Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp

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Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
                                        Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
                                       energia convenzionale e alternativa

                     Il Mercato della Power Generation

                                              Carlo Luzzatto
                                           Condirettore Generale
                                             Ansaldo Energia

Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP                              XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
                      Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
                     energia convenzionale e alternativa

Contents

           "The Value Chain
           !

           #"Market Forecasts

           $"Projects and Players
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
           Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
          energia convenzionale e alternativa

"The Value Chain
!
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
                                          Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
                                         energia convenzionale e alternativa
The Value Chain (I)
                                    Power Plant
                                                                    Equipment
       Power Plant                  Engineering,                                                  Service and
                                                                 Manufacturing and
       Development                Procurement and                                                 Maintenance
                                                                      Supply
                                    Construction

% Plant configuration and   % Engineering, Procurement       % Gas Turbine for open and    % Spare Parts, Upgrading and
  basic design                and Construction of              combined cycles ranging       Repowering Solutions, Long
% Environmental Impact        complete power plants            from 70MW up to 285 MW        Term Service Agreements,
  Assessment                  providing the customers with   % Steam Turbines ranging        Training, Field Service,
% Permitting                  turn-key or customary            from 50MW up to 1000MW        Repairs, Remote Monitoring
                              solutions                                                      & Diagnostics
                                                             % Generators for steam, gas
                            % Management of the                and hydro turbines          % LTSA on AEN and third
                              complete supply chain                                          parties installed fleet
                            % Execution of all site works,
                              assembly of components,
                              managing the installation
                              and commissioning.                  Margins

                                                                               Equipment           Service

                                                                                                    EPC

                                                                                                             Cash
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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The Value Chain (II)
                                      EPC                                Equipment Manufacturer
                          and/or Equipment Manufacturer

          Open Cycle                           Combined Cycle               Thermal Power Plant

                                                 Steam Turbines                  Steam Turbines
         Gas Turbines
                                                  Gas Turbines                       Boiler
           Generator
                                                     HRSG                          Generator
              I&C
                                                   Generator
                                                                                       I&C
          BOP & Aux
                                                      I&C
                                                                                   BOP & Aux
          Civil Works
                                                   BOP & Aux
                                                                                  Civil Works
         Transportation
                                                  Civil Works
          Engineering                                                            Transportation
                                                 Transportation
                                                                                  Engineering
                                                  Engineering
                                                                    AEN Supply    Third Party Supply   Partly AEN Supply
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
            Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
           energia convenzionale e alternativa

#"Market Forecasts
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
                                             Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
                                            energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I)
(M!)                                                                                                              • 2008 was a record year
                                                                                                                    in terms of orders for
 450000                                                                                                             most of the power
                                                                                                                    generation technologies,
 400000                                                                                                             especially Hydro,
                                                                                                                    Nuclear and Wind, while
 350000
                                                                                                                    Gas and Steam almost
                                                                                                                    repeated the outstanding
 300000
                                                                                                                    2007 performance
 250000
                                                                                                                  • In the medium term the
 200000
                                                                                                                    slight reduction of
                                                                                                                    investments in Hydro
 150000                                                                                                             and Steam will be
                                                                                                                    counterbalanced by
 100000                                                                                                             increasing investments
                                                                                                                    in other high CapEx
  50000                                                                                                             technologies like Solar
                                                                                                                    and Distributed
       0                                                                                                            Generation
           2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

                 GAS*    STEAM     NUCLEAR     HYDRO     WIND    SOLAR        Other REN&DG

                                                                   Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
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Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I)
(M!)
                                                                                                  • Power generation market
                                                                                                    in the last 2 years was
 450000
                                                                                                    dominated by new
                                                                                                    Steam Coal plants in
 400000
                                                                                                    China and India (> 380
                                                                                                    B! in new orders)
                                                                                                  • EU and Middle East
 350000
                                                                                                    orders > 65 B!/yr in ’07-
                                                                                                    ’08, driven by Gas Plants
 300000
                                                                                                  • In the medium term a
                                                                                                    strong comeback of
 250000
                                                                                                    North America is
                                                                                                    expected due to the
 200000                                                                                             massive replacements of
                                                                                                    aging plants, along with
 150000                                                                                             current restructuring plan
                                                                                                    in Russia and Eastern
 100000                                                                                             Europe
                                                                                                  • Investments reduction in
  50000                                                                                             China and India should
                                                                                                    be counterbalanced by
       0                                                                                            increasing expenditures
           2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020     in other Emerging
                                                                                                    Economies in South-
                 EU           AFRICA            MIDDLE EAST        Rest Of EUROPE/CIS               East Asia, Africa and
                 RUSSIA       LATIN AMERICA     OCEANIA            ASIA                             Latin America
                 INDIA        CHINA             NORTH AMERICA
                                                                                                          Source: AEN internal elaboration
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
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Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology

 (MW)                                                                                           • Booming Renewables &
                                                                                                  Distributed Generation
 80000                                                                                            Market, mostly driven by
                                                                                                  Wind installations in EU,
 70000                                                                                            North Am., China and India
                                                                                                • Considerable orders for Solar
                                                                                                  PV have started in 2006 due
 60000                                                                                            to incentives in many EU
                                                                                                  countries but, as price of this
                                                                                                  technology is quickly
 50000                                                                                            decreasing, in the next ten
                                                                                                  years Solar PV orders could
 40000
                                                                                                  reach volumes close to those
                                                                                                  for Wind power.
                                                                                                • Concentrated Solar Power
 30000                                                                                            (CSP) and Biomass & Waste
                                                                                                  to Energy markets are also
                                                                                                  estimated to show large
 20000                                                                                            growth rates in the close
                                                                                                  future
                                                                                                • More mature technologies
 10000
                                                                                                  like Gensets, Mini Hydro and
                                                                                                  Geothermal should keep
    0                                                                                             their historical market levels
         2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020     while innovative technologies
                                                                                                  like Fuel Cells are not
                                                                                                  forecast to provide
                       BIOMASS/WTE    FUEL CELLS    GENSET    GEOTHERMAL                          substantial contributions at
                         MINI HYDRO    SOLAR CSP     SOLAR PV   WIND
                                                                                                  least over the projected
                                                                                                  period
                                                                                                         Source: AEN internal elaboration
Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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Impact of the Crisis
            Before the
             financial
              crisis…       Rate of investment in PG              New Players
                             increase significantly

             What’s
            happening                                             Consolidation,
              now…          Global power orders to
                                 Europe                      Capex Cuts by Utilities,
                           fall by up to 50% in 2009        Limited access to funding

                         Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60
                                     Hz)
                             1st Half ’08    1st Half ’09

                                 34               16
                                          -53%
                                 GW               GW

                            Gas Turbines for Power Generation
                                Application above 50 MW
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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Shaping of the European Market
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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$"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market*
                        16%

                                                              30000
                                                     47%                                 OEM to utilities

                                                              25000                      OEM to EPC

                  37%                                                                    OEM EPC TK
                                                              20000

                  OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities
                                                              15000

       Steam                                     24.5 GW      10000

                                                              5000
   Open Cycles                                   27.5 GW

                                                                      Combined Cycles

                                                                                                               Combined Cycles

                                                                                                                                                       Combined Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                               Combined Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Combined Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Combined Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Combined Cycles
                                                                 0

                                                                                         Open Cycles

                                                                                                                                 Open Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                         Open Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Open Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Open Cycles

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Open Cycles
                                                                                                       Steam

                                                                                                                                               Steam

                                                                                                                                                                                       Steam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Steam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Steam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Steam
Combined Cycles                                   68 GW

           0%       20%    40%   60%    80%   100%

    (*)
                                                 120 GW
    • New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and                                AFRICA                 ASIA/FAR EAST                                             CIS                                EUROPE                             ITALY               LATIN MIDDLE EAST
        Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above                                                                                                                                                                                                       AMERICA
        50MW and STs above 100MW
    • 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
                                                           Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
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Main EPC Players
                                                                                             EU27+Turkey
                                                                                   A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT),
                                                                                                                                                            Russia
                                                                                   MetKa (GR),                                              Russian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd.,
                                                                                   Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES)                         Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport,
                                                                                   Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR)                       E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz)
                                                                                   Fluor (US)

                                                              Italy                                                                               Far East and Iran
                                                  FWI                                                                                    Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin
                                                  Techint

                                                                                                                C
                                                                                                                                         Power Equipment, DongFang Electric

                                                                                                              P
                                                  Tecnimont

                                                                                                            E
                                                                                                                                         Company, China National Machinery &

                                                                                                       in g
                                                  Fata                                                                                   Equipment Import & Export Corporation

                                                                                  p l a y artners)                                       (CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC (

                                                                                ’s OP P
                                                                                                                                         POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan)

                                                       O E M with B
                                 M a              jo r    ortiu
                                                                m
                                + ten in Cons
                                            (of

                                                                                                                                            Middle East
   Americas (only 50 Hz market)                                                                                         Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang,
POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP),                                                                                               Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment),
Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
                                                                                       Africa                           Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa),
Tecnimont (IT),                                                                                                         Saipem (IT), Metka (GR)
                                                                      Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN),
Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US)
                                                                      SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP),
                                                                      ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
                                                                      Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)
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Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only)

                            75                         Orders 2010-2014                                                   26

                            70            GW                                                         25,2                 24
                                          Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent
  • Combined and            65
                                          Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent                                        22
                            60
    Open Cycles             55                                                                34
                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                          18
    Projects Only           50                                  15,5

                                           14,1                                                                           16
                            45

                            40                                                                                            14
                                                                 5
  • Projects on             35
                                  9,1                                                                       10,4
                                                                                                                   11,5
                                                                                                                          12
                                            14 9,4
                            30
    Turnkey EPC                                                                                                     4     10
                            25
                                                       3                                                    10            8
    basis Only              20
                                   15
                                                                                    4,1       38
                                                                 35                                                       6
                            15                                                    2,8
                                            25                                                                     26
                                                                                                                          4
                            10                        21
                                                                                          5         2,1     18
  • 50Hz Countries          5      11
                                                                              2
                                                                                                     2                    2
                                                                              6           6          4
    Only                    0
                                 AFRICA    ASIA     CHINA       EU       INDIA       LATIN MIDDLE OCEANI Rest Of RUSSIA
                                                                                                                          0

                                                                                    AMERIC EAST     A    Europe
                                                                                       A                  & CIS

                                           Source: AEN internal elaboration
  • Gas Turbines
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Sample of Projects 2009-2012
                                                                           EU27+Turkey
                                                                              2009 orders                                                              Russia
                                                  -Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens                                 2009 orders
                                                  -UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom                           -Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo
                                                  -Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK              -Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport
                                                  Siemens                                                                                             2010-12
                                                                                 2010-12                                      -Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK
                                                  -France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK                             -Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK
                                                  -Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK
                                                  -Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK
                                                  -Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK
                                             Italy                                                                                          Far East and Iran
                                          2009 orders                                                                                             2009 orders
                     -Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia                                                -Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board,
                     -Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid                                              TK Shanghay Electric
                                            2010-12                                                                                                2010-2012
                     - Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK                                                                      -Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp
                     - Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK                                                                     any of Bangladesh, TK
                     - Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK                                                                  -Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK
                     -- ……
                     -- ……

                                                                                                                                             Middle East
                                                                                                                                                   2009 orders
                                                                                                                      -UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni
                                                                                                                      -Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka
                                                                                                                                                    2010-12
                                                                                                                      -UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK
                                                                                          Africa                      -Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TK
        Americas (only 50 Hz market)
                                                                                           2010-12
                     2009 orders
                                                                 -Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant
-Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK
                                                                 -Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK
Tecnimont
                                                                 -South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant
                        2010-12
-Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects

                                                                         Source: Frost & Sullivan
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  AEN Profile
          (Back-Up)
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Company Profile
     Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy
     industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative
                                        product portfolio

                      New Units                         Service                Nuclear
              EPC            Equipment

                   ’08 Orders: 1.371M!             ’08 Orders:   640M!    ’08Orders:    41M!
                  ’08 Revenues:   987M!            ’08 Revenues: 315M!    ’08 Revenues: 31M!

 •    A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than
      170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries
 •    Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and
      about 3,000 employees
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM)         POWER PLANTS           SERVICE OEM &

    Gas Turbines
   Steam Turbines
     Generators
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
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         Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08)

Thermoelectric                                                                        Hydroelectric
Power Plants                                                99,372 MW                 Power Plants
130,709 MW                                                                            45,748 MW

                    33,882 MW
                                                31,778 MW
                                                                        11,425 MW

        Steam Turbines           Gas Turbines         Turbogenerators    Hydrogenerators
        89,035 MW                25,964 MW            106,000 MVA        26,506 MVA
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