Autofacts New Mobility and Supply Chain Impacts - Update of Research Results
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
www.autofacts.com
Autofacts®
New Mobility and Supply Chain Impacts
- Update of Research Results -
TechPart
Heidelberg, 13. September
2018The Availability of Autonomous Technology will Trigger the Transformation of Mobility
Starting with limited capabilities, autonomous vehicle technology is expected to have a significant impact on personal
mobility and society, creating new markets for individual mobility types and inducing more mobility demand
Person kilometers per Year– Consolidated Scenario Person kilometers per Year– Consolidated Scenario
WE, NA, China Germany
20 Shared 1 Shared
Trillions
Trillions
autonomous autonomous
18 0,9
16 0,8
Personally Personally
14 0,7
owned owned
autonomous autonomous
12 0,6
10 0,5
Shared driver- Shared driver-
8 driven 0,4 driven
6 0,3
4 Personally 0,2 Personally
owned driver- owned driver-
2 driven 0,1 driven
0 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 2New Mobility Types will Create New Ways of Using Vehicles for Individual Mobility
Autonomous vehicles will be used much more intensely than conventional cars, reducing the duration of their lifecycle and
creating higher replacement demand in spite of shrinking overall vehicle fleet
Lifecycle Mileage Annual Mileage Usage Years
Self-driven
Privately Owned 229.500 13.230 17,3
Shared 227.500 58.000 3,9
Autonomous
Privately Owned 327.500 42.000 7,8
Shared 342.000 93.000 3,7
Forecast for 2030 – WE Normal Scenario
PwC Autofacts ® 3New Mobility Types will Require a smaller Car Parc due to Higher Annual Mileage per Vehicle
While personally-owned, driver-driven vehicles will be retired only slowly, fleets for new mobility types will be built up
quickly and provide an over-proportionate share of total mobility
Passenger Vehicle Parc – Consolidated Scenario Passenger Vehicle Parc – Consolidated Scenario
WE, NA, China Germany
860 Shared 45 Shared
Millions
Millions
autonomous autonomous
840 44
820 43
Personally Personally
800 42
owned owned
autonomous autonomous
780 41
760 40
Shared driver- Shared driver-
740 driven 39 driven
720 38
700 Personally 37 Personally
owned driver- owned driver-
680 driven 36 driven
660 35
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 4The Transformation of Mobility will all but Decrease Vehicle Sales, in Spite of Shrinking Parc
In addition to the build-up of new mobility fleets, the more intensely used autonomous and shared vehicles will be
replaced quicker and create additional new vehicle demand
Passenger Vehicle Sales – Consolidated Scenario Passenger Vehicle Sales – Consolidated Scenario
WE, NA, China Germany
80 Shared 4,5 Shared
Millions
Millions
autonomous autonomous
70 4
3,5
60
Personally Personally
owned 3 owned
50 autonomous autonomous
2,5
40
Shared driver- 2 Shared driver-
driven driven
30
1,5
20
1
Personally Personally
10 owned driver- owned driver-
driven 0,5 driven
0 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 5The Introduction of Autonomous Driving will be Hampered by Numerous External Factors
While technology, lawmakers, insurances, leasing companies and conventional car buyers seem to align to keep
autonomous vehicles off the roads, mobility users and urban planners see great potential in new mobility types
New LV Sales – Consolidated Scenario New LV Sales – Consolidated Scenario
WE, NA, China Germany
80 4,5
Millions
Millions
70 4
Level 5 Level 5
3,5
60
Level 4 3 Level 4
50
2,5
Level 3 Level 3
40
2
30 Level 2 Level 2
1,5
20
Level 1 1 Level 1
10 0,5
Level 0 Level 0
0 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 3New Mobility Sub-Markets will Accelerate the Substitution of Conventional Drivetrains
Especially in Urban Areas, pressure towards locally emission-free vehicles will increase rapidly. Due to the foreseeable
change of user and customer expectations, demand patterns will change even faster than regulatory requirements.
New LV Sales – Consolidated Scenario New LV Sales – Consolidated Scenario
WE, NA, China Germany
80 4,5
Millions
Millions
70 4
3,5
60 Electric Electric
3
50
2,5
40
Hybrid 2 Hybrid
30
1,5
20
1
Combustion Combustion
10 0,5
0 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 3At the Example of the German Market, both Sales as well as Value per Car are Expected to Grow
While the acceleration of market dynamics in the new mobility segments increase volume, added content for autonomous
driving and connectivity create new volume and cost dynamics in new and conventional technologies
Total Sales, Total Cost per Vehicle (Germany)
4.000.000 €21.000,00
3.900.000 €20.500,00
€20.000,00
3.800.000
€19.500,00
3.700.000
€19.000,00
3.600.000
€18.500,00
3.500.000
€18.000,00
3.400.000
€17.500,00
3.300.000 €17.000,00
3.200.000 €16.500,00
Sales CPV
PwC Autofacts ® 4While the cost of ICE cars is expected to remain stable, BEV will see significant cost reductions
BEV costs are elevated by small-scale production but will decrease as battery-costs decline. As average capacity of BEV is
assumed to rise – plus a higher share of autonomous technology – value per car remains higher than pure ICE
Average CPV ICE vs. BEV
€40.000,00
€35.000,00
€30.000,00
€25.000,00
€20.000,00
€15.000,00
€10.000,00
€5.000,00
€-
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Average BEV Average ICE Average PHEV
PwC Autofacts ® 5The Total Value Add of Vehicles is Expected to Grow – But Differently in Different Functional Areas
Main growth areas are in E/E, interior and chassis components, as sensoring and actuation become more important in all
areas of the vehicle. Electric powertrains require new NVH and comfort applications especially in vehicle interiors
Total Value Add (Germany)
90
Billions
Total
Connected&Autonomous
80
Total Interior
70
Total Exterior
60
Total Body
50
40 Total E/E
30 Total Chassis
20 Total Powertrain Electric
10
Total Powertrain Combustion
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 8At the Example of Cars Sold in Germany, Total Powertrain Value add is Expected to Increase until 2030
The value add of total powertrain technologies is calculated on the basis of ongoing cost reductions through efficiency
gains, but offset with new exhaust gas treatment technology and requirements
Total Value Add Combustion, Electric Powertrain (Germany)
35
Billions
30
25
20 Total Powertrain Electric
15
10 Total Powertrain Combustion
5
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 5While Mechanical ICE Technologies Decrease in Value, Exhaust Gas Treatment will drive Value Add
Volume impacts from Electric powertrains are not forecast to become noticeable before 2025, while exhaust gas treatment
technologies offer significant opportunities. ICE for Hybrids tend to be mechanically simpler but require new application
Value Add Combustion Powertrain (Germany)
25
Billions
Transmission
20
Cooling
15 Exhaust System
10 Intake System
Fuel System
5
Base Engine
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 6Due to Combined Volume and Value Effects, Electric Drivetrains offer Business Opportunities
Even assuming aggressive cost reduction potential, the fast rise of electric drivetrains creates significant business
opportunities, requiring fast decisions even today – but a long-term strategy and large financial resources
Value Add Electric Powertrain (Germany)
6 12
Billions
Billions
Inverter, Charging
5 10
Transmission
4 8 Cooling
3 6 Exhaust System
Power Electronics,
2 4 security
Electric Motor &
1 2 Generator
Energy Storage
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PwC Autofacts ® 6Forseeable changes in Value Add can come in Several Different Ways – only Substitution is Lethal
The automotive industry has been handling technological progress continuously over 130 years – mostly as technology
leader. Upcoming changes may require the adaptation of non-automotive technologies and processes
Evolution Transformation
Process Technology
Quantitative Qualitative Disruptive Substitutional
PwC Autofacts ® 9Contact and Further Information
Christoph Stürmer Gunnar Jordan
Autofacts Global Lead Analyst Autofacts Analyst
PwC Germany (Europe) PwC Germany (Europe)
T: +49 69 9585 6269 T: +49 711 25034 1195
E: christoph.stuermer@de.pwc.com E: gunnar.jordan@pwc.com
The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within the PwC Research & Analysis Organisation. All material contained in this
report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm’s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of
information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document
does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by
applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document.
© 2018 PwC. All rights reserved. "PwC" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd.,
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
PwC Autofacts ® 74 Autofacts PwC Autofacts® PwC Autofacts ® 34
4 Autofacts
Capabilities
A full suite of industry tools to meet real-life business challenges
Forecast Analyst Briefings Analyst Notes Autofacts App Custom Analysis
Light Vehicle Global & Regional Global & Regional Downloadable Formatted Deliverable
Quarterly Updates Quarterly Updates Monthly Updates Monthly Interactive Data On Demand Tailored Data
• Assembly • Industry Outlook • Key Industry Issues • Multimedia • M&A Valuation Support
• Capacity • Special Topics in Focus • Analysis & Data • Press Releases • Industry Studies
• Powertrain Installation • Key Issues & Megatrends • Sign up at • Interactive Charts & Data • Portfolio Risk Analysis
• Bodystyle Splits www.autofacts.com • Available on the App Store • Business Planning
An independent, unbiased global perspective For more information about Autofacts products
Key and services, please contact:
Differentiating & refined industry viewpoints
Client
Proactive & informed dialogue with executives
Benefits autofacts@us.pwc.com
Access to industry specialists with deep expertise
PwC Autofacts ® 354 Autofacts
Risk Management and Business Audits
Forecasts provide an independent basis to evaluate plans and prospects
Industry Impacts Top-Down Validation
Our independent and steady trend analysis provides Autofacts Forecasts provide an independent
an overview of strategically important topics and viewpoint for assessing and challenging operational
evaluates relevant external risks planning assumptions
Autofacts ®
Independent perspective to identify risks and opportunities
Bottom-Up Planning Global Expertise
The detailed Autofacts Forecast gives a precise map The Autofacts forecasting experts and the global PwC network
of business opportunities and pipeline targets for are available for detailed qualitative and quantitative
measuring the performance of sales and marketing assessment of market impact and risk factors
PwC Autofacts ® 36You can also read
