General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
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Methodology and Weighting / RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 25th – 30th January 2020. / A random digit dial (RDD) method is used, with a mixture of mobile and landline sample, to ensure a random selection process of households to be included with 98% coverage – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. / Interviews are conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. / A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted in the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two. / Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each respondent is to actually go and vote, as well as whether or not they voted in the last general election. / In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO. 2
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Fine Gael 21% -2 Fianna Fáil 24% -2 Sinn Féin 24% +5 Green 7% -1 Labour 5% +1 Ind. Candidates Social Solidarity- Other Democrats Aontú PBP Parties Undecided Voters 8% 12% -2 3% = 2% +1 1% -1 1% +1 4
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020 Nov 24th If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) 2016 Feb Election 2nd (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Oct Jan 32% 30% 27th 26th 26% 26% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 23% 21% 19% 17% 17% 16% 14% 14% 12% 11% 11% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Fine Fianna Sinn Ind. Solidarity Social Gael Fáil Féin Candidate Labour -PBP Democrats Green Aontú 21% 24% 24% 12% 5% 1% 3% 7% 2% Other Parties 1% 5
Party 1st Preference Vote Intention X Demographics If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error. The results should therefore be treated with caution February 2020 Gender Age Social Class Region Rest of Conn/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster Munster Ulster Fianna Fáil 24% 24% 24% 18% 19% 32% 22% 23% 48% 19% 26% 27% 23% Sinn Fein 24% 27% 20% 35% 29% 11% 19% 29% 11% 27% 20% 21% 29% Fine Gael 21% 20% 22% 15% 18% 27% 22% 18% 32% 19% 25% 18% 20% Independents 12% 11% 13% 8% 14% 13% 12% 14% 4% 9% 8% 16% 18% The Green Party 7% 5% 10% 12% 7% 5% 9% 6% 4% 14% 5% 6% 2% Labour 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 0 5% 6% 7% 1% Social Democrats 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 3% 2% 0 3% 4% 0 4% Aontú 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0
First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) Leo Varadkar calls 35% Confidence and Leo Varadkar General Election supply agreement becomes leader of reached FG and Taoiseach 30% Fine Gael 25% Fianna Fáil 24% 21% 20% Independent 15% Sinn Féin 12% Labour 10% Solidarity-PBP Green Party 7% Social Democrats 5% 5% 3% Renua 2% Aontú 0% 1% Nov-16 Mar '18 May '18 Mar '19 May '19 Sept '19 Jul-16 Oct-16 Nov '17 Jan '18 Nov '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 GE 2016 Sep-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-16 May-17 July '17 Oct '17 Oct '18 Oct '19 Mar-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Sep '17 Feb '18 Apr '18 Sep '18 Feb '19 Feb '20 Nov '19 Apr '19 Other 7
First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2020 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 40% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 35% Fine Gael 30% 25% Labour 24% Fianna Fáil 20% 21% Sinn Féin Independent 15% Solidarity-PBP Ind Alliance 12% 10% Green Party Social Democrats 7% 5% Renua 5% 3% Aontú 2% 0% 1% Other Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 8
First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2020 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 45% Fianna Fáil 40% 35% 30% Fine Gael Labour 25% 24% Independent 20% 21% Sinn Féin Ind Alliance 15% Solidarity-PBP 12% Green Party 10% Social Democrats 7% 5% 5% Renua 3% Aontú 2% 0% 1% Other Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 9
Preferred Coalitions
What Coalition do Voters Want to See – Feb 2020 Q. It is likely that a coalition of parties will be required to form a government after the next election. Can you tell me which of the following possible coalition you think will be best for Ireland? (Base: All likely voters, n = 813) Lead Preferred Coalition Party Junior Partner/s Independents/ Others 22% Would like to see party in Gov formation Independents/ Others 21% 17% 48% 17% 38% Independents/ Others 9% 3% 37% None of these / Don’t Know 11% 11
Why are Voters Moving to Sinn Féin?
First Preference Vote Intention – Sinn Fein Q.4 Regardless of whom you would give your first preference vote to, which party, if any, do you think is best equipped to manage the following areas over the next 5 years? (Base:Results Note: All Irishon Adults likely toofvote sub sample the aged 18+) are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error. population The results should therefore be treated with caution Nov 24th Jan 26th Feb 2nd 35% 35% 29% 29% 29% 27% 27% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster
Reasons for moving to Sinn Féin Q. Why are you thinking that you will give that party a first preference vote in the upcoming general election? What other reason do you have for choosing that party this time? Base: All those giving 1st preference to Sinn Féin that didn’t in GE2016 Time for real Change 39% 78% suggesting they want a Don’t want FF / FG 39% shift from the FG/FF status quo Time for a major change in They seem to be Represent Ordinary people 10% The country needs a change of the only policies on Homelessness, direction and attitude in terms Health and austerity which candidates that Housing 10% really want to of leadership. We've had FF present government are and FG at the helm for years incapable of dealing with. The change Pensions 8% and nothing is improving fact that they are refusing to Local Candidates 6% consider Sinn Fein as capable to be in Government is Their stance on the Leader - Mary Lou 4% absolutely disgusting and an pension issue I believe FF/FG have together ruined the health service and housing situation in this country. It insult to those who are Healthcare 4% seems to me FG do not care about people outside prepared to vote Sinn Fein. of Dublin or the ordinary people of Ireland. It is United Ireland 3% time to give someone else a chance. Their spokespeople in the Dáil are very impressive and seem to know what they Pearse Doherty 2% are talking about and seem to be in FF/FG have broken a lot of promises during their tenure. touch with the ordinary people not posh Other 18% I'm moved to give SF a chance at this stage. Although I detached as we have at present don't agree with their stances on some issues, Pearse Doherty strikes me as an alternative worth hearing more from. (Q.6a) 14
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