Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic - Trend Survey Results "2020 Fall Edition"
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Keynote for the Amadeus Executive Round Table “Fresh Start of the International Mobility & Travel Industry”. Manuel Wehner, online, 27 January 2021 Leisure Travel Behavior in Times of the Corona Pandemic - Trend Survey Results “2020 Fall Edition” Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences (Frankfurt UAS) in cooperation with Amadeus Germany GmbH Fachbereich 3 Wirtschaft und Recht Page 1 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Introduction Manuel Wehner, M.Sc. (TUM) Managing Director IAT & Lecturer, Frankfurt UAS 2018 – 2020: Master’s in Management & Technology, Technical Univ. of Munich (TUM) Speaker 2015 – 2017: Project Manager Innovation, Fraport AG 2011 – 2015: Dual Bachelor‘s in Aviation Management, Fraport AG and Frankfurt UAS m.wehner@fb3.fra-uas.de Institute for Aviation and Tourism (IAT) of Frankfurt UAS Practice-oriented research institute incl. a specialized student consultancy Institute Current focus: Strategic realignment of the aviation and tourism industries Established in November 2020 www.frankfurt-university.de/iat, www.linkedin.com/companies/fra-iat Page 2 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 3 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
While infections are rising again, the roll-out of vaccines has started – I. How does this affect travel behavior? Source: www.schengenvisainfo.com Source: www.sfchronicle.com “ With the availability of Corona vaccines as silver lining for the industry, two key questions need to be answered now: 1. How can travel demand be increased Source: www.bbc.com during the vaccination roll-out? 2. How should travelling look like after “ successful vaccination programs? Source: www.bbc.com Source: www.dw.com Page 4 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Third trend survey of Amadeus and IAT during the pandemic – I. Questions according to the current travel issues Overview on survey and participants: Age groups n=536 • The IAT has conducted a third online survey on private travel 13% 18 - 24 behavior with 25 questions in cooperation with Amadeus 32% Germany GmbH 19% 25 - 34 • German and English questionnaires; 536 respondents, period: 35 - 50 11 Jan 2021 until 20 Jan 2021 36% > 51 • The participants are predominantly from the DACH** region and from all age groups n=525 • Shared via different digital channels, also by the help of Place of residence - Condor Flugdienst GmbH 18% - House of Logistics and Mobility (HOLM) GmbH DACH • Results of the first survey: Rest of Europe [German] https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trendumfrage-juli-2020 Asia • Results of the second survey: Other [English] https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trend-survey-october- 82% 2020 [German] https://amadeus.com/de/insights/blog/trend-umfrage-oktober- *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) 2020 ** DACH = Germany, Austria, and Switzerland Page 5 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 6 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
1. Stabilization since fall: Most people do not believe that normal travelling will be possible before 2022 Summer survey (July 2020): When will travelling like before be possible again? • End of 1st lockdown, recovery period led to optimism 50% • Travelling as before would be possible in 2021 40% 30% Fall survey (October 2020): 20% • Start of the 2nd infection wave, negative forecasts 10% • Outlook more pessimistic: No travelling before 2022 0% Already 2021 2022 After 2022 No estimation Winter survey (January 2021): traveling as before • 2nd lockdown still ongoing, vaccinations in roll-out Summer survey (n=275*) Fall survey (n=557*) Winter survey (n=536*) • Outlook stabilized: No travelling before 2022 Correlation Correlation People with a pessimistic outlook are more likely to be People who flew during the pandemic are more likely concerned about their health and the one of others. to have an optimistic outlook. Slide 21 Slide 22 *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 7 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
1. Concerns about quarantine and governmental travel warnings are the main factors that affected travel behavior in 2020 Reasons impacting travel behavior in 2020 Fall survey (n=668*) Winter survey (n=536*) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Concern about Governmental travel Fear of potentially Fear of infection / Cancellation through Currently no Concern about non- Other** possible quarantine warnings infecting others hygiene conditions in a travel service connection to refundable destination provider preferred cancellations destination Concerns about possible quarantine impact the travel decision even Cancellations and no available Correlation more, compared to the fall survey. Further important reasons are connection have a higher impact on governmental travel warnings and concerns about infecting others. travel behavior for people with a *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) higher travel budget. Slide 23 ** e.g. restrictions at destination, less budget for travelling, no holiday feeling, social responsibility, work-related restrictions, increased flight prices, bureaucracy Page 8 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
1. Governmental travel warnings are generally well percieved – However, low level of predictability is criticized. Trustworthiness n=532* Communication n=534* Better predictability of 27% travel warnings should be 24% the focus in order to ease 48% 43% the planning process of travellers. 28% 31% This was mentioned often Very good Rather good Neutral Rather bad Very bad Very good Rather good Neutral Rather bad Very bad in the comment section of the 2nd survey. Relevance n=533* Predictability n=533* Participants of the DACH region rate 23% 24% Correlation 44% trustworthiness, communication and 42% relevance of governmental travel warnings better than 35% 33% participants from other countries. Very good Rather good Neutral Rather bad Very bad Very good Rather good Neutral Rather bad Very bad Slide 24 *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 9 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 10 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Stabilized acceptance for digital solutions compared to the 2nd survey; 2. The adoption rate of required apps increased since then n=536* n=536* Effect of touchless travel options on the Willingness to upload biometric data travel decision into an app 5% 13% 12% 57% 38% 21% 54% Very positive Positive None Negative Already using High willigness Not sure No willigness For more than half of the participants, additional 66% would upload their biometric data or do so touchless travel options would impact their travel already; up to 87% could be reached if undecided decision positively. people are convinced. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 11 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
2. Travellers are more prone to using biometric data in processes where it is already common practice Confidence of using biometric data or health data during different processes n=536* Boarding an aircraft Check-in at the hotel Very confident Visiting resorts or going on a cruise Rather confident Indifferent Renting a car Rather not confident Entering an event or fair Not confident at all Visiting restaurants or shopping malls 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Travellers are less confident sharing their data for potential new use cases, such as entering events and fairs or at shopping mall and restaurant visits. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 12 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
2. Two thirds would consider flying as before the crisis if travel corridors exist and negative COVID-19 tests pre-flight would be mandatory n=536* n=536* Flying as before the crisis Flying as before the crisis Both options are if a travel corridor exists? if all passengers are tested more attractive to negative? travellers, who 11% expect to travel as 9% Correlation before sooner. 23% 21% Still, the majority 67% 72% of pessimistic travellers could be convinced to board an aircraft Yes Not sure No Yes Not sure No again. Slide 25 As quarantine concerns are the most If everyone on the aircraft is tested relevant factor for not travelling, travel negative right before the flight, 72% of corridors could be a key solution. travellers would consider flying as before the crisis. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 13 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 14 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
3. More than 80% of the participants want to be vaccinated; 53% even want to be vaccinated as soon as possible n=523* More than half of the participants How will you react when a Corona vaccine becomes available for you? want to be vaccinated as soon as possible. 13% Another third wants to be vaccinated as well, but later once a vaccine is proven, fully certified 53% and widely available. 34% The fear of infection has a higher impact on those who want to be vaccinated as early as possible. Correlation Concerns about quarantine prevent those who want to be vaccinated Already vaccined Quick or preferrential vaccination later more likely from travelling. Later vaccination Don't currently want to be vaccinated Slide 26 *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 15 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
3. After being vaccinated, many expect exemptions from quarantine rules; masks and physical distancing are less important n=536 An exemption from Expected privileges after being vaccinated 70% quarantine rules is 60% the most expected 50% privilege regarding 40% vaccines. 30% 20% 35% of the 10% participants stated 0% that there should not I should not have Exemption from Exemption from No need to be Ability to enter Exemption from Exemption from be any privileges. any privileges quarantine rules entry restrictions tested crowded areas mask wearing physical requirements distancing Correlation Participants of the DACH region expect less privileges after vaccination than participants from other countries. Slide 27 *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 16 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 17 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
4. The overall service experience in the pandemic is considered positive; including hygienic concepts, cancellation and refunding policies Travellers have an overall Service experience of service providers while travelling positive experience with service providers along Hotel resorts (n=342*) the travel journey. Railway companies do not AirBnB or private flats/houses (n=210*) perform as well as hotels, Negative AirBnB and airlines. Airlines (n=313*) Rather negative Rather positive Positive Experiences with Car rental companies (n=170*) Correlation AirBnB/private homes, car rental and railway were Railway companies (n=239*) more positive for those with a higher travel budget. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Slide 28 *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) Page 18 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Thank you very much for your attention! Page 19 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 20 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. People who expect a later return to normal travel behavior are more likely to be concerned about their health and the health of others n=432* Correlation between expected return to normal travel behavior and fear of infection 60% 40% 20% 0% Fear of corona infection / hygiene conditions in the destination country Fear of potentially infecting others (family, friends, colleagues, etc.) I already travel as before** 2021 2022 After 2022 p=0.00 Highly significant*** ** Those who travel as before the crisis are not concerned about Corona infection *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) ***Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 21 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. People who flew during the pandemic are more likely to have an optimistic outlook n=431* Correlation between expected return to normal travel behavior and number of trips in 2020 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% I already travel as before 2021 2022 After 2022 p=0.00 Highly significant** 0 1 to 3 4 to 6 6-10 >10 The higher the number of trips in 2020, the more likely an earlier return of the normal travel behavior is expected. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 22 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. Cancellations and no available connection have a higher impact on travel behavior for travellers with a higher budget Correlation between travel budget and n=532* Correlation between travel budget and n=532* reason for not travelling number of leisure trips in 2020 100% 50% 80% 40% 60% 30% 40% 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% Low** Average Rather high Very high Low** Average Rather high Very high No connection Cancellation through travel service provider 0 1 to 3 4 to 6 p=0.00 Highly significant*** p=0.00 Highly significant*** p=0.00 Highly significant*** People with a higher travel budget were significantly On average, people with a higher travel budget took more affected by a cancellations and lack of significantly more trips in 2020 on average. connectivity. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) ** Includes the answer categories "Very low" and "Low” **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 23 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. Participants of the DACH region rate governmental travel warnings better than participants from other countries Correlation between place of origin and rating of the n=521* Correlation between place of origin and rating of the n=522* trustworthiness of travel warnings relevance of travel warnings 100% 100% Very good Very good Rather good Rather good 50% Neutral 50% Neutral Rather bad Rather bad Very Bad 0% Very Bad 0% Other participants DACH-participants Other participants DACH-participants p=0.03 Highly significant** p=0.04 Significant** Correlation between place of origin and rating of the n=523* communication of travel warnings 100% Very good There is no significant correlation between place of Rather good residence and the assessment of the predictability Neutral 50% of travel warnings. Rather bad Very Bad 0% Other participants DACH-participants p=0.03 Significant** *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 24 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. The majority of pessimistic travellers could be convinced to board an aircraft again once travel corridors or fully tested flights are offered n=423* n=423* Correlation between expected return Correlation between expected return to normal travel and readiness to fly as normal to normal travel and readiness to fly as normal with travel corridors with negatively tested flight 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% I already travel 2021 2022 After 2022 I already travel 2021 2022 After 2022 as before as before Yes, I would consider flying I am not sure No, I would not consider flying Yes, I would consider flyingp=0.00 I amHighly significant*** not sure No, I would not consider flying p=0.00 Highly significant** p=0.00 Highly significant** While travel corridors and fully tested flights are more attractive to optimistic participants, still more than 60% of those expecting a return to normal in 2022 or later could be convinced to consider flying again. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 25 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. Those who want to be vaccinated quickly are more likely to fear an infection, others are more likely affected by quarantine concerns n=434* Correlation between preferred time of vaccination and 80% reason for changed travel behavior 60% 40% 20% 0% Concern about Governmental travel Fear of potentially Fear of corona Cancellation through Currently no Concern about non- possible quarantine warnings infecting others infection / hygiene a travel service connection to refundable on arrival or return (family, friends, conditions in the provider (airline, trip preferred destination cancellations colleagues, etc.) destination country maker, etc.) available p=0.04 significant** p=0.00 highly significant** I want to be vaccinated as soon as possible (after medical personnel groups at risk) I want to be vaccinated stress-free once a vaccine is proven, fully certified and widely available *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 26 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. Participants of the DACH region seem to expect less privileges after vaccination than participants from other countries n=522* Correlation between place of origin and expectations of privileges after vaccination 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% I should not have any Exemption from Exemption from No need to be tested Ability to enter Exemption from Exemption from of such privileges quarantine rules entry restrictions crowded areas mask wearing physical distancing requirements Other participants DACH-participants p=0.09 Slightly significant** p=0.00 Highly significant** Especially the exemptions from mask wearing requirements and physical distancing are significantly less important. *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 27 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
A. The experiences with AirBnB and private flats, car rental and railway were more positive for those with a higher travel budget Correlation between travel budget and n=210* n=521* n=170* Correlation between travel budget and experience with AirBnB or private flats/houses experience with car rental companies Very high Very high Rather high Rather high Average Average Low** Low** 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Negatively Rather Negatively Rather positively Positively Negatively Rather Negatively Rather positively Positively p=0.11** p=0.08 Slightly significant*** Correlation between travel budget and n=293* experience with railway companies Very high Rather high Curiously, there seems to be no correlation for Average airlines (p=0.31***) and hotels (p=0.28***). Low** 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Negatively Rather Negatively Rather positively Positively p=0.06 Slightly significant*** *Different sample sizes (n) result from non-mandatory questions/bucket options (eg. “no opinion“) ** Includes the answer categories "Very low" and "Low” **Based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient Page 28 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
Agenda I. Objective, method and demography II. Results of the survey 1. Leisure travel behavior 2. Touchless travel 3. Vaccination 4. Travel experience III. Back-up detail evaluation A. Correlations B. Other survey findings Page 29 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The majority of participants travel mainly or only for leisure reasons Do you travel more for leisure or for business purposes (# of participants)? (n = 536) 1 90 146 Leisure only Mainly leisure Balanced 111 Mainly business Business only 188 Page 30 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. Rapid testing, regular updates about the trip and own vaccination are what the participants think will bring back travelling If the Corona case numbers stay the same as they are currently, what factors would need to be fulfilled for you to travel again (# of participants)? (n = 536) Rapid test results in country of origin and destination 366 Contactless travel can be guaranteed 180 Regular updates about current changes relevant to my trip 264 Travel corridorsare createdand an infection while flying is nearly impossible 244 I am vaccinated 264 Largely vaccinated population in the destination country 213 I will not travel as I normally would until the pandemic is over 88 Other (please specify) 60 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Page 31 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The participants are generally interested in additional services for safe travelling… In an effort to lower your risk of infection, how interested would you be in the following services (# of participants)? 300 284 250 207 204 200 170 179 179 182 148 162 147 132 150 112 110 100 85 100 84 56 66 40 33 50 0 Lounge access / Rapid testing (waiting Individual boarding Free middle seat Taxi service to the hotel Individual shuttle to the times faster result) (n=536) (n=536) (instead of using a bus) aircraft (n=536) (n=536) (n=536) Not interested Rather not interested Rather interested Very interested Page 32 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. ...and the majority would be willing to pay extra for them Would you be willing to pay extra for one or more of these services (# of participants)? (n = 536) 30 Yes, I would 182 No, I would not No response 324 Page 33 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The car was used by most participants during the pandemic; Curiously, more participants used aircraft than trains Which modes of transportation did you use during the pandemic (# of participants)? (n = 536) Airplane 248 Car 496 Long distance bus / coach 15 Public transport 288 Train 221 Other (please specify) 43 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Page 34 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The attractiveness of the connection is more important to travellers than health-related factors What are currently the most important factors when choosing your mode of transportation (# of participants)? (n = 536) Attractiveness of the connection (total travel time, arrival time etc.) 361 Avoid contact / distance to other travellers 324 Convenience 309 Hygienic concept 231 Price 246 Other (please specify) 19 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Page 35 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. Participants appreciate the flexibility that is offered; Ratings for cruise operators and railway companies are relatively low How much booking flexibility do you believe is offered by the following service providers (even if you do/did not use them) (# of participants)? 250 225 222 222 238 219 197 196 200 173 136 136 143 150 119 110 100 100 99 94 84 100 78 80 73 82 72 64 63 69 45 56 48 46 38 33 40 50 26 26 0 Airlines Hotels resorts Car rental Cruise operators AirBnB / private Long distance bus Railway (n=536) (n=536) companies (n=536) apartments / / coach operators companies (n=536) houses (n=536) (n=536) (n=536) Low flexibility Rather low flexibility Moderate flexibility Rather high flexibility High flexibility Page 36 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The hygiene of airlines and hotels/vacation homes is mostly trusted; The one of public transport, buses and trains rather less To what extent do you trust the current hygienic regulations in the following means of transport or at the following places (# of participants)? 300 253 250 216 228 198190 204 194 186191 200 179180 162 143 145 145 150 129 133 100 109 85 93 100 70 69 81 71 72 64 38 48 39 46 33 35 50 29 21 22 23 3 6 13 9 2 5 5 11 5 3 2 0 Aircraft Long distance Public Trains Airport Pedestrian Hotels, Bars and (n=536) buses / coaches transport (n=536) terminals / zones / vacation homes restaurants (n=536) (n=536) train stations shopping and flats (n=536) (n=536) centers (n=536) (n=536) No trust Low trust Indifferent High trust Very high trust No response Page 37 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
B. The majority of participants believe to have an average or higher than average travel budget How big do you think your travel budget is compared to other travellers (# of participants)? (n = 536) 29 9 51 Very low Rather low 191 Average Rather high Very high 256 Page 38 Survey Results Winter Edition 2021 | Manuel Wehner, IAT Date 27.01.2021
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