Colombian Experience in Developing a INDC on mitigation
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Colombian Experience in
Developing a INDC on mitigation
1
CONTEXT
Colombian GHG Emissions
• Agriculture is the biggest emitter sector in
the country.
• Regarding energy:
• Most of the emissions are related to
transportation (prevalence of the road
transportation, geography, age of fleet)
• High share of renewables in electricity
generation.
• Relatively low energy consumption per
capita.
Colombian emissions in 2004. [Gg]. Data: Ideam 2009. • In general, Colombian energy
intensive industries are small
CO2 Emissions [CO2 tons per capita]. Data: WB 2014.CLCDS modelling inputs for INDC
2011
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Agriculture
Electricity
2012 Scenario Sectoral Studies Coal, oil and gas
Building (Using different modeling Transportation
Teams (SBT) approaches) Residential
Industry
Waste
2013
SMAPs & Co-benefit analysis
Other activities and
NAMAs
analysis
2014
• Intersectoral relations (agreggated
Scenarios)
2015 • Bottom-up tools: Markal,Calcultor INDC
• Top-down tools: CGE (MEG4C),
Required by ScienceScenarios Building The analysis was made by sector using different bottom up approaches. An aggregated scenario was made but it is important to highlight that intersectoral analysis must be done to avoid a double counting and include all the impacts between sectors.
Mitigation Abatement Cost Curves Waste
Agriculture
Oil, gas and coal
Energy generation Interconnected
National System
Industry TransportationSectoral Mitigation Action Plans
Ministry of Environment
and Sustainable
Development
Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy
National Planning
Department
Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of
Ministry of Commerce, Agriculture Housing,
Ministry of
Mining and Industry and and Rural Cities and
Transport
Energy Tourism Development Territories
Transport Minning Industry Agriculture Housing
SMAP SMAP SMAP SMAP SMAP
Electricity
Solid Waste
SMAP
and Waste
Approved Water
Hydrocarbons SMAP
Under
SMAP constructionPREPARING COLOMBIA’S INDC ON MITIGATION
INDC Roadmap (1)
A Roadmap was agreed within the “Climate Change International Affairs
Committee” to develop the national process (May, 2014)
It includes the different activities that should be developed to prepared and
agree a mitigation INDC, as well as to ensure its implementation in the
coming years
The roadmap cover technical, political and participatory activities
2014 2015
Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
Cumbre CC Ban Ki-Moon
COP 20 (Lima): decisión de UFI
Presentación de contribuciones ante la CMNUCC
International para los países en capacidad de hacerlo (por
Milestones mandato de la COP 19)
COP 21 (Paris): firma de nuevo instrumento legal
Reuniones Interministeriales de Alto Nivel para
lanzar y revisar avances del proceso
Decision-making at
Consulta con expertos para hacer exploración
the political level metodológica y diseño de una consultoría que
apoye los aspectos políticos
Top Construcción de Escenarios Adicionales:
requerido por la ciencia, requerido por la
down equidad, instrumentos económicos (impuesto al
Analysis carbono y cap-and-trade)INDC Roadmap (2)
2014 2015
Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
Top Construcción de Escenarios Adicionales:
requerido por la ciencia, requerido por la
down equidad, instrumentos económicos (impuesto al
Analysis carbono y cap-and-trade)
Cálculo de potencial del mitigación de PAS y
NAMAs - ECDBC
Bottom-
Análisis para intensificar/incrementar ambición
Up de los PAS
Technical Analysis Análisis AFOLU/REDD+ para su inclusión en la
NDC
process
Consult- Reuniones de Consulta con Equipo de Expertos
ations
Mejoras al modelo de equilibrio general
Impact
Integración de modelos de equilibrio parcial (ej:
Assess- Markal, Times)
ment Análisis de medidas bajo el MEG4C (análisis de
impactos socio económicos)
Versión preliminar de INDC
Presentación de INDC ante CMNUCC
INDC Deliverables Versión final para el Acuerdo de París (sujeto a
acuerdos internacionales en la materia)
Estrategia de Comunicaciones para la
Contribución
Participatory Process Lanzamiento de la Calculadora de Carbono
Discusiones con sociedad civil
NDC Implemen- Construcción de acuerdos sobre elementos para
la implementación de la contribución
tation SchemeNAMAs and SMAPs to INDC
• Colombia has been working with CCAP and others on development of INDC,
• Goal: To identify an ambitious, realistic mitigation target for Colombia’s INDC,
compatible with its sustainable development challenges
• Bottom-Up process identifying opportunities for mitigation
– Measures in Sectoral Mitigation Action Plans (SMAPs)
– Efforts identified through NAMA Development (Waste, TOD)
– Additional measures based on previous sectoral experience
– Suggest approaches to implement and finance key measures
• In the initial phase, we have primarily looked at three sectors:
– Electric Energy
– Transport
– Waste
• Together, these sectors account for just under half of those emissions that
don’t come from Agriculture or Land Use in 2010 (45 MtCO2e)
CCAP 11Reductions of 17- 23 MtCO2e in 2030
• Expansion of integrated waste management CCAP Proposed Measures
Waste • Reductions: 5.4 MtCO2e in 2030 vs. sector
BAU (66%) vs. BAU in 2030
80.00
70.00
Emissions in 2030 (MtCO2e)
• Three areas of effort: 1) Freight 2) TOD 60.00
3) Passenger Vehicle Efficiency
Transport • Reductions: 6.8-7.6 MtCO2e in 2030 vs. sector 50.00
BAU(14-16%) 40.00 Waste
30.00 Electricity SIN
Transport
• Integration of 15% Non-Hydro Renewables by 20.00
2030
Electricity • Reductions: 4.6 – 9.7 MtCO2e in 2030 vs. BAU
10.00
(37-78%)* 0.00
BAU Mitigation
Scenario
• Together, these reductions represent 17-23 MtCO2e (23-31%) below
BAU for these sectors
• 8.5-11.5% of overall national emissions
• More work must be done in additional sectors
• Transport presents a major challenge because of growth in driving
*NB In the modeled scenario, 2030 is a year of particularly low emissions due to El NiñoCOMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO CLIMATIC CHANGE MEG4C
Nested production MEG4C
=0: leontieff
≠0: CES
PRODUCTION
(Xp)
=0 Intermediate
Value added
consumption
(KEL)
(Xap)
≠0
Capital-Energy Labour (L)
(KE) Domestic
intermediates
≠0
Energy (E) ≠0 Capital (K)
Imported
Skill
intermediates
≠0
UnskillEnergy carriers or
=0: leontieff
≠0: CES
Sectors
Energy (E)
=0
Natural
Electricity Coal Fuels
Gas
OilImport demand Nesting &
Export Suplly Nesting
=0: leontieff
≠0: CES Armington Domestic
Demand production
≠0 Imported ≠0 Aggregate
Domestic Demand exports
Demand Domestic sales
ROW ROW2 APPROACH TO
SOFT-LINKING
Demands of energy
Energy Cost
MARKAL MEG4C
ProductionMODELING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION MEASURES WITH MEG4C
Macroeconomic Analysis of
Mitigation Actions
MEDIDAS DEL LADO DE LA DEMANDA:
BOMBILLOS EFICIENTES
ENERGY EFFICIENCY Replacing incandescent bulbs
Replacing refrigerator
Consumption of
Change the parameters electricity
reduce consumption of that determine the
energy minimum consumption
Consumptions of
for each good
other
manufactured
goods (more
efficient)MACROECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF
MITIGATION ACTIONS
SECTORIAL GDP CONSUMPTION
TOTAL GDP
0.16%
0.14%
0.12%
0.10%
0.08%
0.06%
0.04%
↓ GDP electricity 0.02%
↓ ELECTRIC 0.00%
CONSUMPTION ↑ disposable income 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
↑ consumption of other ↑ GDP
goodsMACROECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
EMISSIONS OF CO2 by sectors
1500
1000
Δ emissions of CO2
500
0
2030
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
-500
-1000
-1500
Consumo hogares - Combustibles fósiles Resto de emisiones Sector de electricidad
Δ % national emission
2013 2020 2030 2040
Emisiones -0,009% 0,077% 0,055% 0,05%
nacionalesTax with recicled
Cambio porcentual en el PIB real
1.00%
0.50%
Cambio Porcentual
0.00%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
-0.50%
-1.00%
-1.50%
-2.00%
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