General Election Campaign Opinion Poll - February 2020 - RED C Research
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General Election Campaign Opinion Poll February 2020
Methodology and Weighting
/ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the
25th – 30th January 2020.
/ A random digit dial (RDD) method is used, with a mixture of mobile and landline sample, to
ensure a random selection process of households to be included with 98% coverage – this
also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
/ Interviews are conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
adults.
/ A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted in the
last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two.
/ Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each
respondent is to actually go and vote, as well as whether or not they voted in the last
general election.
/ In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both
ESOMAR and AIMRO.
2
General Election
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Fine Gael
21% -2
Fianna Fáil
24% -2
Sinn Féin
24% +5
Green
7% -1
Labour
5% +1
Ind. Candidates Social Solidarity- Other
Democrats Aontú PBP Parties
Undecided Voters
8% 12% -2 3% = 2% +1 1% -1 1% +1
4
First Preference Vote Intention – 2nd February 2020 Nov
24th
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) 2016 Feb
Election 2nd
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)
Oct Jan
32%
30% 27th 26th
26%
26%
24%
24%
24%
24%
24%
23%
21%
19%
17%
17%
16%
14%
14%
12%
11%
11%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Fine Fianna Sinn Ind. Solidarity Social
Gael Fáil Féin Candidate Labour -PBP Democrats Green Aontú
21% 24% 24% 12% 5% 1% 3% 7% 2%
Other Parties
1%
5
Party 1st Preference Vote Intention X Demographics
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error.
The results should therefore be treated with caution
February 2020 Gender Age Social Class Region
Rest of Conn/
Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster Munster Ulster
Fianna Fáil 24% 24% 24% 18% 19% 32% 22% 23% 48% 19% 26% 27% 23%
Sinn Fein 24% 27% 20% 35% 29% 11% 19% 29% 11% 27% 20% 21% 29%
Fine Gael 21% 20% 22% 15% 18% 27% 22% 18% 32% 19% 25% 18% 20%
Independents 12% 11% 13% 8% 14% 13% 12% 14% 4% 9% 8% 16% 18%
The Green Party 7% 5% 10% 12% 7% 5% 9% 6% 4% 14% 5% 6% 2%
Labour 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 0 5% 6% 7% 1%
Social Democrats 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 3% 2% 0 3% 4% 0 4%
Aontú 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
Leo Varadkar calls
35%
Confidence and Leo Varadkar General Election
supply agreement becomes leader of
reached FG and Taoiseach
30%
Fine Gael
25%
Fianna Fáil 24%
21%
20%
Independent
15%
Sinn Féin
12%
Labour 10%
Solidarity-PBP
Green Party
7%
Social Democrats
5% 5%
3%
Renua 2%
Aontú
0%
1%
Nov-16
Mar '18
May '18
Mar '19
May '19
Sept '19
Jul-16
Oct-16
Nov '17
Jan '18
Nov '18
Jan '19
Jan '20
GE 2016
Sep-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
May-16
May-17
July '17
Oct '17
Oct '18
Oct '19
Mar-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Sep '17
Feb '18
Apr '18
Sep '18
Feb '19
Feb '20
Nov '19
Apr '19
Other
7First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
40%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
35%
Fine Gael
30%
25%
Labour
24%
Fianna Fáil
20% 21%
Sinn Féin
Independent
15%
Solidarity-PBP
Ind Alliance 12%
10%
Green Party
Social Democrats 7%
5%
Renua 5%
3%
Aontú 2%
0% 1%
Other
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 8First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2020
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
45%
Fianna Fáil
40%
35%
30%
Fine Gael
Labour
25% 24%
Independent
20%
21%
Sinn Féin
Ind Alliance 15%
Solidarity-PBP 12%
Green Party 10%
Social Democrats
7%
5%
5%
Renua
3%
Aontú 2%
0% 1%
Other
Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split
out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua
separately 9Preferred Coalitions
What Coalition do Voters Want to See – Feb 2020
Q. It is likely that a coalition of parties will be required to form a government after the next election. Can you tell me which of the following possible coalition you think will be best for Ireland?
(Base: All likely voters, n = 813)
Lead Preferred Coalition
Party Junior Partner/s
Independents/
Others 22%
Would like to see party in Gov
formation
Independents/
Others 21%
17% 48%
Independents/
Others
17%
37%
9%
33%
3%
None of these / Don’t Know 11%
11Why are Voters Moving to Sinn Féin?
First Preference Vote Intention – Sinn Fein
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base:Results
Note: All Irishon
Adults likely toofvote
sub sample the aged 18+) are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error.
population
The results should therefore be treated with caution
Nov 24th Jan 26th Feb 2nd
35% 35%
29% 29% 29%
27% 27%
24%
22% 22% 22% 22%
21% 21%
20% 20%
19% 19% 19%
17% 17%
16% 16%
15%
13%
12% 12% 12%
11% 11% 11% 11%
10%
8%
7% 7% 7%
6%
4%
Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin ROL Munster Conn/UlsterReasons for moving to Sinn Féin
Q. Why are you thinking that you will give that party a first preference vote in the upcoming general election? What other reason do you have for choosing
that party this time?
Base: All those giving 1st preference to Sinn Féin that didn’t in GE2016
Time for real Change 39% 78% suggesting they want a
Don’t want FF / FG 39% shift from the FG/FF status quo
Time for a major change in They seem to be
Represent Ordinary people 10% The country needs a change of the only
policies on Homelessness,
direction and attitude in terms Health and austerity which candidates that
Housing 10% really want to
of leadership. We've had FF present government are
and FG at the helm for years incapable of dealing with. The change
Pensions 8%
and nothing is improving fact that they are refusing to
Local Candidates 6% consider Sinn Fein as capable
to be in Government is Their stance on the
Leader - Mary Lou 4% absolutely disgusting and an pension issue
I believe FF/FG have together ruined the health
service and housing situation in this country. It insult to those who are
Healthcare 4% seems to me FG do not care about people outside prepared to vote Sinn Fein.
of Dublin or the ordinary people of Ireland. It is
United Ireland 3% time to give someone else a chance. Their spokespeople in the Dáil are very
impressive and seem to know what they
Pearse Doherty 2% are talking about and seem to be in
FF/FG have broken a lot of promises during their tenure. touch with the ordinary people not posh
Other 18% I'm moved to give SF a chance at this stage. Although I detached as we have at present
don't agree with their stances on some issues, Pearse
Doherty strikes me as an alternative worth hearing more
from. (Q.6a)
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