FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri

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FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
12 March 2021
     WEEKLY
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
Weather
                   - South African weather forecast
                   - International weather forecast

                   International Agriculture
                   - South American crop conditions
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT    - Plant progress in Brazil
                    - March WASDE report
CONTENTS
                   Local Agriculture
                   - Imports and exports of maize
                   - Field agent reports

                   Currencies
                   - Overview - USD/ZAR
                   - Oil price
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
LOCAL

WEATHER      14-day weather forecast

             .Drier weather is predicted for the central parts of the interior. Soil
             moisture levels are dropping fast due to high temperatures.
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
USA Drought Monitor                                               9 March 2021   12 March 2013
According to the most recent drought monitor, above-average
dry conditions still prevail in North America. Moderate rain
showers are predicted for areas oof the corn belt, which should
provide slight relief.

See the comparison against the same time period in 2013..
Follow the link to stay up to date with the latest drought
conditions in North America:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx
INTERNATIONAL
WEATHER
.
10-day weather forecast: South America

Continuous wet weather can be expected for the
producing regions in Brazil and Argentina.
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
INTERNATIONAL

WEATHER
• In the Mato Grosso district soybean
  producers suffered severe damage due to
  heavy rainfall during he first few days of
  March (approximately 260mm)
• The Wora Mutum district received almost
  280 mm of rain within two weeks.
• Producers in the Rio Verde area confirmed
  roughly 35% damage within a sampled
  area of 6 320 ha.
• More rain expected in Brazil in the coming
  week.
 -
https://www.canalrural.com.br/agronegocio/
soja-podre-chuva-mt/
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
SOUTH AMERICA
Agriculture
                               South American crop conditions up to 5 March 2021

                  Soybeans                                                                 Corn
                         10%
                   20%                                                                   16%
                                                                                                 25%
                                                     Good to excellent                                                Good to excellent
                                                     Average                                                          Average
                                                     Poor                                                             Poor
                         70%                                                              59%
                                     9%
                                                                                                       6%
      15%         15%
                                               44%
                                                                          12%
                                                                                                                50%
                               47%                                                  30%         44%

            70%                      2019/20
                                                                         58%                          2019/20
     Previous Week
                                                                         Previous Week
                         Soybean conditions deteriorated slightly
                         since the previous week due to wet
                         weather affecting the quality.
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
BRAZIL

AGRICULTURE
         Brazilian soybean harvest up to 5 March 2021

                                                        In the Mato
                                                        Grosso district of
                                                        Brazil 67,2% of
                                                        soybeans have
                                                        been harvested.
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
BRAZIL

AGRICULTURE
         Brazilian corn plant tempo up to 5 March 2021

                                                         In the Mato Grosso
                                                         district of Brazil the
                                                         safrinha corn plant
                                                         pace is currently at
                                                         73,3%

                                                         In the Paraná district
                                                         of Brazil the safrinha
                                                         corn plant pace is
                                                         currently at 28%
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
INTERNATIONAL
AGRICULTURE
                World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates March 2021
                 In its monthly WASDE Report the USDA increased their forecast for corn world ending stocks to
                 287,67 million ton. This caused a negative reaction in prices after trade expectations earlier the
                 week showed a reduction to 284,23 million ton.

                 Market players were also bearish about American ending stocks, but the USDA surprised when
                 they left figures unchanged since February at 1502 billion bushels.

                 There is also some uncertainty about the actual size of the South American soybean crop. The
                 USDA has increased its production forecast for 2019/20 and 2020/21, but the impact of heavy
                 rains on conditions might be reflected in future estimates.

                                     March 2020/21             Trade Expectation             USDA February
                      Corn                 287.67                      284.23                      286.53
                   Soybeans                83.74                        82.66                       83.36
FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT WEEKLY - 12 March 2021 - Rand Agri
LOCAL EXPORTS 2020/21
AGRICULTURE
                                                                         Destination for most exports:
                        •       Exports week ending 5 March: 21 497 t
                                                                          WMAZ exports:
  White Maize           •
                        •
                                Previous week: 21 745 t
                                Imports: 0 t                              Zimbabwe 11 770 t
                        •       Export intentions: 171 945 t
                                 (Next 8 weeks)

                            •    Exports week ending 5 March: 11 849 t
                            •    Previous week: 10 423 t                  YMAZ exports:
  Yellow Maize              •    Imports: 0 t                             Zimbabwe 6 452 t
                            •    Export intentions: 106 079 t
                                 (Next 8 Weeks)
North West Province and Western Free State
Summer crops in North West Province are starting to suffer as a result of high temperatures and dry
weather. Damage is increasing by the day. There are however some areas where soil moisture is
relatively good, but the condition of the majority of grains seriously degenerated due to current
weather conditions.
More than 80% of the maize have already been pollinated. The lack of rain will however affect the
quality of the kernels. These areas urgently need rain to limit the extent of the damage.
Extensive hail damage occurred in Ventersdorp, Makokskraal and parts of Derby. Figures suggest as
much as 50% damage to maize and 30% to sunflower in the areas where hail fell. Approximately               RAND AGRI
1 300 ha of maize and sunflower plantings at Rietspruitdam / Ventersdorp also suffered hail damage.
There are certain areas where crop conditions are very good, for example between Ventersdorp /             FIELD AGENT OVERVIEW
Potchefstroom and Syferbult. Rainfall of between 0 mm and 20 mm was reported in the past week.
Feedback by Sakkie Koekemoer, Grain buyer, North West Province

Mpumalanga
Producers started harvesting soybeans early, but with great difficulty due to the wet soil conditions.
Many of the soybeans are changing colour and dropping leaves. The harvesting process of the
remainder will start in earnest by mid-April. Maize is at an advanced stage and some producer
should start harvesting by the end of April. Late maize plantings, including lower leaves remain
green, which might delay the harvesting process.
In general, we can expect an average to above average maize and soybean yield.
Feedback by Gerhard Reyneke - Grain Buyer, Southern Mpumalanga

Eastern Free State
Early maize is 80 to 100% developed, but later plantings now need rain to support optimal kernel
development and limit loss of kernels. First plantings of soybean are reaching maturity and some
farmers in the area have already started harvesting. Soybean crops are looking promising and we
look forward to the feedback from the first harvesters about yields. Generally speaking, crops are still
looking good, while rain will be very favourable to ensure the full potential of crops is reached.
Feedback from Christo Uys, Grain Buyer, Free State
RAND AGRI
FIELD PHOTOS

                                        Sannieshof
            Ventersdorp – hail damage

                   Barberspan           Barberspan
EXCHANGE RATE
R/$
                The South African rand depreciated
                sharply against the US dollar in the week
                of 8 to 12 March.
                The currency came under pressure after
                recoveries in US treasury bonds.

                Technical analysts are keeping a close
                eye on the Fibonacci retracement
                indicator for further movements. If the
                14,4% level of R15,107 is broken, the
                next strong resistance level is R15,50.

                https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/
                2021/03/10/South-African-Rand-Price-
                Forecast-USDZAR-GBPZAR-EURZAR-Setups-
                LiveEdu-TDC.html
COMMODITY PRICE
OIL
                  Oil prices spiked in reaction to a terrorist attack
                  on the Saudi Arabia port on Sunday and OPEC’s
                  unchanged production estimates.

                  Read more:
                  https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-
                  03-11-saudi-arabia-vows-to-protect-oil-facilities-
                  after-drone-attack/

                  8 March 2021
CONTACT US
Rand Agri grain buyers:

Gerrit van der Walt       (082) 308 3014
Gerhard Reyneke           (082) 070 4546
                                            Tel:       +27 (0) 13 243 1166
Christo Uys               (082) 854 6824    E-mail:    info@randagri.co.za
Sakkie Koekemoer                            Web:       www.randagri.co.za
                          (066) 205 2663
                                            Address:   24, Samora Machel Street
Gert Oosthuizen           (083) 654 1179               Middelburg, Mpumalanga
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