COVID-19 economic data tracker - Truist
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
COVID-19 economic data tracker
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 11 – March 19, 2021
Director, U.S. Macro Strategist
Trend watch and what’s new this week Bottom line
U.S. vaccination efforts are kicking into high gear. Daily doses We have seen some of the February economic data ebb, though we
administered are running at about 2.5 million, while the pace of full warned this was coming due to bad weather, as well as comparisons
vaccinations is now above one million per day (slide 5). That’s up to stronger January figures as a result of the December COVID relief
nearly 20% in the past two weeks, and boosted by the rollout of the checks. For instance, February housing starts dropped 10%, but
single-dose J&J vaccine. starts in the Midwest crashed 30%, almost entirely due to weather,
while the West jumped 23%. Also, February retail sales fell 3%
This week, we highlight the CDC’s latest vaccination rollout timeline
following an outsized 7.6% jump in January. Still, ignoring January,
estimates (slide 6). At the current pace, the CDC now expects the
the February total would have been a new all-time high.
percentage of U.S. adults at least partially vaccinated will top 90% by
early August, roughly four months sooner than prior CDC estimates. Data from late February and early March have begun to reflect
further reopening by states and major metros. Looking ahead, the
The solid improvement in travel-related gauges has accelerated in
latest COVID relief checks, which started going out last week, will
the past week. We revisit air passenger throughput, which reached
begin impacting data in the next three weeks. Additionally, the
8.8 million for the week (slide 7). However, it’s roughly 55% below
aforementioned acceleration in the rollout timeline for vaccination
the weekly average of 16.1 million passengers during 2019. Hotel
should also help boost activity in the second and third quarters.
occupancy has also crossed above 50%.
Still, we anticipate some of the unevenness that has marked this
We also direct your attention to cinemas (slide 8), which have begun
recovery to persist for a while longer. For instance, domestic
to reopen. Yet, cinemas are also hampered by the lack of movies as
business travel as well as international travel have not come back
most studios have held back their blockbusters, which tend to drive
online yet. Similarly, companies have just started to announce their
ticket sales.
‘return to the office’ strategies, but many have not.
Lastly, we highlight how strong retail shopping is pushing imports
higher, which expected to continue through at least the first half of
2021 (slide 9).
Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueU.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
New cases trends appear to be treading water, but vaccination efforts are kicking into high gear.
U.S. state
Daily doses administered are running at 2.5M, while full vaccinations at 1M/day. Travel-related
reopenings metrics, such as air passenger counts and hotel occupancy, continue to improve.
TSA air passenger Weekly passenger counts rose 15.9% WoW to 8.8 million, the highest since mid-March 2020 and the seventh
straight weekly gain. Still, passenger counts are -55% from the 2019 weekly average.
throughput
OpenTable restaurant The weekly average jumped to -32% YoY, the highest since early September, as more states and large metros
reopen. Just two states (IL, NY) plus D.C. are down more than -50% compared to nine last week.
bookings
Parks (+5%) pushed into positive territory for the first time since November. 7-day average relative to 2020:
Google mobility Transit -30%, Grocery/Pharmacy -6%, Residential +7%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -13%, Workplaces -25%,
Occupancy rose to 52.1%. Among the top 25 markets, Tampa was tops at 72.7% occupancy, while Boston was
Hotel occupancy the bottom at 33.6%. Average daily rate jump to $102.52 but remains down 14.5% YoY.
Apartment rent Payments through March 6 were 80.4%, matching the highest rate since June, but down from 84.5% in March
2020. Full month payments for the Nov-Jan months were -2.1% YoY, improved from -3.1% in April 2020.
payments
Rail carloads rose 1.1% WoW. Freight data show carriers have cleared nearly most of the backlogs due to the
Freight mid-February weather disruptions. Inbound cargo has remained strong. Freight experts are now calling the
continuous heavy volume ‘perpetual peak’.
Rose to 94.8, the highest level since December 2019 and 8th straight weekly gain. That is up 10.5% YoY, the
Staffing index fastest pace since the holiday season of 2014. The low for this cycle was 59.6 back in late April.
Sources: Truist IAG, NY Times, State Governor Websites, The Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Transportation Security Administration, Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National
Positive Negative Neutral / Mixed Multifamily Housing Council Rent Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-
over-year change are abbreviated as WoW and YoY, respectively.Further improvement in all of the key U.S. virus trends
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
300,000
2,500,000
250,000
2,000,000
200,000
150,000 54,153 1,500,000
100,000 1,000,000
50,000 500,000 1,463,658
0 0
150,000 Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
4,000 600,000
Total deaths (r-axis)
3,000 Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis)
100,000 39,803 400,000
2,000
50,000 200,000
1,000 1,264
0 - 0
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through March 17, 2020. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin
Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Reopening trends – unevenness continues
NY Fed weekly economic index 75 U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
6% 50
25
0% 0
-1.0% -25
-6% -50 Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-75 Workplaces Parks
-12%
-100 Residential Retail & Recreation
20%
OpenTable bookings year-over-year % TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
change (7-day average) 2,500,000 (7-day average)
0%
-32% 2,000,000
-20%
1,500,000 1,260,708
-40%
-60% 1,000,000
-80% 500,000
-100% 0
Jul-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
May-20
Mar-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through March 13, 2021. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google COVID-19
Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through March 7. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through March 11. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) 7-day average
through March 18.Vaccinations quickly ramping higher globally
Global vaccinations have topped 400 million. The U.S. ranks first in the total number of vaccine doses administered, ahead of China and the European
Union. India is quickly ramping higher. By continent – Asia 152 million, North America 122 million, South America 25.2 million, and Africa 7.6 million. The
U.S. leads in people fully vaccinated with 40 million, more than double the European Union in second place. In terms of percentage of population fully
vaccinated, Israel leads with 51.8%, while Chile (14.1%) and Bahrain (13.4%) are second and third, respectively, while the U.S. is fourth (12.3%).
Cumulative COVID-19 vaccinations Number of Americans fully vaccinated
350
(in millions) (in millions)
World (400.3M) 44
40.0
300 40
United States (113.0M)
36
250 China (52.5M)
32
European Union (53.2M)
200 28
United Kingdom (27.0M)
24
150 India (37.1M)
20
100 16
12
50
8
1.3
0 4
1/3
1/6
1/9
2/2
2/5
2/8
3/1
3/4
3/7
1/12
1/15
1/18
1/21
1/24
1/27
1/30
2/11
2/14
2/17
2/20
2/23
2/26
3/10
12/13
12/16
12/19
12/22
12/25
12/28
12/31
0
1/14 1/20 1/26 2/1 2/7 2/13 2/19 2/25 3/3 3/9 3/15
Sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data through March 10, 2021. China figures reported weekly. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S.
military installations and territories. Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union.Third vaccine hastens vaccination pace again
U.S. vaccination efforts are kicking into high gear.
Estimated vaccination timeline
The pace of full vaccinations is now above one million
per day. That’s up nearly 20% in the past two weeks.
% of U.S. population partially vaccinated
It’s boosted by the rollout of the single-dose J&J
vaccine, which has been administered to 4.15 million
adults in less than three weeks of use. 100%
2-Aug Previous CDC
That pulls forward how quickly U.S. adults will be 90%
Estimate
vaccinated. At the current pace, the percentage of
U.S. adults at least partially vaccinated will reach Updated CDC 2-Dec
23-Jun
50% in mid-May rather than early July. It should top 75% Estimate 90%
70%
90% by early August, which would be roughly four
months sooner than prior CDC estimates. 13-May 19-Sep
50% 70%
50%
8-Jul
18-Mar 50%
23%
25%
18-Feb
12%
0%
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21
Sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC); updated estimate as of March 18, 2021, previous estimate as of
February 18, 2021.
.Airline travelers up for seventh straight week
Weekly airline passenger counts rose to 8.8 million,
TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
the highest since mid-March 2020. That’s a 15.9%
week-over-week increase, the largest weekly gain
week-over-week change
since the week of Christmas.
It was also the seventh straight weekly increase – the
41%
longest streak since a 12-week streak that began
after the initial lockdown phase was lifted.
While 8.8 million for the week is impressive, it’s
roughly 55% below the weekly average of 16.1 million
passengers during 2019. 19%
15% 16%
11% 13% 11%
8%
3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4%
0%
0%
-4%
-7% -6% -8% -9%
-22% -25%
5-Nov
3-Dec
11-Feb
18-Feb
25-Feb
15-Oct
22-Oct
29-Oct
4-Mar
12-Nov
19-Nov
26-Nov
10-Dec
17-Dec
24-Dec
31-Dec
7-Jan
11-Mar
18-Mar
14-Jan
21-Jan
28-Jan
4-Feb
Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration.Cinemas’ come back stuck in ‘chicken & egg’ conundrum for a while
Box office sales, which are typically been very seasonal, have been erratic in the past four months. Part of the sluggishness in sales is fewer moviegoers
due to the pandemic. Being a mostly indoor activity means cinemas are among the last activities to reopen. But some of the issue is also the lack of
movies as most studios have held back their blockbusters, which tend to drive ticket sales. Accordingly, 2020 had just 227,600 tickets sold compared to
ticket sales of 1.3 million per year on average over the prior five years.
Weekly box office gross sales (in millions) Annual box office ticket sales
$600 (number of tickets sold in millions)
1.6
$500 1.4
1.2
$400
1.0
$300
0.8
$200 0.6
0.4
$100 227,600
0.2
$0 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, BoxOffice Media; data through March 11, 2021.Strong retail shopping pushing imports higher, expected to continue
Retail sales surged in 2020 thanks to a largely V-
U.S. retail imports (in millions of containers)
shaped recovery that helped most Americans’
incomes stay solid and with people stuck at home.
Retail sales exceeded pre-pandemic levels by July Full year
2020 and continued climbing, and are now at an all- 21.8 21.6 22.0
Forecast for first 7 months of 2021
time high. That translated into a deluge of containers 20.5
imported in 2020, which topped 22 million for retail 19.1
18.5
goods alone, also a new all-time high. 17.5
16.8 17.1 16.4
The pace of imports, based on the number of 15.8 15.8 15.4 15.6 16.0
containers, is expected to continue climbing through
14.4
the first half of 2021. Container counts for retail goods 13.70
13.2
should reach 13.7 million through July 2021,
according to estimates for the National Retail
Federation by international trade consultants Hackett
Associates.
Overall container volumes—filled with everything
from machinery and equipment to foodstuff and auto
parts—are equally strong.
Data Source: Truist IAG, National Retail Federation, Hackett Associates. Containers defined as twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).
Ports are for Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle/Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port
Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston..Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc. (d/b/a SunTrust Investment Services, Inc.), and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc. (d/b/a SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc.), GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. © 2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist, the Truist logo and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation CN2021-1271 EXP 12-2021
You can also read
