Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
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Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
Moselle, Germany Wachau, Austria Napa, California
Veneto, Italy Champagne, France
Banyuls, France
Claire Valley, Australia
Alto Adige, Italy
Douro Valley, Portugal
HansHans Hans
R. Schultz
R. Schultz R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim University
Hans R. Schultz 11.10.2011
18.3.2010
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. Schultz
1. Is it really getting dryer?
2. The question of precipitation and evaporation
(theory and facts)
Hans R. Schultz
summer winter
The Budyko curve
Water limited Energy
limited
Q/ETp
Ea/ETp
1
Ea/ETp
P = precipitation, 0
ETp= potential evapotranspiration 0 1
Ea = actual evapotranspiration P could decrease
Q = runoff P/ETp and/or ETp could
P could increase increase
and/or ETp could
decrease
Adapted from Farquhar and Roderick (2007) Water and the environment, Pontifical Academy of
Science, Scripta Varia, Vatican City
Dryness indices are only rough indicators of current and past vulnerability Santos et al. (2012) Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe. Clim.Res. 51: 89-103
Dryness indices are only rough indicators of
current and past vulnerability
Cook and Wolkovich (2016) Nature,
March 21 2016
Problematic: Palmer drought index
Thornthwaite ETo calculation
Santos et al. (2012) Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in
Europe. Clim.Res. 51: 89-103
The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship tells us, a
1°K (or 1°C) warming at 15 °C means about a
7% increase in evaporation but it also means a
1-2% increase in precipitation!
The average precipitable water column on earth is
about 28.5mm (Farquhar and Roderick 2007) which
would mean that 1° C warming would increase
evaporation by only roughly 2mm! (All other things
being equal). Therefore regional effects need to be
studied carefully.
Hans R. SchultzWarming has occurred and continues to do
so – what are the effects on P and ETp?
Geisenheim, Germany 10-year running mean values
Adelaide Hills (MB), Australia
19 Mount Barker, WA, Australia Mount Barker (WA)
Adelaide Hills, Lenswood, Australia
Mean temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) (°C)
Oxford, England
18 Adelaide Hills
17
16 Geisenheim
15
Oxford
14
13
12
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year Data: Meteorological office, UK
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Hans R. Schultz Australian Government, Bureau of MeteorologyWhat is happening in water limited areas, what
happens in enery limited areas
What is happening in energy limited parts of the
season, and what in water limited parts of the
season
Hans R. SchultzObservations and simulations (hydrological
summer)
precip. Oakville observed
May-October ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3° N, 122,2° W obs.
ETp Avignon 43,9° N, 4,9° E obs.
1000 1000
precip. Avignon observed
ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E obs.
900 900
potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)
precip. obs.
ETp simulated
800 precip. simulated ETp 800
700 ETp 700
precipitation (mm)
600 600
500 ETp 500
400 400
300 P 300
200
P 200
P
100 100
0 0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst
US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. Davis
Hans R. SchultzObservations and simulations (hydrological winter)
ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3° N, 122,2° W obs.
precipitation Oakville observed
November-April ETp Avignon 43,9° N, 4,9° E obs.
precipitation Avignon observed
900 900
potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)
ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E obs.
800 ETp Geisenheim simulated 800
precipitation Geisenheim obs.
precipitation Geisenheim simulated
700 700
precipitation (mm)
600 600 Oakville P
400 400
and ETp
Avignon P
350 350
300 300
P
250 Avignon ETp 250
P line
200 200
ETp
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst
Hans R. Schultz
US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. DavisIn the warm regions (esp. US and Australia no change in ETp)
(in southern France, small to no change during the past 20
years)
In China annual ETp has decreased 1-3% since 1966 (Liu et al.
2014, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 2803-2813) and run-off
increased by 1-6% (Budyko curve moves to energy limited)!
In South Africa ETp (pan evaporation) in the Cape Floristic
regions has declined substantially between 1974 and 2005 on
16 of 20 climate stations (Hoffmann et al. 2011 Pan
evaporation and wind run decline in the Cape Floristic region.
Climate Change 109:437-452)
What are the reasons?
Hans R. SchultzObservations cool areas (a priori energy limited)
November-April May-October
400 ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E (111m) 700
potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)
precipitation Geisenheim
ETp Dijon 47,2° N, 5,1° E (211m) Dijon ETp
375 650
precipitation Dijon
350 600
precipitation (mm)
325
Geisenheim
550 ETp
300 500
275 450
250
400
225
350
200
300
175 Geisenheim ETp 250
150 Dijon ETp
200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
Hans R. Schultz German data: Deutscher WetterdienstWhat are the reasons for increased ETp in some, declining
or stable ETp in other regions? ?
Aerosol impact on solar radiation could be a factor in some
regions (i.e. China)
In China and South Africa, wind speed has declined between
25 and 29% since the beginning of the seventies! In Australia
similar effects are observed.
Hans R. SchultzAverage wind speed in Geisenheim
average wind speed in summer (10 Meter height)
5 4
(November - April) (May - October)
4
3
Wind speed (m/s)
Wind speed (m/s)
3
2
2
1
1
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Year
Hans R. Schultz
Data source: Deutscher WetterdienstThese differences are also one of the resons we need
specific regional based modelling efforts
Expl. REMO-UBA, changes in drought days 2041-2070 minus
abseline 1971-2000, region Rheingau, Germany
Marco Hofmann et Hans Reiner Schultz unpublishedIssues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. SchultzThe variety question is alway launched during the climate
change debate.
Cabernet Sauvignon regions – what has changed?
Hans R. SchultzThe variety question is alway launched during the
climate change debate.
Cabernet Sauvignon regions – what has changed? A re-analysis of John
Gladstones (1992 Viticulture and Environment, Winetitles) climate data
sets
Bordeaux, France
Napa Valley,
California, USA Coonawarra, Australia
Barossa Valley, AustraliaAverage temperature
Napa
Barossa Gladstones 1992 reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
Bordeaux 22
Coonawarra
average temperature (°C)
20
18
16
14
Bordeaux, 41 years Coonawarra, Australia
Coonawarra, 30 years Barossa Valley, Australia
12 Barossa, 16 years Napa Valley, California
Bordeaux, France
Napa, 30 years
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
northern hemis. May July Sept. May July Sept.
southern hemis. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar.
Hans R. SchultzMaximum temperature
Gladstones 1992 reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
30
average max. temperature (°C)
28
26
24
22
20
Bordeaux, France
18 Coonawarra, Australia
Barossa Valley, Australia
Napa Valley, California
16
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
northern hemis. May July Sept. May July Sept.
southern hemis. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar.
Hans R. SchultzMinimum temperature
Gladstones 1992 reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
16
average min. temperature (°C)
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8 Bordeaux, France
Coonawarra, Australia
7 Barossa Valley, Australia
Napa Valley, California
6
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
northern hemis. May July Sept. May July Sept.
southern hemis. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar.
Hans R. SchultzDay-night temperature difference
Bordeaux, France reanalyses
Gladstones 1992 Coonawarra, Australia 1990-2015 (25 years)
max.-min. diff. temperature (°C) 18 Barossa Valley, Australia
Napa Valley, California
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
northern hemis. May July Sept. May July Sept.
southern hemis. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar.
Hans R. Schultzrainfall
Gladstones 1992 reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
90 Bordeaux, France
Coonawarra, Australia
80 Barossa Valley, Australia
Napa Valley, California
70
rainfall (mm)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
northern hemis. May July Sept. May July Sept.
southern hemis. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar.
Hans R. SchultzWe need to research the plasticity of varieties more
Sadras, Schultz, Girona, Marsal (2012): FAO crop responses to water
Hans R. Schultz 18.04.2016 28Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution
1. Where is the water going?
2. Variability and continuity
3. soils: the unknown half
Hans R. Schultz3. Soils the unknown half
Our most valuable resource is a very large climate player
but we do know little about it
Expanding the role of agricultural soil GHG mitigation will require an integrated research support
and implementation platform (a more intensive monitoring network is needed)
Paustian et al. (2016) Climate-smart soils, Vol. 532, 49-57, Nature
Hans R. Schultz3. Soils are the key to sustainability
We need to learn more about GHG emission and mitigation,
water, fertilizer, carbon and nutrient management
It takes 2000 years to build 10 cm of soil
Every year we loose 24 Billion Tons of soil due to erosion
(extreme events will increase this number)
This is 3.4 tons per person and year and is equivalent to 60€
per person and year = 420 Billion € per year
Hans R. Schultz 18.04.2016 31Climate effects on soils, strong increase in soil
temperature (the Potsdam time-series)
Since 1889 strong warming May-August (1m depth 2.4° - 3.2°C !!)
1,6
mean trend 1889-2007
1,4 ***
1,2
absolute trend (°C)
**
1,0 ***
Trend in °K
0,8
**
0,6
**
0,4
*
0,2
0,0
air soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m
soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature
Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011
Hans R. Schultz
Hans R. Schultzsoil GHG emission estimation
soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany
the future
simulated annual soil respiration rate
620 10-year running average
Projections A1 RCP 8,5
Projections A2
600 Projections B1 RCP 2,6
580
(g C m year)
560 + 15 %
-2
540
This change to date
520 equates to an
additional emission
500
of roughly 1 t CO2
480 /ha/year = for all
1880 1920 1960 2000 2040
European
2080
vineyards
Year
3.5 Mio t CO2
Hans R. Schultzsoil GHG emission estimation
Italian data
estimated annual soil respiration rate
Decrease in the past due to shifts in
precipitation rates
800
750
(g C m year)
700
+ 16 %
-2
650
600 Chianti, Italy
10-year average
Rome, Italy
550 10-year average
1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060
Year
Hans R. Schultzsoil GHG emission estimation
Australian data
estimated annual soil respiration rate
900
Perth, Australia
10-year average
Margaret River, Australia
850 10-year average
We need to validate (or
(g C m year)
discredit) these models
800 and trends
-2
750
700
650
1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060
Year
Hans R. SchultzModeling of soil nitrogen dynamics (first estimates)
Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha )
220 220
-1
Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha )
-1
soil dry and
Col 7 vsstony
Col 9
A Löeß-clay B
Col 7 vs Col 10
(low organic matter)
Col 7 vs Col 11 (high in organic matter)
200 200
1961-1990
180 1971-2000 180
1981-2010
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
210 220 230 240 250 260 270 220 230 240 250 260 270
1. August 1. Sept. 1. Oct.
Day of the Year
Hans R. Schultz Schultz, Ehlig, Hassemer-Schwarz unpublishedSumary
We need to analyse all climate data region by region for
strategic decisions with respect to water
Varietal plasticity needs to be studied
As scientists we need to focus more on the soil
Hans R. Schultz 18.04.2016 37Merci pour votre attention
Thank you for the invitation; and
Marco Hofmann for his modelling efforts
Inaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri for acess to French
climate data
Hans R. Schultz
Hans R. Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim UniversityYou can also read
