International Policy Forum - 2 April 2020
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COVID-19 in Japan Cumulative number of confirmed Number of confirmed deaths Number of confirmed cases per cases (as of 10:30am 1 April) (as of 10:30 am 1 April) excluding day (as of 10:30 am 1 April) excluding the Diamond Princess the Diamond Princess) 2233 66 234 Cumulative number of confirmed Cumulative number of deaths Number of confirmed cases per cases and deaths (as of 10:30am 1 April) day (as of 10:30 1 April) (as of 10:30 April) 2500 200 300 180 250 2000 160 140 200 1500 120 100 150 1000 80 100 60 500 40 50 20 0 0 0 06-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb 21-Feb 26-Feb 01-Apr 01-Apr 06-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb 21-Feb 26-Feb 02-Mar 07-Mar 12-Mar 17-Mar 22-Mar 27-Mar 02-Mar 07-Mar 12-Mar 17-Mar 22-Mar 27-Mar 01-Apr 06-Feb 11-Feb 16-Feb 21-Feb 26-Feb 02-Mar 07-Mar 12-Mar 17-Mar 22-Mar 27-Mar Deaths Cases
Confirmed cases by prefecture (as of 10:30am 1 April) The cumulative number of confirmed cases by prefecture (top 10) (as of 10:30 1 April) 101- Tokyo 51-100 Osaka 41-50 31-40 Aichi 21-30 11-20 Hokkaido 1-10 No reported cases Chiba Hyogo Kanagawa Saitama Kyoto Fukuoka 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Government’s response to COVID-19 outbreak Jan 16 Jan Index case confirmed in Japan 27 Jan COVID-19 categorised as designated infectious disease 29 Jan First government charter flight from Wuhan to Tokyo 30 Jan Novel Coronavirus Response Headquarters established in PM’s Office Feb 5 Feb Diamond Princess put under quarantine in Yokohama using Quarantine Act 13 Feb First emergency economic package unveiled First death from COVID-19 confirmed 24 Feb Government Expert Panel “next 2 weeks critically important” 26 Feb Calls on event organisers to cancel, postpone or downsize events 27 Feb Request schools to shut down (end of spring recess in April) 29 Feb PM Abe’s first press conference on COVID-19 outbreak Mar 9 Mar Quarantine requested of visitors from mainland China and South Korea 10 Mar Second emergency economic package unveiled 13 Mar Diet approves law granting PM power to declare state of emergency 19 Mar Expert Panel says policies having an effect and schools can be re-opened 24 Mar PM agrees with IOC to postpone 2020 Tokyo Olympics 25 Mar Tokyo Governor Koike: “Tokyo in critical phase entering explosion in infections” 27 Mar Imposes entry ban on 21 European countries and Iran 28 Mar Government agrees Basic Action Guidelines on COVID-19 countermeasures 28-29 Mar Greater Tokyo Area, Osaka and Fukuoka governors ask residents to stay home for 2 days 31 March LDP’s policy proposal on economic measures
Economic stimulus measures First Package (13 February): ¥15.3 billion • Strengthening border controls to minimise spread of the virus • Development of vaccines and virus test kits • Support for returnees from Wuhan • ¥500 billion of low-interest loans for SMEs impacted by the virus Second Package (10 March): ¥430 billion + ¥1.6 trillion low-interest loans for SMEs • Subsidies for working parents who had to miss work to care for their children • Small emergency loans to individuals facing income decline due to the virus • Subsidies for the self-employed • Interest-free loans for SMEs whose sales declined, (at least 15-20%); • Cash flow support for businesses in the tourism industry
Upcoming third economic stimulus package • Projected to be worth around ¥60 trillion (>10% of Japan’s GDP), including ¥20 trillion in fiscal measures • Expected to be approved by the LDP on 6 April and the Cabinet on 7 April – possible passage by the Diet before the Golden Week holiday in early May • More than ¥10 trillion (equivalent to a 5-percentage point cut in the consumption tax rate) to be handed out as a combination of cash, subsidies and vouchers: o Includes cash handouts for households facing a sharp loss of income and for small businesses and sole proprietors whose sales have plummeted o Expands scope of a 12-month grace period for corporate tax payments by SMEs affected by fallout from the pandemic o Large number of financial support measures for SMEs suffering from or expecting to suffer from COVID-19 o Each ministry collecting and negotiating measures with the Ministry of Finance o LDP also putting forward recommendations of measures to be taken for each sector
Content of third emergency response package Examples of measures suggested by the LDP • Secure screening and systems for medical provision • International cooperation to enhance vaccine development and therapeutic disciplines • Promote crisis management using artificial intelligence and data infrastructure – e- government solutions, individual number cards, telecommuting and remote education • Expand broadcasting content globally via cooperation with foreign broadcasters to increase awareness of Japan’s response and promote Japan as a tourist destination • Launch a one-stop web platform service to summarise and proactively disseminate information to the international community about Japan’s response • Issue food vouchers to promote local produce and travel vouchers for post-crisis travel • Support for the entertainment industry by subsidising large-scale live and sporting events • Subsidies and/or tax relief to liqueur manufactures • Etc. etc.
If government declares state of emergency… Main measures governors will be able to execute Request residents to refrain from going out Expropriate or request the sale of specified other than when urgent and unavoidable goods with the owners’ prior consent Request or issue instructions on restrictions on Request or issue instructions on designated the use of school buildings, childcare facilities, sellers of medical products to distribute entertainment establishments, events, etc. medical products and equipment Conduct surveys and surveillance to prevent Use land or buildings to open temporary rise in prices of daily necessities. Request that medical facilities to ensure medical provision relevant business associations stabilise prices of daily necessities Extend end-dates on administrative rights and Request/instruct designated transport business interests. Secure finance for emergency operators to transport emergency supplies situations from public financial institutions
Political implications of the crisis
The public response 47% now believe the government is handling it well 90% are strongly or somewhat concerned about the impact (as of 27-29 March) of COVID-19 on Japan’s economy (as of 10 March) Public response to the government’s handling of the crisis Concerns regarding the impact of the coronavirus on (as of 27-29 March) Japanese economy (10 March) 4% 1% 21-23 Strongly concerned Feb 40 50 5% Concerned to some degree Not concerned very 30% much 27-29 Mar 47 44 60% Not concerned at all 0 20 40 60 80 100 Other Believe the government is handling well Do not believe the government is handling well Residents in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Views on priority economic countermeasures Saitama, and Yamanashi (27-29 March) Support for households 5% February 43 56 14% Management of 34% employment stability Support for financing of companies March 83 15 19% Consumption stimulus 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Other Refraining from going outside homes than usual 28% Going outside homes as usual
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Favourable Unfavourable Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Abe Cabinet approval ratings Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Increasing favourable ratings and decreasing unfavourable ratings Jan-19 Apr-19 17 Jul-19 March 2020 Oct-19 Favourable: 43% Unfavourable: 41% Jan-20 Apr-20
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 LDP SDP Oct-13 Komeito Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 JCP Jan-16 Political party support rates Apr-16 DP→DPFP Jul-16 Oct-16 Reiwa Shinsengumi Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 JIP Jan-18 CDP Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 36.5% Jul-19 March 2020 Guard the national from NHK Oct-19 Jan-20 11 Apr-20
Upcoming political schedule 7 Apr Cabinet to decide FY2020 supplementary budget 2020 26 Apr Shizuoka 4 constituency by-election (House of Reps) By Golden Week FY2020 supplementary budget to be approved by Diet ? 10-12 Jun G7 Summit (by videoconference) Mid-Jun Government to decide 2020 “Honebuto” 17 Jun Current Diet Session Ends – possible extension 5 Jul Tokyo Gubernatorial Election ? Extraordinary Diet Session 1 Nov Second referendum on Osaka Metropolis Plan 3 Nov US Presidential Election 21-22 Nov G20 Summit @ Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ? End of Dec Cabinet Decides FY2021 Budget Bill 2021 Jan-Jun Ordinary Diet Session 23 Jul-5 Sep Games of the XXXII Olympiad and XVI Paralympics 30 Sep End of Current LDP Presidency Term 17 Oct Latest Date to Conduct General Election
Impact on deliberations in the Diet New legislation • Digital platforms law o Setting rules on the practices of digital platforms companies o Bill submitted to the Diet on 18 February but schedule of deliberations sliding • Super City Initiative o Creating cities that use AI, big data and other advanced technologies. o Bill submitted on 13 March but schedule of deliberations sliding • 5G promotion o Promoting supply and development of 5G along with cyber security and providing support for the adoption of 5G o Bill submitted on 18 February Law revisions • Act on Procedure of Constitutional Referendum o Bill submitted to the House of Representatives Commission on the Constitution on 20 January, but prospects for deliberation unclear • Energy supply resilience bill o Measures including a new scheme to help businesses introduce renewable energy o Bill submitted on 25 February • Road Traffic Act o Allows instalment of road infrastructure for automated vehicles o Bill submitted on 3 March 13 17 • Copyright Act o Enforcing stricter piracy penalties o Bill submitted on 10 March
Conclusion • Although policy resources have shifted to deal with the coronavirus crisis, other policy discussions are still progressing too – digital transformation, healthcare reform, constitutional amendment, energy supply, etc. • Massive economic stimulus from the government is leading to new initiatives that will have to be launched and funded in a very short period of time. • Postponing the Olympics is creating a new political dynamic, including the prospect of elections earlier than previously expected, once the most acute period of crisis is over. LDP endorsing Koike for Tokyo gubernatorial election in July feeds into the new dynamic. • Possibility of Ordinary Diet session extension has increased with the postponement of the Olympics. • Despite early criticism of Abe’s handling of the crisis, support for him and his Cabinet has risen because of the measures taken and has, somehow, strengthened his position. Even so, a prolonged economic slump could pose unpresented political challenges. • Opposition remains split and weak – prospects of elections and extended Diet session may provide new incentives to try to align but attempts so far have largely failed.
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