Electric Vehicles - a disruptive force underpinning our commodities - forum targeting 30% - Glencore
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Metals and
minerals
Electric Vehicles – a disruptive
force underpinning our
commodities
The Electric Vehicle Initiative
is a multi-government policy
30%
forum targeting
market share for electric
vehicle sales by 2030
12 Glencore Annual Report 2017
Strategic Report Governance Financial Additional
Statements Information
The energy and mobility
transformation currently
underway is unlocking
material new sources
of demand for enabling
commodities such as
copper, nickel and cobalt
The emergence of Technological progress
Rapid advances in technology are
electric vehicles (EVs) emerging across the EV supply chain,
is set to transform the from power generation and storage
mobility space due to a to charging and vehicles.
combination of factors: With technological progress
comes cost efficiencies, enhanced
Environmental considerations performance and ultimately
Momentum to decarbonise the products that can compete with
economy is gathering pace as nations traditional internal combustion
increasingly coordinate efforts on this engine (ICE) alternatives.
transition. Bloomberg New Energy
Finance forecasts investment in zero Industry commentators now expect
carbon energy at c.$8.7 trillion by the total cost of ownership (TCO) for
2040, with an estimated 530 million EVs to reach parity with ICE vehicles
electric vehicles on the road. in the early part of the next decade1.
1 CRU “Mobility and Energy Futures –
Perspectives towards 2035”, prepared
Political mandate for Glencore by CRU Consulting.
A growing consensus, highlighted
by the Paris Accord and the Electric Consumer experience
Vehicle Initiative (EVI), is seeking to While the EV story is clearly in
coordinate national and regional its early days, existing EV models
policies towards a low carbon future. and those under development are
Specifically on transportation, the already demonstrating performance
EVI is a multi-government policy comparable to, or exceeding,
forum comprising 16 major global equivalent ICEs.
economies. The initiative seeks to Average EV range, acceleration and
facilitate the global deployment speed are increasing while targeted
of 20 million EVs by 2020. A further charging times and TCO are rapidly
campaign announced in 2017, decreasing; all enhancing the
led by China, targets at least 30% consumer experience.
new electric vehicle sales by 2030,
collectively across all EVI countries.
Glencore Annual Report 2017
13Electric Vehicles – a disruptive force
underpinning our commodities
continued
Driving demand
Rapid technology advances in battery chemistry, along with strong
government support, is accelerating the economic breakeven point
of electric vehicles and building demand for our key commodities
Total cost of ownership – closing the
Predicted growth in EV sales economic gap with conventional vehicles
30%
45,000
42,000
EV by 2030 39,000
36,000
2020 2025 2030 33,000
● ICE 94% ● ICE 85% ● ICE 64%
● Hybrid EV 4% ● Hybrid EV 5% ● Hybrid EV 6% 30,000
● Battery EV 2% ● Battery EV 10% ● Battery EV 30%
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● Fuel cell EV 1%
ICE – petrol BEV without subsidy BEV with subsidy
Source: CRU ‘Green Scenario’ Source: CRU
Estimated average metal use per vehicle:
Copper Nickel Cobalt
>30% CAGR in battery electric 84kg 30kg 8kg
vehicle sales to 2030 leads to an
increase in demand for metals Cu Ni Co
Based on estimated 53kWh
global average battery pack size.
Source: CRU ‘Green Scenario’.
The impact of this growth in demand for metals has implications across the value chain
Generation and grid Grid storage Charging infrastructure Non-ICE vehicles
infrastructure (kt) (kt) (kt) (kt)
2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Cu 40 170 536 Cu 24 86 180 Cu 23 115 392 Cu 304 1,068 2,972
Ni 20 71 150 Ni 66 299 985
Co 7 26 55 Co 17 80 259
Leading to additional metal demand by 2030
Copper Nickel Cobalt
4.1Mtpa c.1.1Mtpa 314ktpa
18% of 2017 global supply 55% of 2017 global supply 332% of 2017 global supply
14 Glencore Annual Report 2017Strategic Report Governance Financial Additional
Statements Information
Potential supply
Glencore is well-positioned to supply
into the energy and mobility evolution
On the cusp of Our commodities are crucial
mainstream EV roll-out to the electric vehicle (EV) story
The rate at which automotive and The energy and mobility We are uniquely positioned with
battery companies have scaled up transformation currently underway our commodity mix, having strong
electric vehicle investment plans is forecast to unlock material new production growth across these
speaks to our opportunity as a sources of demand for enabling three core EV metals over the
supplier of key metals. underlying commodities including next three years.
copper, nickel and cobalt.
Global automaker investment now
totals over $90 billion, with at least
$19 billion attributed to the U.S.,
$21 billion to China and $52 billion
to Germany. Glencore own source copper Glencore own source nickel
Volkswagen alone plans to
spend $40 billion by 2030 to
build electrified versions of over
25% growth 30% growth
300 models. Chinese automakers in production to 2020 in production to 2020
are ramping up focus on the
EV story, while a number 1.6Mt 142kt
have announced investment 1.3Mt 109kt
partnerships with the likes
of Ford, VW and General Motors.
Global planned and existing
battery cell production capacity
amounts to over 300GWh, which
compares to Tesla’s Gigafactory 2017 2020 2017 2020
target capacity of 35GWh. China
accounts for approximately
two-thirds of the total.
Glencore own source cobalt
How much metal is required?
To illustrate the demand
potential for a number of our key 133% growth
commodities, we commissioned in production to 2020
CRU to model the metal
requirements across the supply 63kt
chain to achieve the EVI target
of 30% EV market share by 2030.
Unsurprisingly the forecast metal 27kt
requirements are significant,
as early as 2020.
An additional c.4.1Mt of copper
2017 2020
(18% of 2017 supply), c.1.1Mt of
nickel (55% of 2017 supply) and
314kt of cobalt (332% of 2017
supply) will be required to
enable 30M EV sales by 2030.
.
Glencore Annual Report 2017
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