Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
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Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Il Mercato della Power Generation Carlo Luzzatto Condirettore Generale Ansaldo Energia Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Contents "The Value Chain ! #"Market Forecasts $"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa "The Value Chain !
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa The Value Chain (I) Power Plant Equipment Power Plant Engineering, Service and Manufacturing and Development Procurement and Maintenance Supply Construction % Plant configuration and % Engineering, Procurement % Gas Turbine for open and % Spare Parts, Upgrading and basic design and Construction of combined cycles ranging Repowering Solutions, Long % Environmental Impact complete power plants from 70MW up to 285 MW Term Service Agreements, Assessment providing the customers with % Steam Turbines ranging Training, Field Service, % Permitting turn-key or customary from 50MW up to 1000MW Repairs, Remote Monitoring solutions & Diagnostics % Generators for steam, gas % Management of the and hydro turbines % LTSA on AEN and third complete supply chain parties installed fleet % Execution of all site works, assembly of components, managing the installation and commissioning. Margins Equipment Service EPC Cash
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa The Value Chain (II) EPC Equipment Manufacturer and/or Equipment Manufacturer Open Cycle Combined Cycle Thermal Power Plant Steam Turbines Steam Turbines Gas Turbines Gas Turbines Boiler Generator HRSG Generator I&C Generator I&C BOP & Aux I&C BOP & Aux Civil Works BOP & Aux Civil Works Transportation Civil Works Engineering Transportation Transportation Engineering Engineering AEN Supply Third Party Supply Partly AEN Supply
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa #"Market Forecasts
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I) (M!) • 2008 was a record year in terms of orders for 450000 most of the power generation technologies, 400000 especially Hydro, Nuclear and Wind, while 350000 Gas and Steam almost repeated the outstanding 300000 2007 performance 250000 • In the medium term the 200000 slight reduction of investments in Hydro 150000 and Steam will be counterbalanced by 100000 increasing investments in other high CapEx 50000 technologies like Solar and Distributed 0 Generation 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GAS* STEAM NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND SOLAR Other REN&DG Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I) (M!) • Power generation market in the last 2 years was 450000 dominated by new Steam Coal plants in 400000 China and India (> 380 B! in new orders) • EU and Middle East 350000 orders > 65 B!/yr in ’07- ’08, driven by Gas Plants 300000 • In the medium term a strong comeback of 250000 North America is expected due to the 200000 massive replacements of aging plants, along with 150000 current restructuring plan in Russia and Eastern 100000 Europe • Investments reduction in 50000 China and India should be counterbalanced by 0 increasing expenditures 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 in other Emerging Economies in South- EU AFRICA MIDDLE EAST Rest Of EUROPE/CIS East Asia, Africa and RUSSIA LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA ASIA Latin America INDIA CHINA NORTH AMERICA Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology (MW) • Booming Renewables & Distributed Generation 80000 Market, mostly driven by Wind installations in EU, 70000 North Am., China and India • Considerable orders for Solar PV have started in 2006 due 60000 to incentives in many EU countries but, as price of this technology is quickly 50000 decreasing, in the next ten years Solar PV orders could 40000 reach volumes close to those for Wind power. • Concentrated Solar Power 30000 (CSP) and Biomass & Waste to Energy markets are also estimated to show large 20000 growth rates in the close future • More mature technologies 10000 like Gensets, Mini Hydro and Geothermal should keep 0 their historical market levels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 while innovative technologies like Fuel Cells are not forecast to provide BIOMASS/WTE FUEL CELLS GENSET GEOTHERMAL substantial contributions at MINI HYDRO SOLAR CSP SOLAR PV WIND least over the projected period Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Impact of the Crisis Before the financial crisis… Rate of investment in PG New Players increase significantly What’s happening Consolidation, now… Global power orders to Europe Capex Cuts by Utilities, fall by up to 50% in 2009 Limited access to funding Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60 Hz) 1st Half ’08 1st Half ’09 34 16 -53% GW GW Gas Turbines for Power Generation Application above 50 MW
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Shaping of the European Market
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa $"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market* 16% 30000 47% OEM to utilities 25000 OEM to EPC 37% OEM EPC TK 20000 OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities 15000 Steam 24.5 GW 10000 5000 Open Cycles 27.5 GW Combined Cycles Combined Cycles Combined Cycles Combined Cycles Combined Cycles Combined Cycles Combined Cycles 0 Open Cycles Open Cycles Open Cycles Open Cycles Open Cycles Open Cycles Steam Steam Steam Steam Steam Steam Combined Cycles 68 GW 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% (*) 120 GW • New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and AFRICA ASIA/FAR EAST CIS EUROPE ITALY LATIN MIDDLE EAST Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above AMERICA 50MW and STs above 100MW • 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India) Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Main EPC Players EU27+Turkey A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT), Russia MetKa (GR), Russian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd., Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES) Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport, Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR) E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz) Fluor (US) Italy Far East and Iran FWI Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin Techint C Power Equipment, DongFang Electric P Tecnimont E Company, China National Machinery & in g Fata Equipment Import & Export Corporation p l a y artners) (CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC ( ’s OP P POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan) O E M with B M a jo r ortiu m + ten in Cons (of Middle East Americas (only 50 Hz market) Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang, POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP), Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment), Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES), Africa Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa), Tecnimont (IT), Saipem (IT), Metka (GR) Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN), Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US) SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP), ACS Cobra, Initec (ES), Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only) 75 Orders 2010-2014 26 70 GW 25,2 24 Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent • Combined and 65 Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent 22 60 Open Cycles 55 34 20 18 Projects Only 50 15,5 14,1 16 45 40 14 5 • Projects on 35 9,1 10,4 11,5 12 14 9,4 30 Turnkey EPC 4 10 25 3 10 8 basis Only 20 15 4,1 38 35 6 15 2,8 25 26 4 10 21 5 2,1 18 • 50Hz Countries 5 11 2 2 2 6 6 4 Only 0 AFRICA ASIA CHINA EU INDIA LATIN MIDDLE OCEANI Rest Of RUSSIA 0 AMERIC EAST A Europe A & CIS Source: AEN internal elaboration • Gas Turbines
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Sample of Projects 2009-2012 EU27+Turkey 2009 orders Russia -Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens 2009 orders -UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom -Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo -Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK -Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport Siemens 2010-12 2010-12 -Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK -France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK -Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK -Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK -Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK -Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK Italy Far East and Iran 2009 orders 2009 orders -Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia -Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board, -Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid TK Shanghay Electric 2010-12 2010-2012 - Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK -Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp - Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK any of Bangladesh, TK - Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK -Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK -- …… -- …… Middle East 2009 orders -UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni -Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka 2010-12 -UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK Africa -Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TK Americas (only 50 Hz market) 2010-12 2009 orders -Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant -Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK -Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK Tecnimont -South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant 2010-12 -Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects Source: Frost & Sullivan
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa AEN Profile (Back-Up)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Company Profile Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative product portfolio New Units Service Nuclear EPC Equipment ’08 Orders: 1.371M! ’08 Orders: 640M! ’08Orders: 41M! ’08 Revenues: 987M! ’08 Revenues: 315M! ’08 Revenues: 31M! • A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than 170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries • Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and about 3,000 employees
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, Product Portfolio energia convenzionale e alternativa MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM) POWER PLANTS SERVICE OEM & Gas Turbines Steam Turbines Generators
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione, Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore, energia convenzionale e alternativa Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08) Thermoelectric Hydroelectric Power Plants 99,372 MW Power Plants 130,709 MW 45,748 MW 33,882 MW 31,778 MW 11,425 MW Steam Turbines Gas Turbines Turbogenerators Hydrogenerators 89,035 MW 25,964 MW 106,000 MVA 26,506 MVA
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