Proiect SEE /C/0001/2.2./X: A structured network for integration of climate knowlegde into policy and territorial planning - OrientGate
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Proiect SEE /C/0001/2.2./X: A structured network for
integration of climate knowlegde into policy
and territorial planning - OrientGate
WG4
Pilot study 2: Climate change adaptation measures in Romanian
agriculture field - current status and progress
Dr. Elena Mateescu, Margareta Mateescu – NMA
Ileana Luminita Cornea – EPA Covasna
Outline
1. Dissemination events and technical working
group meeting
2. Status of data collection and availability
3. Issues of interaction among participants in the
Pilots
4. Opportunity for methodology/tool /indicator
comparison
5.Strategies for integration of results
► 2 meetings / Romanian partners
1. Dissemination event in Sfantu Gheorghe (Covasna) held on April 30 by
Environmental Protection Agency of Covasna (EPA-PP9). The participants
represented local and regional authorities working in the environment, water,
agriculture, forest, emergency response, health, education and public
administration sectors, as well as urban planners, students and NGOs.
2. Technical working group meeting in Caracal held on May 24 by National
Meteorological Administration (PP10), together with officials from Caracal
Town Hall. The event was an opportunity for the exchange of experiences and
lessons learnt between the scientific community, local and regional authorities,
decision makers and practitioners (farmers, those using water for irrigation,
and other water consumers). The meeting agenda included a discussion of
project goals and objectives, a presentation of Pilot Study 2, an introduction to
methods for detecting and monitoring crop vegetation status using satellite-
derived information, and an overview of cross-sectoral plans in order to
identify the most suitable options for reducing the impacts of climate change
(especially drought) in the selected pilot areas.
1. Status of data collection and availability - work in progress
1.1. climatic data (1961-2010) : air temperature, rainfall
1.2. agroclimatic data: 1971-2010): soil moisture, heat waves, GDD, etc.
according with the sets of indicators proposed by WP3
1.3 remote sensing data – 2013
1.4. phenological data for 2001-2012 period: winter wheat and maize /
Caracal area (provided by the Agricultural Research Station on contract
services)
1.5. acquisition and installation of the automatic weather station (MAWS)
at Tg. Secuiesc in order to monitor the meteorological conditions in the
pilot area of Covasna (http://anpm.apmcv.ro)
The target area /
- Caracal county: Caracal meteo
station
- Covasna county: Tg Secuiesc
meteo station
http://anpm.apmcv.ro
1.1. Climatic data (1961-2010) : air temperature, rainfall
Decadal evolution of the mean annual air temperature and
annual precipitation amounts recorded in CARACAL area, over
1961- 2010 period
Dynamic evolution of average air temperature by decades
Dynamic evolution of annual rainfall amount / 1961 - 2010
CARACAL Area
CARACAL Area
1000
2001-2010 11.8 900
800
1991-2000 11.3
700
600
Decade
1981-1990 11.1
mm
500
10.8
400
1971-1980
300
1961-1970 10.9 200
100
1961-1990 10.9 0
19 61
19 63
19 65
19 67
19 69
19 71
19 73
19 75
19 77
19 79
19 81
19 83
19 85
19 87
19 89
19 91
19 93
19 95
19 97
19 99
20 01
20 03
20 05
20 07
20 09
10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0
YEAR
°C Rainfall amount Linear trend
2001-2010 / +0.9°°C decreasing tendency
1.1. Climatic data (1961-2010) : air temperature, rainfall
Decadal evolution of the mean annual air temperature and
annual precipitation amounts recorded in TG. SECUIESC area,
over 1961- 2010 period
Dynam ic evolution of average air tem perature by decades
Tg. Secuiesc Area Dynamic evolution of annual rainfall amount / 1961 - 2010
Targu-Secuiesc Area
900
2001-2010 7.7 800
700
1991-2000 7.1
600
Decade
1981-1990 6.8 500
mm
400
1971-1980 6.8
300
1961-1970 6.8 200
100
1961-1990 6.8
0
1 961
1 963
1 965
1 967
1 969
1 971
1 973
1 975
1 977
1 979
1 981
1 983
1 985
1 987
1 989
1 991
1 993
1 995
1 997
1 999
2 001
2 003
2 005
2 007
2 009
6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8
YEAR
°C
Rainfall amount Linear trend
2001-2010 / +0.9°°C increasing tendency, as a
result of heavy rainfall
events
1.2. Agroclimatic data: soil moisture, heat waves, GDD, etc. according
with the sets of indicators proposed by WP3 (multiannual and annual
values/ 1971-present)
ZONING OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE WINTER WHEAT
AND MAIZE CROPS / COVASNA and CARACAL AREAS
1.3. Remote sensing data / PLÉIADES CONSTELLATION It consists of four new satellites: Pléiades 1A & 1B and SPOT 6 & 7. The satellite constellation will be able to ensure the continuity of Earth optical imaging service up to 2023; these satellites will combine a twice-daily revisit capability with an ingenious range of resolutions. Applications Offering an ideal combination of coverage, resolution and speed, Pléiades products are especially useful for applications in hazard management, precision agriculture, For the ORIENTGATE project three Pleiades satellite images were ordered for May, July and August 2013, covereing the test area of Caracal in the South of Romania (Oltenia Plain).
The main Pléiades characteristics: Spectral bands: Pancromatic (0.47-0.83 mm) Blue = 0.43-0.55 mm, Green = 0.50-0.62 mm, Red = 0.59-0.71 mm, Near Infrared = 0.74-0.94 mm (NIR) Product Spatial Resolution Panchromatic: 0.5 m; Multispectral: 2.0 m Swath Width 20km at nadir Revisit Frequency, using Both Pléiades 1A & 1B with +/- 30° viewing angle, 1.3 days and better above 40 latitude, 1.7 days at equator; with +/- 45° viewing angle, daily revisit of any point on the globe
Pleiades image of the 10 of May 2013 over Caracal study area in South of Romania (Color composite - 2 m spatial resolution)
Pleiades image of the 10 of May 2013 over Caracal study area in South of Romania Details of the crops parcels
I.CLIMATIC SCENARIOS – first results:
- Caracal area / winter wheat and maize
(RegCMs/ 2021-2050 and 2071-2100/ SRES A1B scenario)
The first results and description of the project was presented on the WORKSHOP
“CROP YIELD FORECASTING IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE”
SKOPJE, 30-31 MAY 2013
Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food
II. WORK IN PROGRESS / analyses related on the
recommendation and options to improve the
genotype varieties and effective use of water (WUE)
by crops, under CC scenarios
(deadline: 31 December 2013)Growing season duration / winter wheat and maize crops
RegCMs/ 2021-2050 and 2071-2100/ SRES A1B scenario
Winter wheat growing season duration Maize growing season duration
Craiova Craiova
2071-2100 Bechet 2071-2100 Bechet
Bailesti
Bailesti
Calafat
Calafat Caracal
2021-2050
Caracal 2021-2050
Current Current climate
climate
230 240 250 260 270 280 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
DS (days)
Oltenia Plain Oltenia Plain
1961 – 1990 / 261 – 274 days 1961 – 1990 / 133 – 145 days
2021 - 2050 / 251 – 264 days / -9...-13 days 2021 - 2050 / 121 – 133 days / -7...-16 days
2071 - 2100 / 245 – 259 days / -15...-22 days 2071 - 2100 / 167 – 125 days / -14...-25 days
CARACAL CARACAL
1961 – 1990 / 270 days 1961 – 1990 / 142 days
2021 - 2050 / 257 days / -13 days 2021 - 2050 / 127 days / -15 days
2071 - 2100 / 251 days / -19 days 2071 - 2100 / 117 days / -25 days
Shortening vegetation season with 9-22 days for winter wheat, and 7 to 25 days for the maize cropWinter wheat and maize grain yield /
RegCMs/2020-2050 and 2071-2100/A1B scenario
kg/ha
Average maize grain yield
Average winter wheat grain yield kg/ha
6000 6500
5500 6000
5000 5500
4500 5000
4000 4500
3500 Caracal 4000 Caracal
Calafat 3500 Calafat
3000
Bailesti 3000 Bailesti
2500
Craiova 2500 Craiova
2000 2000
1500 Bechet Bechet
1500
1000 1000
Current climate 2021-2050 2071-2100 Current climate 2021-2050 2071-2100
Oltenia Plain Oltenia Plain
1961-1990 / 4380 - 4840 kg/ha 1961-1990 / 5094 - 5420 kg/ha
2021-2050 / 4598 - 5225 kh/ha / 2.5…8.0% 2021-2050 / 4256 - 4898 kg/ha / -6,7…-17,0%
2071-2100 / 5052 - 5469 kg/ha / 10,2…17,5% 2071-2100 / 3125 - 4298 kg/ha / -18.6…-39.1%
CARACAL CARACAL
1961-1990 / 4452 kg/ha 1961-1990 / 5094 kg/ha
2021-2050 / 4731 kg/ha / 6.3% 2021-2050 / 4358 kg/ha / -14.4%
2071-2100 / 5147 kg/ha / 15.6% 2071-2100 / 3235 kg/ha / -36.5%
1. Increasing wheat production with 2.5 ... 17.5%;
2. Reducing maize production with 6,7 ... 39,1%;
3. Winter wheat can benefit from the interaction between increased CO2 concentrations and higher air temperatures, while maize is vulnerable to climate
change, mainly in the case of a scenario predicting hot and droughty conditions.ACTION PLAN FOR ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE / - to be finalized on 30 June 2013 1. Logistical and technical aspects / infrastructure – meteo stations and data, soil moisture sensors, soil temperature sensors, remote sensing data, crop monitoring; 2. Analysis on historical climatic conditions and perspectives under CC scenarios for crops in the pilot areas; 3. Common issues with National Adaptation Strategy (2013- 2020) – agriculture, forestry, water, energy, urban 4. Adaptation measures and implementation by users – action plan, deadlines, responsibilities by local authorities and scientific communities
NEXT STEPS / discussions 3. Issues of interaction among participants in the Pilots - cross-sectoral analyses: forestry – agriculture - water under TC1 (pilot study 1) and TC2 (pilot study 3) activities pilots 4. Opportunity for methodology/tool /indicator comparison - historical tendency and perspectives in the context of CC for agriculture and forestry, and water scarcity and drought (SEE countries) - common clmatic indicators /SPI - analysis related on the recommendations and options for adaptation measures 5. Strategies for integration of results - Lesson learnt from actual measures and new proposal under CC scenarios
Thank you! elena.mateescu@meteoromania.ro margareta.mateescu@meteoromania.ro luminita@apmcv.anpm.ro
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