Langdon/Maddox Election 2020 Update - Forum - The Hawthorn Group
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Election 2020 Update
Langdon/Maddox
Forum
David Bates & John Ashford
October 15th, 2020
19 Days Until Election Day 2020
Early Voting Started September 4th, 41 Days Ago
More Than 14 Million Votes Have Been Cast
Agenda I. The Environment • Drivers • Distractions • Dynamics • Data II. The Races • Presidential • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governors and State Legislatures
Drivers • Pandemic • Recession • Schools • Racial Conflict/Riots • Weather • Supreme Court Nomination • Washington Gridlock
Distractions • President’s Taxes • Presidential Debate • President’s Health • GOP/Dem Funding • Minority Support for Dems • Religious Support for GOP • Down-ballot Scandals • President’s Rallies
Dynamics – “Known Unknowns”
• COVID Results
• Schools/Football
• COVID Vaccine
• Voting Process/Sites/Weather/Count
• Turnout
• Early Voting
• Straight Tickets
• Transfer of Power Concerns
• Deadlocked Electoral College
Electoral Gridlock – Decided by NEW U.S. House
CURRENT Control of U.S. House Delegations
Republicans – 26
Democrats – 23
Split – 1
Data • Presidential Favorability • Presidential Job Approval • Presidential Voter Preference • Money Raised • Advertising Placements • Campaign Activity • Voter Registration/Early Voting • Late/Outlier Polls
Bring Down Title 2020 Election Data
President Trump Favorable/Unfavorable
Latest RCP Average:
60 October 13, 2020
55 54.5%
T UnFav
50
-11.3%
45
43.2%
40 T Fav
35
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct
Trump Favorable Trump Unfavorable
Source: Real Clear PoliticsVice-President Biden Favorable/Unfavorable
Latest RCP Average:
60 October 13, 2020
55
51.2%
50 B Fav
+7.0
45
44.2%
B UnFav
40
35
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct
Biden Favorable Biden Unfavorable
Source: Real Clear PoliticsPresident Trump Job Approval in 2020
65
Latest RCP Average:
October 13, 2020
60
55 54.2%
50 -9.8
45 44.4%
40
35
1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/1/2020 4/1/2020 5/1/2020 6/1/2020 7/1/2020 8/1/2020 9/1/2020 10/1/2020
Approve Disapprove
Source: Real Clear PoliticsComparative Presidential Job Approval
October Job Approval
• Clinton ’96 – 57%
• Obama ’12 – 52%
• W. Bush ’08 – 50%
• Trump ’20 – 46%
• Carter ’80 – 37%
• H.W. Bush ’92 – 33%
Source: GallupCurrent RCP Presidential Vote Intention
42.3% 51.6%State Electoral Vote 2016
Victory = 270 Electoral Votes
12
4
3 3
CT – 7
7 10 DC – 3
4
3 10 29 DE – 3
3 16 MA – 11
MD – 10
6 5
6 20 NJ – 14
20 11 18 NH – 4
6
55 9 5 RI – 4
13
6 10 8 VT – 3
15
11
11 5 7
6 9
9 16 Trump (306) 56.9%
6
38 8 Clinton (232) 43.1%
3 29 Popular:
Trump 62,980,160 - 46.4%
4 Clinton 65,853,516 – 48.5%2020 Eight Tier One Battleground States
Iowa 2020 Battleground States
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Florida
?2020 Five Tier Two Battleground States Wisconsin 2020 Battleground States Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania R R North Carolina Iowa R Arizona Florida, plus . . . Nevada D Minnesota D New Hampshire Texas Georgia
2020 13 Battleground States – 2016 Winners
Wisconsin 2020 Battleground States
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania 10 4
10
North Carolina 16
Iowa 6 20
6 18
Arizona
Florida, plus . . .
15
11
Nevada 16
Minnesota 38
New Hampshire 29
Texas
Georgia2020 Battleground States Latest RCP Averages
Wisconsin 2020 Battleground States
Michigan +9.0
Ohio
Pennsylvania +7.2 +11.0
North Carolina +5.2
Iowa +1.2 +6.3 +7.0
Arizona
+0.6
Florida, plus . . .
+3.2
+4.4
+2.7
Nevada +0.4
Minnesota
New Hampshire +3.7
Texas
Georgia2020 Final Battleground States 10/12 Polling
Wisconsin 2020 Battleground States
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania +7.2
North Carolina
Iowa +1.2 +6.3 +7.0
Arizona
+0.6
Florida, plus . . .
+3.2
+2.7
+0.4
Georgia
+3.7Biden Leads Trump in 2020 Battlegrounds
Clinton Led Trump in 2016 Battlegrounds
Others’ 2020 Current Presidential Predictions Electoral College •NPR – 290/85/163 •The Economist – 347/191 •Nate Silver – 346/192 •Stuart Rothenberg – 319/31/188 •Larry Sabato – 290/85/163 •Charlie Cook - 290/85/163 Polling (If Election Held Today) •NBC/WSJ – 53/39 •IBD/TIPP– 51.9/43.4 •The Hill– 47/40 •CNBC– 54/41
Hawthorn Presidential Prediction TODAY
65-35 Chance
Biden Wins
(NOT that Biden will win 65% of the vote,
but today there is a 65-35 chance he will win the election)Bring Down Title U.S. Senate
Current U.S. Senate
Republican (53)
Democrat (45/2)
Dems need net 3 or 4U.S. Senate 2020 Elections
2 Republican (23)
Democrat (12)Eleven Senate Seats Are Most at Risk of Changing Parties
+3.3 +3.7
AL – Jones
AZ – McSally +5.0
CO – Gardner +4.8
GA – Purdue (1) +9.0
GA – Loeffler (2)
IA – Ernst +8.0
ME – Collins +5.2
MI – Peters +12.0 0.0
MT – Daines
1: +2.8
NC – Tillis 2: Special Elect.*
• Warnock (D) – 29.7
SC - Graham •
•
Loeffler (R) – 23.5
Collins (R) – 21.7
• Lieberman (D) – 6.0
• Tarver (D) – 2.5
Sources: Newsweek, Real Clear Politics, FiveThirtyEight • Slowinski (L) – 1.7Anti-Collins (R) in Maine
Pro-Tillis (R) in North Carolina
Anti-Graham (R) in South Carolina
Senate Races – Charlie Cook’s View
Breakdown of 2020 Senate races
10 THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT 10
7
4
3
1
Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican
Coons (DE) Peters (MI) Loeffler (GA) Sullivan (AK) McConnell (KY) Cotton (AR)
Durbin (IL) Gardner (CO) Perdue (GA) Jones (AL) Risch (ID)
Markey (MA) McSally (AZ) Ernst (IA) KS (Roberts) Cassidy (LA)
Shaheen (NH) Collins (ME) Cornyn (TX) Hyde-Smith (MS)
Smith (MN) Daines (MT) Sasse (NE)
Booker (NJ) Tillis (NC) Inhofe (OK)
NM (Udall) Graham (SC) Rounds (SD)
Merkley (OR) TN (Alexander)
Reed (RI) Moore Capito (WV)
Warner (VA) WY (Enzi)Senate Races – Charlie Cook’s View
Breakdown of 2020 Senate races
10 THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT 10
7
4
3
1
Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican
Coons (DE)
Durbin (IL)
Peters (MI)
Gardner (CO)
?
Loeffler (GA)
Perdue (GA)
Sullivan (AK)
Jones (AL)
McConnell (KY) Cotton (AR)
Risch (ID)
Markey (MA) McSally (AZ) Ernst (IA) KS (Roberts) Cassidy (LA)
Shaheen (NH)
Smith (MN)
Collins (ME)
Daines (MT)
? Cornyn (TX) Hyde-Smith (MS)
Sasse (NE)
Booker (NJ) Tillis (NC) Inhofe (OK)
NM (Udall) Graham (SC) Rounds (SD)
Merkley (OR) TN (Alexander)
Reed (RI) Moore Capito (WV)
Warner (VA) WY (Enzi)Hawthorn Senate Prediction
(Absent a Biden Landslide)
Republicans hold Senate by One SeatBring Down Title U.S. House of Representatives
116th Congress – Current US House
Current US House
Republicans (197)
2018 Republican Flip
2018 Republican Hold
Democrats (232)
2018 Democratic Flip
2018 Democratic Hold
Libertarian (1)
Amash – MI-03
Vacant (5)
Graves (GA), Hunter (CA),
Lewis (GA), Meadows (NC),
Ratcliffe (TX)Hawthorn U.S. House Prediction
Democrats Win Slightly Larger Majority
(+5 to +15 Seats)Bring Down Title Governors and State Legislatures
Current Governors
Republican (26)
Democrat (24)Governors Up in 2020
Republican (7)
Democrat (4)Cook Governor Predictions
A total of 11 governorships are up for grabs in the 2020 election, including
two open seats
Cook Political Report 2020 governor ratings
5
2
1 1 1 1
Solid Dem ocrat Likely Democrat Lean De mocra t Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republica n
DE — Carney NC — Cooper MT — Open MO – Parson NH — Sununu IN — Holcomb
WA — Inslee ND — Burgum
UT — Open
VT — Scott
WV — JusticeCook Governor Predictions, With Hawthorn Comments
A total of 11 governorships are up for grabs in the 2020 election, including
two open seats
Cook Political Report 2020 governor ratings
5
2
1 1 1
Solid Dem ocrat Likely Democrat Lean De mocra t Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republica n
DE — Carney
WA — Inslee
NC — Cooper MT — Open MO – Parson NH — Sununu
? IN — Holcomb
ND — Burgum
UT — Open
VT — Scott
WV — JusticeIn 28 states, both legislative chambers are currently controlled by the GOP, 19 by Dems
Party control of state legislatures
■ Republican-controlled ■ Democratic-controlled ■ Split Legislature ■ Non-partisan
WA
MT VT ME
ND
OR MN
NH
ID SD WI NY
WY MI
IA PA
NE
NV
OH
UT IL IN
MA
CO WV
CA
MO VA RI
KS
KY
CT
NC
TN NJ
AZ OK
NM AR DE
SC
MD
MS AL GA
TX
AK LA
FL
HI Sources: Cook Political Report.Partisan breakdown of state legislative chambers
State legislative chambers, by party (pre-2018 and current)
■ Republican-held ■ Democratic-held
65
58
40
33
Prior to 2018 Elections Current
Source: Cook Political Report. *Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is not included in these tallies as it is considered non-partisanFour GOP chambers and two Democratic chambers are considered Toss Ups in 2020
Cook Political Report ratings of 2020 state legislative chambers • Six states (AL, LA, MD, MS, NJ, and VA) are
not holding elections in either chamber in
Democrat-held seat 2020
Republican-held seat
• MI is not holding an election in its upper
chamber
10 GOP
9 GOP
FL House
8 Dem IA Senate
FL Senate
GA Senate KS Senate
CO Senate 2 Dem, 4 GOP
KS House
DE Senate GA House
IA House OH Senate
ME House
AK House NC House OH House
NV Senate
AZ House TX Senate
NV Assembly NC Senate
3 Dem AZ Senate WV Senate
OR Senate PA Senate
MI House WI Senate
OR House ME Senate PA House
MN Senate WI Assembly
WA Senate MN House TX House
NH Senate
NH House
Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss Up Lean GOP Likely GOP
Sources: Cook Political Report; Ballotpedia.Ballot Issues
• California
• Com/Indus Property Taxes
• App-Based Employees
• Consumer Privacy Act
• Florida – Minimum Wage to $15 by 2026
• Nevada – 50% Renewables by 2030
• New Mexico – Appoint PRCElection 2020 Update
Langdon/Maddox
Forum
David Bates & John Ashford
October 15th, 2020
19 Days Until Election Day 2020
Early Voting Started September 4th, 41 Days Ago
More Than 14 Million Votes Have Been CastYou can also read
