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NO. 36 JULY 2020 Introduction Corona Crisis and Political Confrontation in Brazil The President, the People, and Democracy under Pressure Claudia Zilla During his election campaign, Jair Bolsonaro promised economic recovery, the fight against corruption, and an iron hand against violent crime – today, these tasks rep- resent the weak spots of the President: Brazil has become an epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though Bolsonaro downplays the situation and opposes containment measures, the virus and the chaotic crisis management are bringing about serious negative health, social, and economic consequences for the citizens. Investigations, in- cluding those on corruption, and revelations about the Justice Minister who resigned are targeting the President and his family. While the homicide rate is on the rise again in 2020, Bolsonaro pleaded in a cabinet meeting for armed resistance from the population against the health protection policies in the federal states. Threatened by impeachment, the President is struggling for his political survival, challenging the rule of law and democratic principles. In Latin America, the Covid-19 pandemic marked by major deficiencies, and the began with a case of infection registered in chaotic corona crisis management have Brazil on 26 February. The first officially contributed to the massive spread of the known death in Brazil (the second in the pandemic. region) occurred on 17 March. With a popu- The pandemic broke out in the context lation of around 210 million people, the of a political crisis and has made it more country currently ranks second in the world visible. In addition to the strong political (after the US) in terms of total number of polarisation for and against the President both infections and deaths. The capitals and his confrontation with the other of six federal states are severely affected: branches of government, there is now a São Paulo (São Paulo), Rio de Janeiro (Rio dispute over the most appropriate corona de Janeiro), Fortaleza (Ceará), Belém (Pará), crisis management within the cabinet, Manaus (Amazonas), and Recife (Pernam- and above all between the President and buco), where state hospitals are over- the state governors. crowded. Poverty, precarious working and housing conditions, a health system
The Health Care System care units, more than half of which are in
private facilities.
After the re-democratisation of Brazil, the According to the World Health Organi-
entitlement to health as a social right and zation (WHO) of the United Nations (UN),
task of the state as well as universal access Brazil allocated 10.3 per cent of total gov-
to health care were anchored in the Con- ernment spending for health care in 2017
stitution of 1988. However, the latter is de (DEU: 19.9 per cent). A 2019 survey by the
facto not given due to the fragmentation of Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística
the health care system and the weakness (IBGE) shows that total per capita health
of the state health sector. In surveys, Brazil- spending in 2017 was around $1,000 (pur-
ians traditionally state “health” as the most chasing power parity, PPP). Although this
urgent problem. The country is also fre- amount is considerable by Latin American
quently hit by epidemics; it currently regis- standards, it remains well below $2,900
ters the highest number (2.2 million) of (PPP), the average of all member countries
dengue fever infections in the region. of the Organisation for Economic Co-opera-
The health care system is divided into tion and Development (OECD). In the period
three parts. The state health system (Sis- 2010–2017, the total health expenditure
tema Único de Saúde, SUS) is financed by in Brazil fluctuated between 7.8 and 9.3 per
taxes and social security contributions. A cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Pri-
network of territorially and hierarchically vate actors assumed more than half of the
organised public institutions provides own costs; public health expenditure was within
services but also some that are purchased the low range of 3.4 to 4 per cent of GDP
from the private sector. Around three quar- (Germany: 9.5 per cent). In the context of
ters of the population benefit from it. Sec- austerity measures adopted under the gov-
ondly, a private sector provides health care ernment of Michel Temer (2016–2018),
to the remaining quarter of the population, public health care expenditure has been
which has greater purchasing power. It frozen for 20 years by constitutional
comprises both a direct payment system amendment (EC95/2016), thus only adjust-
(ad hoc payments for the actual use of ments for inflation are allowed. In addition,
single services) and a supplementary system after the first year of Bolsonaro’s presidency
(Sistema de Atenção Médica Suplementar, (January 2019–January 2020), the health
SAMS), financed by family and corporate budget has fallen by a further 4.3 per cent.
contributions through individual and cor-
porate health insurance schemes. Privately
insured individuals occasionally turn to Interpretation(s) of the
state hospitals (such as university hospitals) Corona Crisis
for complex or costly treatment. A third
pillar of the health care system is the mili- President Bolsonaro does not regard the
tary sector, whose facilities cater to both crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic
active and retired members of the armed as a public health or safety crisis, but (only)
forces and their families. as a threat that could trigger an economic
In contrast to the private sector, the recession. For him, however, this recession
public health sector exhibits major deficits would not be on account of the pandemic
in financing and equipment. Because capac- itself, but of the political management
ities are limited, patients often must face strategy to contain it, which he utterly
long waiting times and travel long distances rejects. This strategy is advocated by some
for medical appointments or treatments, members of his cabinet and many of the
even in acute cases. For every 10,000 people governors of the 26 federal states as well
in Brazil, there are only 22 beds available as by large segments of the population.
in hospitals (both public and private) (Ger- As a right-wing populist with an anti-
many: 83 beds), and only 0.8 in intensive establishment stance – and similar to US
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
2President Donald Trump – Bolsonaro des- are both threatening the Christian Western
pises the academic elite, expertise, and civilisation – according to him. In his opin-
specialised international organisations such ion, today globalism has replaced socialism
as WHO. He relativises the evidence-based as a preliminary stage on the way to com-
findings on which these actors rely. He in- munism. This communism-globalism is capi-
stead portrays himself to be no less legiti- talising on the pandemic to undermine lib-
mate than a specialist in human medicine eral democracy and the market economy –
or biology to declare his interpretation of according to Araújo’s terminology – and
Covid-19 (just a gripezinha: “minor cold”) in to enslave humans. The aim is to establish a
addition to strongly recommending treat- world order without nation states and with-
ment using certain medications (such as the out freedom. The elevation of WHO as a cen-
anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine) or tralising international organisation thus
putting forward the racist thesis that the constitutes a first step towards world-wide
Brazilian people are genetically superior communist solidarity.
and not prone to Covid-19. He also accuses Araújo strongly criticises political cor-
the media of scaremongering. rectness, which he assesses as an instru-
The reasons for Bolsonaro’s rejection of ment of communism to control language,
social quarantine are less to be found in a and ultimately to monitor thought and kill
micro-sociological focus on specific groups the human spirit. In addition, the more
of the population: namely all those in powerful instrument of “sanitary correct-
Brazil who depend on a daily wage from an ness” emerges, since the coronavirus has
informal job to buy food for the next day, created opportunities to oppress people.
or those who live in large families of three The Covid-19 pandemic is thus in line
or four generations in a confined space. with other scaremongering tactics, some
Meanwhile, he even accepts the lethality of of which the Foreign Minister labels with
Covid-19 in Brazil on the grounds that in neologisms: climatic alarmism, gender
the end we will all die. Although his middle ideology, immigrationism, racialism, anti-
name is Mesias, he cannot perform miracles nationalism, and scientificism. Against this
(to slow down the pandemic). His argument background, he concludes, it is necessary to
is rather purely macroeconomic, true to the fight for the health of the body and soul –
motto “the Brazilian economy first!” but also against the parasite of the parasite,
Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo’s inter- that is, against the coronavirus and the
pretation of the corona crisis is somewhat communavirus.
more complex and conspiratorial. In his In line with this – complemented by an
blog “Metapolítica 17. Against Globalism”, anti-Chinese dimension – is the interpreta-
in an article of 22 April entitled “Chegou tion of the corona crisis by Abraham Wein-
o Comunavírus” (The communavirus has traub, Education Minister until 18 June,
come), he provides his interpretation of the who regards the pandemic as an infallible
current situation. For this, he uses a series Chinese plan to dominate the world. Bolso-
of quotations from the book Virus, which naro’s son Eduardo, a national deputy for
was digitally published in March 2020 by the federal state of São Paulo who is active
the Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek. in debating foreign policy issues, also con-
Araújo believes this book presents a totali- siders the coronavirus to be an Asian virus
tarian programme that serves as evidence of with a single culprit: the Communist Party
the communist intention to instrumentalise of China. Such interpretations have led to
the coronavirus ideologically. diplomatic tensions with China – Brazil’s
Araújo is an admirer of Trump and is main trading partner – but also caused
striving for better and closer relations with other actors such as the President of the
the US. Together with the US, Brazil should Chamber of Deputies to publicly apologise
fight against the ideology of cultural Marx- for these accusations.
ism and the globalism linked to it, as they
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
3Chaotic Corona Management measures were introduced in the federal
penal institutions.
In Brazil there is no national approach to Since the end of January, executives on
corona crisis management; there is a lack the state and municipal levels have been
of central control by the government in taking various and increasingly restrictive
Brasilia, and horizontal coordination be- measures to limit public life. Thus, they
tween federal states is weak. The cabinet have departed from the President’s instruc-
is split along the corona cleavage. The tions and provoked him to start an aggres-
President boycotts the restrictive health sive campaign against their corona crisis
protection and pandemic containment management.
measures taken against his will by other In a cabinet meeting on 22 April – a
authorities. For this reason, most state revealing recording of which was made pub-
governors – many of them former Bolso- lic due to a decision by a federal judge –
naro supporters – are distancing them- Bolsonaro fervently argued that he wanted
selves from him. In addition, the President to arm the entire populace to defend them-
has repeatedly clashed with the judiciary selves against dictatorship (meant of the
and the legislature, whose checks-and-balances governors). In this male-dominated round
function comes into play in the corona (there are only two women in the 22-mem-
crisis. ber Cabinet of Ministers), the Minister
Already in early February, the then- for Women, Families, and Human Rights,
Minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta Damares Alves, condemned the corona
(a physician), declared a public health emer- crisis management approach of the gover-
gency. He openly addressed the risk that, nors and mayors. The evangelical pastor,
due to the pandemic, the health care sys- who is a passionate opponent of feminism
tem could collapse soon, and he promoted as well as the legalisation of abortion,
the rapid expansion of capacities. Three promised that she would put behind bars
issues cost him his office in mid-April: his those who are responsible for social quar-
plea for intensive communication to edu- antine as well as for its enforcement, which
cate the population on Covid-19 and for violates human rights. For his part, Wein-
spatial distancing; his reservations about traub, who is now moving to the World
the widespread use of hydroxychloroquine Bank, declared that he was fighting for free-
for the treatment of Covid-19, as recom- dom alongside the people. He confessed
mended by the President; and last but not that he wanted to get rid of “the shit that
least, the fact that he was more popular Brasilia is”, “a cancer of corruption, of privi-
among the populace than Bolsonaro him- leges”. He wanted the arrest of all these
self. As his successor, he appointed Nelson “tramps” of the capital, “starting with the
Teich (also a physician), who resigned a Supreme Court”.
month later while concealing his reasons Bolsonaro is also facing headwinds from
for doing so. Teich had appointed an army the judiciary: In March, a federal judge
general, Eduardo Pazuello, as Executive granted a request from the public prosecu-
Secretary, and thus number two in the tor’s office and banned Bolsonaro from
ministerial hierarchy; the military official running a campaign for the normalisation
now heads the department ad interim. of public life in Brazil. This prevented the
From March onwards, the Ministry of official release of the video advertisement
Justice and Public Security (until mid-May “Brasil não pode parar” (Brazil cannot stop).
under the direction of Sérgio Moro) ordered In April, the Supreme Court unanimously
the partial and temporary closure of the ruled in favour of the states and munici-
borders, a measure that was successively palities, confirming their constitutional
extended in terms of both geographic area authority to impose health protection meas-
and duration. Furthermore, and among ures. Previously, the President had tried to
other directives, isolation and protection stop the closure of airports and interstate
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
4roads by decree. In the same month, the tries): (1) the decline in the economic activ-
federal judiciary authorised the city of São ity of the main trading partners, first and
Paulo to suspend its debt repayment to the foremost China, and thus the decline in
federal government for six months in order exports; (2) the fall in the price of commod-
to be able to use the released resources to ities, the main export product; (3) the in-
fight the pandemic. In June, at the request terruption of global value chains for the
of opposition parties, a judge on the Su- industrial sector, the largest in the region;
preme Court issued a temporary injunction (4) the rising risk aversion and tighter inter-
against Bolsonaro’s decision to no longer national financial conditions; (5) the depre-
make the (extremely high) total number of ciation of the national currency, that is, the
Covid-19 infections public, but only daily real against the dollar. For 2020, Brazil is
totals. expected to experience negative economic
In the meantime, the Brazilian Parlia- growth of 5.2 per cent.
ment had already announced its intention The government and Parliament have
to monitor and publish the total number of adopted a series of economic aid measures.
cases of the virus. In general, the President According to CEPAL calculations, these
of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (who tested measures together represent only 4.6 per
positive for Covid-19 in March), and the cent of Brazil’s GDP. The remedies are
President of the Chamber of Deputies, aimed at strengthening the health sector,
Rodrigo Maia, have publicly expressed their supporting precarious households, helping
sympathies. For example, on 9 May they financially weak workers in the formal and
arranged three days of national mourning informal sectors, and protecting enterprises
to commemorate the first 10,000 corona (especially small and medium-sized ones).
deaths in Brazil. They acknowledge the The aid consists, among other things, of
health challenges posed by the pandemic – increased, expanded, and new financial
and also the economic side-effects: Congress transfers, the distribution of food and medi-
declared a state of disaster on 20 March cines, and the provision of free services.
(PDL 88/20), only two days after Bolsonaro However, various circumstances have hin-
had made the motion (Mensagem No. 93). dered this assistance from reaching the
This allows for extra expenditures beyond target populations: poverty; a significant
the approved state budget, provided that proportion of the population being outside
they are related to the Covid-19 pandemic the banking system (30 per cent of adults);
and occur by the end of the year. a large informal sector (around 41 per cent
of the labour market and 17 per cent of
GDP); and widespread corruption.
Economic Impact Even before the outbreak of the pandemic,
Brazil’s economic situation was anything
This crisis event and crisis management are but rosy. Since 2017, annual economic
altering demand and supply on the national growth has been between 1.3 and 1.1 per
and international levels. Both the pandemic cent. Due to a historic budget deficit, the
itself and the political handling of it have Brazilian government’s public debt in 2019
negative economic consequences, for exam- amounted to 75.8 per cent of GDP. The
ple those caused by illness or self-isolation political instability and damage to Brazil’s
as well as by the imposed quarantine or international image that Bolsonaro has in-
border closures. All this prevents people flicted – and continues to inflict – on the
from participating in the labour and con- brand Brasil are discouraging foreign invest-
sumer market. According to the assessment ment.
of the UN Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), other
interrelated factors have a negative impact
on Brazil (and many Latin American coun-
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
5The Perception of the Situation hand, a significant mobilisation took place
in Society on 19 April, Armed Forces Day in Brazil,
when Covid-19 infections skyrocketed. The
Meanwhile, the population’s concern about President’s supporters demonstrated in
the situation is growing. Although the several cities across the country, calling for
first cases of infection had been registered the closure of the Parliament and the Su-
among the higher social classes that travel preme Court and for the introduction of a
internationally, the virus is now seeping military dictatorship with Bolsonaro at its
down through the social pyramid and head. He joined the mobilisation in Brasilia
spreading rapidly across the bottom. The and improvised an ambiguous populist
pandemic and many crisis management speech, which was broadcast live via social
measures are distributed unequally along media, in front of the Armed Forces Head-
structural asymmetries and are exacerbat- quarters. It was once again military figures,
ing them. Extremely vulnerable to the such as Defence Minister General Fernando
spread of the pandemic are the densely Azevedo, who subsequently reaffirmed the
populated slums (favelas), where sanitary commitment of the armed forces to democ-
conditions are poor and organised crime racy and the full application of the Consti-
frequently dictates the management of tution. Some 3,000 active and retired mem-
the corona crisis. Inmates are exposed to a bers of the armed forces occupy civilian
similar risk, since prisons – where poor positions in present-day Brazil.
and black citizens are overrepresented, and On the other hand, protests against
human right violations occur on a daily Bolsonaro have been raging since March:
basis – are operating at 168 per cent of Domestic panelaços – loud pot banging
their capacity. from windows, balconies, and terraces –
In a survey conducted by Datafolha in express dissatisfaction with his corona crisis
May, 45 per cent of those surveyed said they management, mostly in middle-class neigh-
were very afraid of becoming infected with bourhoods. People have also taken to the
Covid-19. The map of fear corresponds to streets against the demands for a military
the geography of social inequality in Brazil: dictatorship and in defence of democracy.
More women (51 per cent) than men (38 per But no large crowds have taken part in the
cent) are very afraid; the poor (50 per cent) pro and contra demonstrations – possibly
more than the rich (35 per cent); those liv- due to the pandemic – and the opposing
ing in the poorer north-east (51 per cent) groups seem to be roughly in balance: In an
more than those from the richer south (35 April Datafolha survey, 45 per cent of those
per cent). When asked for their assessments interviewed were in favour of Congress
of Bolsonaro’s statements on the pandemic, initiating an impeachment process against
a large majority (89 per cent) responded the President, 48 per cent were against it.
that the use of hydroxychloroquine as a
treatment option should be the decision of
health professionals and not policymakers. The Spectre of Impeachment
Furthermore, the majority disagreed that
people should be armed in order not to be The debate about possible impeachment
enslaved (71 per cent). proceedings against Bolsonaro has inten-
Also in May, Datafolha registered the sified since Sérgio Moro, head of the Minis-
worst approval ratings for Bolsonaro since try for Justice and Public Security, left the
he took office: 43 per cent rated his govern- government on 24 April. In his resignation
ance as poor, 22 per cent as mediocre, and speech, he accused the President of attempt-
33 per cent as good. ing to interfere in the personnel policy of
The strong political polarisation around the federal police in order to slow the in-
the figure of Bolsonaro shapes society and vestigations into his own family. Bolsonaro
is also evident in the streets. On the one reacted by making a public appearance,
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
6throughout which he spent a good 45 The Corona Crisis As a
minutes on dismissing Moro’s accusations Magnifying Glass
and harshly criticising him. During this
time, almost the entire cabinet was lined The corona crisis is currently neither spread-
up behind him. ing authoritarianism in Latin America (the
The enmity between the two men be- number of authoritarian regimes in the
comes particularly explosive in light of region has continued to remain stable) nor
the fact that Moro, as a federal judge, had currently deepening it in the case of Brazil,
strongly promoted the criminal proceedings as there is no evidence of increasingly authori-
in Operação Lava Jato. These trials influ- tarian governance in connection with the
enced the public’s mood to move in favour pandemic (for a different position on this,
of Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment. They see SWP Comments 35/2020). Bolsonaro’s
also provided the basis for the conviction authoritarian and right-wing populist
of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his banish- views, arguments, and actions are not a
ment from the list of candidates in the recent phenomenon but have been well-
2018 presidential elections. known since his election campaign – and
The federal judiciary took Moro’s state- they continue to resonate deeply among
ments as a reason to investigate Bolsonaro. parts of society. Also, the outbreak of
In this context, in May it published the the pandemic has not correlated with an
video of the cabinet meeting that had taken increase in repressive measures by the
place two days before Moro’s resignation. It national government. This is because the
shows a very irritated Bolsonaro, who, with President relativises the health hazards
crude language and a raised voice, promises posed by Covid-19, cultivates a purely
that he will not simply allow his family and macroeconomic interpretation of the corona
friends to be “harmed” just because he can- crisis, and has therefore neither declared
not replace someone in the security sector; a state of emergency nor imposed curfews.
if he were not able to, he would just replace Instead, he boycotts the corona restrictions
his or her boss, or even the minister. Among that are introduced by governors and
others, Bolsonaro’s son Carlos, a member recommended by other institutions.
of Rio de Janeiro’s City Council, is currently The corona crisis is embedded in a con-
under investigation. He allegedly led a frontational political context that preceded
criminal network to disseminate fake news it. However, cracks in Bolsonaro’s camp and
in the 2018 presidential election campaign, institutional conflicts are now becoming
which could provide the judiciary with the more palpable in the crisis. The pandemic
justification to annul the elections. Bolso- is revealing the limits of certain political
naro’s personnel policy, with which he is alliances, for example, as it is raising the
trying to influence investigations, as well as costs for governors to continue their alli-
his corona policy are the main arguments ances with Bolsonaro (whose poll ratings
currently being used by those who are advo- are falling) or follow the isolationist and
cating impeachment. This is the case of the anti-Chinese foreign policy approach of
impeachment motion filed by the Workers’ Foreign Minister Araújo. The corona crisis
Party (PT) in March – the 35th against Bol- thus increases the pressure on them to dis-
sonaro. However, an impeachment motion tance themselves from the executive branch
only has a chance of success if the President in Brasilia. Such a dissociation is institu-
of the Chamber of Deputies and then a tionally possible, or being made possible.
special committee consider it before accept- This includes the intensified foreign policy
ing, thereby initiating the impeachment activity of the state governments, which
process. had already begun in 2019 with governors
travelling to China and the establishment
of state agencies for foreign trade and loca-
tion marketing in Asia. Now the governors
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
7are seeking to exchange experiences other (as in the case of Rousseff). Neverthe-
with – and get aid from – China. less, social pressure commonly turns into
However, the vertical and horizontal a tailwind for Congress, or it acts in its slip-
confrontations (not only corona-induced) stream. But old and new enemies of Bolso-
are evidence of the diffusion of power naro do not trust each other and are not
through federalism and the separation of building a united opposition today. Last but
powers – whether the motives of the actors not least, there is a lack of experience –
involved are republican or opportunistic, or perhaps instead a lack of imagination –
oriented towards the common good or par- in envisaging an impeachment process in
ticularistic. the midst of a corona crisis.
© Stiftung Wissenschaft The President, who left the Social Liberal
und Politik, 2020 Party (PSL) at the end of last year to found
All rights reserved the (still insignificant) Alliance for Brazil, is
losing political support, repeatedly encoun-
This Comment reflects
tering resistance from the legislature and
the author’s views.
judiciary, and falling into the looming dark
The online version of shadow of a dramatic economic situation,
this publication contains growing violent crime, and allegations of
functioning links to other corruption. The spectre of impeachment
SWP texts and other relevant
even made him break another election cam-
sources.
paign promise, namely not to seek parlia-
SWP Comments are subject mentary majorities by means of co-opta-
to internal peer review, fact- tion. Now he hopes to gain political support
checking and copy-editing. of the Centrão, a heterogeneous group of
For further information on “pragmatic” parties that take the best offer,
our quality control pro-
by handing over positions with access to
cedures, please visit the SWP
website: https://www.swp- financial resources.
berlin.org/en/about-swp/ Nevertheless, a successful impeachment
quality-management-for- procedure seems unlikely at present for
swp-publications/ various reasons. The constitutionally re-
quired two-thirds majority in both cham-
SWP
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
bers of Congress represents a very high
Politik hurdle in view of the strong party fragmen-
German Institute for tation (with 30 parties in Parliament). The
International and largest opposition party, the PT, has only
Security Affairs about 10 per cent of the seats in Parlia-
ment; moreover, it would potentially fare
Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4
10719 Berlin better in elections following a (chaotic)
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Bolsonaro government than if, after a suc-
Fax +49 30 880 07-100 cessful impeachment, former general and
www.swp-berlin.org current Vice President Hamilton Mourão
swp@swp-berlin.org
were to complete Bolsonaro’s term of office.
ISSN 1861-1761
In addition, the massive level of public
doi: 10.18449/2020C36 pressure for encouraging impeachment
is lacking as of now, although the public
(English version of demand for it, the legal justification for its
SWP-Aktuell 53/2020) commencement, and the political motiva-
tion of the members of Congress for its im-
plementation are often at odds with each
Dr Claudia Zilla is Senior Fellow in The Americas Division at SWP.
SWP Comment 36
July 2020
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