Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers - LA TROBE UNIVERSITY'S SUBMISSION TO SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF WORK AND WORKERS
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Office of the Vice-Chancellor LA TROBE UNIVERSITY’S SUBMISSION TO SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF WORK AND WORKERS February 2018 Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers ENQUIRIES Leon Morris Chief of Staff latrobe.edu.au La Trobe University Victoria 3086
Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers INTRODUCTION La Trobe University welcomes the opportunity to participate in this inquiry led by the Select Committee on the Future of Work and Workers, especially the focus of the inquiry on the impact that technological changes will have on regional Australians. Determining the “impact of technological and other change on the future of work and workers” is an ongoing challenge for policy makers, governments and educators concerned with training today’s graduates for the jobs of tomorrow. La Trobe submits that rather than fearing technological change, Australia, with its resilient economy and world-class education system, should be in a better position than most countries to embrace what the future holds. History has shown that some of the predictions about the future of work have come to fruition while others did not. What is clear is that whatever changes are ahead, Australia will require a skilled and adaptable workforce. The immediate challenge is to ensure that regional and rural Australians will be able to adapt to foreseen and unforeseen changes with comparable capacity to metropolitan Australians. The longer-term challenge will be to ensure that Australia’s education and research system continues to be underpinned by adequate public investment. Universities are not immune to the challenges of technological disruption. La Trobe’s recently-launched Strategic Plan (2018-2022), a copy of which is attached, outlines how La Trobe will tackle these challenges. This submission is structured as follows: Comments on the Inquiry’s Terms of Reference How La Trobe is tackling the future 2 La Trobe University
Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers
COMMENTS ON THE INQUIRY’S TERMS OF REFERENCE
a) the future earnings, job security, employment status and working patterns of Australians
The challenge of identifying the impact of technological and other change on the future of work and workers is not a new one. Since
the famous economist John Maynard Keynes coined the term “technological unemployment”, there have been numerous studies aiming
to quantify the risk to current jobs.
The impact of technology is often framed in negative terms – job losses, the end of work as we know it and middle-aged workers with
obsolete skills. In their oft-cited 2013 study 1, Frey and Osborne examined how susceptible jobs are to computerisation and concluded
that about 47% of total US employment was at risk. They predicted that transport and logistics workers, office support staff as well as
workers in sales and services were among the mostly likely to be affected by computerisation. Other studies estimated equivalent
figures of 35% for Britain and 40% for Japan.
Subsequent studies, including by Osborne, have revisited the 2013 figures and painted a less bleak picture of the impact of
technological change. Osborne’s 2016 report entitled ‘The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030’ revised the estimates of jobs
vulnerable to technology disruption to 18.7% for the US and 21.3% for Britain, with Osborne claiming that “technological change is
delivering a lot of prosperity”. 2 A special report of The Economist 3 on whether smarter machines will cause mass unemployment
makes the case that history shows us that “technology has ended up creating more jobs than it destroys.” According to James Bessen,
an economist at the Boston University School of Law, automation tends to redefine rather than destroy jobs. Rather than displacing
jobs, technology reallocates workers, requiring them to learn new skills.
In its recently-published ‘Australia 2030’ 4 report, Innovation and Science Australia (ISA) makes the point that the way to respond to
the changing nature of work is “by equipping all Australians with skills relevant to 2030”. The report encourages greater adoption of
digital technology to increase Australia’s annual GDP growth by 0.7 to 1.2%. The prediction is that jobs will actually improve, but new
skills and capabilities will be needed to do them.
b) the different impact of that change on Australians, particularly on regional Australians, depending on their
demographic and geographic characteristics;
c) the wider effects of that change in inequality, the economy, government and society (talk about the link between
skills development and economic development);
La Trobe welcomes the focus of the inquiry on the specific impact that technological change is having on regional Australians. La
Trobe University has four campuses outside of metropolitan Melbourne – in Bendigo, Albury-Wodonga, Shepparton and Mildura –
and is one of the leading higher education providers across regional Victoria. Over the years, more than 35, 000 students have
graduated from La Trobe’s regional campuses. In 2015, gross regional product (GRP) in regional Victoria was projected to be around
$100 million higher as a result of La Trobe graduates entering the workforce. 5
Despite the contribution of regionally-delivered higher education to regional economic development, there is a significant gap between
regional and metropolitan economic development. A 2016 report 6 by the Office of the Chief Economist argues that although
Australia’s economy has recorded more than 25 years of continuous economic growth, some regions have benefitted more than others,
with important implications for the sustainability of remote and regional areas. As reflected in Figure 7.2 of the report, this uneven
performance is also reflected in regional employment figures. Capital cities performing much better than their regional counterparts,
despite coming off a higher base.
1 Benedikt Frey, Carl & A. Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?.
Oxford Martin. 114.10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019.
2 Fewer job positions in danger of losing to robots: study, The Australian, November 2017
3 Automation and anxiety, The impact on jobs (Special) Report, The Economist, 2016
4 Australia 2030, Prosperity Through Innovation, Innovation and Science Australia
5 Cadence Economics (2017), ‘La Trobe University’s Regional Economic Contribution’
6 Australian Industry Report 2016 (Summary), Office of the Chief Economist, Chapter 7
La Trobe University 3Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers
Source: Office of the Chief Economist Australian Industry Report 2016
The report attempts to identify the factors that have a bearing on regional performance including agglomeration (the concentration of
people and industry within a region), specialisation (where industrial specialisation lowers the cost of production), presence of
infrastructure, structural change (the distribution of output, investment employment across industries and regions) and knowledge
Intensity. The latter is a key driver of productivity and economic growth. The report argues, “As industries transition, workers need to
acquire the skills to adapt to improvements in technology, knowledge and innovation.” 7
The impact of cuts to higher education on regional and national development
La Trobe submits that the key to ‘protecting’ regional Australians from the impacts of technological change is to make sure that they
have access to the same education and skills options and pathways as are available in metropolitan Australia. This is currently not the
case.
In the December 2017 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the federal Government announced major funding cuts to
universities and the introduction of performance targets to determine growth in public funding for bachelor degrees from 2020. These
funding cuts will have a disproportionate impact on regional University campuses because these campuses are more reliant on
government support, and have limited access to other sources of funding. The funding cap will entrench participation disparities for
disadvantaged students and diminish La Trobe’s capacity to close the gap in participation rates between regional and metropolitan
areas 8. The likely impact will be a more limited suite of education options to provide the skilled workforce needed by local industry.
This will be detrimental to both the regional and national economy.
This is why La Trobe argues that the Federal Government should ensure that the recent MYEFO cuts will not detrimentally impact
improvement in regional higher education participation and achievement. It is noteworthy in this regard that Government has recently
announced special arrangements for two regional universities, Southern Cross University and the University of the Sunshine Coast.
These arrangements could be more systematically applied to remove regional impacts from student caps. Additionally, there are a
number of other initiatives that could be introduced to acknowledge the higher cost of delivery on regional campuses 9 and to ensure
that universities with regional campuses will continue to deliver the skills that regional Australia requires. These include:
Top-up funding for universities delivering in the regions who exceed grant scheme caps. For example, if La Trobe increased its
regionally-delivered student load by 10%, top of funding of $9 million would be required.
Targeted funding for innovative program development involving tertiary education institutions.
Delivery and implementation of flagship programs (such as medicine) from regional campuses would transform regional medical
systems and catalyse regional health research.
7 Australian Industry Report 2016, Office of the Chief Economist, p. 114
8 In some regional areas, participation and attainment rates in higher education are less than half those of metropolitan cities.
9 According to Deloitte Access Economics, “teaching and scholarship costs are 17% higher for regional students” (The Cost of
Delivery of Higher Education’ report, released by the Commonwealth Government in May 2017).
4 La Trobe UniversityInquiry into the Future of Work and Workers
Targeted incentives for activities such as work-integrated learning (WIL) to foster industry partnerships and support regional
economic development.
Introduction in regional Australia of a model based on the UK ‘degree apprenticeship’ (see e) below).
d) the adequacy of Australia’s laws, including industrial relations laws and regulations, policies and institutions to
prepare Australians for that change;
Although higher education policy settings are not the main focus of this inquiry, universities are some of Australia’s most important
institutions. Policy settings must be flexible enough to allow them to innovate in their delivery.
La Trobe University is currently in the final stages of preparing its next Enterprise Bargaining Agreement for endorsement by
employees. This will then replace the current Agreement, which nominally expired in January 2017. In this process, one of the aims
has been for the University to have a simple, condensed and modernised agreement, which is easy to navigate, and which will stand the
University in good stead to achieve the goals of its new Strategic Plan.
e) international efforts to address that change; and
The UK’s degree apprenticeship model warrants closer consideration. This model combines full-time paid work with free part-time
university study, with employer contributions through an Apprenticeship Levy, which was introduced in May 2017). Apprentices are
employed on a full-time basis for between one and six years, working at least 30 hours every week and enjoying blocks of practical on-
the-job training. Simultaneously, they study a paid-for Bachelors or Masters degree at a partner university, using whichever flexible
study method suits the employer’s needs - such as distance learning, blended learning or block mode learning. This is a good example
of how government, industry and universities can work together to devise a whole-of-system response for creating the degrees and
skills that employers seek in their new employees. It could be one way of addressing skills shortages and lower participation and
attainment rates in regional Australia.
f) any related matters
Australia will always be impacted by global challenges and should continue to engage in global strategies to address future challenges.
As argued by ISA, Australia is in a unique position to be confident (though not complacent) about the future. Rather than fearing the
disruption and change that technology will bring, Australians should view these changes as opportunities or ‘seeds’ of renewed
growth 10, and take up the opportunity for a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific.
10 Australia 2030, Prosperity Through Innovation (Summary), Innovation and Science Australia, p. 1
La Trobe University 5Inquiry into the Future of Work and Workers
HOW LA TROBE IS TACKLING THE FUTURE
La Trobe’s Strategic Plan 2018-2022
Universities are facing the challenges of digital disruption and new expectations of the suitability of graduates for employment, and
their role in economic activity.
In its recently-launched Strategic Plan, La Trobe addresses this challenge head on and outlines the ways in which it will seek to
empower its graduates with the skills required for the future workforce. With its focus on four core objectives – student and graduate
employability, being the unrivalled partner of choice for industry, education and the community, research excellence and an
outstanding student experience – La Trobe is confident that it is on the right path to equip its students with the skills they need to
succeed in those jobs that exist today, and those that will emerge in the near future.
La Trobe suggests that there will be four features that will redefine the university of the future, which will:
provide customised, on-demand learning offered in multiple modes
offer a mix of degrees and shorter cycle qualifications and credentials
provide life-long career management for students and alumni, which will include the ability to top up standard university
qualifications to address skills gaps through a working life
become physical sites for co-location and collaboration with industry and other partners for research and innovation.
La Trobe’s Career Capability Framework (see Appendix 1)
While working to anticipate the demands of the future, La Trobe is simultaneously engaged in meetings the demands of today’s
employers. The recent results of the Employer Satisfaction Survey (ESS) show that, despite media comments to the contrary, the
majority of employers (84%) are satisfied with university graduates. This confirms that universities are on the right track, further
reinforcing the ongoing need for, and benefits of, public investment in tertiary education. La Trobe was rated second among Victorian
institutions, and eighth nationally, with 86.6% employer satisfaction demonstrating that the University’s sector-leading Career
Capability Framework (see below) is helping students to develop the skills and capabilities that businesses are looking for.
6 La Trobe UniversityInquiry into the Future of Work and Workers
Appendix 1: La Trobe University’s career ready advantage programme 11
Career Ready Capability Framework
11 The cornerstone of Career Ready Advantage is the Capability Framework. The elements of the Career Ready Capability Framework
have been co-designed with employers. This was complemented by extensive research into the future of work and the skills and
attributes that are predicted as being essential for the future. For further information, please visit:
http://www.latrobe.edu.au/students/careers
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