General Election Opinion Poll - 31st May 2015
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General Election Opinion Poll 31st May 2015
Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,006 adults aged 18+ by telephone
between the 25th – 27th May 2015.
A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process
of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are
covered.
Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other
half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of
the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and
those with both a landline and a mobile.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the
profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the
current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the
actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.
Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10
point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are
included as being those who will actually go and vote.
In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by
both ESOMAR and AIMRO.
Government Gains on Back of Same Sex Marriage Poll Fine Gael and Labour make the gains in this month’s poll, a direct result of steep decline in support for Independent candidates. Fine Gael secure 28% of the vote, up 3% this month, and obtain the best level of support seen since September last year. Labour secure 10% of the first preference vote, also up 3% from last month, and the second time they have reached this level in the past 3 months. In a potential dress rehearsal for a General Election the main parties have made these gains following widespread media coverage during the referendum campaign, while support for Independent candidates who receive far less coverage, tumbles down 6% in just one month. For Fine Gael it has been a good year so far, with a relatively consistent upward trend in support. This appears to be driven by a return of past voters back to the party. In Jan this year just 57% of those who voted for Fine Gael in 2011 said they would do so in an election tomorrow, that figure now has risen to a much more respectable 68%. Labours gains are not based so strongly on returning voters, with only 40% of those that voted or the party in 2011, suggesting they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Rather it appears they are simply doing a slightly better job of attracting small numbers from new first time voters and those who voted for other parties last time around. Fianna Fail does not appear to have had the disastrous poll that many might have expected following the resignation of the high profile Avril Power. Support for the party remains steady at 19%. However, in our poll for the referendum two weeks ago we did ask some vote intention questions to run the analyse by, and here it appeared that Fianna Fail had finally made gains during the referendum campaign. As such it could well be that gains made during the campaign and any bounce from the by election win in Carlow Kilkenny have simply been cancelled out by event since then. Sinn Fein meanwhile sees support fall back slightly but remain in the low 20% area that they have generally been registering for some months now.
First Preference Vote Intention – May 2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first
preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
Fine Gael
28% +3
Labour
10% +2
Fianna Fail
19% =
Sinn Fein
21% -1
Independent/
Other
22% -4
Undecided Voters
12% -5First Preference Vote Intention – May 2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first
preference vote to? (showing impact of past vote weighting, and likely voter filters)
(Base: All adults 18+)
CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures Impact of Likely Voters Excluding 2011 Election
Past vote Undecided Results
weighting
% % % % %
Fine Gael 25 24 25 28 36
Labour 7 8 8 10 19
Fianna Fáil 17 16 17 19 17
Sinn Féin 19 19 19 21 10
Independent candidates 15 15 16 18 13
Green Party 2 2 2 3 2
Renua 1 1 1 1 n/a
Socialist Party - - - - 1
Other Party * 1 * * 1
Undecided 14 14 12First Preference Vote Intention – Jan 2014 – May 2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your
first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
General election 2011
Jan 2015
Feb 2015
March 2015 Split;
April 2015 Ind – 18%
0.4
36%
May 2015 Green – 3%
Renua – 1%
0.35
30%
28%
28%
28%
27%
0.3
26%
25%
24%
24%
22%
22%
0.25
21%
21%
20%
19%
19%
19%
19%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
0.2
0.15
10%
10%
10%
9%
8%
0.1
7%
0.05
0
Fianna Fail Independent/
Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Other
28% 10% 19% 21% 22%First Preference Vote Intention – 2011-2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give
your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
45%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
40%
Fine Gael 35%
30%
28%
25%
Labour 20% 21%
Fianna Fáil 19%
15%
Independent/
Other
Sinn Féin
10% 10%
5%
Green Party 3%
0%First Preference Vote Intention – 2007 to 2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give
your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
45%
Fianna Fáil 40%
35%
30%
28%
25%
Fine Gael
20% 21%
19%
Labour 15%
Independent/
Other
10% 10%
Sinn Féin
Green Party 5%
3%
PDs
0%First Preference Vote Intention – 2007 to 2015
If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give
your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)
(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
45%
Fianna Fáil 40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
19%
15%
10%
5%
0%Lessons for Pollsters from Same Sex Marriage Referendum The Same Sex Marriage referendum was passed by a significant majority, 62% voted in favour of the change to the constitution and 38% voted against. So is this a great victory for the pollsters, who all predicted a majority victory? No it certainly isn't. In fact all the pollsters (including RED C) using standard polling techniques were out by at least 7% in their prediction of the proportion of people who would vote yes. In every case they over predicted the Yes vote and under predicted the No vote. Final Poll Results (Excl. D/K’s) Yes No Sample Dates RED C /Sunday Business Post* (did not reallocate D/K’s evenly, rather suggested they would ALL 69% 31% 1009 11-13 May vote NO) Millward Brown/ The Sunday Independent 69% 31% 994 2-15 May B & A/ The Sunday Times 71% 29% 927 1-11 May Ipsos MORI/ The Irish Times 70% 30% 1200 13-14 May However, RED C and The Sunday Business Post, wary of possible error in the topline referendum polling due to Shy No voters, took our analysis further. Using a Wisdom of Crowd approach in an effort to get behind issues seen both in the run up to this referendum and learnt from past referendums, RED C successfully predicted the result in the last poll before the election with 100% accuracy.
Lessons for Pollsters from Same Sex Marriage Referendum The rationale behind our analyses was twofold. Firstly, in the past we have seen that most of those telling us they were undecided at referenda, ended up voting No. If you are not convinced of the arguments to vote to change the constitution, keeping the status quo and voting No was a far more likely outcome for your vote. Secondly, this referendum also raised the possibility that there were “Shy No” voters? The polls in the recent UK election once again showed us it is important to evaluate the possibility that some voters are avoiding telling us exactly how they feel, particularly if they are somewhat concerned about admitting to voting for one side or another. In this campaign the No side have not been strongly represented, with no political party on the side of the No camp, and the media firmly in the Yes camp. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if voters were “shy” about telling us they plan to vote No. This is why in our view it is safer to assume that those claiming to be undecided are more likely to vote No. In our polls running up to the referendum we have also seen that many voters claiming that they will vote Yes do still have reservations about some of the claims being made by the No camp. To get behind this for our final poll, we tried a different exercise, by testing a Wisdom of the Crowd approach to polling. As well as asking how our representative sample of voters will vote themselves, we also asked them what they thought the final result might be. This aims to take into account the conversations that voters are having with family and friends about the topic, and how they see people voting on Election Day. Once the 1% of don't knows were excluded, this analysis predicted the final result with 100% accuracy! Suggesting that there was indeed a "shy No" voter effect in the standard poll analysis. So what of the standard polling? Despite the error across most polling companies using only standard techniques, unlike in the recent UK general elections, no one is calling for an investigation into polling here in Ireland. The main reason is that the polls generally told the story that the referendum would be passed, and so no one is complaining.
Lessons for Pollsters from Same Sex Marriage Referendum But let’s put this into context. The only reason the pollsters have got away with it on this occasion is because the error didn't have a material effect on the result. If the vote had been lot closer a 7% error could well have made the difference between the vote being won or lost. In fact the UK polling companies’ worse party prediction was just 4% away from the actual result, so the reality is that they predicted the UK election significantly better than polling companies here predicted the result of this referendum. This once again underlines the importance of RED C’s and The Sunday Business Post efforts to constantly review how we analyse the topline results we get from our polls. Likelihood to vote remains an important feature. Many of the polls final results showed high levels of undecided voters. But many of these voters were never going to get to the polling booth. The reallocation of undecided voters, simply by suggesting they will vote the same as those who are decided is again shown to be a blunt analysis. In this case almost all undecided voters in the pre-referendum polls who were likely to vote, appear to have ended up voting No. Simply showing the result excluding undecided doesn't take account of this kind of movement. Finally, ignoring the possibility that shy voters exist, has once again been shown to be a mistake, and one that the industry needs to consider carefully as we move towards another general election. The learnings for us as pollsters are that we need to constantly question and get behind the topline claimed behaviour of voters, to ensure we are doing everything we can to deliver clear insight into how they plan to behave. Predicting elections is not an easy business, and on another day we may not have been so fortunate that our analysis to get behind shy voters worked so well. But the most important thing is that we continue to try different techniques to deliver the best insight we can.
Perceived Resulting Impact of ‘Yes Vote’ I voted Yes
I voted No
% Believe to
As a result of the ‘Yes Vote… be correct
Clergy are obliged to perform 27
same sex marriage 27 Perceived impact of the
‘yes’ vote is similar
Same sex marriage will be 98 among those voting both
protected by the constitution yes or no.
84
It will be will be easier for
couples in a same-sex marriage 50
to adopt children 53 However it is clear that
those voting no are
Regardless of the YES vote, the significantly less likely to
surrogacy rights for both same- 75
sex and heterosexual couples believe that surrogacy
44
will not change rights will not change.
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