DRI's Cloud Seeding Program: Tahoe-Truck Project Results for Water Year 2013 - Jeff Tilley, Arlen Huggins, and Robert David - WRWC Planning Commission
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DRI’s Cloud Seeding Program:
Tahoe-Truck Project Results for
Water Year 2013
Jeff Tilley, Arlen Huggins,
and Robert David
WRWC Planning Commission
November 6, 2013
WY2013 Results:
Tahoe-Truckee Basin
CA-NV Border
Sierra Nevada
Mountain Range
CA/NV border:
Dashed blue lines
show pathways
from ground
generator sites
(in blue) to
SNOTEL sites (in
red)
Early Season Tahoe Seeding Events Most fit conventional seeding criteria for basin Very few events mid Jan-mid March Longer Duration than Late Season (Mar/Apr) Events w/ embedded convection [Plot available in Extra Slides]
Late Season Tahoe Seeding Events Some events targeted that were more convective in nature with warmer 700 hPa (~ 10000 ft) temps..most late March-early April Most convective events targeted shorter in duration (3-5 hr) than conventional events Few events February through mid-March
Table. Top: Average values of weather variables during WY2013
Tahoe-Truckee seeding events. Bottom: Distribution of wind
directions.
Variable Average CSSL SQBC Squaw Mt Rose 700 mb
Temperature -2.33 -3.14 -7.04
Precipitation 0.38 0.18 0.41 0.53
Wind Speed 18.37 28.36
Wind Direction 281.53 248.47
Squaw WD by Quadrant 700mb WD by Quadrant
S to W 22.2% 8 S to W 66.7% 24
W to N 72.2% 26 W to N 27.8% 10
N to E 2.8% 1 N to E 0.0% 0
E to S 2.8% 1 E to S 5.6% 2
Generator Hours by Month
500.00
Tahoe-Truckee
450.00
400.00
WY2013 Generator
350.00
300.00
Gen Hours
Statistics
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 Feb Mar Apr May
2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Seeding Events by Month
10
9
8 Events
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar Apr 2013 May
2013 2013
SWE relationship to suspension criteria Only a few days in Dec. 2012 apply, and more for certain wind directions than others
Estimated Water Augmentation for Tahoe-
Truckee Basin
0.25 mm = 0.00328 ft
1 sq mile = 640 acres.
So, for the 2012-13 winter season the estimated snow
water increase from seeding is:
Ws = 1232 h x 0.25 mm/h x 0.00328 ft/mm x 35 sq
mi x 640 acres/sq mi x 0.92
Ws ≈ 20,819 acre-feet.
Summary of past 16 yr. Tahoe-Truckee Seeding WY2013 similar to WY2012 and above longer-term avg. of # seeding hours/water augmentation Seeding late season storms w/ convective elements embedded made difference. Water augmentation estimates based on seeding efficiency == f( forecast accuracy, generator efficiency, obs. SWE)
WY2014 New Initiatives Joint DRI-Drone America Venture Cloud Seeding with the Phoebus-2
Overview
l Develop cost-effective miniaturized cloud seeding
generator and flare technologies for testing, application in
NV and elsewhere, leading to eventual commercialization
l Development phase
l DRI lead, Drone America major partner, State of Nevada, Province of
Alberta (via NV-AB memorandum of understanding)
l Initial Tests
l Walker Basin or NV Test Range if FAA approved
l Field Proof-of-Concept Tests
l Proposal: Chile/South America, late winter 2014 if possible
l Exhibitions, Marketing, Commercialization
l Conferences and Publications
l NOTE: We are actively seeking funding partners for the full
effort!Initial Funding
l DRI gets lease of the Phoebus for $0.01
l A $360K+ value! J
l DRI must cover operational costs
l Insurance
l Flight crew
l Fuel
l Misc. expenses
l DRI and State of Nevada match bring initial funding to
$100K
l We are actively seeking partners in this effort!Re-engaging the Tahoe Ski Industry:
First Stop: KirkwoodPreviously, under the NV State Cloud Seeding
Program
• Ground AgI Generator at
Kirkwood during the final
years of the Nevada State
Cloud Seeding Program
• Target primarily Carson
Basin/Mokelumne
Wilderness Area
• Ground based efforts
coordinated with aircraft-
based seeding over the
Sierra Crest
• Relatively little direct
impact to resort from
generator; some potential
benefit from aircraft
seeding
• Tahoe/Truckee could
realize some benefit from
S/SSW flowsDRI Present Involvement with CO Ski Areas
• Durango • Winter Park
• Weather station at Durango • Operation of two generators and
Mountain Lodge weather station
• Operate Mancos AgI seeding • All generator/ wx station
generator; maintenance
• Assist in maintenance of • Analysis of seeding
generators efficiency/effectiveness
• Analysis of seeding • Proposed this year: begin snow
efficiency/effectiveness sampling and chemistry analysis.Towards the Future at Kirkwood
Possible AgI generator Possible Weather Station Possible LPG generator
Former DMR Milk Creek
AgI weather LPG
Generator, station, CO Generator
Kirkwood COCost Estimates for Possible Options
Option Costs* Benefits
Do nothing $0 No direct benefits; perhaps ancillary seeding benefit from
existing Tahoe/Truckee/Walker generators in limited
array of wind directions
Weather Station $8350 total incl. Information would likely be available publicly, incl. to
parts, CSI, labor, interested ski customers; improved ski ops (snow making)
maintenance locally;
Improve seeding operations and evaluation elsewhere
Microwave radiometer $40000 season Improved ski ops (snowmaking) locally
lease Improved seeding operations and evaluation
LPG Generator $20000 total incl. Seeding impact to Carson Basin, possible to
parts, CSI, labor, Tahoe/Truckee and Walker Basins. Potential seeding
maint, operations impact locally to resort under different wind scenarios.
(criteria need to be developed).
LPG+Wx Station $26000 inc. all Combination of previous 2 rows on chart
above
AgI generator $60K for new Consistency with previous efforts; primary benefits to
generator if downstream/wilderness area users
needed; if not
needed, $55K ops+
maintenance
* Excludes monthly phone costs, shipping, installation, consumables~ O (5-25K/year)Tahoe-Truckee Basin Dashed blue lines show pathways from ground generator sites (in blue) to SNOTEL sites (in red)
Thanks for Your Attention! Questions?
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