5 Things To Know About the 2020 Presidential Primaries - Matt Grossmann

5 Things To Know About the
2020 Presidential Primaries
       Matt Grossmann

5 Things to Know

1. It’s a Sequential, Majoritarian System

2. Media Narratives Self-Perpetuate

3. Wait to Go Negative in Multi-Candidate Races

4. Parties Tried to Repair System They Broke

5. Much Will Be Forgotten By November
                                                  2

Need ½ of Delegates, Too Many Candidates

       From: 538 National Polling Average

Majority Needs Winnowing

From:
Seth
Masket

It’s a Majoritarian System with No Majority

         From: 538 Model

Not Many Historical Examples, All Different

    2004 Dems                                                        2012 Reps

 From: National Polling Averages, RealClearPolitics & Charles Franklin

Iowa & NH: Unrepresentative but Important

                    From: 538 Model & 2008 Exit/Entrance Polls

Can a Majority Develop?
Spring 2019, 1st, 2nd & 3rd Choices
                                                      Head-to-Head Match-Ups

                                      From: Early DataForProgress Poll & new Yahoo/YouGov Poll

#2: Media Narratives Self-Perpetuate

1992 Dem: The Comeback Kid

2004 Dem: The Scream

                                             9

Discovery, Scrutiny, Decline: 2012 Rep
Proportion of Media Coverage, Polls, & Tone of Coverage

                              Rick Perry                   Herman Cain

                     From: The Gamble, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck
                                                                         10

2016: All Trump
Proportion of Media Coverage on Trump

                                                                        11
 From: Identity Crisis, John Sides, Michael Tessler, and Lynn Vavreck

Media Cycles
Instigating event

Signs of rise

Why are they catching on?

Some are raising questions

Signs of fall

What went wrong
                                   12

Media Coverage 2020

                      From: Dominik Stecula

3. Hard to Go Negative in Multi-Candidate Race

Negative more memorable

Reduce favorability for attacked & attacker

Can Help 3rd or 4th Candidate

Attacks Lead to Counterattacks

Candidates Start Positive, More Negative When Behind

Like 2016:
 It Might Be
 Too Late to
 Attack
 Frontrunner
From: Identity Crisis, John
Sides, Michael Tessler, and
Lynn Vavreck

4. Parties Broke & Tried to Repair Their System

                        From: 538, Based on Research in The Party Decides

Endorsements Not Coming, Not Matter?

From: 538, Endorsements Now & Before Iowa

Parties Broke Their System: Money

   Advertising Airings, 2020

           From: 538, Based on Ads Run in 2020

5. Much Will Be Forgotten by November

From: Pew Research
Center, Who Will You Vote
for and Who Will Win

Favorability: No One’s
Popular Anymore

    From: 538, % Favorable - % Unfavorable

Most, But Not All, Will Come Around
                                   2008 General Election Support for Obama by Democratic Primary Vote

79% of 2016 Sanders
supporters voted for
Clinton against Trump

         From: Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus, and Trevor Tompson, “Sour Grapes or Rational Voting?”

Conclusion: 5 Things to Know

1. It’s a Sequential, Majoritarian System

2. Media Narratives Self-Perpetuate

3. Wait to Go Negative in Multi-Candidate Races

4. Parties Tried to Repair System They Broke

5. Much Will Be Forgotten By November
                                                  22

Extra: Ideological Positioning: Will it Matter?

Extra: Only So Many Examples

                      2008 Reps
      2008 Dems

2016 Republicans All Over Again?
Betting Markets: Rubio   Polls: Trump, Carson, or Cruz

Iowa & New Hampshire: Interpretation

                      New
                      Hampshire
                      Performance:
                      Sanders

Betting Markets Sort Of Follow Polls

                     Warren
                     Boom

            Harris
            Boom

2016: Sanders Rise

                     28

2020 Fundamentals & Circumstances

Will Turnout
Matter?

It’s a Majoritarian System