.000 € 24,319
€ 20.000
€ 17,313
€ 15.000
€ 10.000
€ 5.000
€0
-€ 5.000
Assumptions:
• Vehicles purchase costs based on
June 2021 prices
• Total cost of ownership calculated for
a 5 years period -€ 10.000
• Based on annual distance driven of Depreciation Vehicle VAT Purchase subsidy (government) Manufacturer subsidy
12,000 km/a Taxes Maintenance Maintenance VAT Insurance
• Charging: at home
Insurance VAT Energy costs excl. taxes Energy excise taxes Energy VATComparing total cost of ownership – for the 1st 5 years – in a Central-European country
Example of Renault: Zoe 1,5 times more expensive than its ICEV-equivalent Clio
ICEV: Renault Clio BEV: Renault Zoe
€ 30.000
€ 25,078
€ 25.000
€ 20.000
€ 16,784
€ 15.000
€ 10.000
€ 5.000
€0
-€ 5.000
Assumptions:
• Vehicles purchase costs based on
June 2021 prices
• Total cost of ownership calcualted for
a 5 years period -€ 10.000
• Based on annual distance driven of Depreciation Vehicle VAT Purchase subsidy (government) Manufacturer subsidy
12,000 km/a Taxes Maintenance Maintenance VAT Insurance
• Charging: at home
Insurance VAT Energy costs excl. taxes Energy excise taxes Energy VATIn reflection
• A substantial amount of public funding is spent on stimulating consumers to buy an
electric vehicle.
• In our analysis we see amounts of €6000,- over a 5 years period of time. This would
equal a fuel subsidy of approx. €1,5 a liter (gasoline).
• Just imagine this budget is used to cover the extra costs to shift to the use of 100% low
carbon fuels.
• (For instance, in the Netherlands we know the extra costs for renewable fuels are in
the range of 0,50 cent a liter)
• Such an amount of subsidy would cover for the extra costs of 100% renewable fuels
for 15 years (on basis of 12.000 km a year)
• With the same amount of support a significant climate reduction can be realised.
• It is not that we should spend this money in this way, but it makes clear we have more
options for green mobility.
• Equal treatment of options from the perspecive of climate reductions could mean to
have any car driver on board in the sustainable mobility transitionYou can also read
