General Weather Information November 2-4, 2018 - Rain event (2)
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General Weather Information
Rain event
November 2-4, 2018
(2)
New Brunswick Hazard Risk Assessment (Produced November 1, 2018)
Brief Summary Duration Confidence Level
A series of low pressure systems will bring Worst conditions to
waves of rain at times heavy beginning Friday last 10 to 14 hours High
morning through Saturday night. Strong on Saturday.
westerly winds are also expected to develop in Moderate
behind the low Saturday night and into
Sunday. Low
Areas to Monitor
Onset Timing Heaviest rain (>50 mm)
Northwest NB: Early Friday morning
Northeast NB: Friday morning Strongest winds (gusts >70 km/h)
Southwest NB: Early Friday morning
Southeast NB: Friday morning
Impacts
Similar storms in the past have caused:
•Some travel disruptions
•Power outages
•Localized flooding
This page is an experimental summary page. Confidence levelPage is subjective and refers to the overall confidence in the weather scenario based
2 – November-1-18
on its complexity and model performance. Low and moderate-confidence storms should be given a wider margin of error. The map highlights
regions of higher probability of occurrence of certain hazards but these hazards could extend beyond the highlighted areas depicted on the map.
Impacts are based on documented occurrences that have resulted from storms with similar extent and severity of hazards.
Nouveau-Brunswick; évaluation du risque de danger (produit le 1 novembre, 2018)
Bref résumé Durée Niveau de confiance
Une série de systèmes dépressionnaire Les pires conditions
provoquera des vagues de pluie parfois de 10 à 14 heures en Élevé
abondantes du vendredi matin jusqu’au samedi.
samedi soir. De forts vents d'ouest devraient Modéré
également se former derrière la dépression le
samedi soir et dimanche matin. Faible
Régions à surveiller
Début de l’événement Pluies les plus fortes (>50mm)
Région nord-ouest: Tôt vendredi matin Vents les plus forts (rafales >70 km/h)
Région nord-est: vendredi matin
Région sud-ouest: Tôt vendredi matin
Région sud-est: vendredi matin
Impacts
Des tempêtes similaires dans le passé ont
causé:
•Des pannes de courant
•Quelques perturbations de voyage
•Inondations localisées
Cette page est un sommaire expérimental. Le niveau de confiance est subjectif et se réfère à la confiance globale dans le scénario météo en
fonction de sa complexité et de sa performance. Les systèmes dePage 3 – November-1-18
confiance faible et modérée devraient avoir une marge d'erreur plus large. La
carte met en évidence les régions de probabilité plus élevée d'apparition de certains dangers, mais ces dangers pourraient s'étendre au-delà des
zones surlignées représentées sur la carte. Les impacts sont basés sur des occurrences documentées qui ont résulté d‘événement avec une
étendue et une gravité similaires des dangers.Alerts in effect – Nov. 1 morning
The systems are also
expected to affect other
parts of Atlantic Canada.
Page 4 – November-1-18Special Weather Statement
Issued at 2018-11-01 07:53 UTC by Environment Canada:
Another significant rain event likely for Friday and Saturday.
A pair of weather systems will bring more rain to New Brunswick this weekend. The first of these
systems will bring some rain on Friday with a second system bringing more rain on Saturday. Latest
indications show these two systems combined could give in excess of 50 mm to the southern half of
the province, with the possibility some areas could reach 80 mm or more.
Rainfall warnings will likely be required as the system draws nearer to the region and details become
more clear.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe
weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.
Please continue to monitor weather alerts for New Brunswick at:
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nb
Page 5 – November-1-18Weather depiction – Nov. 2-3
Valid 12z Nov. 2 – Friday morning Valid 18z Nov. 2 – Friday afternoon
Periods of rain beginning in the south. Periods of rain, especially heavy vicinity the
Page 6 – November-1-18
Bay of Fundy.Weather depiction – Nov. 2-3
Valid 00z Nov. 3 – Friday evening Valid 12z Nov. 3 – Saturday morning
Periods of rain over eastern areas. Drizzle or Second round of rain, more intense than
Page 7 – November-1-18
the first, approaching from the south.
showers for western sections.Weather depiction – Nov. 3-4
Valid 00z Nov. 4 – Saturday evening Valid 06z Nov. 4 – Saturday night
Periods of rain continuing. Low moving northeast Rain tapering to showers or drizzle. Strong westerly
Page 8 – November-1-18
and intensifying. winds developing.Predicted rainfall amounts (mm)
Friday morning through Saturday near midnight
30-40 35-45
Wet snow is also
possible on Friday
over higher terrain in
northwestern parts of 45-55
the province.
Accumulations may
reach 1-3cm. 50-60
60-80+
Page 9 – November-1-18Predicted winds (km/h) – Nov. 3-4
Wind direction except gusting
W – westerly W 40 to 80 along parts
gusting 70 of the coast
W 40
gusting 60 W 40
gusting 70
W 40
Saturday gusting 60
W 40
night and gusting 70
Sunday
morning
Page 10 – November-1-18Contact
Jill Maepea
Warning Preparedness Meteorologist
506-452-4166 office
jill.maepea@canada.ca
Environment & Climate Change
Canada’s Weather Page
www.weather.gc.ca
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