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2021 Data-Driven Trend Report Ketchum shifts in culture
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Introduction
A
t Ketchum, we believe stated desires (as revealed in
in doing work that social media discussions) and
matters. We do this by upcoming events (outlined in our
identifying the tipping events calendar) to triangulate
points, the paradigm likely reactions.
shifts, the cultural
Shifts in Culture is not just
happenings and behaviour
a report: it provides critical
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
changes taking shape.
insights into the forces put
The next normal is going to in motion by the COVID-19
be different. It will not mean pandemic and where the
going back to the conditions that forces are heading, so that you
prevailed in 2019. Just as the can best prepare for the future.
terms “pre-war” and “post-war” are
Shifts in Culture showcases
commonly used to describe the
our approach to insights,
20th century, generations to come
demonstrating our ability to
will likely discuss the pre-COVID-19
understand culture, people
and post-COVID-19 eras.
and change, and our capacity
We call this report ‘Shifts in to translate data into practical
Culture’ to reflect our cultural recommendations for content,
insight philosophy. Our foresight creative and messaging.
approach is empirical: we drew
2 insight from millions of data
sources, scanning daily for
indicators of cultural shifts and
linking them to 129 macro and
micro trends shaping emergent
consumer needs, values and
behaviours globally. We looked for
shifts in culture that are already
underway, and predictions for
2021, using the public’s own
A Data-Driven Trend Report
About this report
In this report we introduce the We also deep-dive into two sectors,
five ‘shifts in culture’ that started to Gaming and Retail, which are seeing some
occur in 2020 - and, we believe, will of the most transformative changes for
continue shaping culture throughout forward-thinking brands across
2021. These shifts are profiled in the all sectors.
following report, each mapping what
Finally, we provide opportunities to
happened in 2020; quantifying the trend
connect with your audience in meaningful
in social data and search; exploring
ways in 2021 through our cultural
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
what next in 2021; and discussing the
moments calendar. This provides a list of
implications for brands and businesses.
pop culture events, historical landmarks
and, after anniversaries as well as
business events to inspire creativity and
Î Serious play provide you with practical opportunities to
plug into culture.
Play is not just light-hearted fun but a
source of tremendously valuable control,
catharsis and connection
Î Retro nostalgia
Looking back to simpler times for a comforting
hit of vintage fashion and style
3
Î Immersive experience
Reconnecting with our senses (and ourselves)
through emotive, all-encompassing immersive
games, exhibitions and VR technologies
Î Closer communities
Disconnected from our face-to-face communities,
we have retreated into niche internet cultures and
tight social bubbles - a shift we must reverse
Î Local lives
Busy commuters have rediscovered their local
high streets and parks, sparking a renaissance of
local community retail and volunteering
A Data-Driven Trend Report
About Ketchum
Research & Analytics
This study is powered by Ketchum Research & Analytics
(R&A) – one of the largest research groups embedded within a
leading communications agency, and recently honoured with
the AMEC Platinum Award for Most Effective Media Intelligence,
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Research and Insights Company.
Our global team of 100+ research specialists include PhDs,
trends analysts, behavioural and machine-learning experts,
and data strategy consultants across 12 cities worldwide. We
provide integrated research, strategic planning, and digital and
predictive analytics to help our clients build more effective
communication programmes.
We’re particularly known for our work in:
Î Behavioural & Cultural Trends
Î Thought Leadership Strategies
Î Audience Segmentation & Messaging Strategies
Î Earned Media Attribution
Î Predictive Analytics
At the centre of these efforts are
4
our proprietary technology platforms –
PRQ and OMNI - that combine Artificial
Intelligence and Big Data to quantify and
predict cultural changes and understand
what truly matters to our audiences.
+ PRQ: our proprietary technology to + GWI: a global consumer insights
In this quantify and predict cultural changes.
It allows us to make sense of the
chaos of culture and help our clients
platform. It provides us with
data on the habits, lifestyles and
behaviours of bespoke target
report
place smarter bets on the future. audiences to shape and quantify
+ Pi Datametrics:
our demographic insights.
+ TalkWalker
an award-
winning global search solution. : a world-leading
we used It allows us to quantify changes
in search behaviours and map
keywords and key phrases to
maximise content visibility.
social media listening software. It
provides us with real-time insights
into consumer needs and pain points
to inspire creative platforms and
inform messaging.
5
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021 A Data-Driven Trend Report
serious
play
A Data-Driven Trend Report
It’s hard to
quantify just
how important
festivals are
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
... “the physical
components are pretty
to our
simple — a field, a few
stages, some tents, food,
drink and lots of people
— but taken together,
collective they provide something
far greater. It’s a sense of
camaraderie, escapism
wellbeing...
and life-affirming joy
that few other things can
conjure”
-- Jochan Embley,
Evening Standard
A
6 fter a year+ of
lockdowns, cancelled
plans and postponed
events, the second
half of 2021 offers the
exciting prospect of
fun finally resuming. This year we
believe play will mean more to us
than ever, as absence has made
us realise what we love about
coming together, losing ourselves
in the music, challenging
ourselves athletically, and
soaking up new places, cultures
and experiences. No longer
will we take these moments of
entertainment and exploration
for granted: in 2021 play will feel
precious, much-hoped-for and
hard-won.
As the world opens up,
brands and cultural institutions
have the opportunity to craft
extraordinary cultural ‘re-
entry’ experiences - and create
once-in-a-lifetime memories of
delight, joy and wonder.
A Data-Driven Trend Report
#STAYCATION
Google searches for Staycation in the UK
Jan 2018- Dec 2020
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
What we saw in 2020:
Playful Travel
7 2020 was for many, the year without after lockdown and it started to feel as
taking a holiday, even time off, for that though a more normal life was resuming.
matter. Yet as the first lockdown eased, Searches peaked w/c 26 July 2020, the
people started to explore what limited fun week some of the last restrictions on
might be possible - and the “staycation” gyms, sports facilities and public transport
entered UK conversation. were removed. What stands out is not just
the desire people had to make the most
Searches for “staycation” started
of their renewed freedom, but also the
shooting up w/c 14 June 2020, the
playfulness of the experiences people
week non-essential retail reopened
were seeking. Disneyland might be off
the menu, but teepees and treehouses
There’s a reason were back on, as people searched for
“glamping”, “log cabin”, “spa”, “hot tub”,
“treehouse” and “island”.
that the Roaring People may not have been able
to escape abroad, but instead were
escaping into their imagination and the
Twenties followed
kind of fanciful, fairytale experiences that
harked back to childhood holidays and
simpler times.
the 1918 pandemic... With travel likely further limited
well into summer 2021, it’s likely to be
another bumper year for staycations
- with knock-on consequences for
... “we have a pent-up, desperate need everything from fashion (yet another
-- J.J. Abrams, to see each other — to socialize and year of wholesome prairie dresses) to
have communal experiences. And there sales of garden decor and children’s
New York Times
is nothing that I can think of that is more play equipment (bigger than ever).
exciting than being in a theater with people
you don’t know, who don’t necessarily
like the same sports teams or pray to the
same god or eat the same food. But you’re
screaming together, laughing together,
crying together. It’s a social necessity”
202
IPO of games platform
Jan Roblox, January
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Used by 1.5 million children in the UK,
Roblox’s IPO will determine exactly
how financially lucrative the business
of digital play is
Feb
What’s coming:
The Roaring 2020s
We enter 2021 on the back of an enormous stock market rally and with Mar New James Bond movie
the feeling of making up for lost time following a pandemic. As such, it’s released, 2 April
little surprise that the 1920s feel highly relevant now, a hundred years on. British actor Lashana Lynch to play
the first black and first female 007, in
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
In his book ‘Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of a move likely to generate discussion
Coronavirus on the Way We Live’ (2020), Yale professor and social
epidemiologist Dr Nicholas Christakis, looks back on how societies
Apr around representation
Rescheduled Academy
have recovered from pandemics of the past to predict the return of Awards (Oscars), 25 April
the ‘Roaring Twenties’. The caution, abstemiousness and reduced Director of 2011 pandemic thriller
spending of 2020 will take an about-turn, he forecasts, into a boom ‘Contagion’ Steven Soderbergh is
co-producing, and says he wants it
period where “people will relentlessly seek out social interactions” May to “FEEL like the movies we all love”
with behaviour including “sexual licentiousness,” liberal spending,
and a flourishing of the arts.
Rescheduled UEFA Euro
Christakis does not anticipate this to get fully underway until
Championship, 11 June
2024 - but we believe the first signs may be visible in 2021, as F. Scott
Fitzgerald’s epoch-defining novel ‘The Great Gatsby’ enters public
Jun The European Championship will
enter new territory in 2021 with the
domain and is likely to inspire a wave of adaptations, commentary tournament set to take place in 12
and themed events. Taylor Swift has already taken inspiration from host countries around the continent
the novel for her latest album ‘evermore’ – in particular the song
Happiness - and a novelistic prequel is arriving in February from US
writer Michael Farris Smith, exploring the enigmatic narrator Nick
Jul Rescheduled 2020 Tokyo
Olympics, 23 July
Carraway’s life prior to meeting millionaire Jay Gatsby. Japan’s PM sees summer Olympics as a
8 “symbol of global solidarity”, celebrating
This evolution of the ‘Serious Play’ trend is party-as-catharsis, athleticism and inspiring activity among
a moment of release and escapism from a very pressured and Aug locked-down populations
stressful time. Some of the narrative ambivalence of Gatsby-the-
novel may get lost in the images of glittering mansions and Jazz
Age decadence that will dazzle our eyes and screens. After a year
spent by many in loungewear and tracksuits, there will be appetite
for a return to dressing up (although also expect, er, sequined Sept
loungewear). 1920s costume parties may make a return for
Christmas 2021 - masks usefully being an integral part of this look.
Earlier in the autumn, as coronavirus restrictions only partially
loosen, it’s a theme we expect to see explored in static; socially Oct
distanced events such as Secret Cinema, sit-down jazz clubs,
and retail set dressing.
Nov
Dec
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Implications
for brands
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Î Focus on Î Recognise the depth
Instagram Stories: of emotion (but also
Instagram has been quiet during
lockdown periods as people have less to
anxiety) around
share, but will return. During the interim resuming play:
period where some people will be relaxing this is incredibly powerful and has
on distancing restrictions faster than the potential to create transformative
others, design participatory interactions customer relationships for brands
are to focus on stories, not main feed who get it right.
posts, so that your audience can engage
in selective sharing if desired. Î Recognise that
Î Give people collective cultural
opportunities to events will be
capture the moment: functioning as rituals:
from festivals to football games, close
photo backdrops and “selfie concierges”
attention to the structure of ritual form
9 to help you get the perfect shot, or even
(thresholds, liminality, reintegration) will
pro videographers to capture family
enable organisations to create events
reunions and baby’s first vacation.
that are moving, satisfying experiences.
Consider working with experienced
Î Outside-the-box designers who are expert in structuring
keepsakes: people will desire these moments.
souvenirs and lasting memories of these
moments, such as festival and musical
‘merch’. There may be an opportunity to
offer more imaginative
and upscale options other than just
a £20 t-shirt.
Î Find opportunities to
reassure on safety:
cancellation policies, distancing and
mask-wearing rules all need to be
communicated more prominently
than usual.
10
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021 A Data-Driven Trend Report
retro
nostalgiaA Data-Driven Trend Report
Nostalgia
is an extremely
powerful
force linked
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
to memory... ... “but it has a way of putting
a rosier view on our memory.
When we smell chocolate chip
cookies, it’s linked to memories
that bring us back to a more
-- David DiSalvo, stable, comfortable place in our
via Spotify lives. We can inhabit it in our
minds and feel a level of support
that most of us aren’t feeling
right now because there is so
much instability”
A
fter a testing year,
people are looking
back to what seemed
11
like easier times.
Retro styles, hobbies
and activities offer a
kind of aesthetic comfort blanket,
offering a reassuring sense of
nostalgia for ‘simpler times’: be
that the 1960s fashion of ‘The
Queen’s Gambit’, 2020’s breakout
TV show - or the silvery, optimistic
futurism of “Y2K” which Gen Z
continue to seek out.
From high fashion to vintage We enter 2021 in a more hopeful
Nikes, the new status symbols mood with the vaccine rollout
are old things. Getting something underway, yet also aware that
vintage can be much more the immediate future will remain
exciting, credible, and ethical than challenging for months to come.
just going out and buying a brand-
In this ongoing uncertainty
new item. Vintage is also kinder to
about the future, looking
the environment, playing into an
back on a rose-tinted past will
era of heightened sustainability-
remain comforting.
consciousness and the desire for
quality that stands the test of time.I May Destroy You
Normal People 35,335
31,467 Total mentions
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Total mentions
Emily in Paris
21,813
Total mentions
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
The Queen’s Gambit
88,324
The “strong female leads” of 2020
23 rd Mar 2020 – 31 st Dec 2020
Total mentions
What we saw in 2020:
Vintage Media
12 Across media, from music to film and The breakout TV show of the year was
TV, audiences looked back in 2020 to also a nostalgic one, namely The Queen’s
simpler times and much-loved formats of Gambit, set in the 1960s. 2020 was a rich
the past. year for young, female-led dramas, with
Normal People generating buzz during
Early on in the pandemic, Spotify saw a
the first lockdown, followed by I May
54% increase in listeners making nostalgic-
Destroy You (Network) and Emily In Paris
themed playlists, as well as an uptick in the
(Network). But it was The Queen’s Gambit
share of listening to music from the ’50s,
that captured the world’s imagination –
’60s, ’70s, and ’80s - with 1950s increasing
inspiring social media posts and digital
the most. The company speculated that
media content about chess, fashion,
listeners “were trying to recreate moments
beauty, interiors and addiction, among
from their past to find comfort, calm, and
other topics. Both The Queen’s Gambit
a break from the day-to-day.” Meanwhile,
and Normal People may have achieved
sales of vinyl records surpassed CDs for
62 million streams globally, but it was
the first time since the 1980s, with US
The Queen’s Gambit that was by far the
consumers spending a massive $232
most discussed show in UK social media,
million on vinyl in the first half of 2020,
with 43,105 mentions vs. Normal People
nearly two thirds of total physical music
at 30,720.
revenue. In the UK, we returned to that most
classic of media: radio. Global Radio, the People particularly praised the
home of stations such as Heart, Capital, costumes, the set design and colour
LBC, and Classic FM, saw a 25% increase palettes - inspiring younger viewers to
in daily reach and Nation Radio, reported a say that they wished people were still
40% boost. dressing in these 1960s retro styles, or
inspiring some vintage dress shopping
TV viewing also changed: in the first
and cosplay of their own.
six weeks of lockdown, Britons returned
to TV classics with viewings of Only
Fools and Horses up 20% year on year,
and Last of the Summer Wine up 30%.A Data-Driven Trend Report
What we saw in 2020:
Vintage Fashion
Vintage fashion is not a brand new As such, second-hand clothing
trend, but went from strength to strength marketplaces have seen substantial
in 2020. Celebrities and fashion fans investment, with Vestiare raising
continued to seek out ‘archive’ garments $63 million in April 2020. Previous 2019
as a means of demonstrating their fashion funding rounds saw both Lithuanian
knowledge and ability to access ultra-rare resale site Vinted and American
items. Nineties brands were particularly sneaker resale site StockX achieve
sought out: Kendall Jenner wore a mesh $1+ billion ‘unicorn’ valuations.
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
set from Jean Paul Gaultier’s Spring
On the more affordable side, second-
1994 collection during London Fashion
hand clothing marketplace Depop has
Week in February 2020, and designer
gained 25 million users across 147 countries
resale site Vestiare Collective reported
who list 140,000 new items on the platform
booming sales in vintage Versace and
daily. Depop seller Ellie Garthwaite reports
Tom Ford-era Gucci clothing, plus
a trend that “fast fashion is slowly taking a
Christian Dior Saddles, Fendi Baguettes
step back, while slow fashion and vintage
and Prada nylon styles for bags.
items are becoming increasingly popular”.
Turn-of-the-millennium brands such as
Jane Norman have been revived among
a younger generation seeking out the
styles their older sisters coveted: VICE
described “the Jane Norman aesthetic”
as something that “evokes pure nostalgia,
whether you shopped there at the time or
just looked up to those who did.”
13
Fast fashion
is slowly ... “while slow fashion
and vintage items
taking a
are becoming
increasingly popular”
step back...
-- Ellie Garthwaite,
Depop seller202
The Great Gatsby enters
public domain, 1 January
Jan
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Following a damp start to the
‘Roaring Twenty-Twenties’ F. Scott
Fitzgerald’s glittering tale of artifice
and excess is ripe for creative
reinterpretation in 2021
Feb Release of WandaVision on
What’s coming: Disney+, 15 January
Picking up where Avengers:
1981 and 2001, again Endgame left off, WandaVision is
a “love letter to the golden age of
television”, meshing 1950s sitcom
The mainstream fashion cycle was severely disrupted in Mar tropes with superhero storytelling
2020, and we anticipate that fashion will remain asynchronous
Drake releases new album
and often vintage-led in 2021.
Certified Lover Boy,
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Designer fashion is struggling for relevance. September’s January
SS21 catwalk shows were largely cancelled, and the collections Apr Drake premiered a nostalgic trailer
designers produced proved wildly out-of-sync with consumer for his sixth studio album, featuring
visual references to his past albums
needs; in a year of working from home, people sought loungewear and suggesting a mid-career
and comfort above all else. As such, clothing sales fell dramatically retrospective
(August 2020 saw sales 16% below pre-pandemic levels) and seem
unlikely to recover until the world reopens in late 2021. May
In this gap, vintage and second-hand clothing will continue to
grow as the affordable, sustainable and creative go-to choice.
Generation Z and younger celebrities such as Bella Hadid will
look to early 00s looks, with TikTok’s e-boys and e-girls echoing
Jun
that era’s emo aesthetics, and rumours that Balenciaga’s City
bag will be next to see a fashion revival.
Spencer, the Princess Diana biopic starring Kristen Stewart,
will be filming in 2021 and it will also be forty years since the royal
Jul
wedding. This suggests a revival of media interest in floppy collars,
bouffant ‘leg of mutton’ sleeves and preppy Sloane styles.
14
Interiors, as much as fashion will take inspiration from these retro Goodbye to Internet
trends and colour palettes, as we discuss further in the next section Explorer, 17 August
on ‘Immersive Experience’.
Aug Despite long ago switching to
Chrome, the death of Internet
Explorer is a chance for 90’s kids to
indulge in nostalgia about the early
days of the ‘world wide web’
Sept
Oct
Persuasion arrives in
cinemas, late 2021
Nov The adaptation of Jane Austen’s
final novel will continue the
Bridgerton boom in retail searches
for empire line dresses, puff sleeves,
and corsetry
DecA Data-Driven Trend Report
Implications
for brands
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Î Push sustainability Î What’s on the
factors: inside matters:
retro classic trend is an opportunity to through 2021, this pattern of greater
remind consumers of the benefits of growth in homewares than clothing is
sustainable, breathable natural fabrics likely to continue, with consumers likely
such as wool, and potentially encourage seeing more value (and more willing to
them to upgrade their purchases to ‘splash out’) on interiors than outfits.
higher quality options. Natural fabrics feel
‘classic’, and also offer greater repair and Î ‘Shop the look’
fabric recycling benefits.
content:
copious opportunities for clothing, beauty,
Î ‘Sell-back schemes’ homewares and other retailers to create
and brand-owned ‘get the look’ content and displays tied into
retro TV series and movies - check out our
second-hand 2021 calendar for key releases.
marketplaces:
15
offer an opportunity for brands to Î Mine the archive:
benefit from the value in vintage clothes, can your brand or retailer re-issue classic
accessories and furniture - which would styles? The concept has potential for
otherwise be channelled through Depop, everyone from designer brands (who now
Vestiare, Ebay etc. It also has value in increasingly have a ‘core’ collection) to
offering a lower price point and alternative, home retailers e.g. Habitat, Ikea.
sustainable entry point into premium
brands for younger customers.16
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021 A Data-Driven Trend Report
immersive
experi-
enceA Data-Driven Trend Report
Sitting in
silence isn’t a
good thing,
even though at
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
times we ... “this may seem
obvious if you live
alone but have some
need a bit of it... background noise.
The radio, the TV, the
window open hearing
the kids next door
kick the ball - that
-- Alex Beresford, you used to hate”
via Twitter #britankeeptalking
T
he year of 2020
meant social
distancing,
17
quarantining and
lockdowns, starving
people of their innate
need for human interaction.
As people look to inject feeling
and warmth back into their lives After a year of guidelines,
and move far away from the rules and limits on human
humdrum of pandemic routines, interactions, we are looking for
this year will see an increased products and experiences that
demand for experience: from tap into human emotion more
all-encompassing immersive than ever - seeking solace
games, exhibitions and VR in those that offer a sense
technologies, to moving and of immersion, and that ease
emotive experiences make us feel the horrible loneliness and
something new. separation that have been a
hallmark of 2020.
As the world reopens up,
brands and cultural institutions
have the opportunity to fill
the void left by absent human
contact over the course of the
pandemic by offering products
and experiences that appeal to
our most basic emotional need:
to feel part of something bigger
than ourselves.A Data-Driven Trend Report
What we saw in 2020:
Ambient Media
Without the constant sounds of these ambient interactions with an on/
office chatter, busy fingers clicking off experience of human presence more
away at keyboards and printers like TV, where “people become episodic.
jamming and beeping, many remote Someone is present until their little
workers were made acutely aware of rectangle winks off and they disappear.”
their social isolation over the course of
In exchange, cultural critic Kyle Chayka
the pandemic.
observed how TV was increasingly
We sought consolation in ambient becoming “ambient,” with Netflix pioneering
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
media to make up for this, from virtual a genre “as ignorable as it is interesting,”
white noise playlists, to audio that re- from the inanities of Emily in Paris to an
created the bustling office vibe. Between array of reality shows from home decor to
April and July 2020, more than half a outdoorsmanship. This is TV designed to
million people listened to The Sound be played continually in the background,
of Colleagues, a webpage and Spotify while you work, stare at social media
playlist of workplace sounds. “The sound dramas on your phone, or deal with the
of someone else punching the keys is an domestic labours of quarantine. Ambient
indication that there are people around TV, Chayka argues, “aims to erase thought
me,” said one listener, capturing perfectly entirely, smoothing any disruptive texture
the essence of this need to simulate or dissonance. Its high-resolution shots
human contact during this extended are chopped and composed into lulling
period of social isolation. montages—slow motion, fast motion,
drone footage—that numb the senses with
In his New York Times article entitled
color and movement. It provides glossy,
‘This Was the Year When Everything
comforting oblivion.”
Became TV’, James Poniewozik nodded
to this void left by a distinct lack of bustle
18 as the global pandemic constrained our
boundaries to the four walls of our homes
and four corners of our screens. He noted
how “in a workplace, other people are
there in an ambient way — they drift in,
they drift out, there’s an occasional did-
you-see-this exchange between tasks.”
The new world of video calls replaced
TV is increasingly
becoming ambient,
as ignorable as
it can be -- Kyle Chayka,
Cultural criticIrish paint brand
Curator reported
90 % decrease
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Farrow & Ball in sales of its most
reported popular grey
+28 %
growth
in their deep,
rich blues
90 %
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
of people
said that their home Colour of the year
was important to
make their life better
Pantone
Illuminating
13-0647
a bright sunny yellow
What we saw in 2020:
Immersive Colour
19 Confined to our homes during In pre-COVID-19 times, minimalistic,
lockdown - and with millions working from stripped-back home interiors may have
home throughout the year - 2020 was a offered respite from chaotic schedules
year where we reprioritised our domestic and hectic lifestyles. In months ahead,
spaces. In an August 2020 survey for the legacy of coronavirus will see people
retailer B&Q, nine out of ten people said injecting colour and warmth into their
that their home was important to make homes to create living spaces that offer a
their life better, and 57% felt it was even sense of feeling embraced and included.
more significant post-lockdown. Home Looking into 2021, Farrow & Ball forecast
improvement sales were duly a key the popularity of warm hues such as
driver of post-lockdown consumer India Yellow, Tanner’s Brown and Dead
spending growth, as Britons invested Salmon, which, despite its disagreeable
in creating a safe, cosy and reassuring name, is a beautiful, aged pink. Other
living environment. colour forecasters agree: Pantone
named Illuminating 13-0647, a bright
Supported by evidence that colour
sunny yellow, as one of its colours of the
has been shown to affect mood and ease
year for 2021, considering it a colour of
anxiety, many turned to paint to create a
“strength and positivity”.
warm and comforting ambiance. Britain
waved farewell to once popular whites and This desire to enhance our at-
greys in favour of deeply saturated tones home experiences may extend
that rejuvenated and inspired us while beyond visual colour to the full array
bunkered down at home. Irish paint brand of sensory experiences. People may
Curator reported a 90% decrease in sales seek out textured materials for tactile
of its most popular grey - while Farrow & stimulation, such as linen bedlinen,
Ball reported a +28% growth in their deep, velvet sofas, jute and sisal carpets, or
rich blues. rattan furnishings.
As Joa Studholme, the colour Conscious use of incense, scented
curator for Farrow & Ball put it: “There diffusers and home fragrance can create
is a tendency to crave warm tones in a sense of daily variation and structure
challenging times. It’s all about being that the stay-at-home life may lack. In the
warm and earthy and choosing deeply words of writer Rahel Aima, an “olfactory
saturated color. It’s about trying something mood playlist to move through my day.”
that gives you a great big hug.”202
Ryoji Ikeda exhibition at
Jan 180 Studios, 2-28 February
A Data-Driven Trend Report
The first show by a solo artist to take
over all five floors of 180 Studios,
Ryoji Ikeda’s colossal audio-visual
installations immerse visitors in data-
Feb
driven light and sound
What’s coming: London Fashion Week,
19-23 February
Re-Immersion In The World The first gender-neutral, largely
season-less Fashion Week will
take place live on the LFW digital
The pandemic has reminded us of the true value of being around Mar platform, doubtless pushing
people and being immersed in a lively, interactive world. boundaries of what a brand and
retail experience can be
With lockdown, social distancing and working from home likely
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
to extend well into 2021, people will continue to look for ways to Electric Gamebox
escape domestic monotony and isolation. Gaming will provide Apr immersive gaming booths,
one avenue: as discussed in Trend #1, Serious Play, it has become February
a substantial social realm. Remote but collective exercises (reopening subject to UK
experiences, such as Peloton and Apple Fitness+ exercise classes, restrictions). Each room at Electric
Gamebox in London, Manchester
and virtual running races from 5Ks to marathons, will continue to
and Essex has 360-degrees of
provide another venue for us to “be apart together” and gain a May visuals projected onto touch-
sense of collective participation and achievement. Zwift’s virtual sensitive walls, for groups of up to
courses for running and cycling let athletes feel like they’re working six players
out on the streets of London, New York or its own ‘Watopia’, using
visual immersion to offer a sense of variety, escape and motivation.
Jun
In 2020, many of us have re-discovered our local parks and
countryside, and have shifted our social lives from cafés and bars
Comic Con museum
to outdoor squares, waterfronts and ‘coffee-walks’. As we enter
opening, 22-25 July
a second pandemic spring with social distancing requirements
Jul
Celebrating 50 years of San
remaining, these outdoor spaces need to offer people a sustained, Diego’s Comic Con, the museum
connected feeling of being in public. We will desire a sense of will provide fans with in-
‘bustle’, a pleasant hum of activity and life - which might be provided person experiences and virtual
20 programmes in “an experience
by extending outdoor seating and pedestrianisation to create an unlike any other”
enjoyable sense of ‘café society’ (as occurred in London’s Soho
Aug
during the summer and autumn). Outdoor markets, food trucks
and food halls can provide a safer, well-ventilated retail and God of War: Ragnarok
entertainment options during this in-between year, with heaters and released, Autumn
blankets helping people linger into the evening. The most anticipated game of the
year offers an epic mythological
And while indoor performances may remain limited for some
time, we should be ambitious with what happens in the outdoor,
Sept battle between Norse gods at
the end of the world. Expect
excitement about the Playstation
public realm. Art, music and dance should shift to meet their 5’s extraordinary graphics and
audiences: what if we might meet our friends not only for a immersive virtual worlds
coffee and a walk, but a slice of world-class culture?
Oct Launch of James Webb
space telescope,
31 October
NASA’s James Webb space telescope
will find the first galaxies that formed
in the early universe and watch
Nov planets being born - immersing us in
deep space and cosmic awe
DecA Data-Driven Trend Report
Implications
for brands
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
As the world begins to open up, our High streets, shopping centers,
desire to get back out there will likely be commercial landlords and local councils
tempered by significant barriers: both will also need to act collectively in
ongoing epidemiological caution, but also order to drive footfall and re-engage
lost habits. Many consumer behaviours people with city centre space. Instead of
will have taken a 12-18 month hiatus and simply ‘going into town’ as a functional,
have been replaced by new patterns, such transactional experience, this too needs
as online grocery shopping. Overall, online to have a bigger story of being immersed
retail has accelerated five or six years in community and the local area. Public
in one, and is now 30% of all retail sales. and private bodies must work together
As such, retailers in particular will have to develop pedestrian shopping districts
to lure people back into stores. The role with plenty of outdoor seating, evening
of in-store retail is not to replace online lighting, and display and performance
convenience, but rather to deepen brand areas (e.g. screening the 2021 Olympics)
engagement to secure the purchase. - and also reform licensing and land use
to allow for primarily outdoor leisure and
Î Investment in entertainment. This year is an opportunity
to think radically about what could be
21
experience is key: possible, without being bounded in the
stores need to communicate brand
small, incremental steps of what has gone
values, demonstrate a lifestyle, and above
before. What might a truly revitalised
all spark desire.
outdoor public realm look like?
Î Immersive tech:
visually striking new immersive display
technologies, such as augmented reality,
large-scale projections, interactive
displays and holograms can feed this
consumer desire for spectacle and
sensory immersion.22
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021 A Data-Driven Trend Report
closer
commu-
nitiesMy social circle
A Data-Driven Trend Report
is more of a
love triangle.
I keep it small
T
he coronavirus
and acute.
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
pandemic was a
seismic shock to our
social relationships.
In just a few days -- Liza Koshy,
in March 2020, our via Twitter
habitual daily interactions with
workplace colleagues, family and
friends were disrupted - forced
either into the virtual realm, or for
millions on furlough or in closed
industry sectors, severed entirely.
With some northern UK cities
in particular held in lockdown
throughout the summer of 2020,
many people are currently digital communities substituting
23
heading towards the 12-month for lost IRL interaction and Reddit
mark without having seen family use up a massive 44% year-on-
members and friends in the flesh, year. With audiences consuming
producing a building wave of a heavy diet of news media
loneliness and isolation. and social content, the “culture
wars” instigated by right-wing
Through this loss,
columnists and opportunistic
coronavirus has reminded
minor celebrities such as
us of the importance of
Lawrence Fox were exacerbated,
‘community’ - whether
potentially radicalising people’s
that is a local community,
political attitudes. Protests
social circles or groups of
throughout the summer
like-minded people - with
expressed tensions around
sometimes mixed blessings.
British identity, history, and
Government instructed us to freedom - and the anti-Semitic
“bubble up” and keep our social QAnon conspiracy theory gained
circles small to reduce virus an alarming foothold in the UK.
transmission, forcing people
Closer Communities, then,
to spend more time solely with
is a trend about decidedly
their household unit. Some
mixed blessings: the same
welcomed the opportunity to
engagement-maximising
see more of their partners and
social media algorithms that
children; others fled cramped
help teenagers find their niche
shared houses and flats to return
TikTok communities, are feeding
to the parental family home. By
extremist attitudes among older
and large, our daily exposure
generations on Facebook. In
to diverse viewpoints has
2021, we need to find new ways
decreased. Those of us who were
to come together.
able retreated indoors and online,A Data-Driven Trend Report
What we saw in 2020:
TikTok Tribes
In 2019, culture writer Jia Tolentino niche communities of the year. “Everyone
spoke of the rise of “Instagram face”, has a different TikTok experience,” they
the spookily-identikit, injectables-and- note, “tailored to what piques their unique
filter-enhanced look of the late 2010s. In interests. For some that’s plant parenting
2016, Kyle Chayka had made the same or sketching anime, for others it’s the
point about design and interior decor fantasy of cottagecore and the theatre.
rendered homogenous by global DTC
Whatever you’re interested in, no matter
brands and social media with his concept
how common or obscure, on TikTok you
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
of “Airspace”. Yet in 2020, visual culture
can find and connect with a community
diverged sharply, as ultra-algorithmically
that shares your passion.”
personalised feeds on TikTok - the
fastest-growing and most downloaded Their top 10 communities certainly
app of the year - produced a flourishing of demonstrated this diversity of interests,
niche visual tribes. and proved how this shortform video app
has developed far beyond lip-syncing and
In their 2020 annual round-up, the
dance routines.
media company reported on its Top 10
TikTok has taught
us there is
24
truly a tribe
for everyone.
-- Ann Friedman,
Journalist
Top 10 communities
1. #AltTikTok - You’ve landed on Alt TikTok.
2. #WitchTok - The community that cast a spell on us in 2020.
3. #DracoTok - Scared Potter?
4. #CottageCore - The peaceful simple life aesthetic.
5. #RugTikTok - Where every rug is a winner!
6. #ArtTikTok - Mesmerizing art for all.
7. #PlantTok - Because plants need love too.
8. #TheatreKids - My way. My way to Broadway!
9. #HolidayTikTok - Where the season officially starts on November 2.
10. #AnimeTikTok - Welcome to the secret anime society.A Data-Driven Trend Report
#QANON
UK Google Searches Jan 2017 - Dec 2020
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
What we saw in 2020:
Political Radicalisation
25 Unfortunately it was not only fun, and public debate about how exactly
pop-video culture that fragmented in Britain remembered colonialism and its
2020: instead, Britain’s political culture, crimes. University of Oxford staff and
already divided into two vocal camps of students called for the statue of Cecil
‘Remainers’ and ‘Brexiteers’, continued to Rhodes to fall - while right-wingers argued
remain polarised throughout the year. that not all history should be remembered,
and sought to quash the National Trust
Public health questions of mask-
from researching and educating on how
wearing and public gathering became
colonialism and the slave trade had
identitarian battles between doctors,
funded many of its properties.
“covidiots” and anti-mask protestors.
Interest in QAnon, the discredited far-right 2020 was a year in which our social
American conspiracy theory about Satanist, lives were conducted online. With the
sex-trafficking political elites, spiked government an unreliable (and often
sharply in the UK in the week commencing U-turning) source of information,
15 March, the beginning of lockdown - social media was an essential
and continued to peak in July through source of information. Used wisely, it
November as supposedly ‘anti child enabled millions to hear directly from
trafficking’ protests were held in some epidemiologists and public health experts.
parts of the UK. A number of wellness A younger generation of white Britons
influencers started advocating QAnon educated themselves about racism
concepts and anti-vaccination sentiments, through the proliferation of articles and
as “conspirituality” gathered pace (a Instagram slideshows on Black Lives
term coined by anthropologists Charlotte Matter topics. Yet radicalisation and
Ward and David Voas, who noticed that conspiracy theory were, also, the result.
people with spiritual or alternative beliefs
As the world re-opens and we mix
are especially prone to conspiracy-like
again in more diverse workplace and
thinking.) Had your yoga teacher been
public environments; as younger and
radicalised? It was a disquieting thought.
older family members meet again
Debates about British heritage and around the dinner table, there will be
culture were another flashpoint. In June challenges ahead as these digitally-
2020, protestors toppled a statue of developed, fragmented political
Bristol slave trader Edward Colston and identities have to reintegrate into the
threw it into the harbour, generating media wider social world.202
Nineteen Eighty-Four and
Animal Farm out of UK
copyright, 1 January
George Orwell’s endlessly relevant
dystopian sci-fi and political
Jan allegory provide rich pickings for
A Data-Driven Trend Report
modern social commentators
IPO of dating app Bumble,
February
Rumoured to be coming around
What’s coming: Feb Valentine’s Day, female-centric
dating app Bumble launches its
IPO in February
Social Repair Robin Dunbar releases book
on friendship, 4 March
A 2018 study by communications professor Jeffrey A. Hall Mar The University of Oxford psychologist
and creator of the ‘Dunbar number’
calculated that, on average, it takes about 50 hours of time with releases ‘Friends: Understanding the
someone over a three-month period before you consider them Power of our Most Important Relationships’
a casual friend, 90 hours before you become real friends, and Minneapolis police trial for
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
about 200 hours to become close friends. “Friendships, however, death of George Floyd, 8 March
Apr
require the investment of considerable time to create and Preliminary date set for trial of
maintain,” notes evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar, writing four police officers at the scene
of George Floyd’s death
in response to the coronavirus pandemic. He cites research
showing that “the emotional quality of a friendship depends Anniversary of George Floyd’s
directly on the time invested in a given social link”, and that “the death, 25 May
emotional quality of a relationship declines rapidly if contact May Activists will doubtless take to the
streets again, one year on from the
rates drop below those appropriate to the relationship quality”. death of George Floyd at the hands of
the Minneapolis police, turning attention
The damage the coronavirus pandemic will have done to
to civil rights and social justice
our social networks clearly follows. We may have worked to
transfer our closest half-dozen friend and family relationships Jul 100 years since Tulsa Race
Massacre, 31 May – 1 June
to new virtual forms - but coronavirus has halted many of our
Oklahoma has already begun events
looser acquaintanceships and ‘weak social ties’ that provide in remembrance of the single worst
a valuable feeling of connectedness and information, both act of racial violence in US history: the
personally and in the workplace. Psychologist Marisa G. Franco massacre and destruction of “Black
Jun Wall Street” in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in 1921
says that most of us lose friends, “not because we don’t like
each other, but because we get busy and things just fizzle out”.
26 If these connections are not renewed in 2021 they will likely
Imperial Lates Online:
wither for good, leaving people vulnerable to a host of longer Staying Connected, part of
term consequences; not just loneliness, but adverse health and Aug London Tech Week,
economic impacts too. 1-6 September
2021 is a year, therefore, in which we will all need to make Imperial college hosts a week-
long virtual programme of events
conscious efforts to maintain and rebuild our relationships exploring human connection in the
with the wider network of people who matter to us.
Sept
age of technology
BBC to release 9/11: The
Twenty Year Anniversary,
September 2021
The BBC have commissioned
Oct a feature length documentary
on the 9/11 attacks in New York,
probing the impact of 20 years of
the War on Terror
Nov
DecA Data-Driven Trend Report
Implications
for brands
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Î Wishy-washy Î Jump on Tiktok’s
messaging no absurdist bandwagon:
in 2020, Tiktok’s slapstick comedy
longer cuts it: style made the ‘weird internet’ the new
the expectation that brands should have a
mainstream. Advertising and marketing
position on social and political issues is no
content should take advantage of this
longer restricted only to ‘activist brands’
space for goofiness and experimentation
such as Lush. Know who your audience is
as a means to revitalise brands.
and take a real position.
Î Check your ads: Î Help reconnections
ensure advertising keyword blacklists happen:
aren’t actually blocking your ads being companies can help by offering
displayed against the topics Millennials promotions to ‘invite a +1’ or ‘introduce a
and Gen Z are most passionate about. friend’ at discounted rates, to help give us
Update your brand safety playbooks a reason to reach out.
using services such as Check My Ads.
27
Î Preparation is key:
all kinds of brands need to be ready to
moderate polarised discussion on social
media comments and Instagram. Build
teams, processes and guidelines in
advance of issues flaring up.28
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021 A Data-Driven Trend Report
local
livesA Data-Driven Trend Report
The coalescing
and galvanizing
of small
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
groups of people
who share
T
affinities.
he positive flipside of
the narrowed horizons
-- PRQ,
Part II
discussed in Trend #4
Tighter Tribes, above,
is a resurgence of
engagement in our local
neighbourhoods and communities.
29 Community support groups set
up at street and village level to
support those who were shielding
have in many cases blossomed
into revitalised voluntary
sectors, with people stepping
up to support their communities
through donations, food banks,
wellbeing checks and voluntary
work. No longer commuting, we
have rediscovered our local high
streets, greengrocers and cafés.
City centre bars and restaurants
may be struggling from loss of
weekday footfall, but those in
more suburban locations have
thrived during summer and
autumn 2020, when they were
able to open.
Geographically our lives are
re-orienting to new centres, new
patterns of mobility, and new
scales. It is a return to localism.11390
mentions 8269
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Mar 20 6815 mentions
mentions Dec 20
May 20 3200
mentions
1231 Sept 20
mentions
Jan 20
#SUPPORTLOCAL
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Mentions on Twitter UK
605,889 Total mentions 219,804 Total mentions
in the UK Jan-Dec 20
What we saw in 2020:
Support Local
30 2020 saw a total of 605,889 the initial level, demonstrating the stability
Twitter mentions of #supportlocal or of this shift in awareness.
“supporting local” businesses and high
Local councils hopped on the trend
streets in the UK.
throughout the year (and particularly in
The hashtag #supportlocal was already the run-up to Christmas), running district-
in occasional use before the pandemic, level campaigns in conjunction with local
but discussion spiked in line with the media to encourage people to shop locally
outbreak of coronavirus in March. Since and keep high streets alive.
April, activity has sustained at over twice
We need to
reinvent the
idea of
proximity... ... “we know it is better
for people to work
near to where they
live, and if they can
-- Carlos Moreno, go shopping nearby
and have the leisure
Professor
and services they
need around them
too, it allows them to
have a more tranquil
existence”202
Jan
A Data-Driven Trend Report
Feb
What’s coming:
The 15 Minute City First UK census since 2011,
There is widespread speculation about how this sudden Mar 21 March
An important measure of the UK’s
leap forward in remote work may reshape the city of the 2020s. demography, this year’s census will
The UK’s sharp rise in house prices during 2020 indicates how be the first conducted entirely online
many people have made the move to somewhere greener, more
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
spacious and more remote. Nonetheless, a majority of jobs
Apr London Mayoral Election, 6 May
remain necessarily face-to-face, and most of us in office-based Incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan
professions are likely to remain office-based for at least a couple is favourite to hold the position,
of days a week. following postponement of the 2020
mayoral election
Urbanists are advocating for a new geography: the “ville du
Local elections in the UK, 6 May
quart d’heure” or the quarter-hour city. The concept originated
in Paris, with mayor Anne Hidalgo championing the concept that
May UK local elections will provide a
temperature gauge on sentiment
aims to offer Parisians what they need on, or, near their doorstep, towards PM Boris Johnson and
to ensure an “ecological transformation” of the capital. The city perception of the government’s handling
of the coronavirus pandemic
is perceived no longer as a hub-and-spoke model focusing
on travel into an urban centre, but rather as a collection of Jun Record Store Day, 12 June
After over a year of suspended
neighbourhoods, each offering everything you might need within
touring, this year’s RSD will be
15 minutes travel time on foot, by bicycle, or by public transit.
especially important in terms of
A city reorganised along ‘15 minute’ lines would reduce financially supporting independent
record labels and musicians
pollution and stress, creating socially and economically mixed Jul
districts to improve overall quality of life for residents and
visitors. Paris has already invested tens of millions of euros into
31
redesigning busy, traffic-filled squares into green, pedestrianised
plazas - and building an array of cycling routes across the city to
Aug
encourage Parisians to ditch the auto entirely.
The idea is an attractive one, and spreading
beyond Paris: Bloomberg reports that “Leaders
in Barcelona, Detroit, London, Melbourne, Milan,
and Portland, Ore., are all working toward similar Sept
visions.” In the UK, Sustrans has promoted a
very similar ‘20 minute neighbourhood principle’
that has seen cities such as Glasgow invest
in producing new cycle routes and greening
Oct COP26 in Glasgow,
pavements and car parks into micro ‘parklets’.
1-12 November
As we have discussed in Trend The UK hosts the 26th UN climate
#3, Immersive Experiences, change conference in Glasgow, a
city renowned for its commitment to
there is a need to make retail sustainability
districts more attractive,
vibrant places to spend time if they
Nov Small Business Saturday,
are to reclaim our interest (and our 27 November
The virtual tour of 2020 returns,
wallets) from online alternatives.
functioning as both a digital
The 15-Minute City is an exciting showcase for small businesses
Dec
model for how this might across the UK and a mentoring
be achieved. scheme for small business-ownersA Data-Driven Trend Report
Implications
for brands
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
Î Plan ahead for the Î Decentralised offices:
companies may look to collaborate with
hybrid workweek: others to create offices closer to people’s
office-workers may not be back in the
homes, helping revitalise high streets and
office for months, but companies need to
local areas.
be preparing clear guidelines to reassure
staff through change. How many days
Î Facilitate greener,
is presence expected? Which meetings
need to be face-to-face? low-congestion options
Î Be led by user data, not other than driving:
make provisions for people to cycle to the
what’s worked before: office, shop or location, with secure bike
many companies will be rethinking their parking and changing facilities. People
locations in 2021, unfamiliar patterns want COVID-19-safe ways to travel.
such as local high street sites rebounding
before city centres are likely, but it’s bound
to vary by business.
32A Data-Driven Trend Report
Gaming Spotlight
V
ideo games have been a huge
- if sometimes underestimated -
industry for many years with bigger
revenues than gaming. In 2019, sales
of games and consoles hit
$152 billion in the US, vs. $101 billion
in the movie industry (combining box office and
Ketchum Shifts in Culture 2021
digital entertainment subscriptions). It’s a similar
story in the UK, with film box office receipts of
£1.25 billion in 2019, dwarfed by £2.1bn in sales of
physical games in 2020.
Over the course of the pandemic, games have
matured as social and emotional experiences, with
players seeking comfort and deeper community
ties alongside entertainment, from their mobile
The Playstation 5 was heralded
apps, consoles and PCs.
as a particularly immersive
Social data shows just how big this conversation experience (our #3 Trend), in part
is in the UK. Animal Crossing, the breakout due to its innovative DualSense
game of Lockdown 1, saw a massive 1.40 million haptic-feedback controller, which
conversations, driven by people’s love of the lets the player literally feel games
wholesome graphics, creativity and collaboration in new ways. Ray-tracing graphics
33 inherent in the game. Yet this was then blown out finally arrived on consoles,
of the water by excitement around the Playstation producing astonishingly realistic
5 launch, which produced three massive spikes in light effects. This technology
social media buzz: 12th June 2020 was first images simulates the path an actual beam
and game details, 16th September was the price of light would take in the physical
announcement, and 19th November was release world, bouncing off objects,
day, with a total of 1.95 million conversations in the to produce shockingly life-like
UK alone. reflections and textured, gleaming
surfaces. Fans describe new games
for the platform such as Cyberpunk
77 as “the most beautiful immersive
game ever played.”
359388
256812 mentions
mentions Nov 20
156714 Jun 20
195486
mentions mentions
Mar 20 84757 Sept 20 7174
mentions mentions
PLAYSTATION Apr 20 Oct 20
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