Cover Story POLL POSITION - Midway through India's electoral Mahabharat, the battle is evenly poised
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Vol: 27 | No. 5 | May 2019| R20
www.opinionexpress.in A MONTHLY NEWS MAGAZINE
POLL POSITION
Cover Story
Midway through India’s electoral Mahabharat,
the battle is evenly poised
Thank You BIPL %DODML,QIUD3URMHFWV/LPLWHG www.balaji.co.in www.dighiport.in
editorial
Modi factor holds the key for
NDA II to make a comeback?
RNI UP–ENG 70032/92, Volume 27, No 5
EDITOR
Prashant Tewari
L
Associate Editor ove him, hate him but people will keep his name on the board. Narendra
Dr Rahul Misra
Modi is the focal point of discussion either ways for the ongoing general elec-
Political Editor
Prakhar Misra
tions in India. There is an extreme sharp division in the voters in favour or
against Narendra Modi in the entire country. News channels, news papers, social
BUREAU CHIEF
Anshuman Dogra (DELHI), Diwakar Shetty media reflects vertical division in the society. India was never more divided on
(MUMBAI), Sidhartha Sharma (KOLKATA), ideological ground than it is today for the GE 2019. Rahul Gandhi led Congress is
Lakshmi Devi (BANGALORE ) DIvyash Bajpai slightly better placed than in 2014, with state governments in
(USA), KAPIL DUDAKIA (UNITED KINGDOM)
Rajiv Agnihotri (MAURITIUS), Romil Raj M.P., Rajasthan and Chattisgarh under his belt – Congress
Bhagat (DUBAI), Herman Silochan (CANADA), is poised for substantive gains. But with the reverses in the
Dr Shiv Kumar (AUS/NZ), Nithya Ramesh recently concluded state elections, BJP has tighten its belt in
(Fashion & Entertainment )
going ahead to the planning of the GE 2019. Narendra Modi
Content partner
has rebranded himself round the garb of nationalism post
The Pioneer
Pratham Pravakta Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot Air strike.
Legal Advisors After four phases, Modi’s change in campaign tactic to say
Vishnu Sharma Adv the BJP win is certain will give the BJP the winner’s momen-
Vijai Krishna Adv tum. Again losing an opportunity, Rahul Gandhi has not given
Advertisement / Marketing Director a convincing feel that the job of dethroning Modi has been almost achieved. So what
Diwakar Shetty
Gopal Chopra
is 2019 all about? Till May 23 proves us all right, or wrong – I would argue there is a
Administrative Director
mild Modi wave in the country. It is an under- current to give him another chance,
Amit Pandey all things considered. It does not sound as strong as 2014 but BJP has a distinguish
Bal Mukund Gaur advantage over its rivals in running a well oiled campaign. Prime Minister Narendra
Corporate Communication / PR Modi’s BJP is flush with cash, giving his bloc a massive advantage over the main op-
Sanjay Mendiratta position Congress party as he seeks to win a second term in India’s general election.
M M Upadhaya
But current and former BJP supporters, opposition politicians, businessmen and ac-
Graphics & Design
Writeword Commuications (Studio 8) tivists interviewed say Modi has an unprecedented advantage, thanks to its financial
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muscle and structure party cadre. The regional power house in Telengana, AP, WB
Ratan Shukla and TN are likely to play a decisive role in the formation of the next government. We
Overseas Marketing may revert to the GE 2004 & 2009 like situation where in the southern parties played
OEMCL Ltd (Mauritius), OEHCL ltd (DUBAI) dominant role in the formation of the government at the centre.
Advertisement / Circulation: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may cross the mag-
Delhi / NCR - Hemant Sharma: D 239 ic threshold of 272 mark in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. According to the OPINION
Defence Colony New Delhi 110024 INDIA
Tel – 011 49060350 EXPRESS survey, the NDA may win 280-290 seats, the Congress-led UPA - 111,
Mumbai - Vijay Kalantri – Advisor: New Others - 144. The BJP, according to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats
ExcelsIor BUILDING, 6tH Floor, A.K. NAYAK it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share from
MARG, Fort, MUMBAI - 400001 (INDIA). 31.34 percent to 36 per cent. The Congress will increase its seats tally from the 44
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it won in 2014 to 85-90 seats; its vote share will go from 19.52% to near 27% in the
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national elections. The others are predicted to get 125 seats with a 31% vote share
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& Entertainments Pvt Ltd, from Kumpu Graphic Second most important factor is the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra
Press 2 Ashok Nagar, Lucknow & printed at Modi to the run up of General Elections. He is scoring over 51% approval rating in
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– 226001 Tele : 91-522-4060880 & their various surveys conducted by several domestic and overseas agencies. Modi is
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area where BJP is traditionally weak.
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securing an edge for BJP in the general elections.
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All content published may be subject to copyright, ing to India for settling down with the next government in the month of May 2019.
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—Prashant Tewari , Editor-in-Chief
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O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 3
A Monthly News Magazine
May 2019
Cover Story
PITCHED
BATTLE
FROM CAKEWALK TO A
REAL TIME CONTEST:
INDIA’S 2019 GENERAL
ELECTION
P 5-15
16 34 46
CLOSE The ‘Art’
SHAVE ! man rolls on
24
India’s 2019 WHY Varun
elections: What Gandhi?
you need to
know
28 Why the 2019
election may
be the most 38
crucial in BREXIT
India’s history BLUES
42
EQ Factor
State of emotional
intelligence in the
contemporary society
4 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s s
Cover story
PITCHED
BATTLE
FROM CAKEWALK TO A REAL TIME CONTEST: INDIA’S
2019 GENERAL ELECTION
Milan Vaishnav
E
lectoral outcomes are noto-
riously difficult to predict in
India’s fragmented, hyper-
competitive democracy. But
one need not go out on a limb to declare
that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Par-
ty (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi would be the clear favorite if the
election were held today. Following the
BJP’s decisive 2014 mandate, many an-
alysts confidently proclaimed that Modi
would remain in power for at least two,
if not three, terms.
Opinion polls reveal that Modi re-
mains highly popular after five years in
office, and the BJP has managed to me-
thodically expand its national footprint
in numerous state elections since 2014.
The opposition, comprised of the once-
dominant Indian National Congress
and a plethora of regional parties, has
struggled to counter the BJP onslaught.
Yet the election’s clear front-runner is
far from invulnerable, despite anticipa-
tion of a BJP cakewalk in 2019.
Although the intricacies of the up-
coming race—such as the selection of
candidates and the rhetoric of cam-
paigns—remain unknown one year out,
underlying structural conditions sug- election will hinge largely on its abil- New Delhi. Although the UPA oversaw
gest far rockier terrain may lie ahead. In ity to address these potential vulner- record economic growth during its first
particular, four crucial objectives keep abilities and the opposition’s ability to term, its second term was markedly less
BJP strategists up at night: expanding exploit them. To understand the BJP’s positive, as a slowing economy, doubts
beyond regional strongholds, recruit- position today, one must recall how un- about its leadership, and an endless
ing new—and retaining old—coalition usual India’s 2014 election results were. parade of corruption scandals badly
partners, withstanding a disappointing Between 2004 and 2014, the Congress dented the Congress-led alliance’s cred-
economic performance, and contending Party and its allies (known collectively ibility.
with fluctuations in voter mobilization. as the United Progressive Alliance, or INDIA ELECTS 2019: In an era
The party’s performance in the 2019 UPA) ran the central government in of fractured political mandates in New
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 5
Delhi, the Modi-led BJP achieved what many
analysts believed was unthinkable: it won a
clear, single-party majority in the lower house
of the Indian parliament (the Lok Sabha) by
capturing 282 of 543 seats (see figure 1). Its
political allies—members of the BJP-led Na-
tional Democratic Alliance (NDA)—netted an-
other fifty-three seats.
Although the BJP campaigned under the
banner of “Mission 272” (a number that rep-
resents the threshold for a parliamentary ma-
jority), few Indians (even within the BJP it-
self) believed that the party was likely to meet,
let alone surpass, this mark on its own. The
2014 electoral outcome was historic.
No party had obtained a clear majority of
Lok Sabha seats on its own since 1984 when
the Congress did so after the assassination of
former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. 2014
was the first time a non-Congress party had
achieved an outright majority by itself without
the need for a large, unwieldy coalition. Mean-
while, the Congress sank to its lowest total in
history— a paltry forty-four seats. Prior to
2014, the fewest seats the Congress had won
in a general election were 114 in 1999.
In addition, the 2014 election saw record
voter turnout: 66.4 percent of eligible voters
(or roughly 554 million voters) cast ballots, a
sharp uptick from the 58 percent recorded in
the two previous elections. With each passing
year, the national reach of the BJP has grown
while the reach of the Congress has shrunk.
The BJP and its allies now run twenty-one of
India’s twenty-nine states—home to over 70
percent of the Indian population (see figure
2).
Prior to Modi’s election, the NDA con-
trolled just eight states. The BJP’s gains have
largely come at the expense of the Congress;
whereas the latter ran thirteen states prior
to the last general election, today it governs
in just four. Furthermore, only two of these
(Karnataka and Punjab) have substantial pop-
ulations (with roughly 90 million residents
between them).
6 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s s
Although the BJP
campaigned under the
banner of “Mission
272” (a number
that represents
the threshold for
a parliamentary
majority), few Indians
(even within the BJP
itself) believed that
the party was likely
to meet, let alone
surpass, this mark
on its own. The 2014
electoral outcome was
historic.
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 7
Although Modi’s rating might sound low from a compar-
ative perspective, it is remarkably high for India’s fragment-
ed political system in which 464 parties contested the 2014
general election. While Gandhi’s rating had risen to 20 per-
cent by January 2018, Modi’s popularity has remained ex-
tremely stable throughout his four years in office (hovering
around 37 percent). Historically, Gandhi’s rating has proven
erratic, in part due to his twin struggles with consistency and
effectiveness. Pulling off an encore performance of the BJP’s
sweeping 2014 victory will be a tall order; to compensate for
potential losses in its core areas, the party must venture into
new territory.
1. In 2014, the BJP virtually swept areas where it tra-
ditionally enjoys strong support in northern and west-
ern India. Just eight states—Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat,
Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and
Uttar Pradesh—accounted for over 75 percent of the BJP’s
2. BJP’s 2014 Performance in Core States Non-BJP seat
BJP seat No data Note: The maps indicate the partisan con-
trol of states in 2014 and 2018, respectively. 4 tally in par-
liament. Collectively, these states account for 273 seats, of
which the BJP won 216 (nearly 80 percent). Running the
table in two consecutive elections will be an uphill battle.
Indian voters are legendary for their tendency to harbor
anti-incumbency sentiments; research suggests that indi-
vidual members of parliament (MPs) are just as likely to get
thrown out of office at the end of their term as to get voted
back in. There are also state-level anti-incumbency effects
that have negative spillovers on national politics. Parlia-
mentary candidates representing a given state’s ruling party
enjoy an electoral advantage in national elections, but only
when national elections are held early in the state govern-
ment’s term.
Once this honeymoon period is over, holding power in
India’s states becomes a liability in general elections. This
poses a problem for the BJP, which serves as the ruling party
in all eight of these core states; in five of them, its govern-
ments are nearing the ends of their terms. Because Modi and
BJP President Amit Shah—a longtime Modi aide and a savvy
campaign strategist—know engineering another sweep of
these eight core states will be difficult, they have placed great
importance on expanding the BJP’s footprint into parts of
the country where it traditionally has been weak.
Hence, the BJP’s painstaking devotion to breaking into
India’s northeast—long considered being a bastion of the
Congress and smaller regional parties. The northeast is of-
ten seen as inconsequential to the overall electoral picture
given that it accounts for just 3.7 percent of India’s popula-
tion. Yet the region boasts twenty-five parliamentary seats, a
tempting prize for a party that covets new territory to com-
8 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s s
Gandhi’s rating had risen
to 20 percent by January
2018, Modi’s popularity has
remained extremely stable
throughout his four years
in office (hovering around
37 percent). Historically,
Gandhi’s rating has proven
erratic, in part due to his twin
struggles with consistency
and effectiveness. Pulling
off an encore performance
of the BJP’s sweeping 2014
victory will be a tall order;
to compensate for potential
losses in its core areas, the
party must venture into new
territory.
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 9
pensate for losses likely to be sustained
elsewhere.
Thanks to a series of recent state-
level victories, the BJP now sits in gov-
ernment in seven of these eight states
and is building up organizational and
alliance networks across the region; as
a relatively new player in northeastern
India, the BJP is less likely to fall prey to
Indian voters’ antipathy for incumbents
there than in the party’s traditional
strongholds.
Whereas the Congress retains the
capacity to put up a good fight in the
Hindi heartland, its stature in the north-
east has rapidly diminished. Having
established a foothold in northeastern
India, the BJP now aims to increase its
strength along India’s eastern seaboard
in major states such as Odisha, Tamil
Nadu, Telangana, and West Bengal. In
a fifth state, Andhra Pradesh, the BJP
has worked primarily through a key alli-
ance partner—the Telugu Desam Party
(TDP).
The four aforementioned states
serve as a sort of firewall the BJP has
struggled to penetrate in national elec-
tions. All told, these five states collec-
tively account for 144 seats in the par-
liament. Each is home to one (or more)
powerful parties with strong ties to lin-
guistic, regional, and cultural identities
the BJP currently lacks. However, this
firewall may be fracturing.
In West Bengal, the BJP trails the
ruling Trinamool Congress Party in
terms of statewide appeal. But it views
the demise of the two principal oppo-
sition forces—the Left (a coalition of
left-leaning parties) and the Congress—
as providing a crucial opening for it to
emerge as the second-largest party. The
ruling Biju Janata Dal of Odisha won
twenty of twenty-one parliamentary
seats in 2014, ceding just one to the
BJP.
But the latter won one-quarter of the
vote and has subsequently performed
well in municipal elections. In Tamil
Nadu, the BJP is a bit player on its own
but sees the potential to make inroads
through alliances. Fissures within the
state’s ruling party, the All India Anna
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have giv-
en the BJP hope that the party system
might be ripe for realignment. Coalition
dynamics sustaining previous hard-won
gains and breaking new ground in pock-
ets of the country outside BJP strong-
holds, however, will require partners.
On this score, the BJP’s prognosis is
mixed. On the one hand, thanks to the
widespread sense that the BJP has the
10 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sO p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 11
12 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s s
wind at its back, the party has become have seen a precipitous decline nearly
the central pole around which politics everywhere save for the state of Kerala,
in India revolves. This distinguished its last remaining stronghold. The up-
position once belonged to the Congress, start Aam Aadmi Party, which came
but its recent electoral stumbles and to power in the Delhi state assembly
the BJP’s abundant successes have de- by way of an assertive, agitation brand
cisively changed the equation. In three of politics, has struggled to extend its
Two of the BJP’s recent state elections—in Goa, Ma-
nipur, and Meghalaya—the BJP failed
reach beyond the national capital.
Moreover, parties opposed to the
biggest allies, the Shiv to emerge as the single largest party. BJP have failed to coordinate and pool
Nonetheless, thanks to its allure as an their votes so as to keep the BJP out of
Sena in Maharashtra alliance partner, the BJP formed gov- power. There have been two notable ex-
and the TDP in ernments in all ceptions where opposition parties have
3. Decided to join a party gaining set aside their differences and forged a
Andhra Pradesh, have momentum rather than one appearing degree of bonhomie. The first was the
recently put the BJP to lose it. Across states, the BJP, not
the Congress, seems to be the default
2015 state election in Bihar, where a so-
called grand alliance of opposition par-
on notice that they governing party. Yet recent events sug- ties joined hands to keep the BJP from
gest that the BJP’s electoral coalition is winning power. The opposition alli-
are unhappy with its showing signs of strain. Existing BJP al- ance won a resounding victory, but this
“arrogant” leadership lies are voicing concerns about the par- short-lived marriage of convenience
ty’s methods, raising the possibility that ultimately ended when one party de-
style. The Shiv Sena its electoral coalition could fracture. fected.
announced in January Two of the BJP’s biggest allies, the
Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the TDP
More recently, in March 2018, two
rival regional parties in Uttar Pradesh
2018 that it would in Andhra Pradesh, have recently put buried their long-standing differences
contest the 2019 the BJP on notice that they are unhappy
with its “arrogant” leadership style. The
to jointly defeat the BJP in a special
election. Regional players could give
elections alone, rather Shiv Sena announced in January 2018 the BJP a run for its money in their re-
that it would contest the 2019 elections spective states, but doing so will require
than with the BJP. alone, rather than with the BJP. them to work cooperatively—something
In March, the TDP pulled its min- that does not come naturally to rivals
isters from the central cabinet in New who bitterly jostle for political space.
Delhi to express disappointment with The effects of the BJP’s own alliance
the Modi government’s failure to help drama will be mitigated if the opposi-
Andhra Pradesh tap additional central tion proves unable or unwilling to do
government funds. When the BJP re- business together in 2019.
fused to budge, the TDP announced its ECONOMIC ANXIETY But it is not
decision to formally exit the alliance. only allies the BJP must worry about re-
These ruptures, while not fatal or ir- taining; many voters who were swayed
reversible, potentially complicate the by Modi’s promise to usher in acche din
BJP’s electoral arithmetic in 2019. If (good times) by reenergizing the In-
the BJP is successfully tarred as anti- dian economy have also grown restive.
Andhra, it would be difficult for the In 2014, India was plagued by slump-
party to notch a pre-poll alliance with ing growth, ballooning deficits, stalled
any of the major regional parties there, investments, and soaring inflation—of-
increasing the likelihood that a sizeable fering the BJP untold opportunities to
chunk of the state’s twenty-five seats critique the Congress Party’s misman-
would be out of the BJP’s reach. In agement of bread and-butter issues.
Maharashtra, provided the opposition Although invocations of Hindu ma-
coalition remains intact, the split with joritarianism also populated the BJP’s
the Shiv Sena could create a three way entreaties, it was the BJP’s insistence
race. Luckily for the BJP, the opposition that it would rectify the declining econ-
remains in disarray. The Congress has omy that resonated across the coun-
been slow to rectify the organizational try. Yet as economic progress under
and leadership deficiencies laid bare Modi has fallen short of expectations,
in 2014. As one senior party leader has anxieties about the lack of job creation
mused, the Congress has faced electoral have led to massive popular protests
crises before, but what it faces today is in state after state. While the intensity
an existential crisis. and scope of voter disaffection with In-
While it wills likely gain seats in dia’s economy is not certain, there are
2019, one Congress leader privately ad- signs that disquiet is rising among rural
mitted that a triple-digit figure would voters who decisively backed the BJP
be a stretch at present.1 Left parties four years ago. Given that farmers ac-
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 13count for roughly half of India’s labor an election year when the pressure to result of successive droughts.
force, rural economic woes raise alarm spend will be elevated. The BJP is betting that its flag-
bells for every incumbent politician. Furthermore, the Modi govern- ship welfare schemes might inoculate
BJP strategists once believed that eco- ment’s decisions to abruptly remove it against its patchy economic record.
nomic revival would be the hallmark of high-value currency notes from circu- Criticized for having cozy links to cor-
the 2019 campaign. Unfortunately for lation (“demonetize”) and enact the porate capital, Modi’s administration
them, the economy has not experienced sweeping Goods and Services Tax re- has doggedly tried to burnish its pro-
a uniform revival form have hurt short-term growth, ir- poor credentials by doubling down on
4. Growth, while high by interna- respective of their longer-term merits. major welfare schemes—such as grant-
tional standards, remains well below More importantly, for the average In- ing every household a bank account,
the country’s potential. A failure to deal dian, job growth has been anemic. Ac- initiating free cooking gas connections
quickly with a systemic banking crisis cording to the Reserve Bank of India, to families below the poverty line, and
has bogged down the domestic invest- total employment actually shrank be- ensuring universal affordable housing.
ment cycle. Inflation, which has fallen tween 2014 and 2016. While it appears These efforts notwithstanding, eco-
from the double-digit levels of the ten- that nonfarm jobs grew over this peri- nomic travails are especially apparent
ure of the Congress, remains a risk in od, farming jobs declined—perhaps as a in rural India. Although once the bai-
14 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s s5. Encountered serious rural oppo-
sition—especially in the key region of Voter turnout had
Saurashtra—where the Congress pre-
vailed by capitalizing on caste politics previously peaked at 64
and the waning fortunes of farmers. In
March 2018, as many as 50,000 farm-
percent in 1984 and fell
ers in Maharashtra descended on the to between 56 and 62
state capital of Mumbai to demand the
BJP state government move swiftly to
percent in subsequent
aid them. election cycles. As
How wide this disaffection has
spread is unclear. All eyes will be on Neelanjan Sircar has
upcoming state elections in Karnataka pointed out, there was
(in May 2018) and Chhattisgarh, Mad-
hya Pradesh, Mizoram, and Rajasthan a strong association
(in December 2018) to discern whether
this alleged drop-off in rural locales is
between the growth in
sustained. A final concern for the BJP in voter turnout and the
2019 is voter mobilization. In 2014, the
party successfully channeled popular improved fortunes of the
disaffection with the incumbent Con- BJP in the 2014 election.
gress Party into record voter turnout
(66.4 percent).
Voter turnout had previously peaked
at 64 percent in 1984 and fell to be- and Shah are wasting no time in reca-
tween 56 and 62 percent in subsequent librating their approach to mitigate the
election cycles. As Neelanjan Sircar has BJP’s unexpected challenges. For in-
pointed out, there was a strong associa- stance, the government’s most recent
tion between the growth in voter turn- budget was packed with pro-poor rhet-
out and the improved fortunes of the oric and numerous sops meant to allay
BJP in the 2014 election. A key source rural anger. As existing allies are grow-
of strength came from young voters. ing wary of the BJP’s modus operandi,
Research has demonstrated that states the party’s high command has stepped
with the largest increases in the share up its outreach to smooth frayed rela-
of young, first-time voters in 2014 also tions. And, concerned about waning
experienced the biggest gains in BJP voter enthusiasm, Modi has directed
vote share. the party’s elected representatives to
With the novelty of Modi and BJP redouble efforts to connect with con-
rule in New Delhi wearing thin, there stituents. In one instance, Modi is re-
is a risk that voter turnout will return ported to have warned sitting BJP MPs
to ordinary levels, reducing the BJP’s that they must amass at least 300,000
enthusiasm advantage. One key demo- followers on social media or risk los-
graphic the BJP believes it can ener- ing their party tickets. The opposition
gize in 2019 is women. Although they is making adjustments as well. Gan-
do not vote as a bloc per se, the party dhi and the once-dithering Congress
believes several of its welfare schemes appear more focused and consistent.
have special resonance with women The opposition, at least rhetorically, is
and can influence their votes. This is embracing the need to forge a common
liwick of the Congress, many rural vot- significant because Indian females are anti-BJP front in 2019. Twelve months
ers in 2014 switched their allegiance to voting in greater numbers than ever is an eternity in politics, but one thing
the BJP, party that has historically per- before. has become evident: once thought to
formed better with city-dwellers. The In 2014, women voted at higher be a cakewalk for the BJP is now a real
rural shift toward the BJP could eas- rates than men in sixteen of India’s battle to return back to power.
ily swing back to the Congress; for in- thirty-five states and union territories.
stance, available data suggests that sup- At the state level, female turnout now
port for the BJP alliance among farmers regularly surpasses male turnout. The Writer is the director and a senior
has declined over the past year. Indeed, BJP’s Mobilization Advantage in 2014 fellow in the South Asia Program at the
recent distress in the farming sector is Source: Author’s calculations based on Carnegie Endowment for International
likely sending chills down the spines of data from the Election Commission of Peace. He is co-editor (with Devesh Ka-
BJP leaders. Despite Modi’s promises to India (ECI). pur) of the forthcoming book, Costs of
double agrarian incomes by 2022, ag- CONCLUSION One year in ad- Democracy: Political Finance in India
riculture remains in a state of disrepair. vance, many details of the 2019 race re- (Oxford University Press, 2018).
While the causes of this distress are large- main unknown, but its structural driv- © 2018 Carnegie Endowment for
ly structural, proximate factors such a ers are quickly coming into view. Modi International Peace.
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 15CLOSE
SHAVE !
Opinion Express Opinion Poll
BJP may fall 46 seats short of magic
mark of 272, NDA may cross 290
YSRC, TRS & BJD may act as buffer
for BJP to form the govt
Prime Minister Narendra Modi may
just make it to be back in power
OE Political Bureau
T
he BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre
may cross the magic threshold of 272 mark in the 543-
seat Lok Sabha, if elections were held today, says our
opinion poll. According to the survey, conducted be-
tween 1 March and 31 March 2019, the NDA may win
290 seats, the Congress-led UPA - 111, Others - 144. The BJP, ac-
cording to the poll, will come down from the 282 seats it had won
in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections but will increase its vote share
from 31.34 percent to 36 per cent. The Congress will increase its
seats tally from the 44 it won in 2014 to 85-90 seats; its vote share
will go from 19.52% to near 27% in the national elections. The
others are predicted to get 125 seats with a 31% vote share in the
Lok Sabha.
Second most important factor is the popularity of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi to the run up of General Elec-
tions. He is scoring over 51% approval rating in their
various surveys conducted by several domestic and
overseas agencies. Modi is perceived as the strong
leader capable of defending the country from
external and internal aggression. Modi’s pro
poor schemes are likely to yield results in
the rural area where BJP is traditionally
weak.
Third, BJP is in fierce fight in the
areas where it has no stakes prior
to 2014. Today it is a force in West
Bengal, North East, Odisha and it
is desperately trying to open ac-
count in Kerala, Telengana. It is
largely the hard work of Amit
16 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sO p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 17
Shah to create a fighting base in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections it is in for a minor jolt in the country’s
states where BJP is likely to gain sub- Times Opinion Express most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. The
stantial seats. Opinion Poll: State-wise NDA tally is likely to slump to 40 out of
The last five years, RSS has expand- results the total 80 seats, compared to 73 seats
ed its cadre across India with a friendly Uttar Pradesh (80/80): The it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
government in centre. The disciplined Opinion Express Opinion Poll survey The BJP’s vote share is likely to be down
RSS cadre is likely to play a pivotal role predicts three corner fight between by 2.8 per cent. The SP-BSP alliance is
in securing an edge for BJP in the gen- BJP, SP-BSP ALLAINCE, CONGRESS expected to reap benefits for the opposi-
eral elections. may act as a boon to the NDA though tion and the alliance could bag as many
18 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sThe SP-BSP alliance is
expected to reap benefits
for the opposition and
the alliance could bag
as many as 35-38 seats,
compared to the just
five seats it won in 2014.
The Congress will stay
flat with expected wins
in two-three seats. The
poll will witness heavy
weights PM Modi, Sonia
Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi,
Rajnath Singh, Meneka
and Varun Gandhi,
Mulayam Singh Yadav,
Akhilesh Yadav in fray.
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 19as 35-38 seats, compared to the just The BJP, however, is likely to make a RJD base to clinch the elections
five seats it won in 2014. The Congress jump from 2 seats in 2014 to 9-10 in Tamil Nadu (39/39): As far as
will stay flat with expected wins in two- 2019. The Congress, however, is ex- seat share projections are concerned,
three seats. The poll will witness heavy pected to win just 1-2 seats, while Left Congress-led United Progressive Alli-
weights PM Modi, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Front is likely to win one seat. The TMC ance (UPA) is expected to make huge
Gandhi, Rajnath Singh, Meneka and had won 34 of the total 42 seats in 2014 gains and win 30 out of 39 seats. The
Varun Gandhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lok Sabha Elections. The Congress had All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Ka-
Akhilesh Yadav in fray. bagged four, the BJP 2 and the Left zhagam with NDA alliance is likely to
Maharashtra (48/48): In 2019 Front two. WB elections are likely to win nine seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha
Lok Sabha Elections, the NDA is likely witness huge turmoil and violence due Elections, the Congress and its allies
to win 35-38 seats, five less than it did to the extreme divide of left and right had failed to win even a single seat,
in 2014. The Congress+NCP, however, cadre. while the AIADMK won 37 of the total
are likely to win 8 seats, 4 more than it Bihar (40/40): The number of 39 seats. The BJP+ and others had won
did in 2014. As per the survey, the UPA seats won by the BJP+JD (U) in Bi- one each. Surely, Modi led government
is likely to win 8-10 seats in 2019. The har in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections is has mishandled the state government
performance of the Fernavis govern- likely to go down from 32 to 28. The post Jayalathiha death and DMK is
ment will be put to litmus test in the Congress+RJD, however, are likely to likely to cash in the sympathy votes due
Lok Sabha elections. increase its tally from 8 in 2014 to 12 to Kalaignar death.
West Bengal (42/42): Mamata in 2019. Modi Nitish Kumar can attract Madhya Pradesh (29/29): The
Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Con- voters better than Lalu Congress alli- Modi factor will ensure BJP to win the
gress is likely to win the maximum ance simply because Lalu is in jail and maximum number of seats in Madhya
number of seats (30) in West Bengal. Congress party has no cadre to support Pradesh in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
20 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sCongress seems to be failing in capital- Congress and JD(S) remains a divided remaining 8 seats. The BJP had done
ising on gains in Assembly Elections in house on the ground, it may lead to BJP a clean sweep in Rajasthan in the 2014
the state. As per the survey, the BJP is advantage. Lok Sabha elections, winning all 25
likely to win 21-23 seats and Congress Gujarat (26/26): Despite anti- seats. The chemistry between the state
5-6. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, incumbency, the BJP is likely to win 23- leader Vasundhra and national leader-
the BJP led the tally with 27 seats while 24 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The ship is going to impact the outcome of
the Congress had won just two out of BJP had made a clean sweep in 2014. the elections.
the total 29 seats. MP state is likely to From zero in 2014, Congress is likely Andhra Pradesh (25/25): YSR
vote differently in the state and national to gain 2-3 seats this time. Gujrat is the Congress Party chief Jagan Mohan
elections. home state of PM Narendra Modi so it Reddy may end up as the kingmaker
Karnataka (28/28): The BJP and is likely to vote heavily in favour of son as the YSRCP is expected to bag 17-18
Congress-JD(s) are contesting pitched of soil. Congress party is lacking in local seats. While the Telugu Desam Party is
battle. BJP is likely to win 16 seats each leadership, the recent import Hardik expected to win only 6-7 seats, the BJP
in Karnataka in 2019 Lok Sabha Elec- Patel and rest may have a little impact and Congress are not likely to open their
tions. In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, on the broader general elections. accounts. In 2014, it was the ruling TDP
the BJP had won 17, while Congress Rajasthan (25/25): Rajasthan that had bagged maximum seats (15).
had bagged 11 seats. Although BJP losses could halt the BJP’s march to a The YSR Congress Party had won eight
state leader Yaddurappa is seen as a majority as the NDA loses 8-10 seats while the BJP had bagged two out of the
liability and Ananth Kumar death has and comes down to 15-17 in the state, total 25.
further jolted the BJP, but it may ride as per Opinion Express Poll survey. Odisha (21/21): Odisha state will
on the Modi under current. However, The Congress is expected to grab the vote two ways in the Lok Sabha AND
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 21Vidhan Sabha. Modi is likely to be pre- Punjab (13/13): Setback in store all the five seats in the state in 2019 Lok
ferred as PM and Naveen Babu remains for the NDA? As per the survey, the NDA Sabha Elections.
the favorite as CM for the state of Od- is likely to retain two of the six seats it Himachal Pradesh (4/4): The
isha. The BJP is likely to make a huge won in 2014. The Congress could gain BJP is expected to win 3 and Congress
gain in Odisha in 2019 Lok Sabha Elec- big by bagging 10-11 seats; AAP party is 1 seat in Himachal Pradesh in 2019 Lok
tions. From just one seat in 2014, the likely to suffer heavy losses in the Lok Sabha Elections.
BJP is expected to bag 13 seats this time. Sabha elections. Goa (2/2): The ruling Bharatiya
The tally of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is Chhattisgarh (11/11): The UPA is Janata Party riding on the Manohar
likely to take a dip from 20 seats in 2014 likely to win six seats in Chhattisgarh in Parrikar sympathy wave may win two
to 8 seats in 2019. Notably, 19 per cent 2019 as compared to just one in 2014. seats in Goa, as per the Opinion Ex-
vote share gain in Odisha helps BJP off- The BJP’s seats are expected to be down press Opinion Poll. In the 2014 Lok
set losses elsewhere. from 10 in 2014 to mere 5 in 2019. Sabha elections, the BJP had won both
Kerala (20/20): The BJP is likely North East (11/11): The BJP re- the seats.
to open its account. While Congress-led tains supremacy in the North East with Puducherry (1/1): The BJP+ is
United Democratic Front (UDF) is ex- 9 seats while the UPA only manages 1 likely to lose the lone seat it won in 2014
pected to bag 16 seats, the Left Demo- seat. The big role played by the Con- Lok Sabha Elections in Puducherry. The
cratic Front is expected to win three. gress turncoat Hementa Sarma Biswas UPA is expected to grab the seat from
The UDF had won 12 seats in 2014 has completely shifted the paradigm in the BJP+.
General Elections while the LDF had favour of BJP and Congress off lately is Andaman and Nicobar Islands
bagged 8 seats. struggling to find the grip on its previ- (1/1): The BJP is likely to retain its seat.
Telangana (17/17): The Telan- ous strong hold. Daman and Diu (1/1): The Union
gana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is likely to Haryana (10/10): BJP+- 6, Con- Territory of Daman and Diu has one
grab 10 seats, Congress – 5, BJP+ - 1, gress - 4, says Opinion Express Opinion parliamentary seat and the Bharatiya
Others – 1. In 2014, the TRS was the Poll 2019 Lok Sabha Elections survey. Janata Party is projected to retain that
leading party with 12 seats while the In 2014, the NDA had won seven seats in this year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Congress had won two. The BJP-led al- while the Congress had won one seat. Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1/1):
liance could bag only one seat. Others A faction of INLD is likely to join hand The BJP is expected to retain the seat it
had got two seats. with BJP in the elections. The last min- had won in the Union Territory in the
Assam (14/14): It seems the Citizen- ute alliance between the BJP and INLD 2014 Lok Sabha elections, this year as
ship Bill is consolidating votes for the BJP. will push the tally of NDA to its earlier well.
The survey reveals that the BJP is likely mark. Chandigarh (1/1): The Congress
to win eight seats, one more than it won Delhi (7/7): Congress party and is expected to snatch the lone seat from
in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. Congress is Aam Aadmi Party are expected to open the BJP, as per the survey.
likely to retain three seats, All India United its account this time by winning one Lakshwadeep (1/1): The survey
Democratic Front - 2, Others -1. seat each. The BJP is likely to retain re- gives the lone seat to the NCP.
Jharkhand (14/14): In 2019 Lok maining five seats. In 2014, the BJP-led NDA won 336
Sabha Elections, the Congress+JMM Jammu and Kashmir (6/6): The of the total 543 seats in Lok Sabha, with
are likely to win 8-9 seats and BJP BJP is likely to win two seats, Congress Na- the BJP alone winning 282 seats. This
5-6. The BJP had won the maximum tional Conference alliance will win 4 seats. elections are likely to reduce the BJP
12 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Uttarakhand (5/5): Upper caste led NDA tally by 40-45 seats. Thus Na-
Jharkhand. The Congress had won the votes seem to be still with the BJP in Ut- rendra Modi is likely to just touch the
remaining two. tarakhand as the NDA is likely to retain power cord in May 2019.
22 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sO p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 23
A view of the foreign press
India’s 2019 elections:
What you need to know
By Joanna Slater and Niha Masih water shortages. Modi’s ascent has also lynched in the name of “cow protec-
empowered right-wing Hindu groups. tion.” Modi eventually condemned such
When is the election? Since 2014, dozens of people have been killings.
India’s national elections will take
place in seven phases between April 11
and May 19, with results announced on
May 23. Voters will elect representa-
tives to 543 seats in Parliament, and the
party with 272 or more seats will select
the prime minister. If no one party or
alliance wins the necessary amount of
seats, parties can come together to form
a coalition government.
Just how big is this exercise?
It is very, very big. Held every five
years, the elections are the largest dem-
ocratic exercise in the world. With about
900 million eligible voters, the size of
the electorate has swelled by more than
80 million compared to 2014. In that
election, 550 million people ultimately
cast votes. While over 450 political par-
ties contested the last election, only
six are national parties that can claim
a base of supporters across different
states. The voting process will unfold
at more than a million polling stations,
each one overseen by a handful of elec-
tion officials.
What is at stake?
This election will be pivotal to the fu-
ture of India, soon to become the world’s
most populous nation. India is attempt-
ing to catch up in economic terms with
China, its neighbor to the east, a pur-
suit that requires massive investment
in infrastructure and significant policy
change. At the same time, the country is
also deciding what kind of democracy it
wants to be, having embraced a Hindu
chauvinist leader by a landslide in the
last national polls in 2014.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of
the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came
to power promising “achhe din” — good
times — and development for all. While
economic output has grown rapidly dur-
ing his tenure, employment has not kept
pace, leading to increasing numbers of
jobless youth. Meanwhile, India faces
a growing battle with air pollution and
24 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sWho are the contenders? Modi’s principal opponent is Rahul cially after corruption scandals plagued
Modi remains the favorite to win. Gandhi, who heads the Indian National the last Congress government.
A native of the state of Gujarat, Modi Congress. He is the latest member of
spent much of his life within the ranks the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to seek to What are the main issues?
of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, lead the country. (The family is not re- Until recently, it appeared that em-
a group that seeks to make India a lated to independence leader Mahatma ployment and rural distress would be
“Hindu nation.” In 2002, when he was Gandhi.) Rahul Gandhi’s great-grand- some of the main themes of the elec-
chief minister of Gujarat, riots broke father, Jawaharlal Nehru, was India’s tion. In January, a leaked official report
out that left more than 1,000 people, first prime minister. Both his grand- showed that India’s unemployment rate
mostly Muslims, dead. Modi pioneered mother, Indira Gandhi, and his father, had increased under the Modi govern-
what became known as the “Gujarat Rajiv Gandhi, also led the country and ment to a 45-year high. Farmers, mean-
model,”modernizing the state’s infra- were later assassinated. Rahul Gandhi while, have held several large marches
structure and making it a favorite des- faces an uphill battle to persuade voters in recent months to protest the difficult
tination for investment. to give the dynasty another try, espe- conditions they face, including rising
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 25input costs and high amounts of debt.
India’s Fight With Pakistan Seen
Those issues likely contributed to de-
feats for the BJP in three key state
elections late last year.
Modi is highlighting his govern- Lifting Modi’s Election Chances
ment’s achievements, including pro- Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. If his ruling coalition
grams to improve the lives of poor can hold onto Congress, he will be prime minister again. Elec-
women, a national cleanliness drive tions are in April and May.
and the introduction of a new bank-
ruptcy code. He is also seeking to turn Kenneth Rapoza
national security into a key issue in
R
the campaign after a Feb. 14 suicide ussia has the election meddlers. Brazil is jailing former beloved presidents
bombing in Indian-controlled Kash- and is now led by a “tropical Trump,” and China has a trade war. What
mir killed 40 paramilitary officers. In does quiet India have that’s worth watching? Of the big four emerging
response, Modi launched an airstrike markets, India looks boring. Once drama-free, India has now drawn attention to
on an alleged terrorist training camp itself with an Indian Air Force strike against a Pakistani terrorist camp this week.
in Pakistan, setting off the most seri- The crisis, if it lasts, is seen helping incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
ous military confrontation between who is trying to keep the Gandhis away from power. The general election begins
the two countries in decades. in April. Modi will run against Rahul Gandhi.
“I always rated Modi’s prospects in the forthcoming elections as 50:50,”
Who pays for all this? economist Swaminathan Aiyar was quoted saying in The Economic Times.” This
India’s 2019 election could be the may now boost Modi’s prospects,” he said, adding that a lot will depend on how
most expensive the world has ever Pakistan responds to this week’s airstrike inside its borders.
seen. In the last national elections in The Wisdom Tree India (EPI) exchange-traded fund remains one of the
2014, parties spent over $5 billion, biggest drags in a passive emerging market portfolio. The ETF is down 3.3.%
according to Milan Vaishnav, director this year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets are up over 11%. Over the last
of the South Asia Program at the Car- 12 months, the India ETF is down by 11%. Modi has been good for the Indian
negie Endowment for International economy and for investor sentiment. The market is up over 40% since he was
Peace. That figure is expected to grow elected in May 2014. A poll last week by the Times of India said that 83% of over
significantly this year. By comparison, 2,000 respondents said Modi coalition parties in the National Democratic Alli-
in the 2016 presidential and congres- ance (NDA) would keep the lower house of Congress, known as the Lok Sabha,
sional elections in the United States, or House of the People. The prime minister is chosen by the majority coalition
the price tag was $6.5 billion. of the lower house.
In theory, there is a cap — nearly The poll also suggested that Modi has a high approval rating, with an equal
$1 million — on how much parliamen- number of respondents saying they would want the NDA to pick Modi as prime
tary candidates can spend on their minister assuming they keep the majority of the 545 seats. They have 341. Gan-
campaign. In practice, large amounts dhi’s United Progressive Alliance has 68 seats. Gandhi needs an alliance of
of undeclared funds flow into candi- roughly 230 seats to pick him over Modi. He is considered to be the other pos-
dates’ coffers. The current govern- sibility if Team Modi loses.
ment introduced two important — On Monday, Modi got a lift from nationalists after his Air Force carried out
and controversial — changes to how surgical strikes against militia training sites in neighboring Pakistan. Although
campaigns are funded. Parties can the government did not say this, it is believed that India targeted sites affiliated
now receive funds from Indians living with the Muslim jihadi group Jaish-e-Muhammad following an attack on a Cen-
abroad and from some foreign firms tral Reserve Police Force convoy in Pulwama less than two weeks ago. Pulwama
that have Indian holding companies. is in the disputed Kashmir district on the border between the two countries.
They can also raise money from anon- This is said to be the first cross-border air strike India has carried out in near-
ymous individual or corporate donors ly 50 years. In an official statement by the Foreign Affairs Ministry on Tuesday,
through the use of “electoral bonds.” the government blamed the death of 40 reserve police officers on Pakistan-based
terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad. The U.S. and United Nations labeled JeM
What is a an international terrorist group back in 2001.
“mahagathbandhan”? Information regarding the location of training camps in Pakistan has been
A “mahagathbandhan” is a Hindi provided to Pakistan by India from time to time, but Pakistan denies their exis-
word meaning “mega-coalition” or tence, the Foreign Affairs Ministry said yesterday.
“grand alliance.” Leaders of a vari- Modi ended the year weaker than he was a year earlier. Last year, BJP party
ety of India’s opposition parties — was seen dominating the Lok Sabha again in 2019. But once December rolled
among them the Congress party, the around, some poor showings by Modi-backed candidates worried investors. It’s
Trinamool Congress, the Aam Aadmi one of the reasons why India has been an underperformer. That and slightly
Party and the Samajwadi Party — higher interest rates while other big emerging markets, like Brazil and China, are
have appeared together at events in cutting interest rates instead.
recent months, raising the prospect Monday’s show of strength against a common national foe may have given
that if they gain enough seats, they Modi a shot in the arm. Not that he needs it all that much against the United
could join forces to unseat Modi and Progressive Alliance’s main man Rahul.
the BJP.
________ (Writer is a Senior Contributor) © 2019 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP
26 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sWhy the 2019
election may
be the most
crucial in
India’s history
The BJP will try to convince the Hindu majority to vote along
sectarian lines in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
28 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sNilanjan Mukhopadhyay
Supporters of Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) wearing masks of Narendra Modi
celebrate their party’s election victory,
in Mumbai May 26, 2014 [File:Danish
Siddiqui/Reuters]
In April-May next year an estimated
900 million Indians will be heading to
the polls to elect their next parliament.
In the 70-odd years since India’s inde-
pendence, this will likely be the first
election that seriously challenges the
country’s inclusive political culture.
If the current government led by
the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Nar-
endra Modi secures another emphatic
mandate, the country will move danger-
ously close to becoming a majoritarian
state.
A decisive victory would give the
BJP hegemonic control over all state
institutions, as well as the media and
public discourse. This would further
undermine the integrity and autonomy
of different arms of the state, including
the judiciary, public watchdogs and,
more importantly, state-run education-
al institutions. Moreover, another BJP
victory would put the freedoms and se-
curity of approximately 175 million In-
dian Muslims in jeopardy.
Amid waning public support for the
government caused by economic fail-
ures, the BJP recently took a series of
steps to accentuate India’s growing re-
ligious polarisation. It appears the far-
right party is trying to secure an elec-
toral victory not by convincing Indians
that it will implement a strong social,
economic and political agenda, but by
fomenting the Hindu majority’s preju-
dices against Muslims and convincing
them to vote along religious lines.
MORE ON
NARENDRA MODI
‘Influenced by politics’:
Economists slam India for
tweaking data6 days ago
India announces general
election from April 11, results on
May 23last week
Images show madrasa
buildings standing after Indian
attack claim2 weeks ago
India’s Modi criticised for
politicising Pakistan standoff3
weeks ago
O p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 29Fuelling religious polarisation
In 2014, Modi was voted into office for
two reasons. First, anti-incumbent sentiment
against the Congress-led coalition government
was rampant, mainly as a result of corruption
accusations and a downward drift in gover-
nance. Second, Modi managed to raise Indians’
hopes about their country’s future by making
several ambitious promises.
Despite his controversial past - he was ac-
cused of initiating and condoning the 2002 Gu-
jarat riots that resulted in the death of almost
1,000 people, many of them Muslims - Modi
succeeded in presenting himself as a messiah
of development throughout the election cam-
paign.
Sabarimala temple: A rallying point for the
Hindu far right?
Once in power, however, he moved away
from the reformist image he created for him-
self.
He did follow through some of his campaign
promises, such as starting pro-poor economic
schemes and innovative programmes but mostly
used sectarian, Hindu-nationalist dog whistles to
consolidate his power. As a result, Muslims be-
came open targets for discrimination and abuse.
The Modi government’s tacit promotion of
sectarian politics resulted in disquiet in what is
identified as “Middle India” - a burgeoning de-
mographic block of urban middle-classes who are
socially liberal and economically conservative.
They backed Modi in the 2014 election,
mostly because they believed he had left divisive
politics behind and was committed to economic
policies that would help everyone prosper. They
expected him to act as a neo-Thatcherite re-
former and save the struggling Indian economy.
However, only a couple of months into his reign,
Middle India realised that he is no unifying re-
former.
Over the past four years, the BJP govern-
ment has repeatedly turned a blind eye on at-
tacks by fringe groups on religious minorities.
According to data from IndiaSpend, which
tracks news about violence in English-language
media, reports of religious-based hate-crimes -
mainly targeting Muslims - have spiked signifi-
cantly since 2014.
Modi himself did little more than deliver
periodical tepid words of caution in the face of
growing religious polarisation. He likely believes
that firing up Hindu-nationalist sentiments
would give him an electoral advantage. In the
end, he was right. Sectarian politics did partially
cost the BJP the support of Middle India but
simultaneously made it more popular among
wider Hindu masses across the country (As seen
in the party’s landslide victory in India’s most
populous state, Uttar Pradesh, in March 2017).
However, such divisive politics stopped
yielding sufficient political dividends for the
BJP from the autumn of 2017 and Modi’s per-
sonal popularity started to decline.
30 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sO p i n i on E x p r e s s May 2019 31
BJP’s loss of electoral mo- these efforts had limited success due to In-
mentum dia’s syncretism and the caste-based divi-
Modi’s loss of popularity was mainly sions within Hindu society.
caused by two controversial economic de- Hindu nationalists emerged as a major
cisions: the demonetisation of high-value political force only in the late 1980s, on the
currency notes in November 2016 and the back of the demands for a 16th-century
rollout of a Goods and Service Tax in July mosque in Ayodhya to be replaced with a
2017. These decisions hurt small and me- Ram (an avatar of Vishnu, a major Hindu
dium-sized businesses and held the Indian god) temple.
economy back. Both decisions were criti- The demolition of the mosque in De-
cised harshly by prominent economists cember 1992 led to several months of
and were not popular among ordinary citi- inter-communal rioting in which Hindus
zens. and Muslims attacked one another. A de-
These economic moves diminished the cade later, the issue led to the Gujarat ri-
government and the PM’s political clout ots, which helped Modi transition from a
significantly, and are likely to negatively satrap to a popular political leader. Anti-
impact the BJP’s prospects in the 2019 Muslim riots in the Uttar Pradesh town of
general election. Muzaffarnagar in 2013, which were fanned
The start of the BJP’s electoral slide be- by members and sympathisers of the BJP,
came clear last December when the party also contributed to Modi’s 2014 electoral
limped to a majority in Modi’s home state, victory.
Gujarat. The party’s electoral decline con- Such past efforts were indeed the main
tinued into 2018: it won only three of the force behind the BJP and Modi’s rise to
13 parliamentary by-polls, and 5 of the 22 power, yet the governing party knows that
state legislature elections. it needs to do more to overcome the in-
Beside demonetisation and the Goods cumbent’s political handicap and is now
and Service Tax, rising unemployment and actively working towards constructing a
spiralling distress in the farming indus- wider Hindu-nationalist voter block.
try are also expected to cause Modi some Thanks to the BJP’s efforts, the Ayod-
electoral headaches in 2019. Opinion polls hya temple dispute is once again roaring
consistently demonstrate that the BJP’s and Hindu nationalists are agitating for
popularity across India is on the decline. the demolition of other historical mosques
The BJP, well aware that it is facing strong allegedly built over temples, including one
anti-incumbent sentiments, is looking to in Modi’s political constituency, Varanasi.
find ways to widen its support base before There are fears that these issues may be
the general election. raked up further before the elections.
In the past, the party has tried to In recent weeks, Uttar Pradesh Chief
achieve this by stirring up nationalist sen- Minister Yogi Adityanath renamed one
timents and it is likely that it will continue major city and another district, alleg-
to do so in the near future. For example, in ing that previous names were “Islamic
2016, Modi used the Indian military’s so- blemishes”. Coming on the back of other
called “surgical strikes” against “terrorist renaming controversies, this raised fears
units” in troubled Jammu and Kashmir for that a Hindu-nationalist “renaming spree”
ultra-nationalist propaganda. is about to begin.
Just months after the strikes, he rode Coupled with ongoing campaigns
the wave of jingoistic fervour he created against eating beef and so-called “Love
through these propaganda efforts and Jihad” and conspiracy theories about
swept the elections in Uttar Pradesh. Ear- Muslims illegally entering India from Ban-
lier this year, Defence Minister Nirmala gladesh and altering the demographic bal-
Sitharaman announced that the anniver- ance of the country, the government’s cur-
sary of the operation would be celebrated rent attempts to fuel Hindu nationalist and
every year as “National Strike Day” - fur- anti-Muslim sentiments aim at shifting the
ther demonstrating that the BJP plans to voters’ focus away from daily grievances.
continue using past military operations The BJP’s ultimate goal is to make the
to stoke nationalist sentiment and garner 80 percent of Indians who are Hindus vote
support for the government. according to their religious identity, driven
by animosity towards minorities, mainly
Convincing Hindus to ‘vote Muslims. If the BJP succeeds, this would
Hindu’ turn India’s political character on its head.
The BJP’s ideological siblings have
been campaigning for a nation-wide Hin- Courtesy: Al Jazeera
du resurrection since the 1920s - the era in The views expressed in this article are
which the party’s core Hindutva ideology the author’s own and do not necessarily
was first born. But, for a very long time, reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
32 May 2019 O p i n i on E x p r e s sYou can also read
