COVID-19 consumer sentiment research - India survey snapshot: April 30-May 03 results
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COVID-19 consumer sentiment research India survey snapshot: April 30-May 03 results MAY 2020
India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
This COVID-19 consumer sentiment research is based on a global survey
which currently covers both developed and emerging markets. It will
be fielded in waves to provide a longitudinal view of consumer
sentiments about the coronavirus pandemic, and about consumer
consumption outlook
Context for This document is focused on Wave 3 in India, which was fielded from
this April 30th-May 03rd, 2020; covering ~1,300 SEC A and B respondents in
Metros, Tier 1 & Tier 2 cities. The following is not an exhaustive
document analysis of that study, but rather a first-read of its results
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
This study assesses the overall shift in spending across a large set of
categories (~50). It also tracks overall consumer sentiment towards the
COVID-19 virus
1India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Wave 3 survey conducted in the midst of Lockdown
extension announcement, albeit with many relaxations
Survey: Survey: Survey:
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
52,952
# of COVID cases in India
2.4X
35,365
20,471
14,792
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
10,815
5,274
5 110 519 1,024
2-Mar
3-Mar
4-Mar
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
1-May
2-May
3-May
4-May
5-May
6-May
7-May
10-Mar
11-Mar
12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar
19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
22-Mar
23-Mar
24-Mar
25-Mar
26-Mar
27-Mar
28-Mar
29-Mar
30-Mar
31-Mar
10-Apr
11-Apr
12-Apr
13-Apr
14-Apr
15-Apr
16-Apr
17-Apr
18-Apr
19-Apr
20-Apr
21-Apr
22-Apr
23-Apr
24-Apr
25-Apr
26-Apr
27-Apr
28-Apr
29-Apr
30-Apr
1-Apr
2-Apr
3-Apr
4-Apr
5-Apr
6-Apr
7-Apr
8-Apr
9-Apr
22/3: Janata 24/3: Nationwide 14/4: Lockdown 01/5: Lockdown
curfew/India lockdown for 21 extended till 3rd May extended till 17th
lockdown for a day days May, with relaxations
2
Note: Online survey conducted among SEC AB respondents in Metro- Tier 2 towns, Wave 1: Mar 23-26 (N=2,106), Wave 2: Apr 17-20 (N=2,324), Wave 3: Apr 30-May 03 (N=1,327)
Source: Ministry of Health & Family welfare (Data updated as on 07 May)India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Consumer sentiment in India similar to global markets; China shows
early signs of recovery
% consumers India China France Italy UK USA
The world is in serious danger due
to the coronavirus 79% 78% 81% 77% 79% 73%
The worst of the coronavirus is not
43% 26% 59% 50% 65% 57%
over
There will be an economic recession
82% 70% 89% 89% 89% 80%
due to the coronavirus
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
I'm trying to avoid public spaces as
much as possible due to the 85% 83% 84% 88% 86% 85%
coronavirus
I've changed my daily lifestyle as a
81% 68% 70% 83% 85% 82%
results of the coronavirus
Above 70% 60% to 70% Below 60%
Note: Question text: “How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?” Circle size reflects the percentage of respondents who agree with the given
statement. Sources: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 24–27 2020 (N = 2,783 US; 2,779 China; 2,954 France; 3,024 Italy; 3,126 UK), and BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment
3
Survey, April 30–03 May 2020 (N = 1,327 India)India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Despite relaxations in Lockdown, concerns across health,
economic situation and daily lifestyle continue
Health Economic situation Daily lifestyle
83% 84% 82% 87% 87% 84%
82%
% consumers agreeing
83% 75% 75% 86%
81% 79%
79% 68% 41%
47% Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
43%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
43% 44%
40%
10
The world is in The worst People of all There will be an Economic situation I’m maintaining I’m working
serious danger impacts lie ahead ages are dying economic recession will not improve social distance from home
for several years from others
Note: Question text: "How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?" Combined Strongly agree and Somewhat agree 1. Asked only in Wave 3
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26 2020, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively) 4India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Over 50% continue to have a negative outlook on future income
Younger consumers, lower SECs & small businesses more pessimistic
Expected change
Age SEC Occupation
in income
Salaried
18-25 yrs
SEC A 17% 57%
Wave 3 14% 61%
20% 54% 22% 52% Self-employed
26-35 yrs
29% 49%
23% 52%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Wave 2 SEC B
36-45+ yrs Small business
19% 54% 14% 60% SEC B
21% 51% 10% 65%
Wave 3
% expecting higher income in the next 6 months % expecting lower income in the next 6 months
Question text: “How do you expect your overall available household income to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?". Note: Self-employed includes professions
like doctors, CAs, yoga instructors, etc. Small business includes businesses withIndia—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
43% have unfavorable sentiment on future spends
Younger consumers, lower SECs and small businesses less resilient
Expected change
Age SEC Occupation
in total spends
Salaried
18-25 yrs
SEC A 30% 44%
Wave 3 28% 48%
32% 43% 34% 42% Self-employed
26-35 yrs
33% 42%
34% 41%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Wave 2 SEC B
36-45+ yrs Small business
30% 47% 24% 47%
34% 41% 17% 52%
Wave 3
% expecting increase in total spends in the next 6 months % expecting decrease in total spends in the next 6 months
Question text: "How do you expect your overall spends to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?" Note: Self-employed includes professions like doctors, CAs, yoga
instructors, etc. Small business includes businesses withIndia—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Essentials, at-home entertainment, health and insurance consistent
winners; travel, OOH, discretionary, large ticket purchases losers
Categories with net Categories with net
increase in spends decrease in spends Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May
Winners 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May Losers
Fresh foods Vacation/leisure travel
Staples Business travel
Travel
Public transport
Household care products
Daily Spas, theme parks, concerts
essentials Personal care products
Restaurants
Utilities (electricity, water) OOH
Entertainment Movies at cinema hall
Mobile services Luxury brands/products
Home wifi connection Cosmetics, makeup, perfume
At-home Paid OTT subscription Apparel/fashion
entertainment Discretionary
DTH services Tobacco & smoking supplies
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
spends
Toys & games Alcohol
Food delivery
Savings
Saving/ Sports equipment & clothing
Investments Insurance
Electronics Non-mobile consumer electronics
Preventive diagnostics/test
Mobile electronics
Vitamins, herbs, supplements Home construction/renovations
Home
Health Medical procedures Home furnishings and décor
First-aid Scooters/bikes
Auto Cars
Education
Education
Packaged food & beverage
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories with Top 2 Box > (5% more than average) classified as winning categories. Categories with Bottom 2 Box > (5% 7
more than average) classified as losing categories. Categories neutral across waves: Baby/children's food, Non prescription medications, Prescription medicines, House rent, Home purchase & home loans.
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively)India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Significant concerns around loan re-payments; reduced demand
likely to reflect in low demand for associated loan products as well
86% consumers are worried about 30-40% plan to defer loans; while 15- ~30% customers plan to take a loan of
servicing loans post moratorium 20% new customers plan to take loans smaller ticket-size
% consumers who have loans Among consumers who were intending to Among consumers who intended to take
buy these categories pre-COVID loan pre COVID and still plan to take it1
14 13 Not worried/ 13%
Not at all worried 20% Same value
58
as planned
27 30 Somewhat worried
44%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
48% Lesser value
28
than planned
59 57 Extremely worried
43% More value
32% 14
than planned
Home loan Auto loan Home Loan Auto loan
Had no intent to take loan but now plan to take in next 6 months
Had intent to take loan and still plan to take in next 6 months
Had intent to take loan but now postponed or cancelled
8
Question text: "How worried are you about paying your existing loan payment once the moratorium is lifted?" 1. Includes responses from those intending to take secured & unsecured loans
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Shopping outlets in mall likely to be worst hit; E-commerce preferred, however
skepticism around restrictions on assortment
Change in spends in next 1 month
(assuming all retail options are accessible) Drivers to reduce spends Drivers to increase spends
Online websites Unsure about product
35 32 33 61% availability
50% To avoid exposure to crowd
Expect higher prices – no Prefer a nearby shop, minimize
Local shops 30 34 36 54%
discounts
48% travel
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Stand alone stores
31 23 46 44% To avoid crowded places 45% Expect discounts/ promotions
(Single/ multi brand)
Shopping outlets
in malls
26 20 54 54% To avoid crowded places 40% Expect wider assortment
% consumers (among those who will decrease % consumers (among those who will increase
Increase spends Same spends Reduce spends spends) spends)
Note: Question text: "In the next one month, how much do you expect your total spend on the following types of stores/sites to change"; "What are the key reasons to increase/ decrease
spends (Top 3 reasons)"
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020, (N = 2,324) 9India—Wave 2—April, 2020 India
Significant adoption across digital activities with high
willingness to continue in future
Digital media Digital purchase Digital Payments
Increase in the # of users
(Users over the last 1 month indexed to
pre COVID users) 1.7x
1.4x 1.3x
1.25x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Online games Online news Paid digital Fresh Food Staples Personal care Net Banking Digital wallet
videos
% new users likely to continue in future (scores for Very high willingness)
57% 63% 56% 54% 45% 55% 49% 48%
Note: Question text: “How would describe your usage behavior in past 1 month (just before or post lockdown)?"; "Willingness to continue in next 6 months" 10
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324)India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
1 in 3 likely to trade down for discretionary categories, while more
trading up in staples/ HH care
Daily essentials Discretionary spends
Trading up:
Buying more expensive 24 25 22 26
30 29 32 28
brands or higher 34
variant of same brand
26
43 45 41
No Change: 47 29
40
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Buying the same
55 56
brand
46
32 33 33 37
Trading down: 28 29
Buying cheaper brands 14 15
or lower variant of
same brand Staples Household Packaged F&B Personal care Apparel/ Alcohol Cosmetics, Mobile device Consumer
care Fashion make up durables
(Large & small
Trade up No Change Trade down
appliances)
Note: Categories considered: Apparel/ Fashion, Packaged F&B, Staples, Personal care, Cosmetics, Household care products, Mobile, Electronics (large, small), Alcohol
Question text: In the next one month (CPG)/ six month (Electronics) how do you expect the choice of your brands to change?
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327) 11India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Over 50% believe that Treatment and containment of cases are the
strongest indicators that the virus is in control
Government relaxations & re-opening of restaurants, shops, offices least likely to instill confidence
Consumer definitions of "under control"
Vaccine/ medicines available 51%
Number of new cases slowdown globally 43%
Treatment/
Medication to treat virus approved 36%
containment
No/negligible new cases in India 33%
Number of new cases in India slowdown 32%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Coronavirus testing widely available 28%
Government removes restrictions 24%
Removal of restrictions
Easing of Majority of retail stores re-open 17%
not considered an
curbs Majority of offices re-open 16% effective indicator for
the Virus to be in control
Majority of restaurants re-open for dining in 14%
Note: Question text: "When will you feel that the Coronavirus is under control? Please select up to three."
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327) 12India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Time till spending returns to 'normal'
post the virus is 'under control' (%)
Flights 5 11 53 25 6
Hotels 8 20 47 21 4
Travel &
Travel & OOH Tourism
Trains 6 25 50 16 3
entertainment
unlikely to witness Bus/Metro 17 28 41 12 1
immediate revival Commute Auto/Taxi 30 37 20 11 2
even post Virus
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
control, local retail Local shops 40 43 11 51
likely to bounce back Retail
sooner Malls 16 35 38 7 2
Restaurants 14 33 39 13 1
Note: Question text: “If coronavirus were to be under
control, after how long do you think your spending OOH
would return to normal i.e., similar to before the
Coronavirus outbreak?" Excludes those who never did leisure Movie theatres 12 31 38 14 5
the activity before Coronavirus
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey
April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 1,327) Immediately Within a few weeks Within a few months In 1 year or more Never 13India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
Resuming Travel driven by treatment availability, OOH entertainment driven by
containment of new cases while local shops/ commute driven by removal of restrictions
Travel & Tourism Commute Retail OOH leisure
Willing to resume some level
of the activity (%) Flights Hotels Trains Bus/Metro Auto/Taxi Local shops Malls Restaurants Movies
Vaccine/ medicines are available 88 83 85 63 61 32 73 74 71
Medication/ drugs are approved 83 83 82 64 60 25 69 71 71
No/negligible new cases in India 73 71 73 51 47 25 84 88 81
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
New cases in India slow down 71 74 71 48 46 24 83 82 82
New cases slowdown globally 74 72 21 23 20 5 20 19 18
Government removes restrictions 22 20 23 62 70 81 51 52 45
Note: Question text: "Which of the following must be in place before you will be comfortable doing this activity? Please select all that apply."
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327) 14The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care
prior to producing this COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Research, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time.
COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Research is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute
for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are
advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using COVID-19 Consumer
Sentiment Research as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision.
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
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