Alternative Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt - WWWWann? Was? Wie teuer? - Dr.-Ing. Gerd Wuersig - WWWWann? Was ...
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Alternative Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt
- WWW(Wann? Was? Wie teuer?) -
Dr.-Ing. Gerd Wuersig
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 1
Dr. Gerd Wuersig and GMW Consultancy
GMW Consultancy founded 2019 by Dr. Gerd Wuersig.
Process and energy engineer
long term experience in shipping
GMW Consultancy offer independent consultancy to the stakeholders in shipping like owners, suppliers, yards, NGOs and
authorities (comp. www.GMW-Consultancy.com).
Professional experiences related to engineering advisory services, research & development, business
development, process-, gas-, safety- and fuel cell technology.
Long term Involvement in liquefied gas technology
doctorial work on the development of a liquefied hydrogen sea transport system in the early 90ies.
Since the 90ies and until 2013:
contributed as a consultant for the German ministry of transport to IMO work on IGC-Code (IMO Code for Gas Carriers)
amendments, development of the new IGC-Code and the development of the IGF Code (IMO Code for ships with low
flashpoint fuels).
still contribution to the German mirror group on IGF-Code development.
www.GMW-Consultancy.com
Until 2019 representation of GL, DNV and DNV GL at SIGTTO and SGMF
Contribution to different ISO working groups.
Member of the SGMF Technical Committee and the Environmental Committee.
Participation in the development of the ISO and SGMF LNG bunkering requirements, SIGTTO work on LNG
fires around gas carriers.
Since early 90ies: active member of the process technology safety working group of the German chemical
engineers society (DECHEMA).
Active member of VSM, STG, VDI, DECHEMA.
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 2
Alternative Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt
- W = Wann? -
1400
TODAY: 2023: measures
1200
293 mio t(oil eq), 147 mio t(oil eq),
1000 baseline 2008 target 2050
40% New fuels: 70%
CO2 EMISSIONS [mT]
800
600
REVIEW
400 Mitigation: EEDI, EEXI, CII, ….
200 NEWBUILDINGS
SHIP LIFECYCLE (approx. 25 years)
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SHIPPING_CO2
Figure derived from first version developed by Malte Zeretzke 2018 at DNV-GL
3
The scope of the problem and the 2 % Club
Shipping and aviation are two sectors difficult to decarbonize.
The energy consumption is approximately the same as the energy consumption of Germany. Together they are “The 2 % club”
On the overall path toward zero CO2 emissions the absolute contribution of the 2% club is small . But:
In a e.g. 90% decarbonized energy world a non carbonization of the 3% Club would give it the majority of all remaining CO2 emissions
the 3 % Club has to take it’s share!
GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
- Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 4
The scope of the problem
World population growth by
20000 2E+10
70 mio per year between and
2050. 18000 1,8E+10
16000 1,6E+10
For this reason alone an 14000 1,4E+10
increase in energy demand is
world population
Mio t oil equiv/a
12000 1,2E+10
more than likely.
10000 1E+10
The 1,5° aim for GHG requires: 8000 8E+09
to cover the growing demand 6000 6E+09
without fossil fuels.
4000 +70 mio people 4E+09
To reduce the use of coal, oil 2000
per year!
2E+09
and gas dramatically.
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
total energy demand Mio t oil equiv/a world energy demand: Mio t oil equiv/a
Total oil+gas+coal: Mio t oil eqiv/a Total oil+gas+coal: Mio t oil eqiv/a
today world population 2020 to 2100 (UN median case)
world population 1959 to 2020
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 5
The 50% reduction target compared to current an past ambitions.
To reach only 50 % reduction in fossil Past energy consumption and low estimate on future energy need.
fuel use until 2050 requires: 20000
a reduction equal to 184 mio t of oil 18000
equivalent every year. 16000 total need
A substitution by CO2 free or neutral 14000 Wann? JETZT
energy of 184 mio t oil equivalent total consumption
Mio t oil equiv
12000
every year. oil gas coal
10000 -184 mio t(oil eq)/a
(50% reduction! (IMO))
Current ambitions are much higher 8000
than the 50% aim of IMO for deep 6000
oil
sea shipping! 4000
coal gas
E.g. IEA: - 87% CO2 emission reduction 2000
for shipping.
0
IEA special report Mai 2021: “Net Zero by 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy
Sector”
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 6
Alternative Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt
- W = Was/Wie? -
LNG combined with PtX LMG has clear cost
advantages: “Drop in” works everywhere!
LNG+LMG: only 30% LMG needed to reach IMO
50% goal.
MGO+FT-Fuel: 50% FT-Fuel needed to reach Fossil
fuel
IMO 50% goal. today
Pure PtX fuels like Ammonia or Hydrogen
have cost disadvantages
Mit „drop in“ Brennstoffen ist ein Übergang eher
bezahlbar als mit puren PtX Brennstoffen!
GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
- Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 7
Warum nicht JETZT “klimaneutral” sein?
There is practically
no PtX production % of todays ship fuel (100%: energy content ship fuel; all shipping)
today! 120 GMW Consultancy, Dr. Wuersig 11 % of world gas market
(100 % = current ship fuel)
PtX can not play a
relevant role before 100
% of Energy
2030! 80
LNG and to some 60
extend LPG are the 40 darum!
only real fuel
20
alternatives today.
0
HFO, MGO LPG LNG CH3OH Bio fuel H2 PtX NH3
CH3OH
production capacity 2016
(Methanol )
assumed consumption 2020 (330 Mio production 2016 (Bio Diesel and straight
HFO,MGO Bio fuel
t/a) vegetable oil)
LPG production in 2015 H2 production 2016
production capacity end 2018 (approx. Power to Liquid and Power to Gas: GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
LNG PtX - Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making -
10% of natural gas production) CO2+H2 --> fuel
6/9/2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 8
Nichts geht über die Energiedichte von Öl!
- Tankgrößen für PtX Tanks eines 24000 TEU Container Schiffes -
10550 m**3 MGO Wie teuer wird das?
- 0 TEU
18600 m**3 LNG MGO
0 bis - 576 TEU CH3OH
LNG
25559 m**3 CH3OH No loss but gain!
PERFECt Ship (LNG YouTube)
- 576 TEU
30158 m**3 NH3
- 576 TEU NH3
LH2
45142 m**3 LH2
- 1152 TEU
MS Titanic: L=269 m
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 9
Morgen fahren wir alle mit Wasserstoff!
- Oder doch nicht ? -
Transport tanks for Liquefied hydrogen have
been built as
Containers up to 300 m**3 LH2 exist
Ship tank installed in the test ship SUISO Source: GMW Consultancy
FRONTIER has 1.200 m**3 LH2 tank
Der „Stand der Technik“ in
Developments have been done for der H2 Technologie für
The EQHHPP Project for 3.000 m**3 Tanks Schiffe ist ist 25 Jahre alt
(1989/1996) aber immer (noch) deutsch
Source: Nordseeweerke Emden
Tank system has been tested with a 60 m**3 test tank
The HDW, GL project for tanks of
23.000 m**3 LH2
Kawasaki announced a 160.000,- m**3 LH2
tanker for 2030 Source: TKMS
und (noch) nicht japanisch!
3000 m**3 LH are equal to 710 m** of oil!
Source: Internet (Kawasaki)
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 10Alternative Kraftstoffe in der Schifffahrt
- W = Wie teuer? -
The production costs of PtX (Power Total costs for PtX supply with hydrogen from water electrolysis.
to X) fuels are similar.
2,00
There is no clear “winner”.
Note: 1 kg oil is equal to approx.
12 kWh 1,50 Wie teuer?
Sehr teuer aber nicht unbezahlbar für die Weltgemeinschaft.
$/kg(oil eq)
Fossil
1,00 fuel
P Q
0,50
transport costs: 10.000 sm round trip
94
nitrogen generatio (CAPEX+energy)
95
96 liquefation (CAPEX + energy)
electricity for electrolysis (0,05 $/kWh)
97 0,00
98 OPEX electrolyser+sysnthesis Hydrogen Methane Methanol FT-Diesel Ammonia Car Diesel Germany
99 CAPEX electrolyser+synthesis (Feb 2021)
100 CO2 costs (or CO2 tax (Ger))
101 taxes on Diesel in Ger
102 VAT on Diesel in Ger
total costs (including crude) at refinery in GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
103 Ger - Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 11Cost level of PtX Fuel compared to fossil counterparts
PtX fuels cost about 0,16 to
0,18 $/kWh
This is today about 6,5 times the
cost of fossil fuels.
For comparison: Car Diesel in
Germany has a price level of
about 3 times the cost of MGO
monthly updated on www.GMW-Consultnacy.com
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 12The fairytale about the bad Methane in LNG and PtX LMG (Liquefied Methane Gas)
Using PtX Liquefied Methane Gas (LMG) 0,25
CO2-eq of CH4 slip for PtX LMG fuelled energy converters
instead of LNG will only have a Tank to Propeller
GHG effect from Methane slip! 0,20
The CH4 slip effect without any exhaust gas
after treatment (dark green) is well below 20% 0,15
slip gCO2-eq/(gCO2-eq MGO)
of the CO2 emissions of fossil MGO fuel.
The benefit of fossil LNG is approx. 25% Tank to 0,10
Propeller CO2 emissions are always below CO2
emissions of fossil MGO. 0,05
With exhaust gas after treatment slip effect is
at a maximum approx. 5% of CO2 emissions of 0,00
4-St, Otto GE 4-St, Otto DF 2-St, Otto DF 2-St, Diesel DF COGES
fossil MGO fuel. slip/MGO GHG: Today without treatment slip/MGO GHG; 2025 with treatment
GMW Consultancy, Dr. Wuersig
Including Methane slip the reduction potential
of PtX Methane (LMG) is 95% to more than 99%
of CO2 emissions from fossil MGO.
GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
- Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 13Potential for CO2 reduction
- what always remains are the emissions from production (WtT) -
1,20
GMW Consultancy, Dr. Wuersig
1,00 TtP+WtT emiss. of
WTT CO2 emis. (g/MJ)/(g/MJ) HFO
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
Estimated maximum
for WtT emissions of
PtX fuels
0,00
HFO MGO LNG (with LNG LPG Methanol Methanol Biodiesel Biogas H2 (liquid; H2 (liquid;
transp. (Middle E. (CH3OH (CH3OH (97% from CH4) from water
Middle used in from CH4) from black CH4=LMG; electroly.)
WtT E./EU) Middle E.) liquor) liquefied)
GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
- Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making -
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 14Prediction toward 2050
Fossil fuel (MGO, LNG) dominate within the next
2020 2021 2025 2029 2030 2040 2050
2 decades.
LNG (fossil)
PtX fuels substitute fossil fuels as drop in fuels:
4,00 3,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 1,00 2,00
PtX LMG 6,00 6,00 6,00 5,00 5,00 4,00 3,00
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Liquefied Methane LPG (fossil) 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 5,00 6,00
Gas (LMG) PtX CH3OH 5,00 5,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 3,00 3,00
Bio Fuel
MGO Bio Diesel, Fischer Tropsch Diesel (FT-Diesel)
6,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 3,00
PtF (FT-Diesel) 6,00 6,00 6,00 5,00 5,00 4,00 3,00
Fossil Methanol (CH3OH) PtX Methanol PtX H2 6,00 6,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 4,00 4,00
PtX NH3 6,00 6,00 5,00 6,00 6,00 6,00 6,00
Hydrogen (H2) will play a role in niche markets HFO, LSHFO (fossil)
(short distance close to H2 production)
1,00 1,00 1,00 5,00 5,00 6,00 6,00
MGO (fossil) 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 2,00
PtX Ammonia (NH3) will replaced ammonia from
natural gas in the existing markets (chemical
industry, fertilizer).
GMW Consultancy: Alternative Fuels for International Shipping
- Some Guidance and Background for Today's Decision Making
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 15Letztes Wort (für heute)
Die Welt mag CO2 neutral werden aber weder frei
von CO2 noch frei von Kohlenstoff!
Es wird einen sehr langen Übergang mit C basierten PtX
und CO2 aus CCU (Carbon Capture and Use) geben.
Danach wird der CO2 Kreislauf der PtX Brennstoffe durch
CO2 aus der Abscheidung aus der Umgebungsluft
geschlossen werden.
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 16Dr. Ing. Gerd Wuersig
Gerd.Wuersig@GMW-Consultancy.com
Address:
Butendiek 14
D-21714 Hammah, Germany
+49-151-4066-9207
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 17And here you find the “Bonus Material”
How may the quantitative future in ship fuel look like in 2050?
fossil fuels: assumptions for fuel types in shipping 2050: IEA 2021, GMW C 2020
LNG 1,10
MGO
HFO, LPG 0,90
shares of fuel in shipping: 2050
PtX fuels: 0,70
LMG (Liquefied Methane
Gas) 0,50
Methanol (CH3OH)
Bio Fuel 0,30
Fischer Tropsch Diesel
(FT-Diesel) 0,10
Liquefied Hydrogen
(LH2), compressed -0,10
2020 GMW C: shares in fuel 2050: IEA 2021; shares in fuel
Hydrogen (H2) LNG MGO LMG CH3OH Bio Fuel FT Diesel LH2, H2 HFO LPG NH3
Liquefied Ammonia
(NH3)
09.06.2021 DR.-ING. WUERSIG - GMW CONSULTANCY - 18You can also read
