COVID-19 economic data tracker - Truist
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COVID-19 economic data tracker
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 51 – December 20, 2021
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
The Truist COVID-19 Economic Tracker will not published during the fanned some of the inflationary pressure in recent months.
last week of December. It will return to a weekly schedule in first week
of January 2022. Bottom line
Trend watch and what’s new this week Despite rising infections, overall activity levels remain consistent with
recent trends and seasonal norms. Accordingly, overall economic
U.S. virus trends have sharply increased nationally (slide 3) and
activity has likely peak – as it normally does in mid-December – and
regionally (slide 6). In a matter of weeks, the omicron variant became
should taper off quickly near year-end.
the dominant U.S. strain (slide 8), accounting for nearly three quarters
of new cases. While omicron appears to be more transmissible than We maintain our base case that the U.S. won’t experience lockdowns,
prior strains, the symptoms are reportedly milder. which also didn’t occur during last summer’s delta variant surge. That is
based on the fact that nearly three quarters of Americans adults are
Still, surging new infections have prompted European governments to
fully vaccinated (over 200 million), and over one-third of adults have
re-impose restrictions. The Netherlands has reinstated a strict
already received a booster. Additionally, there are better therapeutics
nationwide lockdown, while Ireland announced an 8 pm curfew for bars
compared to 2020, including two recently approved COVID-19
and restaurants, and set limits on large gatherings. France and
treatment pills. Both pills are effective against the omicron variant
Germany announced travel restrictions for passengers from the United
based on recent lab data.
Kingdom. France has also clamped down on holiday events and large
gatherings. Canada has paused indoor group events and sports. Israel That said, we wouldn’t rule out localized restrictions by certain cities. As
is once again banning traveling to and from the U.S. or Canada. we have repeatedly mentioned here, COVID-19 isn’t going away
anytime soon, but the world is definitely managing it better.
Lastly, West coast port congestion has continued to improve in past
month (slide 9). This is the combination of fewer inbound container
ships, which appears to have peaked in September, and better
Last but certainly not least – we wish you and yours happy holidays.
throughput at the ports. Ultimately, clearing the logjam of container
We look forward to prosperous 2022!
ships at these ports should help reduce the supply shortages that have
Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueU.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
Air travel is rising ahead of the Christmas holiday, which is typical, as has hotel occupancy. Similarly,
U.S. state reopenings overall economic activity remains steady through mid December, but tends to weaken through
yearend. Overall activity levels are consistent with recent trends.
TSA air passenger Weekly passengers up 8.0% WoW, snapping a 2-week down streak, to 13.6 million. Passenger counts are now
throughput -15.2% below the 2019 weekly average of 16.1M and -16.6% compared to the same week in December 2019.
OpenTable restaurant Drifted down to -12.8% from -11% a few weeks ago. Top positive states were led by Nevada (+47%); bottom
bookings was New York (-38%). Top city was Las Vegas (+48%); bottom were Minneapolis (-58%) and NYC (-47%).
Activities skewed as the year winds down. 7-day averages relative to 2020: Parks -8%, Transit -21%,
Google mobility Grocery/Pharmacy +3%, Residential +4%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -4%, Workplaces -17%.
Occupancy rebounded to 57.4%, though remains in a seasonally week period. The average daily rate rose to
Hotel occupancy $128.35, up 2.3% from the same week in Dec. 2019, while revenue per available room was $73.73, down 2.7%.
Apartment rent Payments through December 6 rose slipped to 77.1% from 78.2% in November. Full month rents for November
payments ’21 edged up to 93.1% from 93.0% in October, but were down from 95.2% in November ’19.
Rail carloads jumped 22% WoW two weeks ago, but slipped 2.7% last week. Shipping container counts for the
Freight top three U.S. ports fell 6.6% in November and volumes were up 19.6% YTD compared to 2019.
Rebounded to 107.1 after falling to 102.8 during Thanksgiving week, which is typical. We expect it to jostle
Staffing index around during the holiday season as it has historically. The low for this cycle was 59.6 set in April 2020.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent
Positive Negative Neutral / Mixed Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated
as WoW and YoY, respectively.U.S. cases, hospitalizations, and death rate trending higher nationally
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
300,000
132,147 3,000,000
250,000 1,590,712
2,500,000
200,000 2,000,000
150,000 1,500,000
100,000 1,000,000
50,000 500,000
0 0
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jun-21
May-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
150,000 Total deaths (r-axis)
4,000 Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis) 1,000,000
100,000 68,081
3,000 800,000
1,299 600,000
2,000
50,000 400,000
1,000 200,000
0 - 0
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through December 19, 2021. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S.
Virgin Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Nearly three quarters of Americans adults are fully vaccinated (over 200
million), and over one-third of adults have already received a booster
U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population) Number of Americans fully vaccinated
Fully vaccinated* At least one dose Booster dose 250 (in millions)
202.4
95.0% 200
83.1% 85.1% 87.5%
72.9% 70.7% 72.5%
61.5% 54.5% 150
29.8% 32.4% 100
50
% of total % of Americans % of adults % of Americans 0
population age 12 and over over 65 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
U.S. pace of fully vaccinated U.S. COVID-19 percentage of cases
2.0 (7-DMA, in millions) and deaths by age
28.1%
Cases Deaths 26.1%
1.5 21.4% 22.0%
19.1%
16.6% 17.3%
13.100% 14.4%
1.0
0.14 2.7% 3.9%
7.1%
0.5 1.7% 3.6% 1.9%
0.0% 0.1% 0.7%
0.0 0-4 5-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left, bottom right: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through December 20, 2021. Top right, bottom left: Our World in Data,
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through December 19, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. *Fully vaccinated is defined as receiving
two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or receiving a single-dose vaccine regimen.Activity-based trends have shifted recently with the holiday season
NY Fed weekly economic index 75 U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
16% 7.7% 50
12%
8% 25
4% 0
0%
-4% -25
-8% -50
-12% Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-75
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-21
Jul-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Workplaces Parks
-100 Residential Retail & Recreation
Mar-20 Oct-20 May-21 Dec-21
OpenTable bookings % change compared TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
20% to 2019 (7-day average) (7-day average, in millions)
0% 2019 2020 2021 2M 7-day average
3
-20%
-40% 2
-60% -12.8% 1.95
-80% 1
-100%
0
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-21
Jun-21
May-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361
Day of the year
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through December 11, 2021. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through December 17. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through December 19. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration
(TSA) 7-day average through December 19.U.S. COVID-19 cases surging again in New York and the Midwest
The onset of the omicron variant has quickly pushed new infections higher. New cases continue to climb in the Midwest, particularly in Michigan, Ohio,
and Illinois. There’s also been a marked increased in the Northeast, which is mostly due to New York.
COVID-19 new cases by region COVID-19 new cases – select states
(7-day moving average) (7-day moving average)
West Midwest Northeast South 18,000
Michigan
120,000 16,000
Ohio
14,000 Pennsylvania
100,000
12,000 Illinois
80,000 New York
10,000
60,000 8,000
6,000
40,000
4,000
20,000
2,000
- -
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
Data source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, data through December 19, 2021.Elementary school cases continue climbing, pushing up U.S. school-aged
new cases, but older student cases have stabilized
The total number of new COVID-19 cases of school-
New COVID-19 cases of school-aged children
aged children rose to 13.1% of all new U.S. cases.
as a percentage of total new U.S. cases
However, new cases in the 5-11 age group continued
to climb, up to 6.0% in the past week. Meanwhile, the Total cases (r-axis) Ages 5-11 (l-axis)
12-15 age cohort has remained at 4.4% since mid-
Ages 12-15 (l-axis) Ages 16-17 (l-axis)
November, while the 16-17 age group held steady at
2.7% for the second straight week. 7% 13.5%
There have been 692 deaths in school-aged children 13.0%
during the entire pandemic, or 0.1% of all U.S. 5.8% 6.0%
COVID deaths. 6% 5.7%
5.5% 5.6% 12.5%
5.3%
5.1% 12.0%
4.9%
5% 4.7%
4.4% 11.5%
4.2% 4.3%
11.0%
4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%4.4%
4.1% 4.2%
10.5%
3.8% 3.8% 3.9%
3% 10.0%
9.5%
2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
2% 9.0%
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data from July 29, 2021 through December 20, 2021.Omicron variant became dominant U.S. strain in a matter of weeks
The omicron variant was first detected in the U.S in late November. Within four weeks, it became the dominant strain, with just three states have yet to
report a case of omicron (Oklahoma, South Dakota and Montana).
New U.S. COVID-19 cases by strain
0.1%
Delta strain Omicron strain All other strains Omicron first
detected
0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
100%
12.6%
90%
80%
70%
73.2%
60%
50% 99.1% 99.2% 99.2% 99.1% 99.2% 99.0% 99.2% 98.7% 98.6% 98.3% 99.7% 99.3%
87.0%
40%
30%
20%
26.6%
10%
0%
Sep. 18 Sep. 25 Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 Oct. 23 Oct. 30 Nov. 6 Nov. 13 Nov. 20 Nov. 27 Dec. 4 Dec. 11 Dec. 18
Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Weekly data from September 18, 2021 through December 18, 2021.West coast port congestion continues to improve
The two largest U.S. ports—Los Angeles and Long
Ships in port of LA/Long Beach
Beach—share San Pedro Bay. Prior to late 2020,
most ships never anchored in San Pedro Bay aside 180 Total ships Container ships anchored* 167
from rare occasions due to storms, maintenance, or
an accident, and it would be a handful of ships if it did 160
occur.
In 2021, an average of 38 container ships carrying 140
cargo have been anchored* per day and a high of
109 in early November. As of December 17th, the
number of container ships anchored* dropped to 52, 120
the fewest since early September, while the total
109
number of ships in-port dipped to 104, the fewest 100
since mid July. 104
80
60
40 52
20
0
Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Dec-21
Data sources: Truist IAG, Marine Exchange of Southern California; data from November 12, 2020 through December 17, 2021.
* Container ships anchored includes anchored, loitering or in designated drift areas.Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and Truist Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc., and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which Delaware are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc., GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. © 2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist, the Truist logo and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation CN2021-3831 EXP12-2022
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