L'impatto della COVID-19 su Eurozona ed Italia: scenari - Luca Mezzomo 26 marzo 2020
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Macroeconomic Analysis L’impatto della COVID-19 su Eurozona ed Italia: scenari Luca Mezzomo 26 marzo 2020
1
The nasty special features of the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 poses special challenges to governments unseen since the 1918-19 H1N1
pandemic.
Data are unreliable. Real diffusion could
Impossible to identify infection
be 10x to 40x the officially recorded one.
based on symptoms or simple
instrumental tests
Unlike SARS or Ebola, early containment
of outbreaks is very challenging.
A very large majority of younger
Widespread silent spreading can occur
patients only experience mild
before epidemic outbreaks are
symptoms…
identified.
…but a small but significant
Large diffusion means that ICUs can be
percentage of patients require
quickly overwhelmed without a lock-out
ICU support…
of the population…
…and it spreads quickly (R>2) …which can raise the mortality rate,
especially among the elderly.2
Mitigation or suppression: is there a real choice?
Slowing down the epidemic while protecting those most at risk: home isolation of
Mitigation suspect cases or contacts, social distancing of the elderly. Problem: «hundreds
of thousands of deaths» and «health systems being overwhelmed many times
over»
The aim is to reduce the reproduction number R to3 Sources of economic impact Repression of social consumption: closure of bars, restaurants, hotels, cinemas etc. Stoppage of some or most production activity and/or retail/wholesale trade. Behavioural change: panic or precautionary saving Income loss: increase in unemployment or decrease in hours worked; sharp drop in profits. Financial disruption Threshold effects: (1) bankruptcies of solvent firms because of liquidity crisis; (2) companies replaced by competitors in foreign markets in case of prolonged shut- down Fiscal measures: more healthcare spending, automatic stabilizers, fiscal easing (which will support in the rebound) and specific measures (credit guarantees, temporary layoff assistance, temporary waiving of tax or payrolls payments) to prevent negative loops. Response is aggressive. Monetary or financial measures: provision of emergency liquidity; credit easing through bank and market channels. Central bank replaces dysfunctional markets. ESM financial support programmes in Eurozone
Very sharp contraction, but short
Lost output is
not recovered,
for instance
tourist inflows
YoY GDP growth
Intensity of contraction:
Depends on Speed of rebound:
length/intensity of Depends on fiscal and
lockdown monetary stimulus, on
the ability to prevent
negative loops in Q2,
and on residual sanitary
risks
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
Baseline Negative Previous5
Global GDP growth
Global y/y % GDP Growth vs. the no-COVID19 forecast
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
miracle Baseline Previous
Assumptions on China, y/y % GDP Growth
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
Miracle Baseline Previous6
The assumptions behind the simulated scenarios
(1) Best (2) Baseline (3) Longer (4) As in (3), plus
lockdown Q4 breakout
Suppression in most Suppression in most Suppression in most Suppression in most
advanced countries, advanced countries, advanced countries, advanced countries,
with varying but with varying severity, with varying severity, lasting until end-May.
generally low severity, lasting generally until lasting generally until end Then measures are
lasting generally until end-April. Then measures May. Then measures are relaxed and become
end-April. More are relaxed. More relaxed. More investment selective, but
investment in ICUs. investment in ICUs. Then in ICUs. Then measures reintroduced again in
Then measures are measures are made are made more Q4.
made more selective more selective. selective.
and quickly removed.
Little involvement of Significant involvement Heavy involvement of Heavy involvement of
manufacturing and of manufacturing and manufacturing and manufacturing and
construction in lock- construction in lock-out. construction in lock-out. construction in lock-out.
out (but negative Heavy restrictions on Heavy restrictions on Heavy restrictions on
impact because of commerce and services. commerce and services. commerce and services.
demand factors).
Heavy restrictions on
commerce and
services.
No significant Limited threshold effects Threshold effects restrain High risk of amplification
threshold effects restrain Q3 rebound Q3 rebound loops make suppression
unsustainable
Strong fiscal and Strong fiscal and Strong fiscal and Strong fiscal and
monetary response monetary response monetary response monetary response7
Eurozone: sizing the COVID-19 shock
Assumed impact of containment measures on economic sectors in 2020 in the three more relevant
scenarios
Agriculture, Industry Constructio Wholesale Information Financial Real estate Professiona Public Arts,
forestry and (except n and retail and and activities l, scientific administrati entertainme
fishing construction trade, communicat insurance and on, nt and
) transport, ion activities technical defence, recreation;
accommoda activities; education, other
tion and administrati human service
food service ve and health and activities;
activities support social work activities of
services activities household
Q2
Baseline 0% 13% 12% 15% 0% 3% 3% 3% 0% 24%
Longer lockdown 3% 33% 33% 46% 7% 19% 7% 33% 0% 59%
Longer lockdown and q4 brekout 3% 33% 33% 46% 7% 19% 7% 33% 0% 59%
Q3
Baseline 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 0% 5% 5% 0% 5%
Longer lockdown 0% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% 5%
Longer lockdown and q4 brekout 0% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 2% 5% 0% 5%
Q4
Baseline 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 2%
Longer lockdown 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 2%
Longer lockdown and q4 brekout 2% 16% 16% 23% 3% 10% 3% 16% 0% 29%
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo8
The economic policy response in the Eurozone
ECB EU/Eurozone Governments Government
(fiscal) (guarantees)
• Enhancement of TLTRO III • Corona Investment • Extension of automatic • Most governments are
programme, with Response Fund (37Bn) stabilisers: CIG in Italy, introducing large loan-
measures targeted to • Reassignement of Kurzarbeit in Germany guarantee schemes,
SMEs. structural funds for 25Bn etc. but also measures currently equal to 13% of
to support self- Eurozone GDP
• APP volume of net sales • ESM to offer Pandemic-
employed workers.
raised by 120Bn in 2020. focused ECCL of 2% of
Extended to CP. GDP, with s/t conditions • Tax holidays
linked to COVID • Sharp rise in healthcare
• New PEPP launched:
measures, l/t conditions spending
€750Bn in 2020, flexible
related to stability • Postponement of loan
management. Includes
GGBs. repayments
• Total commitments: 2%
• Claims on corporates
of GDP currently, but
eligible as collateral
they will rise
• Loosening of capital and significantly in coming
liquidity requirements months (we expect the
• Key policy rate already aggregate deficit to
negative rise by 355Bn)
• Different assets eligible • Issuance of COVID • Nationalisation of
for APP? Loosening of bonds? companies?
rating threshold? • Mobilisation of ESM?
Suspension of capital
keys rule?
• Extension of
counterparties?9
Eurozone: GDP growth
Eurozone y/y % GDP Growth in the four scenarios vs. the no-COVID19 forecast
5
0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3
0 0.4
1.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.7
-1.0
-5 -2.3 -0.2 -3.5
-4.7
-10 -6.9
-11.1
-15
-20
-25
-24
-30
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1
1 Miracle 2 Baseline 3 Longer lockdown 4 (3)+Q4 breakout Previous10 Italy: containment measures Since 25/2: restrictions on schools, museums, sport events and public meeting, bars and restaurants, incentives to smart working in Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardia, Veneto, Piemonte, Liguria. Fairs and exhibitions rescheduled. Since 1/3: closing of schools, theatres, clubs and cinemas, social and sport events suspended in the 3 main regions (Lombardia, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna). Since 4/3: shutdown of schools & university nationwide, sporting events behind closed doors. Since 8/3: decree to avoid any movement into and out of Lombardia and 14 provinces, unless for necessity, health or proven work reasons; closure of gyms, swimming pools, spas and wellness centres and of museums, cultural centres and ski resorts; shopping centres closed on weekends; closure of cinemas, theatres, pubs, dance schools, game rooms, discos in the entire country; civil and religious ceremonies, all organized events suspended. Since 9/3: lockdown extended to the whole country, all sporting events cancelled. Since 11/3: tightening of the lockdown, with all commercial and retail businesses except those providing essential services, like grocery stores and pharmacies, closed down. Since 22/3: individuals are forbidden to move to municipalities other than the one they live, except for work, sanitary reasons or urgence. Since 23/3: all economic activities considered as not essential were also closed, with the exception of those required to guarantee the continuity of essential production chains. The list of permitted activities is rather long (80 items), and includes first and foremost the entire food production chain, the medical-healthcare equipment and pharmaceutical chains, and several activities in the services sector. The shutdown involves around 63% of the construction sector and 68% of manufacturing. The list may be updated by decree by the Economic Development Ministry, after consulting the Finance Ministry. These measures will stay in place at least until 3 April.
11
Italy: severe GDP contraction in Q1 and Q2
Assumption: the “lockdown” will stay in place, in its present form, for two weeks, and
will be subsequently extended, in a slacker version, for the two following weeks
(effectively until nearly the end of April).
25 February - 23 March-5
Impact of Quarantine on Italy’s GDP Weight 9-22 March 6-26 April
8 March April
Agriculture, forestry, fishing 2.2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mining and quarrying 0.2% 0% 0% 55% 40%
Manufacturing 16.3% 0% 5% 70% 50%
Electricity, gas, steam, air conditioning supply 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Water supply sewerage, waste management and sanitation 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Construction 4.2% 0% 5% 65% 50%
Retail and wholesale trade 12.0% 0% 30% 75% 65%
Transport and warehouse 5.6% 7% 30% 50% 40%
Hotels, bars and restaurants 3.9% 23% 60% 90% 80%
Information and communication 3.8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Banking and finance 5.0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Real estate activities 13.5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Professional, scientific and technical activities 6.4% 0% 5% 5% 5%
Travel agencies, administrative and support service activities 3.3% 6% 20% 55% 50%
Public administration, defence 6.5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Education 4.1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Healthcare 6.0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.1% 26% 70% 100% 90%
Other service activities 3.3% 0% 5% 90% 70%
Impact on VA in the period considered 2.4% 11.2% 36.4% 29.4%
Impact on GDP in Q1 (q/q % change) 4.9%
Impact on GDP in Q2 (q/q % change) 9.0%12
Italy: policy response
Last March 16th, the Government approved EUR 25Bn spending (impact on govt
net borrowing: 20Bn ie 1.1% of GDP), as a combination of:
Additional financing of the national health system and civil protection (3.5
billion);
Employment and income support (10 bln): larger flexibility in the use of
temporary layoff schemes, support to families such as parental leave,
babysitting vouchers, allowance for self-employed workers;
Injecting liquidity into the credit system, which according to the government
could mobilize up to 340 billion in loans: suspension of loan and mortgage
installments through public funds and guarantees;
Suspension of tax payments;
Additional support to the business industries most affected (tourism,
transports, hotels and restaurants, retail).13
Italy: impact on GDP
The economy is working at 60% of its standard: each additional week of “quarantine”
in its present form, would cost 13 billion euros, i.e. 0.7% of GDP.
GDP, % change y/y, GDP, % change y/y,
quarterly data annual data
15 6
Pre-COVID19 5.3
10 Pre-COVID19 4 Post-COVID19
Post-COVID19
5 2 0.5
0.2 0.3
0 0
-5 -2
-4
-10
-6
-15
-5.9
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Dec-18
Sep-19
Dec-19
Sep-20
Dec-20
Sep-21
Dec-21
-8
2019 2020 2021
Source: ISP calculations and forecasts Source: ISP calculations and forecasts14
Italy: impact on public finance
Consequences of the shock on public finances could be more persistent than on
GDP, particularly on debt. Some form of debt-sharing at EU level is needed.
Deficit/GDP Debt/GDP
2019 2020 2021 148 146.7
0 146
-1 -1.6 144
-1.9 -2.1 142
-2 141.0
140
-2.7 138
-3
136
-4 134
134.8 134.4 134.9
-5 132
130
-6 -5.5 2019 2020 2021
Pre-COVID19 Post-COVID19 Pre-COVID19 Post-COVID19
Source: ISP calculations and forecasts Source: ISP calculations and forecastsImportanti comunicazioni Certificazione degli analisti Gli analisti che hanno redatto il presente documento dichiarano che le opinioni, previsioni o stime contenute nel documento stesso sono il risultato di un autonomo e soggettivo apprezzamento dei dati, degli elementi e delle informazioni acquisite e che nessuna parte del proprio compenso è stata, è o sarà, direttamente o indirettamente, collegata alle opinioni espresse. Il presente documento è stato preparato da Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e distribuito da Banca IMI S.p.A. Milano, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (membro del London Stock Exchange) e da Banca IMI Securities Corp (membro del NYSE e del FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si assume la piena responsabilità dei contenuti del documento. Inoltre, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si riserva il diritto di distribuire il presente documento ai propri clienti. Banca IMI S.p.A. e Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. sono entrambe società del Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e Banca IMI S.p.A. sono entrambe banche autorizzate dalla Banca d’Italia ed entrambe sono regolate dall’FCA per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento nel Regno Unito e dalla SEC per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento negli Stati Uniti. Le opinioni e stime contenute nel presente documento sono formulate con esclusivo riferimento alla data di redazione del documento e potranno essere oggetto di qualsiasi modifica senza alcun obbligo di comunicare tali modifiche a coloro ai quali tale documento sia stato in precedenza distribuito. Le informazioni e le opinioni si basano su fonti ritenute affidabili, tuttavia nessuna dichiarazione o garanzia è fornita relativamente all’accuratezza o correttezza delle stesse. Lo scopo del presente documento è esclusivamente informativo. In particolare, il presente documento non è, né intende costituire, né potrà essere interpretato, come un documento d’offerta di vendita o sottoscrizione di alcun tipo di strumento finanziario. Inoltre, non deve sostituire il giudizio proprio di chi lo riceve. Né Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. né Banca IMI S.p.A. assume alcun tipo di responsabilità derivante da danni diretti, conseguenti o indiretti determinati dall’utilizzo del materiale contenuto nel presente documento. Il presente documento potrà essere riprodotto o pubblicato esclusivamente con il nome di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e Banca IMI S.p.A.. Il presente documento è stato preparato e pubblicato esclusivamente per, ed è destinato all'uso esclusivamente da parte di, Società che abbiano un’adeguata conoscenza dei mercati finanziari, che nell’ambito della loro attività siano esposte alla volatilità dei tassi di interesse, dei cambi e dei prezzi delle materie prime e che siano finanziariamente in grado di valutare autonomamente i rischi. Tale documento, pertanto, potrebbe non essere adatto a tutti gli investitori e i destinatari sono invitati a chiedere il parere del proprio gestore/consulente per qualsiasi necessità di chiarimento circa il contenuto dello stesso. Per i soggetti residenti nel Regno Unito: il presente documento non potrà essere distribuito, consegnato o trasmesso nel Regno Unito a nessuno dei soggetti rientranti nella definizione di “private customers” così come definiti dalla disciplina dell’FCA. Per i soggetti di diritto statunitense: il presente documento può essere distribuito negli Stati Uniti solo ai soggetti definiti ‘Major US Institutional Investors’ come definito dalla SEC Rule 15a-6. Per effettuare operazioni mobiliari relative a qualsiasi titolo menzionato nel presente documento è necessario contattare Banca IMI Securities Corp. negli Stati Uniti (vedi sotto il dettaglio dei contatti). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. pubblica e distribuisce ricerca ai soggetti definiti ‘Major US Institutional Investors’ negli Stati Uniti solo attraverso Banca IMI Securities Corp., 1 William Street, New York, NY 10004, USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1199. Incentivi relativi alla ricerca Ai sensi di quanto previsto dalla Direttiva Delegata 593/17 UE, il presente documento è classificabile quale incentivo non monetario di minore entità in quanto: - contiene analisi macroeconomiche (c.d. Macroeconomic Research) o è relativo a Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (c.d. FICC Research) ed è reso liberamente disponibile al pubblico indistinto tramite il sito web di Banca IMI - Q&A on Investor Protection topics - ESMA 35-43-349, Question 8 e 9.
Metodologia di distribuzione Il presente documento è per esclusivo uso del soggetto che lo riceve da Banca IMI e Intesa Sanpaolo e non potrà essere riprodotto, ridistribuito, direttamente o indirettamente, a terzi o pubblicato, in tutto o in parte, per qualsiasi motivo, senza il preventivo consenso espresso da parte di Banca IMI e/o Intesa Sanpaolo. Il copyright ed ogni diritto di proprietà intellettuale sui dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni di cui alla presente scheda informativa è di esclusiva pertinenza del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, salvo diversamente indicato. Tali dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni non possono essere oggetto di ulteriore distribuzione ovvero riproduzione, in qualsiasi forma e secondo qualsiasi tecnica ed anche parzialmente, se non con espresso consenso per iscritto da parte di Banca IMI e/o Intesa Sanpaolo. Chi riceve il presente documento è obbligato a uniformarsi alle indicazioni sopra riportate. Metodologia di valutazione I commenti sui dati macroeconomici vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le previsioni macroeconomiche, sui tassi di cambio e sui tassi d’interesse sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo, tramite modelli econometrici dedicati. Le previsioni sono ottenute mediante l’analisi delle serie storico-statistiche rese disponibili dai maggiori data provider ed elaborate sulla base anche dei dati di consenso tenendo conto delle opportune correlazioni fra le stesse. Comunicazione dei potenziali conflitti di interesse Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e le altre società del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo (di seguito anche solo “Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo”) si sono dotate del “Modello di organizzazione, gestione e controllo ai sensi del Decreto Legislativo 8 giugno 2001, n. 231” (disponibile sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo, all’indirizzo: https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/governance/dlgs-231-2001 che, in conformità alle normative italiane vigenti ed alle migliori pratiche internazionali, include, tra le altre, misure organizzative e procedurali per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse, ivi compresi adeguati meccanismi di separatezza organizzativa, noti come Barriere informative, atti a prevenire un utilizzo illecito di dette informazioni nonché a evitare che gli eventuali conflitti di interesse che possono insorgere, vista la vasta gamma di attività svolte dal Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, incidano negativamente sugli interessi della clientela. In particolare, l’esplicitazione degli interessi e le misure poste in essere per la gestione dei conflitti di interesse – facendo riferimento a quanto prescritto dagli articoli 5 e 6 del Regolamento Delegato (UE) 2016/958 della Commissione, del 9 marzo 2016, che integra il Regolamento (UE) n. 596/2014 del Parlamento europeo e del Consiglio per quanto riguarda le norme tecniche di regolamentazione sulle disposizioni tecniche per la corretta presentazione delle raccomandazioni in materia di investimenti o altre informazioni che raccomandano o consigliano una strategia di investimento e per la comunicazione di interessi particolari o la segnalazione di conflitti di interesse e successive modifiche ed integrazioni, dal FINRA Rule 2241, così come dal FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook regole COBS 12.4 – tra il Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo e gli Emittenti di strumenti finanziari, e le loro società del gruppo, nelle raccomandazioni prodotte dagli analisti di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. sono disponibili nelle “Regole per Studi e Ricerche” e nell'estratto del “Modello aziendale per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse”, pubblicato sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures, ed in versione sintetica sul sito di Banca IMI S.p.A. all’indirizzo https://www.bancaimi.com/bancaimi/chisiamo/documentazione/normative.html. Tale documentazione è disponibile per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta al Servizio Conflitti di interesse, Informazioni privilegiate ed altri presidi di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., Via Hoepli, 10 – 20121 Milano – Italia. Inoltre, in conformità con i suddetti regolamenti, le disclosure sugli interessi e sui conflitti di interesse del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo sono disponibili all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures/archivio-dei-conflitti-di-interesse ed aggiornate almeno al giorno prima della data di pubblicazione del presente studio. Si evidenzia che le disclosure sono disponibili per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta a Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. – Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, Via Romagnosi, 5 - 20121 Milano - Italia. Banca IMI S.p.A., una delle società del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, agisce come market maker nei mercati all'ingrosso per i titoli di Stato dei principali Paesi europei e ricopre il ruolo di Specialista in Titoli di Stato, o similare, per i titoli emessi dalla Repubblica d'Italia, dalla Repubblica Federale di Germania, dalla Repubblica Ellenica, dal Meccanismo Europeo di Stabilità e dal Fondo Europeo di Stabilità Finanziaria. .
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In particular, the description of the measures taken to manage interest and conflicts of interest – related to Articles 5 and 6 of the Commission
Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council
with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other
information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest as
subsequently amended and supplemented, the FINRA Rule 2241, as well as the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook rules COBS 12.4 - between the
Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group and issuers of financial instruments, and their group companies, and referred to in research products produced by
analysts at Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is available in the "Rules for Research " and in the extract of the "Corporate model on the management of inside
information and conflicts of interest" published on the website of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., webpage
https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/en/research/RegulatoryDisclosures along with a summary sheet on the website of Banca IMI S.p.A. webpage
https://www.bancaimi.com/en/bancaimi/chisiamo/documentazione/normative.html. This documentation is available to the recipient of this
research upon making a written request to the Compliance Department, Intesa San Paolo S.p.A., Via Hoepli, 10 – 20121 Milan – Italy.
Furthermore, in accordance with the aforesaid regulations, the disclosures of the Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group’s interests and conflicts of interest
are available through webpage https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/en/research/RegulatoryDisclosures/archive-of-intesa-sanpaolo-group-s-conflicts-
of-interest The conflicts of interest published on the internet site are updated to at least the day before the publishing date of this report. We highlight
that disclosures are also available to the recipient of this report upon making a written request to Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. – Macroeconomic and Fixed
Income Research, Via Romagnosi, 5 - 20121 Milan - Italy.
Banca IMI S.p.A., one of the companies belonging to the Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group, acts as market maker in the wholesale markets for the
government securities of the main European countries and also acts as Government Bond Specialist, or in comparable roles, for the government
securities issued by the Republic of Italy, by the Federal Republic of Germany, by the Hellenic Republic, by the European Stability Mechanism and by
the European Financial Stability Facility.
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Report prepared by:
Luca Mezzomo, Macroeconomic Analysis, Intesa Sanpaolo
Paolo Mameli, Macroeconomic Analysis, Intesa SanpaoloYou can also read
