Core Political Data Ipsos Poll - July 1, 2021

Ipsos Poll

 Core Political Data July 1, 2021

 1 ‒ © Ipsos

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Ipsos Poll

 Core Political Data
 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted June 30-July 1, 2021. A sample of 1,004 Americans ages 18+ were
 interviewed online for this survey.

 This included 437 Democrats, 372 Republicans, and 115 independents

 The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus
 or minus the following percentage points:

 3.5 for All Adults, 5.3 for Democrats, 5.8 for Republicans, and 10.4 for independents

 The data from this survey was weighted to the U.S. current population data using Gender, Age, Education, Ethnicity, and Region

 ❖ Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls
 ❖ All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and
 measurement error
 ❖ Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent
 ❖ Where figures do not sum to 100, this is because of rounding
 2 ‒ © Ipsos

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix

All Adult Americans

 Most Important Problem Facing America
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

 Economy, unemployment, and jobs 22%
 Immigration 10%
 Crime or corruption 9%
 Health care system 8%
 Inequality and discrimination 8%

 Environment and climate 7%

 Public health, disease, and illness 7%

 Morality 7%

 Terrorism and extremism 3%

 Education 3%

 War and foreign conflicts 1%

 Energy issues 1%

 Other 9%

 Don't know 4%
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* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were
combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”

All Adult Americans

 Most Important Problem Facing America
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
80%
 Economy, generally + Unemployment/jobs (asked separately prior to Feb 2021)

70% Economy, unemployment, and jobs Immigration Crime or Corruption Health care system

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

 0%
 1
 5
 9
 13
 17
 21
 25
 29
 33
 37
 41
 45
 49
 53
 57
 61
 65
 69
 73
 77
 81
 85
 89
 93
 97
 101
 105
 109
 113
 117
 121
 125
 129
 133
 137
 141
 145
 149
 153
 157
 161
 165
 169
 173
 177
 181
 185
 189
 193
 197
 201
 205
 209
 213
 217
 221
 225
 229
 233
 237
 241
 245
 249
 253
 257
 261
 265
 269
 273
 277
 281
 285
 289
 293
 297
 301
 305
 309
 313
 317
 321
 325
 329
 333
 337
 341
 345
 349
 353
 357
 361
 365
 369
 373
 377
 381
 385
 389
 393
 397
 401
 405
 409
 413
 417
 421
 425
 429
 433
 437
 441
 445
 449
 453
 457
 461
 465
 469
 473
 477
 481
 485
 489
 493
 497
 501
 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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*Prior to February 2021, “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were asked separately, results on chart display the sum of both issues through that date. Have since been combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”. Other changes include “system” being added to “healthcare”,
and “Inequality and discrimination” and "Public health, disease, and illness” were added as new issues.

By Party ID

 Most Important Problem Facing America
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

 Democrats Republicans Independents
 Economy, unemployment, and jobs 21% 27% 18%
 War and foreign conflicts 2% 0% 2%
 Immigration 3% 18% 11%
 Terrorism and extremism 3% 3% 7%
 Healthcare system 9% 4% 13%
 Public health, disease, and illness 9% 5% 6%
 Energy issues 1% 1% 1%
 Morality 5% 9% 9%
 Education 3% 2% 4%
 Crime or corruption 10% 9% 7%
 Environment and climate 12% 3% 6%
 Inequality and discrimination 13% 2% 5%
 Other 8% 11% 9%
 Don’t know 2% 5% 2%

 5 ‒ © Ipsos

* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were
combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”

All Adult Americans

Joe Biden’s Weekly Approval
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously
president-elect)?

 Total Approve
 60% 59%
 58% 57% 57% 56% 57% 58%
 56% 56%
 55% 55% 53% 54% 54% 54% 55% 55% 56% 56% 55%
 53% 53% 53% 54%
 52% 54% 52% 53% 51%

 41% 41%
 44% 42%
 40%
 42%
 40%
 42%
 38% 37% 37% 37% 39% 37% 38% 39% 38% 38% 38% 39%
 36% 37% 35% 35%
 35% 35% 34% 35%
 31% 32%

 Total Disapprove

 Nov 13-17 Nov 30- Dec 2-8 Dec 11-14 Dec 18-22 Jan 4-5 Jan 8-12 Jan 20-21 Feb 2-3 Feb 9-10 Feb 17-18 Feb 24-25 Mar 3-4 Mar 10-11 Mar 17-18 Mar 24-25 Mar 31- Apr 7-8 Apr 14-15 Apr 21-22 Apr 27-28 May 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-20 May 26-27 June 2-3 June 9-10 June 16-17 June 23-24 June 30-
 Dec 1 Apr 1 July 1
 2020 2021

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By Party ID

Partisan Biden Approval
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously
president-elect)?

 94% 92% 92% 91% 92%
 91% 92% 90%
 88% 89% 89% 88%
 91% 90%
 87%
 90% 92%
 92%
 88%
 92% 91%
 89% 91% 90% 88% 90%
 86%
 88% 89%
 85%

 58% 58% 57% 56% 59%
 56% 56% 55% 55% 54% 55%
 53% 52%
 47%
 50%
 46% 47% 46% 48% 48% 48% 50% 49% 48% 49% 50%
 43% 44% 45%

 31%
 34%
 24% 23%
 21% 23% 19% 20% 20% 23% 21% 20% 19% 22% 20%
 23% 21% 22% 21% 18%
 18% 20% 17% 19% 18% 20% 20%
 16%
 15% 15% 16%

 Nov 13- Nov 30- Dec 2-8 Dec 11- Dec 18- Jan 4-5 Jan 8-12 Jan 20-21 Feb 2-3 Feb 9-10 Feb 17-18Feb 24-25 Mar 3-4 Mar 10- Mar 17- Mar 24- Mar 31- Apr 7-8 Apr 14-15Apr 21-22Apr 27-28 May 4-5 May 11- May 19- May 26- June 2-3 June 9-10 June 16- June 23- June 30-
 17 Dec 1 14 22 11 18 25 Apr 1 12 20 27 17 24 July 1
 2020 2021

 Democrats Republicans Independents

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Appendix

 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
 The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our
 sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
 of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean ( )ത is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the
 likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian1 statistics combines both the prior distribution
 and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.

 The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
 distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
 
 distribution is also a beta distribution (π( )~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
 
 Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible
 
 values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π ( ). Since we want only one measure of
 
 precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for
 any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
 1
 distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ ∓
 
 For this poll, the Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

 SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS

 2,000 2.5
 500 5.0
 100 11.2
 8 ‒ © Ipsos
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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